Wild Speculation: BigTen looking at FSU & Miami
Greg McElroy thinks the BigTen is not done expanding and the wild speculation from SI is that the BigTen would get the most bang for its buck by getting into Florida via Miami and FSU from the ACC. Both schools are allegedly looking behind the scenes to jump ship.
Wouldn't there be a footprint limit due to the distance between the Midwest, Los Angeles, and Florida - especially for nonrevenue sports? Unless the TV deals make it worthwhile.
How many heavyweights can one conference have before their all destroying each other's record?
To hell with ‘em too
NOW THIS is the best post on this thread.
Notre Dame should be a conference of one- The Big Turd
Once the ACC topples (and it is wobbling) ND will have to choose between the SEC and B1G as independence will not be a choice. ND is prideful enough to actually do the wrong thing and choose the SEC.
Michigan taught ND the game. Michigan boycotted them to being invited to the league so I understand the historical angst. The ND culture is hostile toward the thought of it but the B1G is win win and the SEC is an academic sacrifice ND cant afford.
The biggest obstacle the ACC teams have is that terrible contract they are in until 2036. It was a decent idea at the time, and it is working, to keep the conference from being poached. But its such a bad deal now compared to the SEC/B1G. I could see the ACC schools working some back channels to see if they'd be accepted into an conference. And once they all/most have a home, the conference disolving making the deal go away. Thats assuming that the ESPN deal is conference specific and not team specific.
Yeah if enough of those ACC teams find a new home, the contract essentially gets thrown out the window.
Say hypothetically: Pitt, UNC, GT and Virginia all move to the B1G. Clemson, Miami, FSU, and Duke go SEC. How much legal power does the remaining conference really have there?
I think this scenario is more likely than the other involving Miami and FSU regardless how much those people really wish and hope I'm wrong. Wish and hope all you can but, it's not happening.
I'm not convinced independence won't be a choice. Notre Dame's next media deal with NBC is expected to be $60-75 million a year. That's not quite as much as the Big Ten/SEC, but far more than the rest of the Power 5 and more than enough to stay competitive with the Big Ten/SEC. And with the expanded playoff, playoff access is unlikely to be an issue.
ND alumni welcoming being part of the SEC?
Yes - scheduling games against MSU (Mississippi State), Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky - and, of course - their former coach at LSU. It doesn't sound like the ND alumni would "fit in and embrace" rivalries with those institutions.
It's a blend of academics - athletics - and prestige. I don't imagine the alums welcoming an association with many members of that conference.
I would love Notre Dame joining but until they're forced to join a conference it won't happen. Notre Dame wants to play games on their terms, dipping its little leprechaun toes in conferences like the ACC or BIG10 in hockey but when it comes to football they know they would never win this conference.
They haven't done well against OSU, lost to Brady Hoke led Michigan for God sake. Wouldn't beat a PSU team and have struggled with MSU. Then mix in Wisconsin, Iowa Nebraska, USC and UCLA. This is the real reason they haven't joined the conference, its not about their tv contract they would receive BIG10 tv money, shared money from all the BIG10 bowl teams.
Notre Dame is Chicken Shit, they couldn't schedule Army, Navy, Air Force, Boston College etc. Anymore to guarantee wins. They would insist on being put in the West Div. And crossovers with Rutgers and Maryland and we would cave to their demands. Fuck ND
RichRod (of all coaches) was 2-1 against Notre Dame. That might be the most embarrassing stretch of the rivalry for them.
RichRod has the best winning percentage against Notre Dame of any our coaches since the rivalry resumed in the 70s, which is an insane, true, and highly misleading stat
"It seems they are looking for a good athletics and academics balance for expansion", who does this "seems" to? You? The first and second criteria are academics and media market and somewhere down the line is athletics.
"Both are in good markets, but can't compete with North Florida and Miami-Dade area". Exactly where do you get your information or is it just a guess? Miami is 28th on the list, at least half the schools I mentioned are ahead of them and all belong to the AAU.
I can't figure out if people just hope that these prerequisites are make believe so they just ignore that they exist because they really want Miami or FSU in but it doesnt matter how much you wish if they dont qualify.
I believe FSU is NOT a member of the AAU.
Yet. On their way there.
Is FSU a solid academic school? It feels like a closer academic and cultural fit for the SEC (I mean that in the most derogatory way possible) though I don't know maybe UF wouldn't allow it.
Check out yesterday's Roundtable thread for some details on FSU's efforts in recent years to seriously raise their academic profile. They are not a member of the AAU but are on their way; apparently it's not your grandpa's FSU anymore.
https://mgoblog.com/content/wtka-roundtable-5182023-man-orange#
The new & improved FSU...now featuring 25% more school!
Free shoe / crablegs university!
Smartflation
Smartification
According to the FSU Office of Research website, their total research expenditures for 2021 were $368 million.
According to U-M, its research expenditures for 2022 were $1.71 billion.
FSU has some catching up to do as a research institution.
FSU is a really good school, yes.
In terms of UF v. FSU, UF benefits more from FSU than vice versa. It’s a weird situation where UF is the better school academically and in most athletics, but UF is the one that brings the MSU dynamic to the rivalry. It’s weird.
Made a long post in another thread on this subject yesterday, but FSU is currently the number 19 US News public uni, ranked ahead of all but 5 B1G schools. UF is number 5. Both schools made huge leaps in the last decade. FSU faculty would dearly love to create a barrier to further depredations by the state legislature and move to the B1G. FSU is also a perennial top 5-10 Learfield cup candidate, with good to great sports across the board. I'm not sure people are prepared for the effects that UCLA and FSU in the Big Ten would have on a lot of sports, but they'd fast be contending in many of them. Miami and FSU could be a huge boost to baseball.
EDIT: Miami is way down the list of all schools, at 55. But that puts it ahead of all but six B1G schools, at a quick glance. There's a lot of regional chauvinism, and ignorance, about how schools are seen--in a shifting landscape--but the B1G, despite the AAU status (which is about a certain kind of research) is not necessarily all that. Rust Belt decline and the rise of the air conditioning corridor have had some say in that.
This is a really great post - thank you! And this (“There's a lot of regional chauvinism, and ignorance, about how schools are seen”) is 100% true about this thread and a lot of the commentary on this topic.
Good to hear that FSU has improved. When I lived there, it was not even up to MSU standards. Times must have changed significantly.
MSU (at #77) would be a mid-tier SEC school, from what I can see, lagging Georgia, Vandy, UF, and Texas A&M; it is still not as shabby as some would like to believe, despite drastic cuts going back to 2008. USC and UCLA would lag only Northwestern in current rankings.
We know that the rankings are hugely problematic; lots of things to resent about them. But perhaps they remain meaningful in a shorthandy way for these purposes.
https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities
Yes, I was not taking a shot at MSU there, just trying to give some perspective. 20-25 years ago FSU was basically just a large party school with a nice campus (obviously painting with a broad brush here) and calling it okay was probably apt if not generous. I would not call FSU a really good school right now but it seems they have definitely improved and maybe would not be an academic outlier (which may or may not matter at this point).
Better rankings for academic impact are QS or Times Higher Education rankings.
Big10 in QS World University Rankings 2023 (i.e., entire world):
25 Michigan
32 Northwestern
44 UCLA
83 Wisconsin
85 Illinois
93 Penn State
129 Purdue
134 USC
140 Ohio State
159 Michigan State
164 Maryland
185 Minnesota
267 Rutgers
(296 Miami)
339 Indiana
467 Iowa
(511 Florida State)
651 Nebraska
SEC:
72 Texas
164 Texas A&M
188 Florida
199 Vanderbilt
511 Missouri
601 Tennessee
601 Georgia
701 South Carolina
701 Kentucky
701 Oklahoma
801 Mississippi
801 LSU
1001 Auburn
1001 Alabama
1001 Miss. State
1001 Arkansas
Top US schools for comparison:
1 MIT
3 Stanford
5 Harvard
6 Caltech
10 Chicago
13 Penn
16 Princeton
18 Yale
20 Cornell
21 Columbia
24 Johns Hopkins
25 Michigan -- Go Blue!
Nebraska, WTF #651!!! Still middle of the pack vs sec schools, but still, WTF!
Nebraska's mom must be so proud!
It's ranking of universities in all countries, so not as bad as it might seem.
Also, that is just QS rankings. Times has them at, well . . . 401. But it's a bit better.
One of the “problems” with rankings like this one is that they are largely just based on scientific research, right?
These rankings are based on a bunch of stuff. Reputation surveys count for a lot, as well as how many citations of staff's papers, but includes industry income, percent of staff with doctorates, student:faculty ratio, and lots of other stuff.
Not sure of your question, but it's not just science fields where folks are looking at those metrics -- it's all fields.
All great points but this academic list does not mean a school is automatically invited to the AAU. There are currently 63 universities.
From the AAU website:
Our member universities earn the majority of competitively awarded federal funding for research that improves public health, seeks to address national challenges, and contributes significantly to our economic strength, while educating and training tomorrow’s visionary leaders and innovators.
AAU member universities collectively help shape policy for higher education, science, and innovation; promote best practices in undergraduate and graduate education, and strengthen the contributions of leading research universities to American society.
I dont disagree with anything you say but membership to the AAU is not simply academic based. It's not like you make the top 100 list and you are now invited.
Read an article yesterday and it seems like the Big 10 REALLY wants a Florida school.
remember that when USC and UCLA were added, the news came out of nowhere and there wasn't a whisper or rumor about it until it was already a done deal.
OTOH, we've changed commissioners since then. Is the Big Ten always going to work like that, or was that just Kevin Warren's style?
It's possible FSU and Miami are behind the "leaks" trying to drum up the deal.
The B10 is pretty obviously going to add Oregon, UW, and maybe Stanford/Cal; otherwise USC/UCLA are out on an island. Guessing the B10 is just taking it's time while weighing additional options (ie, Notre Dame or UNC/UVA).
I guess people dont like hearing the truth but you may not be too far off. I can see UW, Stanford, Berkeley, CU for sure because of their AAU standings and media market.
I'm not so sure anymore
"both FSU and Miami are solid academic schools"
"solid academic schools" doesnt cut it, not sure why this is so difficult to grasp.
The only way Nebraska was allowed to join was when they were admitted to the AAU, the rest of the newer members were already members.
USC and UCLA were and are both members of the AAU.
Why do you keep beating this drum? Rules can be changed, and you speaking in absolutes is really annoying. Death and taxes, that’s all you get.
Well the cold water waiting to soak your face is “ACC Grant of Rights.” I am sure FSU, Clemson and Miami(YTM) would love to bolt for better $, but until they solve how to slip out of the chains they all willingly fastened to all their limbs, they aren’t going anywhere.
There has been a lot of noise in the last week that schools CAN get out of the rights deal IF enough schools push as a group to break the deal.
This is why the separate meeting this week between the ACC commissioner and Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC (and several others) made big news. They are allegedly asking for a greater share of revenue as the Football "Powers" of the conference. If they do not get what they want the view is that they will look to break out of the ACC as a bloc.
There was a lot of noise but from what I remember about a year ago, several schools looked into the matter and their attorneys came back and basically said getting out of the ACC is pretty straightforward. Getting to keep your media rights is impossible.
The ACC screwed themselves with their media rights deal. The good news is that since it's darn near impossible to escape from the ACC is stuck together. The only thing left is how to arrange the deck chairs with now paying schools more based upon their television ratings.
My understanding is that ACC schools not only gave away their media rights but if they leave and their games are televised elsewhere they would be liable for copyright infringement. Yes they screwed themselves with their current media deal which lasts until 2036. As Andy Staples wrote on The Athletic yesterday, there's sort of no way that deal will hold but in the aftermath of Maryland leaving the ACC for the B10, the remaining ACC schools traded security for freedom.
Not a lawyer but I am sure their is always a way to get things done - particularly if a majority of the ACC wants it. That said...I am not sure the majority will want it as there are at best 7 open spots plus ND in the B1G / SEC if they expand.
Syracuse, BC, NC State etc. will try to block any change as their potential TV revenue would drop to Pac12 or G5 levels without the football schools. On the same note - renegotiating the revenue split to placate those schools would be a potential blow to ALL conferences ------- I guarantee M, OSU, USC, 'Bama, etc. would take note if an uneven split goes through in the ACC.
TLDR for the whole thread. The break up of the ACC - whenever that occurs - will be the impetus for the next round of conference expansion in the SEC or B1G. When that happens, ND and at least one of the Florida Schools will be the top targets for the B1G - driven primarily by revenue generation potential.
I commented on this possibility yesterday in another thread and I like the idea of taking FSU and Miami. Makes intuitive sense to me, more so than UNC plus UVA for example. We’re rich—let’s colonize (strategically)!