Will Rudock get drafted?
So I guess the fact that this is not a rhetorical question is nice.
I've seen several comments that suggest people on this board think that Rudock will get drafted. I... definitely wouldn't put myself in that camp, but the fact that this is even a discussion should raise the interest of every HS QB out there.
I'm not even sure that he gets signed as an UDFA. If his entire college career played out like the last two weeks, sure. But I can't see him being in the discussion. Hats off to Rudock and Harbaugh for even eliciting this post.
I'm just curious, are the people calling for Rudock to the NFL part of the delusional fanbase that has a very short memory? Or am I underselling his potential?
November 17th, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
If he wins the conference he will, in the later rounds. Winning out will require a VERY solid level of QB play, against higher competition. Scouts would look at his last 5 weeks/winning attitude and like him as a backup QB. Pats could use another backup to compete with Garropolo, last time they took a late rounder from Michigan it went well.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
Jake Rudock = Tom Brady
Which super model does Jake get?
November 17th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
They send a catalog.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
GREAT!
Now MGoBlog will be down again...
November 17th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
Not Kathy Ireland. VS sends me so many spam emails that I'm pretty sure they'll take any pageviews they can get.
Seriously, I buy stuff from there once or twice per year for my wife. Do they really have to send two emails each day? Who the fuck buys that many bras?
November 17th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
Sometimes the journey IS the destination, my friend.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
was the winningest QB at UGA and still couldn't get drafted. Winning conference doesn't mean shit to NFL scouts.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
Considering Michigan would need solid QB play to win the conference, I think they'll give a shit.
November 17th, 2015 at 7:59 PM ^
Not always, but in your example I think David Greene just didn't mean shit to NFL scouts. Rudock will have a year of Harbaugh coaching, solid numbers, high IQ, he will have captained a Michigan offense to a 11-2 record a year after being completely inept, he will have put up bonkers numbers for 2 weeks followed by victories over 3 top 10 defenses, one of which belongs to the defending National Champions.
I am not saying that winning your conference guarantees that you will get drafted. Rather, what I am saying is that what will be required of Rudock for us to win the Big Ten, combined with his body of work to this point, will be enough for some team to take a chance on him in the later rounds.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
Pick 199
November 17th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
That's how I see him unless he develops that deep ball. Maybe it's a confidence thing, but it looks like he has to load up every time he wants to go long.
He'll end up in training camp for someone, but I have a hard time seeing an NFL team using a draft choice on a guy to groom into a backup QB role.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
We saw what he did against Rutgers and Indiana, but what can he do against real defenses? As others have said, wait until the season is over and then you'll have a better answer.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
If he lights the world on fire the last couple weeks then maybe someone takes a 6-7th rounder on him, but I think he will for sure be brought into a camp at least, based on the Harbaugh factor alone and the way Harbaugh talks about him. There's no harm to a team that at least brings him into camp to see what he's got.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
Northwestern's Trevor Siemian got drafted in the 7th round last year, and he's the Broncos' backup right now with Peyton Manning hurt.
His numbers in 2014:
58% completions, 2214 yards, 7 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
So yeah, I think Rudock will get a shot somewhere. I don't know if he'll be drafted, but someone will pick him up as an UDFA.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
And less help around him. Siemian, in my opinion, flashed a lot more than Rudock has.
In my opinion, Rudock doesn't have the upside to warrent a late round pick. He's not exceptionally accurate. He doesn't have a great arm. He doesn't complete a lot of passes. He's pretty much an average college QB. That's good for Michigan, I don't think it's enough to get drafted.
Guys like Boykin, Golson, and Sudfeld are likely late round picks to UFAs, and I'd take each of those guys based on their potential over Rudock, who I think is pretty much a finished product right now.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
I mean, I don't really think he'll get drafted, either, which is why I said I thought he'd be an UDFA.
But Rudock doesn't have a ton around him, either. He doesn't have a good running game, and his receivers are mediocre. Chesson had a breakout game, but otherwise, he has been rather inconsistent. Darboh is not much more than a possession guy. Jake Butt is a guy with good hands and a big catching radius, but he's not really a big-play guy.
Both guys are playing/played without elite talent around them.
Also, Rudock went from 59% to 62% to now 65% completions. That's a pretty good completion percentage.
P.S. Golson just got benched at FSU. I don't think he's anything special.
November 17th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
I mean, yeah, we've seen some great catches (Darboh's one-hander, Jake Butt's double-covered TD against Utah), but your statement implies that other quarterbacks don't have players making great catches. Rudock is not unique in that respect. Darboh and Chesson have dropped their fair share of passes. If you're going to knock down his completion percentage because of a few good catches, you also have to knock down other QBs completion percentages for the good catches that their receivers have made. If we assume that 2% of completions are because of great plays by the receivers, then every QB needs to have his completion percentage knocked down by 2%.
So...that's not a very good argument.
November 17th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^
It doesn't tell the whole story because anybody can complete at least 60% of his passes throwing screens and short passes like Rudock has done this season. It is not a good measure of accuracy.
There is a reason why NFL scouts don't bother with the completion percentage and chart their passes (behind LOS, short, medium and long as well as left, middle and right) and determine if a QB is accurate. If a player drops an accurate pass, it doesn't count for their completion percentage but does count for accuracy. Likewise, if a QB throws a perfect strike and a WR is interfered with and can't come up with the ball, it count as an accurate pass. If a QB left him out to dry and WR get hit hard by a S in the middle of the field, it count as a completion but not an accurate pass because the QB failed to protect his WR. If a QB throws a ball only a WR can get it (like low and away from defender) and WR can't get it, it counts as an accurate pass.
Ideally, you want QB to be accurate at 80% in behind LOS, 75% at short passes, 60% in intermediate passes and 50% at deep passes.
Rudock hasn't been accurate this season which is a fact.
November 17th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^
Oh...so you're changing the argument.
You're saying that he HAS been accurate, but he has struggled to be accurate with his downfield throws.
That's an interesting way to argue.
Anyway, I might suggest that an issue with accuracy downfield is timing with his receivers. That seems to have been improving over the past couple games. So maybe it just took him a while to sync up with his receivers. He didn't seem to have those same types of issues at Iowa, possibly because he had been playing there for two years before he started his first game.
November 17th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
...and now you're just flat-out wrong again. He's #30 in the country in completion percentage.
November 17th, 2015 at 9:13 PM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 7:53 AM ^
So he's inaccurate, but our receivers - as we all know - are extremely awesome superstars, so he completes a lot of passes. Gotcha.
November 17th, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 6:09 PM ^
w/in the next two, hopefully three conference games. If, in fact, there is a third game that alone would reflect the fact he's been playing at a very high level. He appears to carry a very thin skeletal frame which may scare some away but he gets up repeatedly from every hit he takes and there have been more than a few.
Calls will be made to Jim due to his history in the league and I have no doubt if JH thinks he is NFL caliber, the message will resonate through the league as soon as, if not already done, JH passes his appraisal along to his brother. He is fully aware of Jake's physical and mental prowess and he would do nothing to slow his path toward becoming a surgeon unless he unequivocally knows he will make enough money to defray the cost of his medical school. The man has clout and we all know that. As goofy as he is, JH is recognized for not only what he does with his qbs but for recognizing the limitations and strengths prior to even taking on the task of mentoring a player in the art of this all important position. If he does not believe it, same will be said to Jake and to NFL employees, and if he does opposite will be relayed. He is not merely stroking JR's ego for the stretch run. His remarks have been based, as they should be, on what he has seen transpire in recent weeks. And as good as that pass was in the second OT, the fourth down pass leading to us being in that position, will go much further than the one that ended it.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
He's almost certainly an UFA.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
I've kind of wondered about this. If John stays in the NFL, does he take a flier on guys like Kovacs and Molk? Meaning great character guys without all the measurables. I could see Jim giving his brother a lot of insight about his team. That being said, I think Jim would also advertise his players to all the teams. It will be interesting to see if some of these borderline guys with good locker room presence end up as Ravens instead of undrafted.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
I seem to recall he wanted to go to med school, does he go for the NFL if his chances are good? Med school is a huge time commitment in your life.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
unless he's been playing through a shoulder injury.
I can see hooking up as an undrafted free agent with someone. The other thing people need to think about is Rudock has been pretty open about becoming a surgeon, you can't exactly put that kind of career ambition off for too long by chasing an NFL dream.
Maybe he cashes a few checks as a clipboard holder to pay for his med school.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/so…
Cook's awful game against Maryland caused him to slip below Sudfeld. The top Big 10 QBs are (national rank, name):
38, Sudfeld
40, Cook
46, Cardale
48, Rudock
60, Beathard (maybe Ferentz made the wrong decision)
70, Armstrong, Jr.
73, Stave
I know teams don't draft based on national rankings. That said, I wonder how many QBs get drafted every year, how many of the QBs ranked ahead of Rudock are declaring for the draft, how many are pro-style QBs, etc. etc. I would say his chances of getting drafted are slim, but I can see a team inviting him to training camp. He doesn't have the big arm or size the NFL wants, but he's shown the ability to learn a complex offense, he doesn't make mistakes very often, and he's a competent game manager. He could have a 10 year career as a backup QB if that's the route he wanted to go. He'd probably make more money over the course of his career as a doctor. At any rate, it's nice to be in a position to make those choices.
Yep, the top rated Big Ten QB is Sudfeld at 38. Everybody say it with me,
BIG TTTTEEEENNNNN!!!!
November 17th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
Passer rating is especially misleading in college football, where there are such a wide variety of offensive systems. Passer rating stats will inevitably be dominated by spread QBs who throw a ton of short screens, since their competion percentage will be higher and their interception percentage will be lower. Michigan's scheme is anything but - very few screens and a lot of 10-20 yard downfield passes.
I'm not saying Rudock is or isn't an NFL prospect, but comparing his prospects to a guy like Sudfeld based on college passer rating is pretty meaningless.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
If he plays well in our bowl game and has good measureables in the combine I could see him going in the 4-6 round range. I could see Rudock being an excellent NFL backup, where is main jobs would be to watch film and play in limited opportunities.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
NFL people respect Harbaugh. Unless he is awful these last 3-5 games, someone will at the least take a late round flyer on him!
November 17th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
I'm genuinely curious why this prompted your first post in 8 months.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
but he could get drafted at 6th/7th round at best. UDFA is basically camp body while 6th/7th round is developmental 3rd string QB.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
Both UDFAs and 6th/7th round picks have an uphill battle to make the roster. 7th round picks are basically UDFA-quality; they're just players who the team doesn't want to compete to sign. When it comes to QBs, especially, I don't see a big difference between the two.
November 17th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^