Who Ain't Played Nobody?

Submitted by Bo Glue on December 29th, 2022 at 3:00 PM

The Purple Theory podcast guys leaned pretty heavily on "they ain't played nobody" when explaining why they think TCU has a chance. I guess Ohio State does not count. Harrumph!

Let's took a look at the plain counting stats in a few categories: Yards Per Game, Scoring, Rushing, Passing, and Passing Efficiency. All statistics are courtesy of the NCAA website. All numbers below are the rankings for the specified team in that statistic. They are raw numbers and not opponent adjusted.

YPG

TCU will be the second best offense we face in this area, while we will be the fourth best they face. Conversely, we will be the best defense they see in this area, while they will be the tenth best we face.

As far as yardage per game goes, UM faced 2 offenses in the top quartile and 7 in the bottom. TCU, on the other hand, faced 3 offenses in the top quartile and just 1 in the bottom. However, UM faced 4 defenses in both the top and bottom quartiles, whereas TCU faced just 1 defense in the top quartile, yet 6 in the bottom.

I would be remiss to not add that TCU played 10 games versus top half offenses (counting KSU twice), versus just two in the bottom half.

 

Scoring

TCU will be the second best offense we face in this area, while we will be the best they face. Conversely, we will be the best defense they see in this area, while they will be the seventh best we face.

As far as scoring per game goes, UM faced 2 offense in the top quartile and 6 in the bottom. TCU, on the other hand, faced 7 offenses in the top quartile (counting KSU twice) and 2 in the bottom. On the other side of the ball, the teams are fairly even. UM faced 4 defenses in the top quartile and 3 in the bottom. TCU faced 4 defenses in both the top (counting KSU twice) and bottom quartiles.

 

Rushing

Both teams are facing the best offense they have seen in this area. Conversely, we will be the best defense they see in this area, while they will be the eighth best we face.

As far as rushing yardage per game goes, UM faced 1 offense in the top quartile and 6 in the bottom. TCU, on the other hand, faced 4 offenses in the top quartile (counting KSU twice) and 2 in the bottom. However, UM faced 4 defenses in the top quartile and 3 in the bottom, whereas TCU faced only 2 defenses in the top quartile, yet 5 in the bottom.

 

Passing

TCU will be the third best offense we face in this area, while we will be the eleventh best they face. Conversely, we will be the second best defense they see in this area, while they will be the twelfth best we face.

As far as passing yardage per game goes, UM faced 2 offense in the top quartile and 4 in the bottom. TCU, on the other hand, faced 3 offenses in the top quartile and just 1 in the bottom. However, UM faced 4 defenses in the top quartile and just 1 in the bottom, whereas TCU faced just 1 defense in the top quartile, yet 6 in the bottom.

 

Passing Efficiency

Both teams are facing the second best offense they have seen in this area. Conversely, we will be the best defense they see in this area, while they will be the fourth best we face.

As far as passing efficiency goes, UM faced just 1 offense in the top quartile, yet 5 in the bottom. TCU, on the other hand, faced 3 offenses in both the top and bottom quartiles. On the other side of the ball,  UM faced 5 defenses in the top quartile and 3 in the bottom, whereas TCU faced 2 defenses in the top quartile (counting KSU twice) and 3 in the bottom.

Evaluation

One last bit of analysis while I wait for the content avalanche I'm hoping for (yes we are spoiled). While these are raw numbers, I thought it might still be interesting to look at how each team's rank compares to their opponent average ranking. For example, if you are the #1 scoring offense and your opponents are #124 on average that's...not very informative. So I took our offensive ranking versus average opponent defense, or vice versa, then subtracted 65 (since there are 131 teams).

Offense

The most notable positives are our ability to score and run against decent competition, as well as their passing efficiency. We should also be confident in our passing efficiency and ability to churn out yardage overall, while they can probably count on their ability to score being real.

On the flip side, according strictly to this analysis, a neutral observer who has not watched any of the games might worry about our ability to generate passing yardage. That said, take this section with a shaker of salt. But TCU's shiny yardage numbers come against some putrid defenses. Big Twelve football, I guess. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Defense

Our defense has been lights out against a mediocre schedule overall. Hard to draw many useful conclusions from the numbers, but the trend is positive, and feelingsball says the raw numbers have some legitimacy to them. On the flip side, while TCU has played a significantly better slate of offenses, they have done pretty badly against them, other than decent pass efficiency.

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TeslaRedVictorBlue

December 29th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^

I appreciate all the numbers and charts, but today I ventured over to TCU internetz, and they're saying all the same things about us.

We say - they could barely beat Kansas and Texas and lost to K State. They say - we're battle tested. 

We say - we crush everyone we play. They say - you haven't played anybody.

We say - your conference doesn't play defense. They say - your conference doesn't play offense.

This 1+ month gap is beyond ridiculous. They should have played this a week+ ago to keep everyone interested, and then the championship the week after new years. These teams will only somewhat resemble the last thing we saw. Players change positions, freshman step up, in the case of osu, half their team bails... its what happens when you give this much time.

That said, TCU fans seem EXTREMELY confident... though I guess I don't know how I'd feel in their shoes.. probably nervous but excited. Hard to know how this game will play out. Feels like a stressful one in store

Joined: 09/02/2021

MGoPoints: 35124

umfan83

December 29th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^

I agree about the long gap between games.  It's like the season feels over and then all the sudden its back on and its the biggest game.  Obviously most of us have been engaged throughout the last month discussing the game, reading what our opponents say about us.  That got old awhile ago and I'm sick of the back and forth.  I just want to play!

That's one thing I like about the 12 team playoff.  While its a lot to dump potentially 2 extra games on the national champion, at least momentum carries over from the regular season. 

Joined: 03/10/2012

MGoPoints: 8466

NDP1075

December 29th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^

I felt the same way last year as a Michigan fan going into the game against Georgia as a TCU fan going into the Michigan game this year.  I was supremely confident Michigan would beat Georgia. Michigan came out of no where, vanquished the rival, steamrolled the BigTen championship game.  Then on new years eve, I found out.  TCU may whip up some sort of magic and possibly beat Michigan.  If that happens, I'd be very surprised but I'd tip my cap and say good job.  I feel this year's version for Michigan has proven to be a better, more sound team.  They've had their moments but for the most part, they figure it out and work the opponent over by the 4th quarter.  I don't see any reason why this game deviates. 

Joined: 12/28/2014

MGoPoints: 576

FlexUM

December 29th, 2022 at 10:20 PM ^

I’m with you 100%. I’ve only ever watched one playoff game…Michigan’s last year. It’s a different season, different team. It feels totally like a separate thing to me. It’s a good exhibition tournament for the four best teams from the 2022 season. 

I can’t wait to watch Michigan play…this isn’t a “I hate this I’m pouting and won’t watch!” post”. 

it’s just…different. If they lose Saturday or the following weeks it kind of feels like they lost a premier exhibition tournament to kick off 2023 if they win it’s like they won a huge exhibition game that forebodes well for 2023. I get that’s not how it works…it’s how it feels to me even though I’ll be flying my flag high in Columbus Ohio and cheering my face off like a freak. 

Joined: 11/05/2011

MGoPoints: 13573

Ballislife

December 29th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^

Great data gather and dump. Thank you! These numbers definitely make me feel better about Saturday, but the playoffs are akin to a big rivalry game. To some degree, you can throw the numbers out because the season comes down to winning this one game.

Joined: 02/26/2014

MGoPoints: 10049

uferfan

December 29th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^

I’m sorry, but those TCU offensive statistics are about as inflated as a Kardashian’s boobs from playing in the Big XII.
Play in a league that actually fields defensive players and they’d be in the upper middle area of the pack offensively and certainly not top tier.

Joined: 02/04/2015

MGoPoints: 24581

Hemlock Philosopher

December 29th, 2022 at 3:25 PM ^

Appreciate the numbers and the effort, but it really boils down to this: They played Tarleton State (6-5, 1-4 in D1AA Western Athletic Conf), Colorado (1-11) and SMU who made it to a bowl game. They lost to BYU. Is that really much stronger than our OOC schedule? 

Joined: 02/12/2009

MGoPoints: 9421

Eng1980

December 29th, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^

The simple adjustment is to take the four most significant games.  OSU, PSU, Purdue, and Illinois and compare to KSU, KSU, Texas, and Baylor(?).  OSU is better than TCU as the single comparison.  Michigan scored well enough against Illinois, Iowa, PSU  and OSU.  TCU played KSU, Texas, and Iowa State and did well enough except once.

Some marketing Kool-Aid has been distributed that says the first 3 games are important.  (They are not, unless you lose.)

Joined: 04/28/2016

MGoPoints: 11988

Midukman

December 29th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^

Their starting CB just said that they see teams like us but we don’t see teams like them. That size doesn’t matter and speed does. I’ll give him credit for being confident, but I don’t think Olu and Co need any reason to wanna pave you more. I guess their 4.4 speed is faster than ours?

Joined: 09/13/2018

MGoPoints: 15906

JR3410

December 29th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^

Michigan's schedule overall was pretty weak, but they did play two legit Top 10 teams in OSU and PSU and won both of those games in impressive fashion.  So, any discussion about the rest of their schedule is irrelevant.  Yes the schedule was weak, but they are clearly a very, very good team.

As for TCU, its funny how earlier in the year a lot was made about all the ranked teams they beat.  Well, as the season went on those teams that were ranked at the time proved to be way overrated.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas all proved to be very mediocre teams.  TCU played a lot of close games against a lot of mediocre teams and I feel confident saying they didnt play anyone as good as OSU or PSU.  Kansas State is probably a tier below those two and Kansas State would have beaten TCU twice if not for their QB getting hurt in a game they were up 28-10 at the time.

At the end of the day its all about how Michigan matchups up with TCU, but I think we are going to find out the Big 12 was no good, and TCU was the team that benefitted greatly from that.

Joined: 08/04/2018

MGoPoints: 1994

ESNY

December 29th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^

It’s even simpler.
 

Our best win (OSU) >>> their best win (K-State)
Our second best win (PSU) > their second best win (Texas)

Their third best win is… Texas Tech? Ok State?  Illinois, Purdue and probably even Iowa and Maryland compare favorably to them  

Plus For all the talk of the deep Big 12, they have five teams over .500. The B1G has nine... and we have played six of them 

Joined: 11/06/2008

MGoPoints: 12310

J. Redux

December 29th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^

Per-game stats have obvious pace flaws.  That said, both FEI and SP+ give Michigan a decided edge.  I'm not as familiar with turning FEI into a spread, but SP+ has Michigan by 9.  Sagarin has Michigan by about 5, but Sagarin thinks the Big XII is the bee's knees.  (I give you, #8 Texas!). Massey has Michigan by 8.

I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion, but I am saying that Michigan is rightly favored.

BTW, as far as fan confidence goes -- I know I wasn't the only Michigan fan who went to Miami with quite a bit of confidence that Georgia didn't match up well against Michigan and hadn't really beaten anybody.  TCU fans may well get the same rude awakening that we did last year.

Joined: 10/15/2020

MGoPoints: 21507

iMBlue2

December 29th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^

Good let them get confident and underestimate us.  We don’t need to respond, the boys will show up and kick their heads in and book the trip to the championship.   the media will once again try to spin how much more talent or speed or whatever else the opposition is going to be hyped for. 

Joined: 11/24/2017

MGoPoints: 15879