Vegas senses something...
95 percent of the betting is on Ohio State, yet they've been readjusted down to minus 7.5. What could be afoot?
November 26th, 2021 at 11:47 PM ^
Best answer in the thread.
November 27th, 2021 at 12:41 AM ^
Yes, they take bets on hundreds of games a week, tens of thousands of markets. They get a nice edge and don't need to even out the bets on every game, even the bigger ones.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
They know that we might only lose by 7 instead of 9? Not exactly something to get excited about.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:03 PM ^
BJ Stroud has the sniffles ?, he’s probably worried about Hutchinson and Ojabo crushing him.
I have Uof〽️ winning by 7.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
Go, Blue!
November 26th, 2021 at 9:30 PM ^
Snow looks to be arriving earlier, possibly in the noon hour (at least according to the hourly forecast). Even though it may just be flurries, my guess is they're expecting the weather to impact things and suppress the score, as opposed to the Stroud rumors.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:33 PM ^
A good bet on this game is to bet twice.
Once that Ohio beats the spread and the other is on a Michigan win. The latter will make up for if the first is wrong.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^
So what happens if OSU wins by 3? You lose both bets and are sad that Michigan lost the game.
THE smart bet if you're looking for an emotional hedge is simply OSU on the money line. Bet $300 and win $100 if OSU wins by any amount. If Michigan wins you're happy but out $300.
November 27th, 2021 at 7:55 AM ^
Not happy when I’m out $300
November 27th, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
$300 is not a lot of money for a Michigan grad and truck drivers are bringing in solid money too so both fanbases can bet on the game without a big consequence
November 26th, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
Vegasinsider is showing the moneyline split at 60/40. That has been trending toward Michigan all day.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
Obviously Vegas uses the NOAA weather app.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
Cute, but that won't stop me from taking the good guys to not only cover but win outright. Tomorrow is the day. This is the year.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
Stroud shit his pants on the bus ride.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
If I were to find out that OSU lost out on playing an impact player due to circumstances that will have no lasting future implications on that player, I would celebrate the victory as if said player had played. We never get those type of breaks. Hopefully Vegas does indeed know something. Regardless, interesting topic.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
My 2 cents … Vegas knows something.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^
Correct, the one they one thing they know...it's $$$
November 27th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Upon reading MI State got hit with the flu bug. Wondering if Ohio State may have got it from them last week?
November 26th, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
Is the 95% toward OSU just ATS or ATS & ML? If it’s both that would make sense. Most people still think OSU is going to win but UM will cover.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:02 PM ^
Weather forecast definitely getting worse with each passing hour for AA.
If AA is receiving full-blown snow at noon, expect the Vegas line to drop to OSU -6 just before game-time.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^
Snow moving in, weather channel say 1-3” with a 49% chance at noon. That’s all I can think of. I’m sure Ryan Day isn’t giving reports of what players have the squirts.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:06 PM ^
But what if the 5% betting Michigan is a $25 million chunk from Floyd Mayweather or some other whale? Big bets like that get the attention of all the bookies.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
Yeah he’s definitely not a true freshmen
November 26th, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
I have two theories:
- Vegas lowered the line to lure money towards Michigan, sort of the way raising the price sometimes helps you sell more of your wine because it makes customers think the quality's better. "Hey, the Stroud rumors must be true, Vegas moved the line!" This is sometimes referred to as the Brandon/Hoke effect.
- Dan Tan's out of prison; maybe he laid a heavy bet.
November 27th, 2021 at 1:44 AM ^
Every major sports book has shifted the line in UMs favour by at least a point.
November 27th, 2021 at 4:41 AM ^
Prior to osu exposing msu, the vegas line was 6 points for THE GAME
November 27th, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
The #1 thing Vegas wants is a good number. They'll adjust as bets come in if needed, but they'd rather have a good number and bet against the public. That's why you'll hear things like "Vegas needs "X team" to win" or whatever. In an one-off game, it's not good business sense. With a high enough sample size -- which they obviously get -- they feel waaaaay better trusting their model and lines than the general public.
The line drop doesn't really mean that much to me -- if it went to 7 that'd be a big deal. But, the open at 6 is what I really like. That's what they truly think. They can bump it up to 7.5 or 8.5 and still be safe from the smart money, so they're good.
Now, in 2019 Ohio State was only -9. So, overall...meh
November 27th, 2021 at 8:48 AM ^
BTW, the latest NWS Forecast (0650 EST) is predicting snow to start falling at Detroit Metropolitan Airport at 1500 EST. The trough that will be producing this snow, edging out the impact of a High Pressure center moving to the NE and out of MI, is arriving from WSW to ENE. It would not surprise me that we'll see some flakes with no accumulation around the middle to the end of the 3rd quarter.
Be mindful that the biggest impact on this game is the cold temperatures mostly in the low 30s. That it is mostly below freezing would dictate light and dry snow flurries instead of the wet stuff.
Surfaces are still warm and light accumulation on the roads will melt and then freeze as temps drop post game. Driving could be messy.
November 27th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
I don't know if legalized sportsbetting has been, in the aggregate, a good or bad thing, but the one thing that it is eventually going to do is educate the public that Vegas is not in this to cap its profits at the level of the vig. To oversimplify, as a logical matter, that is what must happen if you split the money: you cannot do better than the vig. That's like making money through a savings account - certainty of return, but very low return.
I work on Wall Street. Banks, hedge funds, private equity companies, venture funds, etc. are all looking to do better than savings account returns. In my opinion, Vegas has a much larger risk appetite than most, if not all, of the participants in the foregoing markets.
The primary driver of lines is not Vegas's fear of Joe Public betting $100 on a game.