Where will Michigan be ranked in the first CFP rankings?
Tonight is the unveiling of the first CFP rankings on ESPN at 7. So where do you think Michigan ends up? Do they stay at 5? Does UGA jump them?
Also, who is your top 10?
My prediction:
Bama, Clemson, ND, LSU, UM, UGA, Oklahoma, OSU, Wazzou, UCF.
Do not want to put OSU there but think the committee will.
What say you?
October 30th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
I do not care, irrelevant. We all know we need to win out to get in (unless complete craziness happens). Just win and this shit should take care of itself. No way a 12-1 Michigan team with a one score loss on the first weekend doesn’t get in.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
Your response to this fair post sucks. You should feel bad.
Next time you "do not care," don't post.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
His first sentence was a little harsh, but he did add to the dialogue. If he would have said "I'm not concerned with where we are ranked," instead, it would have been a fine post.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
But he (or she!) didn't add to the dialogue. The tired, tired trope of "doesn't matter, just win" is not at all adding to the conversation of where M might be ranked today. It doesn't address the question posed by the OP at all. Everyone knows the final rankings won't be the same as the initial rankings. But people like to talk about college football!
That comment is literally like butting into someone's conversation and saying, hey, I don't care what you're talking about. Cool. That's great. Thanks for interrupting to say that.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Actually, his comment is on point as it matters little. Alabama/LSU.next weekend will shake things up; if I were on the committee I'd place LSU 4th just to avoid the SEC slappies' questions and comments. They have to decide something so I'll go Alabama, Clemson, ND, LSU, Michigan, then Georgia
October 30th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Will we be HOSED if Alabama and LSU were to tie ????
October 30th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
So long as we win out, o$u only losses to us, and we can play maybe a #12 Iowa in the B1G Champ we are in! I could see OU or a 2nd SEC (Alabama if they lose to Georgia in the champ) team getting in if we beat a #14 9-2 osu, and a #23 NW. Might just the BPONE, but that's my gut. My reframe is, I would be pissed about getting snubbed from the playoffs, but a Rose Bowl win, 13-1 season, would certainly let us feel good all through the year.
edit: looking forward to the weekly or multi weekly threads
October 30th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
It's not irrelevant. The committee isn't likely to move teams around if they keep winning. That becomes important when comparing to Oklahoma. If Bama, Clemson, ND, and Oklahoma are ranked ahead of us, then our ranking becomes an important point. Similarly, if LSU and/or Georgia are ranked ahead of us, a close loss to them might not cause Bama to fall past us. This is an insight as to where we stand in the committee's eyes and whether we need some breaks in our favor beyond just winning out.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
The committee moves teams around all the time. Look at tcu in 2014. They dropped from 3 to 6 after winning their last game by 50 points
October 30th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
You're thinking about the AP. The AP very rarely moves teams much after solid wins. The committee will move a team after they get credit for beating another good team.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^
Where there's challenge there's opportunity!!!
October 30th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
Spot on. Why all the downvotes?
October 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
I agree with the sentiment. I find the rankings at this stage to be about as informative and meaningful as astrology. It’s irrelevant. But a lot of people read their horoscopes and there is money to be made in the spectacle so here we are.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Would a 1 loss Bama team get in over a 1 loss Conference Champ Mich team? In that scenario LSU would have to beat Bama and win out for it to be relevant. That is essentially the only way I could see a 1 loss mich team being left out. In that scenario Clemson would also have to win out.
I think BC takes down Clemson in Chestnut Hill/Boston at night on Nov 10.
To answer the original question: Mich starts the rankings at 5 (Behind LSU, ND, Clemson, Bama)
October 30th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
My gut says Michigan gets in over Alabama if Michigan wins out and Alabama loses to LSU, especially if ND also wins out. I suspect the committee would rather spread the bids across conferences, so long as the resumes are comparable, as ours would be vs. Alabama.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
No way. If LSU wins out and Alabama wins out then they're both in and it's a fight for us with Notre Dame (they would have to either lose twice or lose badly for us to jump them) and Clemson for the last spot.
ESPN = SEC = NCAA = Bowl Committee. They most sacred of sacred cows in all of college sports is NOT getting left out to include us. Wish it weren't so but that's not the world we live in.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
They can't both win out. They play each other this week.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
I know that. Hence the one loss Alabama team reference. (apologies if not written clearly)
If LSU beats Alabama this weekend and then both win out both will go in. Unfortunately.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
The issue with this take is that you are comparing to last year, where a one loss non-SEC champ Bama beat out a two loss Big Ten champ OSU. If there is a one loss Big Ten champ, it would be difficult to place Bama ahead of them without the benefit of a conference championship win (presuming LSU wins out and gets the shot instead). Even harder if it is UM and not OSU, since we would have the better loss.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
I’ll eat a cue ball if LSU beats Alabama this weekend
October 30th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
I don't agree. If Michigan's only loss is week one to a CFP team, they get the nod (close as it may be) due to the best kind of loss possible. I get that Bama's loss would be a good one but it is later in the season and the rest of their schedule is crap.
October 30th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
Disagree with this take. OSU almost made it last year over Bama even taking into account the Iowa drubbing and two losses.
They want to take conference champions especially when said champions are 1-loss teams. 2 losses and I think they have wiggle room to leave the champion out. This year a 1-loss conference champ Mich should get in especially if we’re number 5.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
If ND loses a game they are pretty much done. In a regular year their schedule would be tough, but their schedule is easy this year.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
If LSU beats Bama, there is a pretty good chance that Alabama ends the season with zero wins against top 25 teams (right now I think its only Texas A&M and they probably should not be ranked and are holding on for dear life). LSU is their last chance besides the SEC championship game. No way Bama would be above Michigan which would be on a 12 game winning streak and have probably 3-4 wins that are better than Bama's best. Beating Arkansas St by 50 pts means nothing if you failed in your only hard game all year
October 30th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
You're wrong. There's no way 11-1 Bama which didn't win it's division or a moderately difficult game away from home gets in over 12-1 conference champ Michigan with a 12 game win streak and a conference title. It would not happen no matter how much you irrationally think the committee is biased towards the SEC.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
What makes you think LSU has a shot of Bama let alone crossing the 50 this year?
October 30th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
I beg to differ. If Georgia goes 12-1 with an SEC title game win over an undefeated Alabama, I'd be willing to bet they both get in, along with ND and Clemson.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
That's worst case scenario for sure (assuming we win out). We'd have to settle for the damn rose bowl. Sigh.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
Is Clemson undefeated in this scenario?
October 30th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I think the conf. championship is a double-edged sword in that you can propel you in by giving you one more shot at win against a quality opponent but is seen as basically a play in game. I can't see losing that game not knocking you out unless the next up has two losses and it comes down to 12-1 vs. 11-2. I can see the justification for getting into the final four despite not playing in the championship game under the right scenario but not losing the game.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Very few on this blog want to see that as a possibility. However, that scenario is very possible.
SEC CG >>> B1G CG. The SEC champ is in.
12-1 Alabama > 12-1 Michigan (depending on that Alabama loss) An 11-1 Alabama may not get in over a 12-1 Michigan but it will be debated.
There are people (not on this board) from around the country that have a 12-1 Oklahoma over 12-1 Michigan as well.
It’s not simply “win and we’re in.” We have a loss and we’re currently outside, looking in. How we win out, how our opponents finish the season and what happens with the other contenders all matter.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
I don't see any way Oklahoma is a top 1-loss team. Their best win is 4-3 Iowa State at home and they lost to 6-2 Texas at home. We have four wins better than Oklahoma (and two were on the road). This week WV plays Texas, and its possible the loser may drop out of top 25 which would diminish their loss or hurt their last chance for getting a quality win
October 30th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^
Would agree with you, but if Alabama loses to LSU...no way they drop to 5.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
I say 4, but it will probably be 6.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
#1.... because, who cares.
October 30th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
You care enough to post this...
October 30th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
I think we'll start at #6 because of the lack of quality wins compared to other one loss teams. But in the coming weeks we'll have great opportunity to easily climb above. If memory serves, the CFP rankings are fairly fluid on a week to week basis and teams aren't immune to dropping a spot even if they win that particular week.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
You aren't understanding what the committee looks at in terms of quality wins. P5 opponents with a current winning record. We have 4. LSU is the only team with more, at 5. Washington State and Kentucky have 3, Georgia has 2, Oklahoma, West Virginia and OSU have 1.
You are looking at "statement wins" which they aren't really considering, especially as the rankings change over time. As in, was Miami really a statement win for LSU? or was Washington for Auburn? Might have seemed so at the time, but...
October 30th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
How many does Bama have?
October 30th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
Bama has 2 quality wins (vs P5 teams with a winning record), and 6 wins vs P5 teams.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
LSU's only statement win was against Georgia. The Miami and Auburn wins look less impressive now, similar to our win against Wisconsin. MSU seems to be a fringe top 25 team, which is what they were when we played them, so that win hasn't really diminished.
I say Michigan is 5, which is where they should be ranked. We have handled our business outside of the ND game (which is the best loss among the 1-loss teams) and our strength of schedule is among the best in the AP top 10. LSU should be ahead of us because of that Georgia win (quality win > quality loss).
October 30th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
I'm actually looking forward to LSU losing this weekend. Usually I reflexively root for the underdog, but I'm tired of these "OMG what if" scenarios. I'll eat a bag of lemons if LSU not only beats Alabama but finishes the year with one loss.
So much stressing about other teams, when Michigan fans' only concern vis-a-vis the playoff should be about Michigan winning out. Right now I'd say they have a 35% chance of winning out, and a 34.99% chance of making the playoff. Yet most of the talk on these boards is about that 0.01% difference.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Probably 5th this week, and 3rd or 4th next week if we take care of Penn State
October 30th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
But, if Alabama loses a close one to LSU (and I don't think they will), do you think we jump Bama next week? Lotta SEC love out there...
October 30th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
I find it hard to believe that they would give two SEC teams spots if ND is already taking up a spot. They'd be leaving out 3 conferences from the playoff, in that case, which I can't see happening.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
That's irrelevant for right now. It is a ranking of the best teams RIGHT NOW. SEC once had 3 teams in the top 4.
LSU has a better resume than Michigan right now. And Bama is clearly #1.
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
October 30th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
Alabama has only 2 quality wins to our 4 and their P5 opponents have a winning record of .44 to our .63. If we win and they lose we will have 5 quality wins to their 2, with a better opponent winning record vs p5 teams of .65 to .49. Our loss will also be a better loss (somewhat) to a 9-0 ND than Alabama's to a 8-1 LSU.
Based on the committees own criteria they won't be able to keep Alabama above us, assuming they lose and we win this weekend. Again that's pulling from the compiled data I did here: