Which top-10 team will flop?
Over the past dozen years, at least one preseason AP top-10 team each year has finished the season unranked. Which team(s) will it be this year?
Florida (#8) seems the best bet, based on advanced stats and schedule, but curious what others think.
2019 top 10: Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio St., LSU, U-M, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas
Past teams that finished unranked:
2018: #4 Wisconsin, #8 Auburn, #9 Miami (Fla.)
2017: #3 Florida St.
2016: #10 Notre Dame
2015: #6 Auburn, #8 USC, #9 Georgia
2014: #4 Oklahoma, #9 South Carolina
2013: #5 Georgia, #10 Florida
2012: #1 USC, #10 Arkansas
2011: #8 Texas A&M
2010: #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #9 Iowa
2009: #3 Oklahoma, #9 Oklahoma St.
2008: #7 LSU, #9 Clemson, #10 Auburn
2007: #10 Louisville
(Last time it happened to U-M was 2005.)
August 20th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
Notre Dame, Oklahoma and LSU will all struggle.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:21 PM ^
I think Oklahoma will have two losses, but I don't see them completely flopping this year due to the fact the Big 12 as a whole will be slightly down this year. Oklahoma still has a lot of talent on offense. Bold call, Ceedee Lamb wins the Biletnikoff this year.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:03 PM ^
What does this mean exactly? They will struggle to win 10 games, they will struggle to remain in the top 25, or they will struggle with repeating last years success. I honestly don't see OU having a problem with any of those.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
LSU.
Cheers.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
Flip.Flop. Fly.
Texas.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:08 PM ^
Texas or Michigan.
Sorry, I think we are getting a very friendly ranking this year, and while our schedule is home heavy, it is still brutal with Wisconsin and PSU both on the road, lost a lot to the NFL, and have not shown to be able to close a season worth a damn. I am not “calling it,” but if I was betting real money without emotion, Michigan would probably be the pick.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:31 PM ^
Wow, that's pretty bold. While I understand the skepticism for MI, I think Harbaugh has shown enough going into year 5 that it would be shocking if we wound up unranked. We could drop a couple games and I would not be surprised, but to wind up unranked would be a terrible year.
I don't think it would be shocking if any of the Texas, LSU, or Florida wound up unranked by the end of the year. They all seem to be in that area of "We are back" that gives me the same feeling as Michigan being "back" with Hoke.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:56 PM ^
I didn’t read the whole question in the OP good enough. I don’t think we will end up unranked, not a chance.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:08 PM ^
I didn't read your change of stance. +1
August 21st, 2019 at 2:51 AM ^
Oops.
August 21st, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
There's almost no way that Michigan could end up unranked. We could lose 4 games this season and still be ranked in the 20-25 range.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:59 PM ^
With their schedule a four-loss Michigan is probably still ranked at the end of season, so you're basically saying you think Michigan will lose at least five games.
EDIT: Never mind, just read your latest response that you didn't fully read the OP. Glad you don't think that Michigan will be going 8-5.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:55 PM ^
Heard this on ESPN radio too, was gonna start a thread.
They said 4 losses with a major faceplant in one could also do it for any of the teams.
They also said usually the top 5 are secure so likely will be #6--#10
Additionally they felt that since FL was the likely choice, of course it will not be them.
They also said, said team usually loses one of their non-conference games (which makes sense).
And that an early loss in the season causes the wheels to come off.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:05 PM ^
"They also said usually the top 5 are secure so likely will be #5--#10"
I think you could make a case for any team 6-10, including Michigan. While I don't think it's likely, Michigan is thin at a few spots this year with a brutal schedule, and we saw first hand a few seasons ago how much havoc a few key injuries can have on an otherwise good team.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
I would have been surprised if you picked anyone but Michigan. You surprised me by picking Texas also.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:13 PM ^
Texas. 9-3 ceiling.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:16 PM ^
The list is dominated by the SEC — 10 times it’s happened to one of their teams, and 10 times to one of the other P5 conferences (excluding Louisville when they were in the Big East). Makes sense since the SEC also dominates the early polls, but it does seem the pollsters over rank, or get disappointed by and thus underrank later, an SEC team pretty regularly.
Knowing that, I’ll pick LSU as this year’s disappointer. Questionable coaching plus a pretty difficult schedule (kudos for the road game at Texas, tho) could easily lead to an 8-5 record with a bowl loss.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:18 PM ^
Florida will be lucky to finish 8-4, thus narrowly avoiding our annual bowl clash.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:18 PM ^
Florida and Notre Dame
August 20th, 2019 at 6:23 PM ^
Based on (1) coaching turnover and (2) a major step back at QB.... Ohio fucking State.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:25 PM ^
jk they'll be ranked, but certainly not in the top 10.
Unranked, I'd have to go with Florida.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:08 PM ^
OSU is my 2nd pick after Florida. The main reason for a team to struggle is poor QB play. Fields is more likely to be good than bad, but all of these teams are more likely to be ranked than unranked. OSU strikes me as one of the most vulnerable and I foresee them ending the regular season on a down note.
August 21st, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
OSU has major boom or bust potential. They have the talent to be elite (probably one of the four most talented teams, along with Bama, Clemson and Georgia), but if Fields struggles or gets hurt, they could be in trouble. New coaches could also be a concern, but I have trouble seeing them dropping below 10-2 or so as long as they get at least decent QB play.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^
I think this year will break the trend. All of the top ten teams will be in the top 25 at the end of the season.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:32 PM ^
Texas easily.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:36 PM ^
Florida loses to Miami this Saturday, finish 7-5.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
That would be sweet. I'm so pumped they're playing that game a "week early."
August 20th, 2019 at 6:58 PM ^
Texas and Oklahoma. The looser of red river war drops at least 4 games this year
August 20th, 2019 at 7:57 PM ^
What about the tighter?
August 20th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^
My Top 10 ranked by most flop-worthy:
1. Texas
2. LSU
3. OSU (First year QB/HC would objectively worry me if I were a fan. I’m a Michigan fan so it’s hard to not think they will be fine.)
4. Florida
5. (tie) ND
5. (tie) UM
7. Oklahoma
8. Georgia
9. Alabama(duh)
10. Clemson(duh)
August 20th, 2019 at 7:11 PM ^
Pretty good list.
August 20th, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^
I would swap your 3&4, but have all of 1-4 finish out of it after sinking into the teens or twenties and suffering bowl losses
August 20th, 2019 at 7:35 PM ^
Florida (QB play is bad) and Texas (lost a lot of players)
August 20th, 2019 at 7:48 PM ^
LSU or Texas
August 20th, 2019 at 7:56 PM ^
August 20th, 2019 at 8:00 PM ^
It takes a lot to finish unranked. I don’t think any of these responses with M included are really understanding that. I mean, if we lose to MSU OSU ND and Wisconsin, we are still ranked like 22 at the end.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:09 PM ^
See my comment above. Not if one of those loses is a major beat down.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:10 PM ^
If they’re all close losses and all those teams perform well this year, then yeah maybe. If one or more of them are beatdowns, not happening.
August 21st, 2019 at 4:17 AM ^
Not if we also lose our bowl game, which has a history of not going too well.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:04 PM ^
Texas, Florida, or Notre Dame
August 20th, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^
People are too high on Texas, I could see then finishing outside the top 25.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:33 PM ^
Texas. They lost a ton of players. People are overrating them based on a bowl win against a disinterested Georgia team.
August 20th, 2019 at 9:48 PM ^
Using "disinterested" to mean "uninterested" is a pet peeve of mine.
/crankiness
August 20th, 2019 at 8:41 PM ^
Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State haven’t flopped for the last several years. The will all be in the Top 10 by the end of year. It is up to Michigan, LSU, Notre Dame, Florida and Texas. Michigan will be ranked in at least the Top 15 by end of year (hopefully top 4). I think it comes down to ND, Florida and LSU. My money is on either of the two SEC teams.
Go Blue!
August 20th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
In other words, which top ten team is a paper tiger?
August 20th, 2019 at 9:29 PM ^
LSU. Finishes 8-5 after a bowl loss and out of top 25. Texas, TA&M, Bama, Florida... bowl loss.
August 20th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
BloCryO St. 0-12
August 20th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Lots of SEC and Big12 on that historical list. I'll go with LSU, FLA, TEX... oh, and AN Ohio state institution for sure.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:07 PM ^
I’d say first choices are Texas or LSU. LSU has to go to Alabama and to Texas, and Ed Orgeron is still Cajun Brady Hoke. They’ll lose a game or two they should not lose. I think for Texas, the offense is where it needs to be, but from everything I’ve read, the defense is going to be....not great, Bob. They’ll get into some shootouts they shouldn’t be getting into.
My unpopular dark horse option would be Michigan. Still yet to prove it can win big road games (MSU and NW last year do not count, not even remotely) so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them drop one or both games at UW and PSU. OSU is a loss until proven otherwise, and then even though ND and MSU are at home, those are still tough games that could go either way. Then that Army game.....why? Just why would you schedule the service academies? Nothing to gain and everything to lose. Could this team win 10-11 games in the regular season and contend for the playoffs? Absolutely. It could also legitimately be out of the chase by mid-October.