What We Are Up Against vs. OSU (The Recruiting Data)
Everyone knows that OSU has a huge talent advantage against us, but I'm not sure how many realize how monumental it truly is. I collected the data using 24/7's composite (apologies for the shitty camera image and poor formatting, I was rushed):
The takeaway is that on average, OSU has recruited 2.7 5-stars per year and 8.8 Top 100 players. They have an average class ranking of 4.6 over the dataset. These numbers are 0.8, 3.2, and 13.7 for Michigan respectively.
Even more stark, over the last four recruiting years (2018 - 2021), OSU has recruited a total of 16 5-stars and 38 Top 100 players. These numbers are 3 and 7 (!) for Michigan respectively. I repeat, OSU has recruited 38 Top 100 players to Michigan's 7, for the players that are most likely contributing to current rosters on this 2021 match-up.
We all know why this talent disparity exists, and that we need to get our shit in order with NIL to have a chance to level the playing field. I'm not here to discuss that so much as just present the data. But this is why OSU has been dominating not just us but the conference... they just have way, way better players, maybe even more than many thought.
I actually think our chances of winning this year are notably higher than I usually would think (10% for years after 2018). I think we have as much as 25% of winning, given how special that this team is, its culture and togetherness, and its leaders (both players and coaches) who simply refuse to go down. I love this team, and I love Coach Harbaugh who has gotten us probably about as far as we can go as long as we fight with one hand tied behind the back. But make no mistake, it will be a pretty monumental upset this weekend if we win from a talent disparity standpoint. But I hope like hell that we do. Go Blue.
November 25th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
Nice troll job.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
Are we not supposed to be thankful for what we DO have today.....Geez who burned your turkey?
November 25th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
This is the core problem, and it is a structural problem.
I don’t think it gets solved until Michigan gets a new President..and they decide they want to win national titles
November 25th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
We are at least getting a new president…in a couple of years.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
If that new president means we're allowing transfers to come in and only take online classes, or that we start recruiting very talented but very character deficient players, then I'll pass.
National titles are nice. But program and institutional integrity is nicer.
November 25th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
A university president has very little to do with any sports program’s success.
November 25th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
Well mjg, nervous bird just detailed a few ways a university president can impact crootin & the team's overall makeup.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
Ok, I'm sober now...
November 25th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
I found this on the 247 - 2021Composite which looks at roster talent based on their previous recruiting rankings. The top 3 have separated themselves from everyone else. Oh, and BTW, the current top 3 teams in the latest Playoff rankings are the same - Georgia, OSU, and Alabama. Strange how that works, huh ?
November 25th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
I completely agree that the NCAA royally fucked up college football with their idiotic 4-team playoff that pushes all of the elite recruits to the same 4 or 5 programs.
Ohio State's roster has players from every single corner of the United States. That was never the case in the previous 100 YEARS of that program's existence.
The current playoff format must be destroyed as soon as possible.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
That is not true...Cooper regularly recruited players from all over the country.
November 25th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
But we did just offer the 1500th ranked player who is an in-stater who said no thanks for Wisconsin. So there!
Boooooooo. But it's still disappointing
November 25th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
It’s a self sustaining machine at this point. They keep winning and that begets more and more top recruits. Those top recruits beget more and more winning, and on and on it goes.
The only thing that’s going to stop it at this point is some off-field scandal that castrates the program, or OSU has to do the exact opposite of what it’s done the last twenty years: royally fuck up on its next coaching hire. They need to not have another Urban Meyer fall into their fucking lap, not happen to have one of the greatest coaches of all time just happen to be taking a sabbatical and be ready to get back into coaching.
The nature of the universe suggests that nothing lasts forever, but my god, it sure doesn’t look like OSU’s golden age is ending any time soon. In fact it keeps feeling like it’s just getting started.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
There's basically 3 ways out of this situation:
1. Ohio State wrecks themselves as most dynasties eventually do. Miami, Florida State, Florida, Nebraska, USC, and Texas are all teams who were titles contenders (and winners) in the 90's or 2000's. They eventually ran off a successful coach or bungled the follow up to a successful one and now cannot find the guy to put them back on top as others have taken their spots (Clemson for ACC teams, Georgia/Bama for SEC teams, Oklahoma in place of Texas, Oregon in place of USC). Ohio State has an unnatural ability to avoid this, so don't count on it.
2. Recruit yourself into contention. The most straight forward approach and also the hardest/least likely. The playoff and general success is a self-sustaining cycle that boxes other teams out. It's hard to beat Ohio State and recruit at their level if you're not already beating Ohio State and recruiting at their level. The only real team to accomplish this is Georgia, who was in the same, close-but-not-close enough realm under Richt, but then grabbed Kirby Smart and by virtue of not having to play Bama every year (outside the SEC title game), being in a talent laden state, and seeing their top peers falter (Florida), picked themselves up into the zone where success sustains itself. We have none of the factors necessary to make this happen. Penn State is trying this and we all see where they're at currently. Keep trying this but don't count on it.
3. Find a Heisman/Game-changer QB who will bring the team up into contention. Somehow the easiest/most likely method. Penn State did this somewhat with Trace McSorley (and more importantly Saquon Barkley). That combo plus good recruiting and luck helped them beat Ohio State and win the B1G title in 2016 which helped them recruit for years after. Of course, without said players, they've been back down in the muck with us, so you have to capitalize while they're there. Clemson did this too, by hanging around close enough to FSU until Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson put them over the hump. They continued to strike success with Trevor Lawrence, but now they're falling apart without a QB of that cailber. Oregon also did, taking over the Pac-12 with Dennis Dixon and company back in the day, then Marcus Mariota. Oklahoma supplanted themselves atop the Big XII on the back of Baker Mayfield, then Kyler Murray, then Jalen Hurts. LSU rose up with Joe Burrow. Etc. etc. Right now, JJ McCarthy may be that QB for us. He's the type of talent, that if used correctly, can help us steal a win over Ohio State/B1G title which then catapaults us into the perpetual contender status and help chip away at Ohio State's yearly advantages.
So it is paramount that we don't waste our golden opportunity with McCarthy down the line.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^
Yeah I don't follow recruiting super closely but I imagine these star composites do not weight based on position, and instead treats all 5-stars (e.g.) the same. This could skew against teams whose best prospects are at the most important positions: foremost QB, as you mention, but also pass-rushers and DTs/OTs. Basically the positions that always go first in the NFL draft.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
November 25th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Well it’s a good thing we brought in all of these young, energetic recruiters to slice into that gap!
November 25th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Their offense is one of the best in last 10 years. They are winning it all
November 25th, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
Sadly I think this is the case. I live down in Georgia and a lot of UGA fans (my own wife included) are just saying “Wait till the play us.”
Georgia has an elite defense but they have played nothing close to what OSU has thrown out there. And their offense, while good to very good, is led by a former walk on QB who really is in the category of “just a guy.” Georgia has no household names on its offense. No Gurleys, Chubbs, Michels, AJ Greens, etc. They don’t have the horses to keep up with OSU, and the game so grossly favors the offensive unit these days.
Georgia could win that game, but I think that’s a game OSU wins probably 6-7 times out of 10.
I don’t think Stroud is better than Burrow, but I think their receivers unit is better than what LSU had in its title run.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
I'd probably still take Georgia straight up, but wouldn't feel great about it. Their front seven is monstrous and they allow pretty much nothing on the ground. They could force OSU to be one-dimensional. The best defenses OSU has played (Oregon, Penn St, Nebraska) have held the Buckeyes under 30 points on offense, so I don't yet think this offense is as good as 2019's.
November 25th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
I would definitely need to see osu's WRs do what Chase & Jefferson did in the cfp and subsequently in the NFL before I'm going to say they're anywhere near as good, much less better!
And I'm not even from Missouri!
November 25th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
How does this compare to Auburn/Alabama? Auburn has beat them 4 out of the last 11 (most recently in 2019) and I would imagine the recruiting gap is very similar.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Good point. And MSU had an even larger gap with OSU and beat two Meyer teams. (Granted, they did not get OSU's best shot in at least one of those).
I mean this in a good way
November 25th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
So basically, based on recruiting rankings (which do matter to a degree) OSU is four to five times more 'talented' than Michigan?
Sounds about right. It basically says the same thing the fancy stat numbers are telling us, Michigan is a top 5 team, but the gap between 4 and 5 is still HUGE.
The fact that Michigan has any chance in this game (and quite frankly that they've become a top 5 team in a year when most thought they'd fail miserably and end up firing Harbaugh) is a testament to the job Harbaugh and staff have done.
Win or lose Saturday, this team has wildly exceeded expectations and Harbaugh is probably a much better coach than the media, and a lot of fans, are willing to give him credit. Four 10-win years in 6 full seasons isn't anything to scoff at, I know we want better records against MSU and OSU, but not like the guy has completely shit the bed. Coming into the game (in full seasons) he's playing for a potential playoff spot.
Obviously would like to see them winning against OSU, at least 1/3 of the time but if you look at his record as a whole and what they've done, all while battling a massive gap in recruiting talent, Harbaugh has done a stellar job.
November 25th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
I concur with this completely, and both can be true: Harbaugh can be a great coach, and Michigan still has only a low-ish chance of beating OSU. We've had a fantastic season, either way.
November 25th, 2021 at 4:40 PM ^
The whole "both can be true" idea is a difficult one for many posters here to grasp.
November 25th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Go away
November 25th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Yep we get it. They gonna lose.
unless of course, they don’t ?
November 25th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
Boooooo
Blame the messenger!
Blame the messenger!
November 25th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Michigan is going to win 34-31 so enjoy your Thanksgiving.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
If we win 34-31 I’d be smiling through an exit interview come Monday.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
The thing is less talented teams can beat OSU. Yes OSU will be focused against Michigan but if we have a good game plan we can put some points on them too. Our offense is also pretty good and has some weapons. Have to hope to hold OSU to five touchdowns.
November 25th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
We are all snakebit by the recency bias. But a lot of people are overlooking some important variables. Osu has had four road games. Those opponents have a combined record of 17-27 and only one (Minnesota) has a winning record. If their starting tailback doesn’t go out that game. It would have been a lot more interesting.
I say if we rush for more than 200 yards we win this game. It’s definitely possible
November 25th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
Old time hockey?
November 25th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
This will make me feel even better about beating them
November 25th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
And fun fact, this Saturday will be the 5th time under Harbaugh Michigan enters the game as a top 10 team.
If it weren't for OSU, we would be a regular recurring play off team.
A win against OSU is more than just a win. It could propel the program for the next several years!
November 25th, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
It's week 12 of the season, between two 10-1 teams, and you clowns are still making crootin' comparisons based on best guessing, there is actual data for the players who are going to play this game.
But OMG 38! ......
like the 11 out of the 14 True freshman who probably won't play a down saturday?
Oooo, I'm sooo worried.
Even though Colson has 51 tackles, Donovon broke out and they probably have to at least prepare for JJ.
OMG 27!
Mookie Cooper is gone, Flemming and Scott half half as many catches combined as Roman Wilson.
Colson has four more tackles than Cody Simon and Hill-Green only three less.
OMG 23!
Zach Harrison? Naw I'd rather have Adian.
Jamison Williams? Looks good in crimson.
OMG 21!
Hinton better than Vincint
Ojabo better than Tyreke Smith
Eric All better than Ruckert the fuckert.
Togaia is in the NFL.
Kamern Babb. Who?
Sneed's time was now! (in portal)
And Welshof is better than Tyler Friday.
OMG 15!
And we had 7 again? Minus Charbonnet, so 6?
15-6?
Now please do me a favor and re rank:
Hutchinson
McGrone,
Mayfield
Gemon Green
Vincent Grey
Hassan Haskins
Ronnie Bell
Mazi Smith
Cornelius Johnson
David Ojabo
Eric All
Mike Morris
DJ Turner
Mike Sainristill
AJ Henning
Braden McGregor
Blake Corum
Zack Zinter
Roman Wilson
Nikai Hill-Green
Kris Jenkins
Rod Moore
Andrel Anthony
I bet I can find 9 guys who should have been ranked in the top100 in there, including a few 5 stars.
How about that Dora?
November 25th, 2021 at 11:34 PM ^
Well, Day has been undefeated in the Big Ten since he took over and we have been... not. Make of that what you will I guess. Seems to me that it's a result of them being much more talented across the board. Why do you think it is?
November 25th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
Fake news
November 25th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
I seem to recall NCAA President Nick Saban and his second in charge Urban Lapdance change the rules and stop the way Harbs was recruting and locking down the south. They nipped that in bud right quick. Then they met up every year to figure out who was gonna take who and "see ya in the CCG!".
November 25th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
People really don't know how to screenshot in 2021?
November 25th, 2021 at 11:40 PM ^
Was in a rush and took pic to post later on mobile. Just trying to contribute information and discussion, don't think there's a need to be a dick about it. Happy Thanksgiving.
November 25th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
The good news is only 11 can play at a time
November 25th, 2021 at 9:02 PM ^
I have no idea how good a coaching staff Ohio State has. Urban Meyer brought SEC recruiting to the Big Ten, with all the sliminess that implies, and ever since then the talent gap has been so substantial that it can almost never be overcome, except for the occasional flukiness that happens in a game played by teenagers. If Harbaugh was coaching Ohio State, and Day coaching Michigan, I guarantee Ohio State would still be favored. In motocross terms, they’re (illegally) consistently racing a 500cc motor in the 125cc class; the fact that they always win doesn’t mean that they’re a betterbrider. In the NFL there’s greater parity-all of a sudden Urban ain’t so good.
FWIW, my daughter was at Michigan 2014-2018, and she knew several members of the football team-they actually do go to class. No idea if that’s true at Ohio State…
November 26th, 2021 at 12:14 AM ^
I’d say this would help the whole crowd that “5 stars aren’t imoortant” but we’ll still say that it’s not and diamonds in the rough 3 stars are more important.