Signgate The Fifth: The Say Anything Stage
Petering out. Over the weekend, nothing much happened. We were already starting to get articles that contain no new NCAA-relevant information and don't stand up to even a cursory fact-check—see Friday's post on claims that TCU's brilliant scheme duped Michigan—and now, uh:
Multiple sources from one Big Ten school told SI that a coach at a different school called them before playing Michigan to warn them about Wolverines ball boys on their sideline listening to play calls and communicating information to the Michigan sideline—holding the football up in one hand to indicate an expected pass, and in the other hand to indicate a run, for instance. (Sources at the school that was warned said they experienced nothing in the game to implicate the Michigan ball boys.)
We're now at the stage where people will say crazy shit to anyone, and that person will just publish it. Sometimes it's without bothering to check the plausibility of such a thing (Dellenger), and sometimes you'll even get a denial and still say "let's do it and be legends," as above. As far as Dellenger goes, his latest is about OSU asking the CFP whether they can scout the other game and getting a "yes," which doesn't do anything but indicate where this is coming from.
Meanwhile, the ball boy claims are part of a Pat Forde article in which he exhorts people to do things they're not allowed to do by NCAA rule…
Harbaugh is almost certain to try to no-comment his way through the press conference Monday, citing the NCAA’s confidentiality dictates during an ongoing investigation. That’s fine. But it seems appropriate for athletic director Warde Manuel—or even president Santa Ono—to step to the lectern Monday and address this.
…and proposes that Michigan self-administer a punishment as a "rogue" program with a smarmy "Any interest in leading here, Michigan?" Yes, I have interest in leading this column into the garbage. The future is now, old man.
[After THE JUMP: the Harbaugh show cause threat]
The non-event. The one thing that tried to happen over the weekend was a Wall Street Journal article claiming that Jim Harbaugh's contract offer had been "rescinded," which is language that should immediately perk your ears up. It is true that Michigan had a contract offer on the table for Harbaugh, and almost certainly true that Jim Harbaugh cannot sign that contract at this instant. Characterizing that as "rescinded" is the way you might put it if you were a bitter old man with an axe to grind and some access to insider information. Plenty of those around these days; some of them are even on the infractions committee.
If you were more even-handed you might characterize such an event as an "obviously mandatory delay," or some such. Webb/Bacon:
Already alluded to this in my tweet last night. But let me co-sign Bacs here by sharing what I reported on TMI last night -- I heard any suggestion that a deal was "rescinded" is categorically false. https://t.co/5wvYVfCie0
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) October 30, 2023
FWIW, this leak was characterized to us as "absolute bullshit."
Speaking of… not often you can put "dunked on by a regent" on the ol' poaster resume, so kudos to this guy:
Hi Buckeye Friend! Hard to do fake emergency meetings during my kids bath time! Can't wait to see you in a few weeks! https://t.co/ethu6FNYhX
— Jordan Acker (@JordanAckerMI) October 29, 2023
The strong impression we have gotten is that there is a 0% chance the University of Michigan self-imposes anything before the end of the 2023 season—they have not even gotten a notice of allegations or their 90-day window to respond—and would immediately head to the courts if any other entity attempted such a stunt.
Provenance. There's no question where this comes from: OSU insider Bill Greene was making dark allusions to it a month before it ever came out. Exactly how things came about and who was involved is an interesting question, because if there's one thing hiring a private investigator invites it's more private investigators. It is a reported fact that there's a firm running this; the main remaining question is how personally involved folks in the OSU program were.
Sam put up a post yesterday that collected the circumstantial evidence against OSU and then provided another couple potential connections before getting into the fact that Christopher Day is a PI in New Hampshire, where Ryan is from. This immediately started a game of paywall telephone that I tried to defuse:
Sam's post is losing contain quickly so let me just point out that he says that it's "unlikely that [Christopher Day] or his firm would’ve conducted this investigation," and everyone seems to think it says "Christopher Day conducted the investigation." https://t.co/sYOVcUBt3U
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) October 29, 2023
Unfortunately, OSU is much better at this than Michigan and is unlikely to have written Ryan Day's brother a big check with "Sign stealing! Go berks!" in the memo. There is not going to be the big reveal here; it'll remain speculation without proof. And even if there was a big reveal, the die is cast in re: NCAA.
It doesn't really matter who, except insofar as it proves Day is shook.
The big question. The NCAA changed their rules this offseason to make it harder for head coaches to dodge responsibility when their underlings break rules. The text of the change:
“NCAA Bylaw 11.1.1, “Head Coach Responsibility,” imposes a presumption of head coach accountability for impermissible acts committed by assistant coaches and administrators within their program.
Saying "I didn't know" is no longer good enough, and the punishment is now mitigatable but draconian:
If there is a Level I or II violation(s) in a sport program, the enforcement staff will charge a head coach responsibility violation at the same level as the underlying violation(s).
Connor Stalions is getting a billion-year show cause and without mitigation the NCAA can just slap that same penalty on Harbaugh. How do you mitigate?
…head coaches must rely upon a three-prong strategy: A demonstration that the coach adequately monitored the activities of employees under their supervision, actively engaged in rules education activities with employees under their supervision, and actively communicated compliance concerns and reported information that could constitute a NCAA compliance issue.
There are a bunch of individual bullet points that can be taken in a coach's favor ("Actively soliciting feedback to determine if compliance systems are functioning properly," etc.) that both links in this section list. The NCAA released a guideline about how they're going to enforce this rule:
First, enforcement will consider factors related to the coaches’ education, monitoring, and communication efforts in deciding whether an 11.1.1 violation exists, and the severity of the violation.
Second, the head coach will have the opportunity to present information to the Committee on Infractions panel demonstrating that the coach satisfied these three areas of obligations.
Finally, the Committee on Infractions Hearing Panel will consider NCAA enforcement’s allegation and the coach’s rebuttal in making its determination as to whether Bylaw 11.1.1 was violated and what the appropriate classification of the penalty should be.
Takeaway: Head coaches will need to commit significant time to not only engaging in the three areas of presumption rebuttal, but also documenting and filing those efforts. It is strongly encouraged that all Division I Head Coaches begin to coordinate the creation of a filing system documenting their efforts, if they have not already.
The bold is mine. That does not sound like an area of strength for an athletic department that's announcing Shemy Shembechler's hire before anyone did a cursory search for racist social media likes. Nor does it sound like something Jim Harbaugh is proactively going to do himself. It's the NCAA, where the rules are made up and don't matter, but in past cases that has leaned towards letting Kansas and Tennessee off. Whatever personal vendettas Jim Harbaugh has racked up in the last decade could be coming due, especially since he's coming off a three-game suspension for what looks like blowing off an NCAA investigation into some secondary violations.
This is new ground for the NCAA; Harbaugh will be the first head coach subject to this rule for a newsworthy scandal-type substance. I would not be surprised if they bomb him, personally, and leave the rest of the program more or less intact. That would take at least a year or two to process, but if Harbaugh gets any NFL offer with that hanging over his head he's going to take it.
About that. I'm not buying this:
The NFL is unlikely to make itself a safe harbor for Harbaugh to escape what could be substantial NCAA discipline, league sources say, raising the strong possibility Harbaugh would need to serve some or all of any possible suspension he could face in college if he returns to the pros.
There isn't a bylaw governing the matter. But sources pointed to former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel as precedent for how the NFL and its teams could handle a college suspension of Harbaugh.
Jim Tressel didn't take a moribund 49ers team to three straight NFC championships. I have heard that all this has made him less attractive to the NFL because it's a reminder of all the Harbaugh Shit you have to put up with when you hire Harbaugh, but the Bears loom as the kind of franchise that's desperate enough to ignore all that.
On campus. There were various confused reports about the NCAA being on campus and meeting with unknown persons. FWIW, we believe they were on campus and met with Santa Ono primarily. (This section is speculative, no insider info present.)
How egregious can it be? Brian Kelly on the whole thing:
"…this isn't the first time we've heard of sign stealing," he said, "whether there is proposed sign stealing or people were buying tickets to other games. This is all part of why this should not even be part of the equation."
Kelly said the tangible effect of stealing signals is debatable. In 32 years of coaching, he said, he has never believed they lost a game because of it.
"I've never come back to the office and go, they got us," he added.
If this is such a tremendous advantage why would the NCAA go thirty years without implementing a quick fix? Why would football coaches—the most paranoid group of professionals anywhere on this earth—not go to un-hackable wristbands? The claims that this is the WORST SCANDAL EVER simply do not align with the behavior of anyone in the sport for the last three decades.
Etc.: Timothy, you gotta chill out about this. "Harbaugh had to know what Stalions had seen in Oxford. The world had to know."
October 30th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
Ryan Day is bitchmade soft.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Ryan Day is the trust fund kid who's daddy gave him a Ferrari that he shows off to all his friends but doesn't drive it because he doesn't know how to.
Then comes Jimmy, the big bad bully. Rolling in with his suped up Range Rover that he worked the past six summers saving up for. Suddenly, everyone loves Jimmy, he's the most popular kid in school.
Now, instead of kids being awed by Day's shiny (and barely used Ferrari), everyone wants to ride in Jimmy's bully mobile and they wonder why Day can't go faster than 35 miles/hour with his Ferrari.
Jealous and emasculated, Ryan Day starts looking into this new car Jimmy got... Turns out, Jimmy forgot to get his car insured and registered. He reports his findings to the DMV and demands they immediately impound his car and revoke his drivers license.
Day, now on pins and needles, waits to see if he can get rid of his bitter rival.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
Meanwhile, Ryan Day's Ferrari is actually a stolen car. As were Day's last three cars. Drug lords were involved along the way.
But as long as the streets are safe from Harbaugh's late-registered SUV . . .
October 30th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
"...In this exploration of stress-induced psychosexual sublimation, I will examine the example of the Michigan football fanbase, whose righteous anger..."
October 30th, 2023 at 7:06 PM ^
Uhhh......Harbaugh fixed up a "Range Rover"? Have you ever been around a gearhead in your life? Harbaugh fixed up a GTO or an old Challenger. Day's dad drives the Range Rover.
October 31st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
I admittedly know nothing about cars. Just trying to make the analogy work lol
October 30th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
How is it that Harbaugh called out Day’s cheating in 2020 on an NCAA call and said there was photographic evidence of a factual practice violation and the NCAA does nothing. Yet, according to research from another board post, Day in response then hired a private investigative firm (his brother or his brother’s friend) to then spy on Michigan, handed the info to the NCAA and the NCAA is all over it. And it’s not even clear its a violation since apparently video can be taken by 3rd parties at a reasonable cost.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Ryan day is absolutely soft but it would have been great if a Michigan investigation got tressel fired in like 2005
October 30th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
I for one, think that the longer this fake stuff goes, it'll be more damning when Ryan Day and his brother are exposed, and piled on, either before, or after the Game. It almost seems like its being set up.
I digress. Heard Bacon and Sam on podcast and hard to believe they suggest that Harbaugh might go to NFL because of it. This I doubt, when everyone knows it was contrived PR.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
Ryan Day; I have never seen a Coach with a great program and exceptional record under so much pressure; Yes, I am wishing that pressure drips down onto the team;
October 30th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
I think it's most likely that Harbaugh leaves if he doesn't feel strongly supported by the AD and the school, whatever happens with the investigation. If he feels like the university backs him up and, for example, goes to bat for him to strongly fight against an unfair penalty, I think he stays.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
We'll see. Even in the universe where none of this happens, I think there's still a good chance he'd leave after this year, especially if he gets the team farther than the last couple of years. He's 60, I think, and he doesn't have that much runway left. He clearly has an NFL itch to scratch.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
Yeah, if he won the NC, I expected him to leave for the NFL before all of this happened.
So given all of that, I like seeing him mad as fuck for the rest of his games in college football. Let's get a National Championship out of it.
October 30th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
I agree with this. That's why the only thing I'm really interested in is Michigan's counter-attack. There's too much treachery here to lie down and take it. I agree that now's not the time for it, but once we weather the storm, I really hope it's a when, not if. Turn the tide and extend Harbaugh.
October 30th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
Harbaughs skin isn't thin. Not gonna uproot his family just from perceived lack of AD support. Plus he probably has the influence to push out the AD if he wanted to.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
It seems unlikely that Day and his neophyte PI brother are orchestrating this alone. The way the PR has been parlayed to inflict maximum damage suggests to me someone who knows what they are doing is leading the orchestra.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Perhaps, Gene Smith before he steps away from his AD position at OSU?
October 30th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
You know the PI firm can hire a PR firm, right?
October 31st, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
Yes, that would mean that they weren’t doing it alone.
October 30th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
No one knows, including Sam, JUB, Brian, or anyone else connected to the contract whether Harbaugh is staying or going, except Harbaugh. It is all speculation. If Harbaugh gets hammered by NCAA and if UM does not fight it, he might go. I am speculating here just like everyone else. I say "if UM does not fight it" because Ono is a wildcard here. He has been here almost a year now. He has a chance to support Harbaugh. He was pretty new when Burger issue broke. Not anymore. I am hopeful he will do something.
The other possibility that has not been considered is Harbaugh fighting any potential penalties on his own. You never know what he will do.
Ultimately, I am hoping Harbaugh fights any penalty that NCAA levies on him and take it and leave for NFL. He is a fighter and I wouldn't put it past him to stick around and fight.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
cool beans. a bit concerned how Signgate the First said nothing of note would happen but now it is Harbaugh might get the book thrown at him
October 30th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Much respect for Brian obviously, but I'm not buying any large penalty for Harbaugh when Stalions' rule violation still seems firmly in a grey area. I doubt we'll get off scot free, but anything serious strikes me as fertile ground for a lawsuit given how unclear the rule is. There's still a reasonable implication that it stops at in-person scouting by staff members, and Harbaugh and others could easily show compliance by verifying that those staff members were at the Michigan game. Now, I could easily see Harbaugh saying "F this" given the annoyance and the possible lack of support from higher ups at the University. But I doubt that it would be anything forced.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
The issue is that it does not sound like the program is using the “gray area defense,” so it is possible and even likely that Harbaugh and the AD already have divergent interests.
The initial sign-gate takes from the Blog-guys were far too rosy. They were correct that all of this is top tier-bullshit but were incorrect in that this could have a serious impact on the program, Harbaugh, or both.
Harbaugh’s best course of action right now, IMO, is to win the whole damn thing and then bounce.
Feel bad for him. I don’t think he knew about this shit and would have stopped it immediately if he did.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Yeah I'm with you there, the school doesn't seem to be on board with the grey area defense and that may be convenient for them. I just meant it from a technical standpoint and if Harbaugh/Tom Mars wanted to challenge it.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Yeah I think the school is fine rolling with the rogue-actor defense, and I think that is really what this was. How much does that help Harbaugh? I mean, I know how the rule is written but if he did not know and had no obvious reason to know that is the strongest mitigation there is out there.
I say this with the strong belief that the school is making a mistake by not going with the grey zone defense. I think they can make a strong case that no rule was violated.
I also think it is very short sighted and stupid for the NCAA not to just tell Michigan to knock it off and move on. They are encouraging programs to use law-fare against each other and also creating the impression that it will ultimately be the NCAA who “decides” who can win and who can’t. This will ultimately only alienate college football fans.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
I hope they are trying to thread the needle with a “rogue actor” defense that would let them can Stalions (a loose cannon they want gone) while insulating the rest of the program/staff. If they can’t get the NCAA to accept that type of “plea deal”, they ought to go full-bore on “gray area”.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
The rogue actor defense could thread the needle for the program, but not for Harbaugh.
But ultimately the NCAA has to decide if they want to hammer Michigan and lose a lot of fan interest in the process. I can only speak for myself but if they impose stiff sanctions against Michigan I will stop watching the next day. Also, Michigan is the primary bread winner for Big Noon Saturday. They are going to lose a lot of eyeballs for CFB if they do this.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
I love Michigan, but we're not irreplaceable. No one school is.
October 30th, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^
I respectfully disagree with you on this. The Big 10 just laned a huge TV deal based on the ratings of the conference's TV ratings.
The TV ratings by team has Ohio State at 1 and Michigan at 3, and I can imagine that the networks that just paid all of that money for those ratings are going to let the NCAA kill the viewership of either of those teams. I wouldn't be surprised if the networks put their foot down about whatever punishment they want to give Harbaugh due to his eccentricities driving up interest to non-Michigan fans.
I would bet the networks are panicking over this more than the University of Michigan is. This is just my opinion based on how the almighty dollar drives results.
October 30th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
I agree we’re not irreplaceable, but who is left to replace us? You think Sparty fans are going to watch in larger number if UM fans leave?
October 30th, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
Some would say they have their thumb on the scale and I would counter they have their Bum (JS) on the scale.
October 30th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
I say that the entire SEC has people scouting at other games. And no we should not admit anything, because it's a sloppy rule that's unenforced until NCAA trying to make example here. Fuck them. I'm not one to cheat but when it's lax like this and ambiguous then the fault lies on the NCAA.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
I don’t think you roll out the grey area defense at this stage. If you are claiming and believe it’s one bad actor/lone wolf, then you can’t say you didn’t know anything about it and simultaneously know enough about it that it’s a grey area.
Right now you say “we are surprised by this, it looks like it was effectively one staffer and we are determined to fully investigate.”
October 31st, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Certainly you can use the "gray area" and "lone wolf" defenses at the same time. Both seem to be true. Stalions was acting on his own, and he believed that he was within the rules because, by the letter of the rules, he was.
Was it poor judgement on Stalions's part to pursue an edgy policy for such limited gains as the team got? Absolutely. But it is certainly not against NCAA rules to exercise bad judgement.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
One should never play their full hand out the gate when getting into this type of negotiation. Save some ammo for if/when things escalate. It would be a mistake for Michigan to come out with this position now.
I’m sure a lawyer at NCAA is doing a deep dive into the currently written rules and will write an internal report on their exposure here (many outside commentators have already analyzed this and found real gray areas).
A settlement where both parties can agree to move on with both saving the most face *should* be able achievable.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
I think it’s pretty clear that harbaughs weirdness leads to some bad hiring decisions. We have durkin, who turned out to be such a maniac his culture got a kid killed, dudek who was both bad at his job and also enough of a twat to go scorched earth in an industry where connections are everything, the racist bo narcissism hire, Weiss who was weird enough that no recruits liked him and engaged in crimes that the fbi is involved in, and now stallions. At some point it becomes clear that maybe some of the blame for all of these things should fall on him a little. Now is it stupid that this is the reason it might come down on him? Sure. But there’s been enough missteps that harbaugh has to share some of the blame for this situation
October 31st, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Is it even a “grey area” defense? Once you dig into the details, it’s pretty clear the rules are being misapplied here because OMG sign stealing is bad. I’d characterize it more as an “it’s complicated” defense.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
October 30th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
I think it all comes down to support from Warde and Ono. If the NCAA tries to throw the book at Harbaugh, UM could fight it on the vague language of the NCAA bylaws. Also the rule was put in after these potential violations started. The program would be smart to be cooperative right now especially if it was confined to Stalions and they have compliance in place (which I am worried they do not as well). But if NCAA tries to come with significant penalties then it's up to Warde and Ono to fight it. I'm worried they will not. I think all Harbaugh wants is to feel supported and wanted by the administration.
As an aside, I wonder if Stalions would fight his show cause on his own through the legal system considering the grey area of the rules.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
As an aside, I wonder if Stalions would fight his show cause on his own through the legal system considering the grey area of the rules.
Why is it that "a billion year show cause" is a foregone conclusion for Stalions? If it truly is a gray area and not explicitly against the bylaws, how does that make sense?
October 30th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
We have decided Stalions is the bad guy. We arent sure why but the media has still affected us enough to believe this. 100k fans and a national tv audience but this guy is taping the ultra private sidelines. He truly isnt the hero of this story but I think weve let the OSU pushed narrative cloud our judgement on how terrible he actually is.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
Allows Michigan *AND* NCAA to save face.
October 30th, 2023 at 9:20 PM ^
Buckeye Cris Carter agrees with this concept.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
It would be premature for UM/AD/Football Program to be floating any "gray area" arguments at this point -- either publicly or privately. A key element in any successful negotiation strategy is to always present yourself as more reasonable/conciliatory/moral than your adversary. It's only after a formal allegation gets made that the school should contemplate pushing back. They are playing this the right way for the time being.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
This holds true most often, unless you are well aware the other party is acting with the primary purpose of damaging you. In that instance, you bomb back immediately and before they get any inkling that you may lay down. I am not saying that is the case here but you can inflict a lot of damage on yourself by always giving adversarial parties the benefit of the doubt as far as their intentions.
October 31st, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Perhaps. But the "other party" in this case isn't the media blowhards or even the conspirators behind the private investigation firm. It's the NCAA, which hasn't yet commented publicly beyond making it clear that it is taking the allegations seriously. Michigan/Harbaugh is taking the wise course of saying that it/he takes the matter seriously too. Only after the NCAA makes clear exactly how bad it thinks whatever it is that went on is there the opportunity to calibrate a response to the specifics of the allegations. This is still a moving target.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Perhaps it doesn’t make sense strategically for UM to raise a grey area defense at this point. But why aren’t others like Michigan Insider and MGoBlog making the argument for them? The argument can be done in ways that acknowledge nuance. There has to be a legal affairs reporter somewhere who would love to dig into the rules and scoop the story.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
This is all click driven. Parsing out rules to see if there is was an actual violation would work against clicks.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Am I the only one who thinks the first exception in that rule is an incredibly low bar to clear. I mean making your employees take a yearly training on NCAA compliance and the rules could be enough to show you were stressing the importance of following all the rules to your staff.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^
How do we know they don't?
It's common in American law to Impose an obligation on an organization to be accountable for any actions reasonably within the scope of employment of an employee. It's less common to impose that obligation personally on the CEO. Yes, the CEO has oversight over the organization, but it's uncommon for either the law or a fact-finder to penalize the CEO personally absent proof of personal knowledge.
Bottom line, although the NCAA is far from consistent, if the facts ultimately remain where they appear to be--rogue junior analyst acting independently without the knowledge of coaches--I suspect the NCAA, too, will ultimately (put a finger to the wind and) decide to impose a light penalty on the team. Don't forget that the NCAA is on very shaky ground regarding its continued oversight of major college football anyway. Absent more damning evidence, the worst-case scenarios are just that.
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