Will the B1G East be decided in October?
Mathematically, the East likely won't be decided until The Game is played 26 November (with a nod to PSU@MSU that day). Still, there are 5 Saturdays in October. The top-4 East contenders play 4 games in October and 2 of the other 3 contenders are scheduled that month for each team. They also each play a reasonably tough crossover and all 4 take their byes.
UM - @IA, @IN, PSU, bye, MSU Prediction (4-0 or 3-1)
OH - RU, @MSU, bye, IA, @PSU prediction (4-0 or 3-1)
PSU - NW, bye, @UM, MN, OH prediction (3-1 or 2-2)
MSU - @MD, OH, WI, bye, @UM prediction (2-2 or 1-3)
UM will be favored in each game, but I hate Kinnick for good reason. Harbaugh is 0-1 thanks to 2016's torture. UM has 1 win there in their last 6 chances. UM is only 12-7-1 there dating back to Bo's 1969 squad. Weird lives there and always has. As it does in Bloomington these days. Harbaugh has the only L there since 1988, and also has two OT wins there to boot. I expect UM to beat them and to beat Sparty but it gets unpredictable against those teams. UM may be undefeated, but October could easily hold an L.
It's hard to see OH losing any of their games, but home field matters and going to Happy Valley and EL will be tough. Throw in IA being IA in the shoe and who knows? PSU is lucky to only travel to A2 so that might be their only L. Even in Happy Valley the Buckeyes should probably be too much for Frames, but I hope not. Sparty's secondary vs. MD should be hilarious. Too bad MD D vs. Sparty O will just make that game a shootout in College Park. Stroud to JSN will be even more hilarious. Throw in the WI defense, and that feels like at least 2 Ls but could reasonably be 3 in the month of October for Tuck.
Anyone going 4-0 in Oct will be in the driver's seat or could even have it wrapped up if the other 3 stumble badly. Outside of October, PSU opens with @PU. OH gets WI (damn, Wiscy's schedule is tough) at home in Sep. Sparty gets a home date with MN to open their B1G slate. UM has a Nov home game vs NE. Sh*t happens in college football so maybe one of those games matters, but the contenders should win all of them. That cannot be said about October which may prove to be the biggest factor in how the B1G East is won.
Go Blue!
August 22nd, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
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edit: Oops, wrong thread for this link, but I'm leaving it here anyway as a REMINDER that today is the final day to order the combo print & digital editions of HTTV plus limited edition "Hurdle the Fools" t-shirt.
Please consider showing your love and appreciation for all that Seth and Co. have done to keep this place running plus the recent renewed involvement of Brian.
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edit#2: What the hell, I've now decided to go all in and post this link plus the picture below, here and in a few other threads.
Remember, if you want this fine package Seth has put together, today is it!
August 22nd, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Welp. This worked on me. I was planning on getting it and told myself I have until Monday. Still never pulled the trigger. Saw Rob post a few places and just bought it.
August 22nd, 2022 at 6:08 PM ^
Thank you, 'MaizeNBlueTexan'!
August 22nd, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
Big Ten cannot be decided in October unless you believe Michigan will lose two games.
August 22nd, 2022 at 3:41 PM ^
Or OSU loses twice which....ain't happening, even if we all really want it to. Very hard to see Sparty turn around what was an absolute beat down last year.
August 22nd, 2022 at 3:53 PM ^
30 for 30:
Five Saturdays in October - The Unforgettable True Story of the Year the Big Ten East was Decided, on Five Saturdays, in October.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:08 PM ^
Sparty 0-4 in October? That would be priceless.
Am I evil? Yes I fucking am-Metallica
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
Definitely possible. They might be underdogs in all four. That would be...excellent.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
I've seen so much hand wringing about Iowa this year, and it has me truly confused. This is the same Iowa team that snuck into the Conference Champ game last year and needed a historical turnover rate by it's defense in the lesser side of the conference and a injured PSU QB to then enjoy getting curb stomped by our team at a neutral site. I am remembering all of that correctly right?
This is also the same Iowa that loses it RB and Best O-Line member, still has the lesser Ferentz kneecaping the offense and hasn't upgraded dramatically at any position.
We are still bringing 2 starting QBs and arguably one of the top 5 offenses in the nation to that game right?
I understand Kinnick is the Bermuda Triangle of college football stadiums, but I have to imagine the line for this game will be UM -13.5 or worse (better? not sure which way that would go).
What am I missing? I know historically Iowa is kind of like Indiana where they always play us tough, but man I just don't see how this Iowa team keeps this game "scary" close. Genuinely asking, am I missing something?
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
The 2016 IA team was 8-5. They lost to an FCS team (#1 though). They had lost WI and PSU in the preceding weeks - both of whom were handled (and destroyed) by UM. College kids do unpredictable stuff and in some places it seems to happen more often. Kinnick is one of those places for UM. On paper, this is a W and maybe an easy one. UM has lost a number of games like this there.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
Do you know what the line was in 2016?
21.5 !!!!!!!!
More than three touchdowns. And then...that happened. And we're all traumatized.
So yes, Michigan is a much better team. But...Kinnick.
That said, Michigan can afford to go 2-1 against Iowa, MSU and PSU. And Iowa is the most acceptable of the three to lose because it's a road non-division game but we'd obviously like to keep the margin for error further into October if needed.
August 23rd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
I hear you, but we had 1 QB in that season and he got hurt in that game. Maybe we are counting that as part of the Kinnick curse, but I think we, on offense at least, are much more dynamic now.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^
You are talking about Neutral Field or Home Iowa. We play Kinnick Iowa this year. Historically, these are two very different teams for Michigan.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
Because Iowa plays incredibly great defense and fucking coaches freak out in that environment and run the ball up the middle into an eight man box on 1st down and it makes their fans go more nuts so they do it again in 2nd down and it makes their fans go more nuts and then they throw on 3rd and 12 with fans going nuts and bad shit happens….was that my outside voice
August 22nd, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
2016 Iowa game included 5 insanely great punts if I remember correctly. Add to that great defense against limited play book and look out. We are on the road and the crowd is crazy.
This year we have an O line that is way ahead of that year. But hey, turnovers are always likely.
I say its time to exercise the demons just like Wiscy last year.
August 22nd, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
I saw the line @ M -4.5 earlier this week.
If you're laying 13 I'd suggest getting on that, as you'd have a 2-score spread in your perceived line vs. current Vegas odds.
Me? I'm not touching any line at Kinnick. Not surprised at all if we're in a 15-11 sludgefart early Q4 after leading the nation in offensive efficiency the first 4 weeks.
August 22nd, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
It’s not just us. Let’s never forget that this happened:
55-24. It’s actually quite fun to reminisce about that game.
August 22nd, 2022 at 9:15 PM ^
Mazi is going to destroy their replacement center and either guard. Michigan wins by at least 2 tds if it’s a day game. Night game closer but still a 7-10 pt game for the good guys.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
No, silly.
November 26.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:30 PM ^
EDIT
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:37 PM ^
Of course, I don't disagree. It should come down to The Game. But if we're wrong (and in CFB we often are in August) October will have had a lot to say about it.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
Both teams will enter The Game undefeated
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
It will not be won in October, but will be lost in October for at least one of those teams. The East will be a war of attrition this year, as it is most years.
August 22nd, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
THIS is the answer. Division titles cannot be won prior to November, but they can be lost prior to November.
Since the East division started (2014), there's no year where the Champ was crowned prior to November.