Where will Michigan be ranked in the first CFP rankings?
Tonight is the unveiling of the first CFP rankings on ESPN at 7. So where do you think Michigan ends up? Do they stay at 5? Does UGA jump them?
Also, who is your top 10?
My prediction:
Bama, Clemson, ND, LSU, UM, UGA, Oklahoma, OSU, Wazzou, UCF.
Do not want to put OSU there but think the committee will.
What say you?
October 30th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I think we should be 4 but will be 5, with a slight chance of 6.
I also think that ND should be ranked ahead of Clemson.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
The ND clemson comparison is interesting as based on the criteria the committee looks at, the two schools are nearly identical, 8-0, 6 wins vs P5 opponents, 3 wins vs quality teams with winning records*, P5 opponents with winning records of .60 and .58, but differ only on P5 score difference, with clemson at 2.97 vs 1.77 for ND. However that 32 point spread points gained and 13 point spread points given can be explained by the fact that Clemson has played no top caliber teams, having played FSU instead of Michigan as its statement win. Also of note they both have close wins vs not great opponents, but the committee doesn't appear to break that out in itself, outside of "full body of work" through the score difference vs P5 teams.
Long story short don't be surprised if Clemson comes out on top of ND given the point spread is the only one of their major metrics that separates the two teams.
*(the committee may actually look at teams with .500 rather than >.500 records but they haven't been consistent)
October 30th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
I wrote up a little diary about the composition of the committee as well as what they look for, and then compiled the data on those metrics into a chart here if you want more substance.
We are probably 4th or 5th behind LSU but a very close 5th given our quality loss, P5 opponent record, record against quality teams, and score against quality teams.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
Thanks. I still cringe and occasionally chuckle at the concept of a ‘good loss’ that you hear dozens of times this time of year.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
I think the loss was a good thing. It was to a quality team early, but more importantly it probably instilled a must win every game mentality to the team. No room to screw up, so play your best every game.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Great writeup. It's somewhat sickening that the B1G's, and thus, UM's only representation on the CFP committee is a person who might hate our program more than any other.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
6 for sure, LSU will 100% be in front of us, if not Notre Dame as well, and I can totally see them putting Georgia at 5.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
?
Notre Dame is certainly going to be in front of us.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Think you are misinterpreting what he is saying. I believe he is saying that LSU could also be in front of Notre Dame, not that Notre Dame would be ahead of us which is a near certainty and not at all a bold claim.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
I'm thinking 6th behind 'Bama, Clemson, ND, LSU, and UGA,though I could see 5th. The SEC will sort itself out, and Michigan will be fine if the team keeps winning.
I'm concerned about a situation where 'Bama loses to LSU, however.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
The masses will tell you that "win out and we go" no questions asked. I personally believe that we are big Bama fans this weekend.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
This isn't even a question IMO. A one loss Bama is 100% still getting in, so we want them to win out and eliminate a few other teams in the process.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
If a one-loss(11-1) Alabama that doesn't even play in their conference championship game gets in over a one-loss Michigan(12-1) that wins their conference and whose only loss is to a CFP bound ND in South Bend their first game of the season, then something needs to drastically change in the ranking process.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
I disagree. They're not taking Bama over Michigan if Bama doesn't even make it to the SEC championship and Michigan wins out. Not even the slightest chance. And if LSU and Georgia play, one of them leaves with two losses. I don't think we really care about Bama vs LSU. In fact, I would be more concerned about Bama winning and then losing their championship game. If anything, we should root for LSU.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
This is Alabama (and Nick Saban's) world. The rest of us are just living in it.
I think Bama is in the playoff even if they lose this weekend.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
Me too. If Alabama loses this weekend and everything else held, I would expect Clemson v. Bama as your 1v4 matchup with the winner of the SEC title game (Georgia or LSU) v. ND as the 2v3.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
You are assuming, even if LSU miraculously beats Alabama, that they won't lose @ A&M later on.
But then, even if LSU somehow won the West, then Alabama would be left with zero wins of note. Their sheen of invincibility would be long gone, and Michigan would have just beaten a bunch of quality teams away from home, along with a 12-1 record and conference championship. I just don't see it, but go ahead and worry about it if you must.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I don't understand why every says "worry" or "stress" about it. If we went to and played in the Rose Bowl I would be completely cool with it. I am not worried about it. I just think that people who are telling themselves the CPF is a 100% sure thing if we win out aren't really looking at things clearly. I think that is obviously an incorrect assessment.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Alabama had zero wins of note last year unless you want to count Mississippi State (9-4) and LSU, who lost at home to Troy. Bama didn't win the SEC. Didn't make a difference.
Alabama is going to the playoff regardless of what happens this weekend. And people like me, who are so damn sick and burned out on them winning it every damn year, are forced to root for them against LSU, just to eliminate the Tigers.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
They were competing against 1) teams that had an extra loss or 2) teams with the same record that weren't conference champions.
Alabama was 11-1, OSU was 11-2, USC was 11-2, and Wisconsin was 12-1, but lost in the Big 10 championship. If Wisconsin had defeated OSU, Alabama wasn't going. And they won't get in this year if the same scenario exists and there's a 1 loss Big Ten or Big 12 champion.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
While it's true that Alabama's wins weren't great, who would you have put in their place? Not two-loss OSU, that got crushed by both Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa. Not 3-loss Auburn, that lost the SEC championship. There just weren't any deserving conference champion candidates. Not the 1-loss Wisconsin team that just lost in the B1G championship. Alabama got in in 2017 for the same reason OSU got in in 2016: their better record and lack of bad losses outweighed another team's conference championship.
That wouldn't happen for a 12-1 Michigan team, with 3-4 wins over ranked teams and only one road loss to another CFP participant. That resume is an order of magnitude better than any of last year's snubbed contenders.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
I don't think so. I can't imagine that the CFP would consist of Clemson (13-0), ND (12-0), LSU or UGA (12-1) and Bama (11-1).....that didn't even win their division.
Yes, I realize that it's happened before. However, this scenario leaves out the Pac 12, Big 12 and B1G. If 60% of your pool isn't invited to the party....the party won't go so well. The committee would be faced with a huge dilemma (because everyone believes that Bama is a Top 4 team) but I just don't think that they could let them in at the risk of alienating over half of the conferences. Particularly if you have multiple 12-1 conference champs in the mix (Michigan, Oklahoma....and OSU or Washington State to a lesser extent).
BTW.....I think that the OP's ranking is spot on for tonight.
October 30th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
The way I see it, this has to happen for Michigan to get voted the #4 spot in the final ranking:
- UM must win out the season as B1G champ
- Need to be ranked ahead of Oklahoma from first ranking onward
- Need Alabama to win out as SEC champ
October 30th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
No, they aren't. A 1-loss non-conference champ is not getting in over a 1-loss conference champ who has played one more game (against a decent opponent), full stop.
If that happens the whole system needs to be blown up and conference championship games stopped immediately.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
I'm more concerned about Bama winning out in the regular season and losing a close one to a 1-loss UGA team in the SEC championship game. That's the scenario most likely to get two SEC teams in the CFP and keep us out/
October 30th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
I think Michigan will be ranked 6th tonight. Probably slide Georgia or Oklahoma ahead of us.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
I would be a bit puzzled if Oklahoma slides ahead of Michigan. I could see UGA, but not Ok. Michigan has a slightly better resume and a better loss than the Sooners.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
OU is the team I'm most worried about jumping Michigan in the event that both win out and win their conferences.
That said, OU has zero top 25 wins (as of now, they have only two ranked opponents on their schedule: their loss to Texas and their upcoming game against WVU). In this situation, Michigan would have the better resume (more top 25 wins, better loss), but I'm still a little worried.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
OU's best win is ... @ Iowa St? Sure, they still have @WV, but we have @OSU.
The other part is that Oklahoma has been in the playoff 2 of the past 3 years (and 0-2 thus far because they can't stop anyone). Whereas Michigan/Harbaugh has yet to make the playoff and will be a ratings monster. If the two schools are close, I think Michigan gets the nod.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
fivethirtyeight's predictor has OU beating out Michigan in the "5 eligible teams" scenario. I'm not sure why, maybe it's that they're guaranteed a rematch against either Texas or WV if they make the Big 12 championship game while our best case scenario is a 2 loss Iowa? (though I guess either of those teams would have at least 2 losses as well)
October 30th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
I agree with your top 4, but am flip flopping between UM and UGa at the 5 and 6 slots.
Georgia has the better win so far, but our loss is far better looking and to a higher ranked team.
My guess is we’ll be five, but by the slimmest of margins.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
5th.
I actually exactly agree with your assessment.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Didn't Franklin already vote for the CFP via Twitter:
Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan ....
Go Blue!
October 30th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
My guess is Lsu will start at 4th, to boost up the ratings for this weekends Alabama game.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
Somebody a few days ago mentioned that if we scheduled Akron instead of Notre Dame, we'd be undefeated and #4 right now.
Take it a step further - if Notre Dame played a patsy for the first game instead of us, where would THEY be ranked? ND vs. Stanford looked like a big win at the time but Stanford's 5-3 now. Virginia Tech is 4-3. And those are their best wins apart form us.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
But there was upside for Michigan too. Let’s say Michigan beat ND but lost to northwestern. That win over Nd would allow Michigan to win a comparison with a 1 loss Oklahoma for the last spot. But if Michigan has a loss to northwestern (or Indiana or any other mid level big ten team) and the non conference is Akron, smu, and western we are in the same situation as Washington state is which is knowing that even being a 1 loss champ means you need help to get in.
Scheduling a hard game gives you a potential buffer win against an upset and the cost is a loss that won’t knock you out.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Better be at least 5. If there are 3 SEC teams in the top 5, I'm going to flip.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Doesn’t matter at this point. There probably won’t be any more than one on the day that the final rankings come out.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
I agree with the sentiment that we SHOULD be in if we win out... but in reality, there is a scenario that could block us: if LSU beats Alabama on Saturday, and then LSU, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Clemson all win out, it is anybody's guess what would happen... I believe it would come down to us vs. a 1-loss Alabama, and most everyone would agree 'Bama is probably the best team in the country and couldn't be left out... so that is my danger scenario. So I am in the uncomfortable position of routing for Alabama this weekend, and if they do lose, we might need them to lose twice. A 1-loss Alabama could spell trouble for a 1-loss Michigan team.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
1. Bama
2. ND
3. Clemson
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Kentucky
9. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
October 30th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
i think Michigan will get screwed.
should probably be 4th or 5th but think Michigan will get screwed because the Big10 is not as good this year. i'm expecting a 6 but could see them dropping Oklahoma ahead of Michigan because they have a more exciting offense so possibly as low as 7.
once LSU loses to Alabama then MIchigan should jump up but don't see the playoff spot coming up until Michigan wins out. maybe final ballot or the one just before the final rankings will see Michigan in the 4 spot.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
A big win against 13th ranked PSU should move us up into the top 5, if we aren;t there tonight.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
i think that is fair. Michigan will be sitting on the outside looking in until beating OSU and winning the Big 10 conference championship game which would also coincide with Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC conference championship game.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
I don't think UM will be actively screwed by the committee. I base this on 2016 - I thought they did everything they could do to position Michigan to get in if the cards fell right. That they didn't fall right is not the committee's fault. I trust them to make the right calls - they have pretty much since 2014.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Michigan will be #5 or possibly #6 if Oklahoma slips ahead of them. The top 4 will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and LSU. But does it really matter? This weekend has some of the best games of the year, and the rankings are going to change dramatically next week because of it.
Alabama @ LSU
PSU @ Michigan
Notre Dame @ Northwestern
Georgia @ Kentucky
West Virginia @ Texas
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Iowa @ Purdue
even Temple @ UCF is a sneaky good game for Group of Five on Thursday night.
Stanford @ Washington and Texas A&M @ Auburn didn't even make my list that is how loaded this weekend is.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
I just hope we win out, bama wins out, and notre dame wins out. That is best case scenario for us, regardless of rankings.
What if alabama loses 1 game (to LSU or Georgia), and GA/LSU wins out? If the game was close, who goes to the playoff? My guess is it would be a tough call for the committee between us and Bama.
Also, what if notre dame loses? They might not put us in over notre dame because we would both be a 1 loss team and ND beat us. They put OSU in over PSU but PSU had 2 losses
October 30th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
If the question was between a one loss ND and a one loss Michigan, Michigan would get in it over ND. Their win over us was the first game of the season, and they basically won the first quarter and nothing else. Particularly if ND loses to NW (really the only game I see them with a chance at losing), the committee could use the Michigan win over NW later in the season, and likely a second one against them in the BIG title game to distinguish the teams now.
To me, the two SEC team scenario is the troubling one. I don't even think Oklahoma is that big of an issue because I think they will lose again.
There is a lot of football to be played though. Michigan just needs to win.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
LSU won't be there for long. And Georgia won't beat Bama in the SEC championship game, so they're gone too. TOSU should definitely lose another game or two, including Michigan. Oklahoma is the only one I could see being rated higher. And they've got a couple games that will be tough.
But the honest truth is, Michigan needs to take care of business and not worry about what any other teams do.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
6th
bama
clemson
nd
lsu
oklahoma
michigan
you can flip flop LSU Nd too but that is where I believe we will be