UW opens as 4pt Favorite over Michigan.

Submitted by Cobra5476 on September 26th, 2021 at 8:42 AM

UW opens as 4 pt favorite over Michigan.    

MGoStrength

September 26th, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^

I'm not sure what happened to Cade, maybe it was the targeting, maybe he just got out of rhythm, regardless Wiscy will be more stout on defense than Rutgers.  Rutgers has a bunch of 4th, 5th, and even 6th year guys.  They have like 10 starters who are seniors or super seniors.  I think all of them took the extra Covid year.  They are a solid team, but they aren't a top 20 type team.  Despite Wiscy's struggles, they are a better defensive team than Rutgers. 

ND only had 3 rushing yards against Wiscy, but did have 239 passing yards.  ND forced 4 INTs, which lead to the big win, but they didn't win because they ran the ball on Wiscy.  UM won't be able to run down Wiscy's throat.  They either need to force Mertz to make mistakes, score points on special teams, or win through the air.  What they did today won't be enough to beat Wiscy.  Cade, the WRs, and the o-line will need to do more to beat Wiscy and they will need to throw more than 20 times and find balance on offense.  I really hope they go back to testing the edges, screens, end arounds, slants, RPOs with some keepers, maybe even get JJ in there for those, throw on first down some, and still stay with the run but with more of a 50/50 run/throw split.  If not, UM is going to be on the bad end of an ugly game with very little offense,

Soulfire21

September 26th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^

Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. We’re 100% losing if we go into that game with “run between the tackles” being 96% of our running plays and only testing the edge one time.

ak47

September 26th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^

Hammer the shit out of Wisconsin. Yesterday was our 2013 game against uconn. Sure we technically got the win and you can find some silver linings, but every flag is there that this is just a 7-5 team. I might be the one person on this board whose expectations are down from Pre season. I thought we were 8-4 or 9-3 with the offense looking pretty good. Given what we saw yesterday is more 7-5 to 8-4.

outsidethebox

September 26th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^

I will not be surprised if this game is a Harbaugh double-down...to show us that you can win today with straight power football. Something like-Villari starts with 6 OLs, 2 TEs, Haskins and Cornelius. 

 

WolverineHistorian

September 26th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^

An interesting stat; Since Mertz started that game against Illinois last year where he threw 5 touchdowns (and half of MGoBlog was drooling over him for some reason) he's now thrown a combined 5 touchdowns and 11 interceptions ever since.

They also lose fumbles, even when they're in scoring position like that time they muffed a handoff against Penn State.  

On the flip side, you have Michigan, who's opponents rarely if ever fumble.  And don't be fooled by that game ending fumble at the big house yesterday.  That hardly ever happens.  I can probably count on one hand the number of times opponents lose fumbles against us the last two years, since the end of the Army game.  

Even though Wisconsin is insanely mistake prone, I just don't expect it to happen against us.  Dierdorf was right on the radio yesterday.  They're going to stack the box and force us to throw on every play, all day.  

MaizeBlueA2

September 26th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^

Joe Milton was our QB. We were right to drool.

Now? Not so much.

But Mertz is EXACTLY the QB that has an inexplicable MONSTER game versus Michigan.

He's cut from that high 3*/low 4* who isn't that good, but hammers Michigan cloth. Especially at home.

Hopefully he just looks like himself and he sucks and we win 17-13 or something. But it's always the guy with a liiiitle potential.

snarling wolverine

September 26th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^

Against Don Brown's D, I might expect that.  Brown had been found out.  But Macdonald's D so far is holding up really well against opposing QBs.  We have two nice data points.

Lombardi in 2020 vs UM: 17-32, 323 yards

Lombardi in 2021: 9-17, 46 (!) yards

Vedral in 2020: 29-43, 381 yards

Vedral in 2021: 18-31, 156 yards

Mertz had a pedestrian game last year (12-22, 127 yards) and he/UW don't seem improved, so I'm confident enough there.  Run defense will tell the tale.

WolverineHistorian

September 26th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^

No need for the drooling because Milton hadn't even started his first game yet.  Did you have access to a time machine?  

Mertz was 12/22 for 127 yards and two touchdowns.  Is that considered "monster?"

All Wisconsin had to do in that game was run the ball, which they did easily (as all opponents did easily against us last year) and wait for Milton to throw an interception (which he did multiple times) so they could cash in on our mistakes.  

I was absolutely miserable last year as everyone else but last year is moot compared to what happens this year.  

MaizeBlueA2

September 26th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^

What time is the game is what I want to know...

The only slots left look like Big Noon Kickoff on FOX or the night game slot on FS1.

It's clearly going to be our game getting one slot and OSU/Rutgers gets the other. 

Hoping like hell we get the Big Noon Kickoff...but they just did Wisconsin and ND. 

I feel like we're going to get stuck in Camp Randall for a night game.

Ezekiels Creatures

September 26th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^

I haven't seen elite level pass plays so far. But they may have to take the chance of running some against Wisconsin. I don't think it's going to take a lot of points to beat them. Turnovers would help. But Michigan is going to probably have to run some daring pass plays that they haven't used this year. I'm sure Cade McNamara is able to run them.

tybert

September 26th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^

Totally fine with this - I do think we'll see some positive adjustments to the run/pass ratio and which downs are used for which plays. I also believe that Cade was probably either foggy or scared after that hit and, yes, JJ would have been a great change to have one that final goal line drive before half. He could have faked to Hasan and taken it around the end for a score. 

Anyway, if we are pissed and depressed after 4-0, how about UW fans? They had a very favorable schedule with PSU and UM and Iowa at home and probably expected to be 12-0. 

If we win (I think we will), JH will have his 1st road win as an underdog. 

switch26

September 26th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^

Rutgers scored 13 pts and the main reason was Ross being out.  So hope he comes back healthy.  

 

The good news is Mertz is a fucking statue and rutgers qb was running literally every play which aided their scoring drives 

Perkis-Size Me

September 26th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^

Don't feel even remotely confident about this game. Not anymore. 

The blueprint to beat Michigan is right there. Stack the box, dare McNamara to beat you through the air, which he may have the capability to do, but if he's only being allowed to throw 10-15 times a game then the odds heavily go into Wisconsin's favor with that gameplan. 

Rutgers supposedly had little to no means to be able to move the ball effectively, but in the second half they seemed to be able to move the ball at will, and the lack of DT depth got exposed big time. Wisconsin's offense may not be as potent as it normally is, but running down your throat in the I formation is their bread and butter, and they're going to pound Michigan up in the middle next Saturday until Michigan proves it can be stopped. They just don't have the bodies to do that for a full sixty minutes. 

I think this will be a close, ugly game in the first half, and then not unlike the 2017 edition of this game, Wisconsin will start to pull away in the second half. Something to the effect of 30-13 in a big "get right" game for them. 

If Michigan can get to at least +2 in the turnover margin, and if AJ Henning can rip off some big punt returns and set Michigan up with a short field, then they'll have a shot. But otherwise, they're probably toast, if yesterday is any indication. I don't doubt Rutgers is improved, but they shouldn't have been that improved

bronxblue

September 26th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^

Seems about right.  I don't trust Mertz and their defense didn't look that good against ND.  It'll give UM fits and we'll see if UM can break out of their tendencies but I rewatched that second half and there were a couple of runs that were an ankle tackle away of breaking loose.  It'll be a close game but I feel more confident about this game than I did a couple of weeks ago.

Mgoczar

September 26th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^

Man I like your posts but that second half was horrid. No singer coating it. And since you get this more than me, why the F didn't Gattis run the 2018 bubble screen that killed penn state in this game ? Or perimeter runs ? Enlgihtnen us only your best / worst column. Inexplicable to be they don't atleast try some edge shit instead of in btw tackle stuff HOPING for something to break.