Wanna make some cash? Vegas releases lines for MSU, OSU, PSU
To all the MgoGamblers out there....PSU is a 2(!) td favorite over Michigan. I haven't ever officially gambled on sports but this is almost as good as last years O/U on OSU winning 9 games.
15 pt fav vs MSU and 8 point dog at home to OSU.
PSU is already down to -11, but that's still easy money range wide. Gotta love the offseason darlings.
One of these years I am going to chart Vegas opening lines vs the Blue money cannon. The way these lines almost always immediately tighten is a thing of beauty
game at Happy Valey does not bode well for us, given our history with away night games. I say a 4 point loss.
I don't know about you, but thinking about that 2013 4OT game when we literally missed not one, not two, but three game winning field goals leaves me feeling dreadful.
What happened in 2003 or 1994 has no bearing on this game but I listed the results below just for kicks. Keep in mind Carr sort of owned Joe Pa sort of like Tressel owned Car.
Personally I'd put the line at +6 Michigan (but I'd start it +9 or something knowing UM money comes in like mad) but I know the general consensus by many here is PSU is "so easy and just going to throw arm punts all day and we win because of last year". But it's in Happy Valley at night with a veteran PSU squad with a program (us) that has stunk on the road for a decade with a bunch of newbies.
- 93: UM 21-13
- 95: PSU 27-17
- 97: UM 34-8
- 99: UM 31-27
- 01: UM 20-0
- 06: UM 17-10
- 08: PSU 46-17
- 10: PSU 41-31
- 13: PSU 43-40
- 15: UM 28-16
This is the argument I make for why I think we can finally beat OSU this year (aside from the home field and no OSU fanboys referees). Just like most of these players don't know what it's like to lose to OSU and pressure will be off them (giving OSU no psychological edge), the same will be true for them in hostile environments against good teams since they never experienced that yet. Losing in a certain way and trend tends to be contagious. It's more true though for a group of guys actually playing than it is for the coach.
if our OL plays well. We have to control the LOS, run the ball well and cotrol the clock. Brilliant, no?
2 TDs?!?! After we beat them by 39 this last year? I gotta get in on that action.
Don't be surprised if the line goes the other way by gametime. I think we trounce Florida and are undefeated and penn state will have a loss. Could happen real easy. They will lose on the road in Iowa or Northwestern.
If PSU beats us by 2 TD's I'll shove a lemon up my ass.
Verification of this one would be brutal...
IF PSU beats UM by two TDs, and IF MadHatter follows through and shoves a lemon up his ass, I will juice the Ass Lemon and make Ass Lemonade, and then drink the Ass Lemonade... Lock it in!
2 Board Members - 1 Lemon.
I don't want to see the video, but I'd like to watch video of others watching the video (same way I enjoyed the original).
I am going to sell T shirts for this new record negative bar level....can it go any lower? I don't see how!
OK, here is lower.
I will give my kids a whole bag of Ass Lemons, have them make a large batch of Ass Lemonade, and then have them open an Ass Lemonade stand. They will then sell Ass Lemonade at highly inflated prices to all my neighbors. With any luck, this will lead to an outbreak of Ass Lemonade Cholera...
You know, the truly frightening thing in all this is that there might actually be a market - albeit a niche one - for ass lemonade, and if you open it up on the right block or in the right metro area, you might just have a winner. A disgusting winner, but a winner.
NTTAWWT
Wouldn't you just do that anyway regardless?
I would be disappointed if it wasn't soaked in vodka first
Asking for a friend.
When the time comes when you can actually lay money on the game, we are going to be getting about 5 points.
If Penn State chokes early, we will be favored.
We just need to beat FL and then build momentum from there.
Yeah, these numbers will end up meaning nothing, but all of them except Florida seem way off.
That PSU spread is comical.
I would fade Penn State in a lot of their marquee games if I was in Vegas. I wonder what the OSU line is for the game in Columbus this year. Given the 2 UM spreads, I'm guessing it's within a FG.
Ohio State is -8.5 vs Penn State
Michigan is -3 against Florida.
they don't seem to have an online sportsbook so I guess the only way to "make some cash" is to go to that casino to place your bet. let me know if anyone uncovers an online link at Michigan +14.
On a side note bovada has Michigan the 6th best odds to win it all at 12 to 1.
They are anticipating a 53 point swing in one year? Armpunt McSorley is gonna come crashing back down to earth.
Should probably read "want to lose money that you probably can't afford to throw down a drain?"
Betting lines are NOT a prediction of game results. They are the casino's prediction as to what line will get equal bets on both sides of the game - they make their money on the "juice" or fee associated with the bet. Bookmakers obviously think that the overall attitude of "the masses" is that Michigan wil be down and PSU will be up, and they will bet accordingly.
Stated another way, nobody in Vegas knows or even cares what the final score of the UM-PSU game is going to be. They only care what line will give the desired result of them making money on the juice, associated with that game. So don't take it personal.
Which is why the lines can (and do) change. Once people start heavily betting on Michigan, the bookmaker will narrow narrow the line to equalize the betting and get more $$ on PSU. So get your bets in now, because in October the line will be down to 7 or so.
and no sacrasm here...i figured for those who realized it was absurd, might want to place their best down now, before it inevitably changes.
I was directing my post to those who had already commented about how crazy it is that anyone thought PSU would win by 14 pts. It wasn't directed at you at all.
the casinos definitely make more $ by:
(1) having the bets come in 60%-40% on games, with the casino being on the "right side" of 60% of those games, then
(2) they make by having the bets come in 50%-50% on games (at 50-50 it is, of course, irrelevant to the casino how the game winds up finishing).
The trick, of course, is for the casino to be on the right side of the games. They hire some smart folk to try to get there.
For sure, they definitely do. Most books also use pros to shape the market. Youl'll see early lines (weeks or months in advance like the ones from the OP link) posted with low limits, and then the book will let the pro bettors move the number to its correct location. Then books will up the limits and allow everyone to have at it closer to the event.
If you're a degenerate like myself, these early numbers are what you bet. Pros bet early, suckers bet on game days.
Yes, but, it's not like the casino needs to bait people to bet on Michigan. There is boatloads of money out there ready to be dropped on Michigan in a heartbeat. That line is a losing proposition. I guarantee you that right now the money is HEAVILY one sided on Michigan +14. Even if the line drops to something rational, like Michigan +4 or +5, it's still going to be heavily one sided. That casino will lose money on this one unless they scratch the line immediately and re-do it. That is, of course, if Michigan does what we all here think they will do and keep the game to within a FG.
I get it. PSU is returning a ton from a Big Ten title team and we're returning almost no one. And it's on the road. At night.
But that does not stop me from having visions in my head of our defense just absolutely shutting Barkley down for the last two years. Hoping that's a game where the secondary has grown up plenty by then. McSorely is a guy that just throws up Hail Marys and is begging defenses to pick him off.
The game is very winnable, but I completely understand why we're dogs in that game. I don't doubt that our offense will be able to move the ball, but the defense is going to have to do its thing and find a way to shut Barkley down again.
I can even follow the argument wherein we might lose, but by two scores? fuck that. Not under harbaugh.
jdon
I remember back in the summer of 2015 that the line was -14 OSU at the Golden Nugget in Vegas, and I thought I was a genuis dumping a ton of money on Michigan, especially the week of the game when it was a 1 point spread. Boy was I wrong.
But anyway, yes, I do think it's high and expect it to go down by the week of The Game.