Weekend rooting interests

Rooting for us to not have to play Oregon in the semis.  They and Georgia are the two bests not us teams, I'd much rather they not make it or have to beat their heads against each other.

1) MICHIGAN

2) FSU ​​AND Texas

3) Washington

4) Alabama

I am going full conspiracy: Georgia loses close to Bama and there will be  some type of phantom call that aides in the Bama victory. This is all orchestrated by the SEC office to get Georgia  and Bama in the playoff. 

Chalk works. Michigan,  Georgia, Washington and Florida State all win. That keeps Ohio State out and gives Michigan the best possible match up- either Washington or Florida State.

Aside from the obvious of needing UM to win:

1) I’d like to see Washington pull it out tonight. I don’t think they will because they’ve been sputtering since they beat Oregon last month, and it’s so hard to beat the same team twice, but I’m hoping they do because Oregon looks downright dangerous. You can make an argument that Oregon is the most consistent team in the country now. if Oregon makes it, I’m hoping they get slotted in the four seed spot and have to play Georgia so they can just beat up on each other the week before the title game.

2) FSU to win. I’d like to see them win and take the three seed against Michigan. FSU would by no means be an “easy” draw in the Rose Bowl, but I sure would not mind the path of least resistance and having to face their backup QB.

3) Texas to win, just to ensure OSU is kept out. A 12-1 conference champion with a win on the road at Alabama is not getting leapt over by an 11-1 team that lost its last game and who’s best win is an ugly win at home against Penn State. 

4) I’d like to see Georgia beat Alabama, but in a very close, exciting game. People who are wishing for Alabama to beat Georgia so that no one from the SEC gets in are kidding themselves. The SEC isn’t getting left out, and in fact, i’d say it’s more likely in that situation that both of them get in and screw the ACC and Big XII over. I would rather the CFP committee be in a position where they don’t have to make that choice.

There is just no way an SEC team is not in the playoff. No way. No matter the result they are not going to leave out an SEC team when the SEC has had the #1 team in the country all year. If Bama wins they will jump into the top 4 with the rationale "yeah they lost to texas but that was a long time ago and they just beat the best team in the country all year". What would get really weird is...

if bama barely beats GA in a really close, well played game 

Texas and FSU win. 

Someone gets screwed and I honestly hate to admit it but I get the justification for bama in if they beat GA. 

To keep OSU out we just need one of Alabama, Florida State, or Texas to win 

Hook 'em

After praying for TCU last year and celebrating when we got them, I’m done with any rooting interests for the playoffs. 

Michigan defeating Iowa is my primary interest.

Then, my preference is for chaos.   Bama over Georgia.  Texas and FSU win easily - and Washington defeats Oregon in a very close Pac-12 CCG - maybe an OT thriller tonight.

Texas

The margin of victory could make a difference. I think FSU is safe only with a clear victory- more than a TD. Committee was already setting it up to snub them by saying "clearly they are a different team now." It also could impact whether they are a 3 or 4 seed.

Also a close Bama win over Georgia in what might be called a classic game improves on the slim likelihood of two SEC teams.

A very close loss of Washington to Oregon also might not completely rule them out.

The key to any hopes that OSU might have would be Texas losing. (that coupled with Georgia winning and FSU losing would probably do it).

Chalk guarantees no ohio.

The only result I care about is Michigan beating Iowa.

Take care of that first.

I suppose I should have some preference for whatever combination of results gets Michigan a matchup with FSU instead of Oregon or which leaves the SEC out, but as a practical matter they'd have to beat two very, very good teams no matter who they are.  Bring on whoever it is. 

Michigan, Washington, Georgia, FSU, Texas

So, I think OSU is out regardless of what happens this weekend.  They have way too much ground to make up, so I think it's a non-starter.   Michigan is in (more than likely regardless of what happens), the Pac 12 Winner is in (regardless of who wins), Winner of the SEC is most likely in (regardless of who wins), so there is 1 spot left.   FSU would have to lose, Texas would have to lose, Oregon would have to win in a huge blow out (but Washington would still have a win over Oregon which is better than any Ohio State Win) and if Bama beat Georgia, NO ONE things OSU is better than Georgia).  I don't see any legitimate way Ohio State could make the Playoffs.  Any talk about them making it is just to get clicks and eyes on ESPN.

Now, if you are asking, what do I wish would happen for Michigan to have the smoothest path to the Championship game, then I wish for the following:

• Michigan Wins
• Washington Wins
• Alabama Wins
• Florida State Wins
• Texas loses

The reason why I want this to happen is because this would mean that Michigan moves into the #1 seed with Washington taking over as the #2 Seed.  Bama moves into the #3 seed which means that we get Florida State with a bad back up QB.  There is no way the committee could justify NOT making Michigan #1 and with a Washington Win, they are basically locked into the 2/3 seed.

Now, perhaps Texas wins and the rest happens.  In that case, I think FSU could be the odd man out and then we are looking at Michigan playing either Bama or Texas in the first round.  I could see the committee justifying putting Bama at 3 and Texas at 4 because, you know "SEC".   People will bring up that Texas beat Bama but the committee would push back and say "Yes, but Bama just won against Georgia and won the SEC.  Texas is still in the playoffs and isn't that the goal?!?!"

If Florida state wins they are out.  The pac12 winner is in, and I think both Texas and Bama jump them with wins.

There's only one path for OSU to get in this year. Bama, FSU and Texas all need to lose. If just one of those teams win, their 5% chance drops to 0.

The SEC and Pac12 champ are guaranteed to get in. Texas and Michigan are 2+ TD favorites.

Even CHAOS doesn't help them. Because of H2H, we won't fall behind OSU. UGA and Washington will stay ahead of OSU if they lose. The CFP will not penalize UGA or UW for losing their first game in Week #13 when OSU didn't play?

The CFB fan in me wants to see what they do if Alabama beats GA, and Michigan, FSU, and Washington win along with Texas. 
 

Despite Finebaum and Saban both stumping for the SEC this week, that Texas win over Alabama cannot be overlooked. Nor the fact that FSU also beat another top sec team in LSU, leaving the SEC without a marquee non-conference win over a top team from another conference (unless you want to include Kentucky over Louisville, which, just no). 
 

They can’t have it both ways, meaning they want to include a sec team because of previous cfp history, but then not consider the most recent previous history of Texas beating Alabama. And if you are looking at ONLY this season, there is nothing in any result that says the top of the sec is any better than the top if any other conference, BUT THERE IS evidence that they aren’t - i.e., TEXAS BEAT ALABAMA. 

Yeah, keep the Bucks out. They'll say we're scared of them, like they did last year, but they'd be furious if they beat us to get in the Playoff and then had to again. So, same thing the other way, deal with it. I'm rooting for Georgia, Washington, and I suppose Florida State. Not just because I think those latter two would be easiest, but because chaos is dangerous for us. Obviously it would be outrageous but I could totally see the committee using "the scandal" as an excuse to keep a 13-0 Michigan out if Alabama and Oregon win and any other crazy shit happens.

But of course, first and foremost obviously...BEAT IOWA.

I'm rooting for Oregon tonight and Georgia on Saturday. Anything else - whatever, but I feel like those are the 3 best teams and I want to see how they stack up against each other.

Beat Iowa

Texas. If Texas wins, osu has no path. 

Whatever scenario gets Michigan, FSU, Washington, and Texas

I'm rooting for Bama so we can dodge potential Oregon in round 1. That said, I would love to get a shot at UGA this year. Oregon, however, scares me.

So, my hopeful winners:

• Bama
• Texas
• UW
• FSU
• M (obvs)

If either Texas or FSU win, OSU is out.

Anything that eliminates Georgia and or gives us FSU first. Also I think Oregon is about the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country so don't want to see them beat Washington (the line is huge for Oregon so betters agree with me)

So one scenario is Bama win, FSU win, Washington win, Texas win - that puts Bama OR Texas as the 4th seed - do you go with the head to head there as both are 12-1? 

If Georgia is to win all I care about is FSU winning as I want them at 3 and let Oregon or whomever deal with Georgia.  

I'm pulling for FSU for several reasons:

1. It should help keep the riffraff out (i.e. no backdoor buckeyes and no two SEC team entries)

2. I'm a low-key FSU supporter (when not playing Michigan) because I saw them at Doak-Campbell several times when I was stationed down that way and kinda got connected.

3. I feel for them after losing their star QB at the end of the season

4. I'm still a little bitter about 2016 and wouldn't mind a bit of payback :)

Otherwise, pulling for Texas, Washington, and Alabama (throws up in mouth a bit).  Like most of you, I'm on the "bring on whomever" train.  I got burned playing the favorable matchups game last year, and I have faith in this team.  To be the best ya gotta beat the best!  Go Blue!!!

Ideal scenario for me is all chalk this weekend with a final 4 of 

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. FSU

4. Oregon

Now the committee might do some bullshit and rank an Oregon team with a loss over an undefeated FSU, giving Georgia an easier game and making a last true Rose Bowl, but if they don’t, Michigan gets a shot at a QB-less FSU while Georgia and Oregon beat the hell out of each other. 
 

(Of course, this would basically repeat the 2022 scenario but hopefully Michigan remembers to take their opponent seriously this time)

The 4 remaining undefeated teams remain undefeated. Actually, Oregon could beat Washington. Louisville could beat a limping FSU team. GA likely to beat 'Bama. Texas beats OK State.

Oregon jumps to #3 and Texas gets #4 spot so the Suckeyes do not backdoor again.