Yes. Listen to the scientists and doctors who actually have a stake in the health of the population, not the guy who is trying to get hotel bookings back up and keep the DOW above 20k regardless of how many families lose loved ones in the process.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
Three weeks after everyone shuts down.
clock hasn’t started yet
March 24th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
24 to 36 months
March 24th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
The day we beat Ohio State in football.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:29 PM ^
At least we may not lose to OSU in 2020, if COVID-19 causes the the 2020 season to be canceled.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
Mid April things start to loosen up and by the end of the summer we are "back to normal"....my predictions are that the infectious rate is lower than feared (15%) and that morality, while scary looking, comes nowhere near the worst case estimates.
Best guess using what little available data there is.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
It's always a safe bet to predict that things won't match the "worst case estimates."
Am guessing that we will see what many localities saw during the Spanish flu where some places allowed life to get back to normal earlier than they should have, which results in many more infections and deaths, and a subsequent return to an extended lockdown. We would be better off waiting a little longer the first time around to avoid doing this again a few weeks later.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
Paul Mccartney Was Replaced
March 24th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
^^^^^ TROLL ^^^^^
March 24th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
The sooner we flatten the curve, the sooner we get back to normal. I think some areas like NYC should remain quarantined for a longer while. Others like the heart of the Midwest should get back to normal much sooner. In Michigan, like the city of Detroit where there is a large proportion of infections, quarantine that area longer but other counties like Jackson and Livingston should return to normal much sooner.
Piece-meal should be a solution and not an all or nothing approach.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
It can go back to normal when:
1) There is widespread mask availability
2) Testing is available to everyone (not just people with severe symptoms)
3) We have reliable treatment (not necessarily a vaccine, but treatment) for the virus
These three could happen in the coming months. Let's hope so.
You'll probably see a cure announced by early next week. Gov Cuomo announced a trial beginning Tuesday on a drug cocktail that has shown great promise in China, France and South Korea, as well as in some smaller trials in the US.
I have family using chloroquine right now and it's working for them. Husband and wife, lifelong smokers in their early 70s. Anecdotal but a piece of data nonetheless.
Do you....do you know how clinical trials work? This is longer than a week long process...I'm not putting any sort of "drug cocktail" in my body that's only been tested in humans for 7 days...
March 24th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Funny that the non doom and gloom posts are being downvoted. People have to get back to work soon!! I would imagine the down voters are either college kids at home with mom & dad or retirees that can afford to sit home for months! The rest of us have to provide for our family and we have to get back to work!!
March 24th, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^
Due to the inconsistent testing (and testing just ramping up), I'm basing judgement on deaths confrimed.
Step 1: the inflection point needs to happen. Deaths will continue to increase but the rate of increase (deaths per day) needs to decrease 1st. Italy has seen that the last 2 days I believe and everything I've read says that the US is about 7-10 days behind Italy. I hope by 4/1 the US sees deaths/day BEGIN to decrease. I can tell you in NYC, that won't be the case. The news from GOv. Cuomo is not good for NY as of this AM (Tues 3/24). Bad news in this stat by 4/1-4/10 will not be good - further measures may need to be taken, IDK what those are at this point.
Step 2: Hospitals maintain and cope with capacity, PPE and ventilators are distributed. This may be the #1 way to limit deaths/day in places like NYC, Boston, Phili, DC, Cali, Seattle, Atl, etc. Major metro areas will need this material to not only save patients lives but to save those of heathcare workers
Step 3: Limited hit to the healthcare workers. By 4/10, I'm worried that the PPE issues will start to affect the health of the medical community and staffing will be an issue. IF that's not the case and/or immunity among staff seems to be occuring, then that's of coruse good news.
Step 4: Testing gets us some usable Data to inform next steps. Again, 4/10 will be a key date, IMO b/c that's good friday and the date many schools breaks either end or begin. This will be the cut line for many districts/states to determine if returning this school year is doable and if spring events of less than 250-500 ppl are advisable. Can regular business get back to work with perhaps limited staff and/or social distancing embedded at work? Only testing data can tell us this.
Italy's "new deaths per day" is up again today vs. yesterday - their 2nd highest ever daily number.
"New cases per day" is also up again today vs. yesterday, although it's only the 5th highest daily number.
I agree that "new deaths per day" is becoming the more meaningful metric to track. However, that is also going to likely lag "new cases per day" in terms of when it peaks. Just the nature of the beast, people will die over time from this, not right away.
Looking at Italy, I'm seeing the highest correlation between "new deaths per day" and "total combined new cases over the last X days" when X is 8.
June 1st
Probably not until a vaccine comes out and is mass produced. So a realistic estimate is probably a year honestly
I think it'll get better this summer temporarily, but then come back in the fall
Define normal. Kids back to school?...September. No longer on lock down in our homes?...May. Financial markets return?...2022.
Everything that the actual scientists are saying seems to indicate a longer timeline rather than shorter. So much of it depends on people just taking social distancing seriously and getting testing way up.
My optimistic guess is that most people who can keep their jobs and don't have severe sickness will start to feel like things are getting back to normal around December this year. However, if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on "no sooner than July 2020 and no Later than May 2021".
Obviously that's an extremely wide range, but that depends on what "back to normal" means for you. It seems like U.S. cases won't peak until mid/late April, probably between 1 and 2 million. I hope that by July this year, testing in some localized areas might be robust enough to allow the majority of people to start moving around more. For example, the state of Michigan could declare in July that anyone who tests negative twice in two weeks can go back to offices, factories, retail stores and maybe classrooms and places of worship. People who test positive will still have to be quarantined obviously, and at-risk people will likely be asked to stay isolated longer. There will be hot spots that continue to bubble up until late this year, probably December.
Things like Football games, concerts, street fairs, packed bars and clubs probably won't be happening any more this year unfortunately. It really sucks, but I'm already counting on Michigan football going on hiatus until 2021. I'm crushed of course because football season is my favorite time of the year, but it just seems incredibly irresponsible to pack hundreds of thousands of people from around the country into stadiums every weekend before there is a vaccine.
I think the very best case scenario for football is that by fall enough tests are available that athletes, coaches and athletic staff can get tested weekly, allowing them to play, but in empty stadiums. I could also see the NCAA delaying the season by a few months, but that seems even less likely at this point. The most likely scenario is that we won't have any college football until fall 2021.
I'd set the over/under on the "stay at home unless you absolutely have to" state of the world ending on June 15th with the exception of local hot spots (about 4 months after it started - that seems to be what was needed in China).
I'd set the over/under on "life is no longer constrained by the virus itself" at a year from now, so March 24, 2021.
It's insane that people think the only two choices are "send everyone back to work and let 2-3 million die" or "keep everyone home and let the economy tank". Literally just implement the basic social welfare systems that every other developed economy has. Give out a temporary UBI, paid sick leave, expand unemployment payments, rent/mortgage suspension. It's simple.
Rent/mortgage suspension would have to apply to all RE owners and there's a lot of debt being held by foreigners in that category that would make it difficult legally. Having said that, it's the one option they need to consider more carefully as long as it applies to everyone including commercial owners who are sitting there with empty bars/hotels/etc.
We can move the date sooner if we all just stop moving around as much as possible. You can literally save thousands of lives by just sitting on your couch all day! This is an opportunity!
If everyone just froze in place for 2 weeks and isolated everyone that got sick, it would be over because the virus would stop moving to new hosts and it would just die out.
The virus needs to keep moving from person to person to stay alive (yes I know it's not technically a living thing). Viruses don't want to kill people or make them sick, they just want to replicate. Each person that gets infected either builds up an immunity that gets rid of it or the person dies. The virus needs to find a new host to jump to before the infected person build enough antibodies or dies.
The virus has other weaknesses too: it doesn't hold up well against soap and household disinfectants. It doesn't travel well through the air beyond 6 feet. It can only hold its structure for 3-4 days on smooth surfaces, and less time on porous surfaces. It doesn't seem to travel well through water like many bacterial diseases. It hasn't jumped to other species like dogs or cats. And so far (major knock on wood) it doesn't seem to mutate super quickly.
Most of us have no control over how many tests can get produced, how many masks can get made or how many ventilators can get distributed. What we all can do is stop in-person interactions as much as possible, wash our hands constantly (my rule of thumb is to wash hands any time switch tasks and any time I walk by the sink), and keep disinfecting all surfaces as often as possible.
One wrinkle is that they have detected the virus on surfaces of the cruise ship that was evacuated 17 days ago (including both cabins of asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID cases). That could be a major part of the reason why we are having such a problem with this compared with other past infections - its ability to 'live' outside of a host for long periods of time.
The world will never be the same after this.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:13 PM ^
Depends on where you live. WA may be close the leveling out. NYC will get hit hard for another 2 weeks. Michigan is just getting in the acceleration curve, so may mid April. Some of the central states are just getting a handful cases which will expand and may last into June. I hope by July the entire country is out of the woods.
March 25th, 2020 at 12:25 AM ^
Spring/Summer 2021, but these viruses will reappear consistently as too much of the planet is invested in food sources which consistanly result in new viral strains beyond current control measures.
This is the first social media enhancement virus. It will likely kill far less than several versions this century, but will set the global economy back 5 years minimum.
There will be some serious adjustments in the global production sourcing moving forward.