Video: How unexpected was UM's 2023 title run? According to the recruiting predictors... VERY.
Came across this video that talks about the 2023 championship, specifically how insane it was that Michigan did so with only two 5* recruits on the roster. I think we all already know this, but this video does a great job of contextualizing how much of an outlier this is in the CFP era, where SEC teams utilized 10+ blue chip recruits to win titles.
Also interesting to see that UM wasn't just lagging behind the SEC powerhouses, but even schools like PSU, Miami, and Oregon were coming in with higher recruiting rankings, but Michigan managed to outshine them all.
If you have some time, I think the video is worth a watch to give this guy some views. And I personally don't mind watching more clips of our title season:
The 5* hoarding era to win titles is over
transfer portal and NIL changed the math
the best recruiting teams are unable to hoard talent, and any lack of depth can be countered by the portal and retaining older players
Interesting that fsu and uf have less five stars than us.
it is a testament to development and team cohesiveness playing a huge factor towards performance.
That was definitely a surprise to me too.
Michigan just developed 5 star level players and had an NFL DC
Also, I think the recruiting services whiffed on Mason Graham & Kenneth Grant.
Hidden from these stats is the impact of guys Michigan added from the transfer portal - 4th and 5th year guys who were originally 3-star and 4-star players. Arguably, these are more valuable than a 5-star freshman or sophomore. Same formula Quinnipiac used for its run to the hockey national title.
Also, I thought McCarthy, Edwards, Hinton and Johnson were all 5-stars, when they were recruited. But perhaps 2 of these were only 5-star to one recruiting service, or fell to a 4-star level at some point.
According to the Hello post, Donovan was a just a hair under 5* when he committed:
https://mgoblog.com/content/hello-donovan-edwards
I know the 24/7 composite is stricter on 5 stars, since all it takes is one outlier service to weigh down a players ranking.
This is exactly the point Joel Klatt was making recently. Harbaugh and his staff were expert at several things: recruit scouting, player development, locker room culture, and Xs & Os.
Conversely coach 3rd base seems to only be good at begging his AD/donor base to cut checks for hired help.
Michigan had plenty of 5-stars in terms of talent. They weren't plucky underdogs. This isn't a "lunch-pail kids outworked their opponents in an unheated gym" Disney story. They were a formidable yet criminally underrated team that earned every win because Michigan figured out that everyone else is overpaying for camp stars.
The takeaway should be that Michigan exposed the hollowing-out of scouting services by using their in-house resources to Moneyball the recruiting system.
I just finished reading the book "Moneyball," and I was thinking about how that idea -- advanced statistical analysis applied to sport -- might have gone well past baseball. I'm pretty sure I recall Harbaugh speaking of such analysis, and favoring certain stats over others, so it wouldn't surprise me Michigan had some of that going on. I'd love to know how much.
Related: how pervasive is advanced statistical analysis in basketball, and to what degree is Dusty May an advocate of it?
I haven't read the book itself but I was closely following baseball during Oakland's heyday and read many articles on Beane's approach. Take that for what you will. Anyway, I don't know if I'd call it advanced statistical analysis so much as just a well-disciplined, open-minded, scientific approach. The things Oakland hit on weren't difficult to find. Simple things like, getting on base (OBP) is more important than how you get on base (batting average). Just, don't be an out. Pitchers who induced groundouts were as good as those who racked up strikeouts, and were considerably cheaper -- just, don't let them get on base. An amateur could easily figure out these things, if the sport wasn't blinded by generations of conventional thinking reinforcing its own dudebro takes by coaches who were retired athletes. You know, jocks who treated nerds with derision.
I have no idea about May but basketball has been applying data analysis for a while now. From what I heard, it's why they migrated from midrange jumpers to dunks and 3-pointers; the data showed midrange 2-pointers were the least efficient shots in the game. Beilein may have been a data freak or just figured it out intuitively, I don't know, but I don't think the NBA was purely emulating him when they started hunting for "3-and-D" players.
The 'Bama team that Michigan took down the Rose Bowl had 18 5* recruits on its roster.
Nevermind. I looked up something that was shown in the OP's second graph. 🤷♂️ (but it's still really fucking awesome!)
There are ~32 5 star recruits each year. I'd assume very few 5 star recruits make it to 5th year, so let's assume 32x4 = 128 5 Stars available to 128 teams (or 60 teams that are actually going to get them). There were 2 Alabama teams with 21 5 stars, or 16% of the top recruits from available. That is insane levels of talent hoarding.
Early last year, on impulse, I compared the starting offense rosters of Michigan and Georgia. Only one on Georgia's roster was not a top 100. And most of them were around top 50. There was only one top 100 recruit on Michigan's O roster.
I think we have to secretly applaud this new NIL/transfer age. While we arent getting a ton of superstars the mega powers arent hoarding like the old days. Im not sure anyone will beat a team like 2021 Georgia without being a recruiting superpower. Luckily 2023 Bama was not that. We were our own monster created in just the right moment.
Yeah, people can write books and make documentaries/movies about the 2023 Michigan football team. The story perfectly writes itself, no extra drama needed. It has to be one of the most fascinating college football stories of all time.
That said, the embarrassment of riches enjoyed by the SEC is ridiculous.
So the assessment of talent coming out of high school may not comport with the actual talent developed over four years in college? Who knew? Next thing you know, there will be 6th round NFL draft picks turning into stars when 1st round picks flop.
I think this data confirms that there is a correlation between high number of 5*s and and playoff success... most of the time.
Just because UM proved it wrong this past season doesn't mean that it's not a decent predictor of future success.
The exception to the rule doesn't disprove the rule.
The exception to the overall trend doesn't invalidate a tangible trend.
I believe I read that Alabama last year had more former 5* recruits than the entire Big 10.
Yeah, I never understood the people saying this was Saban's best coaching job because he didn't have a great team.
He had stars on stars on stars on that roster. If FSU's QB doesn't get hurt, then Bama misses the playoffs, and we'd be talking about how bad a year Saban had to miss the playoff with that much talent.
Alabama was the sports equivalent of the 2008 financial crisis.
It's an oversimplification, but the real estate bubble was propped up by mortgage-based securities that continually got AAA's slapped on them by the credit rating agencies. The agencies weren't actually checking what they were grading; they were just lazily and greedily cashing in their decades of built-up reputation to sell fool's gold, and big investors like AIG never questioned it or even looked into it, because getting nosy is how you lose friends when everyone's crooked. There's a reason the SEC never has a scandal until the Feds literally get involved -- yes, that SEC, and the other SEC as well.
In this allegory, the bubble is NIL, the mortgages are the HS players, the credit rating agencies are the scouting services, and the big investors are the Alabamas and TAMUs of college football. The scouting services had almost completely stopped doing their diligence, relying instead on greedy families sending their sons to expensive camps chasing dreams of NIL money that comes with those coveted 5-star ratings. Now, I don't think the camps underrated the 5-stars they got -- unlike banking, it's kind of hard to fake a public workout -- but they certainly didn't look elsewhere, like Idaho or Hawaii or Massachusetts. And Saban, whose illegal pay-for-play system was heavily reliant on nobody involved asking questions, didn't ask questions himself. He kept trusting the system he helped create, until Michigan exposed him -- and he promptly retired. He may be a jackass but he knows football well enough to see his 5-stars got dominated, and realized he was sold a bill of goods.
This is how you get an Alabama team loaded with 5-stars, led by a center who couldn't even snap the damn ball.
Wow. Thanks for posting this .. I will say, Herberts effect was vase...making these players elite athletes.
You don't win without talent. Michigan did not acquire much of the obvious-to-everyone talent available, but they still had tons of elite players - Graham, Grant, etc. Zinter and Mikey were All-Americans but not 5-stars, Blake Corum made a team, and so on.
So either Michigan out-scouted the recruiting services to find five-stars-in-the-rough, or coached up 3/4 stars to play like 5 stars. (Or both.)
The key going forward is for the new coaching staff to continue that trend. One way or another - portal, scouting, coaching them up - you gotta have Jimmies and Joes.
Indeed, Michigan did not win the National Championship without talent. They won it with vastly mis-identified talent.
Ari Wasserman’s brain cannot compute what happened.
I love how there's no correlation between number of five star players and wins. It's just a number given to high school players that is not representative of how good they'll be in college. Sorta like draft round for NFL players...
Love the ending video! Wonderful rear-view analysis of last year's magic. Says so much about the integrity and atmosphere of the players and staff. Go Blue!
If you re-ranked all of the CFB rosters on Jan 9th 2024, Michigan would be at the top of the list. Just look at the NFL draft proceedings so far.
A Michigan National Championship indeed should have been anticipated by the start of the season.
Apparently, COACHING and CULTURE is a big part of getting a TEAM ready to play.
Who cares about the stars. After the last 2 seasons, Michigan was the best team coming into the football season and they won...period...