Tua or Burrow #1

Submitted by Mineral King on November 9th, 2019 at 7:31 PM

Who would y’all take #1 overall in the draft next year? They were both outstanding. I think this might be the closest you can get to two can’t miss NFL QB’s.

Junior18

November 9th, 2019 at 8:10 PM ^

Giants fan here... they seem to be doing their best to get a high draft pick, and I'm sure they'll stick with Daniel Jones, so I'm faced with the possibility with having to decide if I'm going to root for a Buckeye or not. I dodged a bullet last year when many were predicting Haskins to the Giants. 

M Go Cue

November 9th, 2019 at 8:30 PM ^

Ball comes out different to receivers.  OCs need to change formations to accommodate lefty QBs, teams need to re-prioritize their o line needs.

i don’t think that will stop anyone from taking Tua, but if two QBs are equal, it’s just easier for a team to build around a righty.

stephenrjking

November 9th, 2019 at 8:09 PM ^

I'm really impressed by Burrow, but right now I still think Tua is the guy. People forget how accurate his passing is. 

The one place I have reservations is whether or not Tua will adapt to making NFL-quality throwing decisions or not. Burrow (who, granted, is non-trivially older) has had to make more difficult-read throws. Tua usually has plenty of time and wide open receivers, though he certainly hits them well.

Regarding injuries: It's a different ankle this year. Sometimes guys just get hurt. 

Connie_Bow

November 10th, 2019 at 8:19 AM ^

Why wouldn't it be? I love scouring the internet to find football comment threads, populated by unhappy guys, where I can talk about myself. 

 

I had this picture made just for you. It's this morning.

Alumnus93

November 9th, 2019 at 8:16 PM ^

Burrow looks like a top Carr or pre Carr Michigan QB. very sound, no wtf mistakes.   I can't say this about Shea. 

No surprise Hoke went after Burrow so hard. IIRC he was the top on his board.   

Bo Harbaugh

November 9th, 2019 at 8:21 PM ^

I will compare them to some historical greats...of course we have no idea how they progress in the league...

Burrow more poised in the pocket and has that 6th sense of when the rush is coming.  Has that Brady, Montana poise.  Not super athletic, just super chill and aware and slides really well within the pocket and escapes traffic.

Tua reminds me more Russel Wilson or for the old folk (John Elway, Steve Young)....seems to feel more comfortable (when healthy) totally escaping the pocket before looking downfield again to throw.

All are great and can't go wrong with any of those listed greats...but I just prefer the prior guys who seem to always have the eyes downfield and seem able to avoid contact better.

I would go with Burrow. My draft if is 

1) Burrow

2) Young

3) Tua

stephenrjking

November 9th, 2019 at 8:29 PM ^

A little bit earlier to be picking spots when we don't know who fills them. The top of the draft falls the way it does mostly due to the combination of teams that need QBs and great QBs available.

If Burrow and Tua both go through the evaluation process and remain high (no reason to believe that they won't), they'll probably be the top two off the board unless Washington slots in to the top two and hasn't abandoned Haskins yet (it could happen, look what happened to Josh Rosen at Arizona). Washington will probably take Young wherever they land, as things stand now. Naturally, draft order can change as other players emerge.

BJNavarre

November 9th, 2019 at 8:50 PM ^

I kinda thought LSU's RB carried them in the second half. Burrow played well, but didn't look special. The hype should be for that running back. He was exceptional.

Durham Blue

November 9th, 2019 at 9:35 PM ^

Edwards-Elair (sp?) was exceptional.  Burrow was a hair above that.  Alabama was coming on STRONG in the fourth quarter.  Most teams would've collapsed under that pressure dome.  Burrow drove LSU straight down the field for the game sealing TD.  That is exceptional QB play at the very highest level.  Calm under intense pressure.  Incredible accuracy.  Good arm strength.  Good mobility.  Smart with the football.  Tough.  I wish he transferred to Michigan.

DHughes5218

November 9th, 2019 at 8:56 PM ^

Burrow. He looks like a young, college version of Tom Brady. I’m not saying he will ever be half as good and I’m not comparing the talent, but he makes the game looks easy the way Brady does. He’s eerily calm under pressure but if you talk shit, he’s going to make a play and then let you know about it, just like Brady.

MichiganStan

November 9th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^

Burrow EASILY. Burrow is the best college QB Ive ever seen. His reads, throws, and placement are sexy and that's the only way to describe it. And he's doing it against the best competition too.

Tua has possibly the best WR group in the history of CFB. He gets to throw to Waddle, Ruggs, Jeudy, and Smith. Even Tua's RB Najee has the hands of a #1 WR on most teams. I think due to this talent it makes Tua look better than he is

 

bronxblue

November 9th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^

Maybe it's because I've seen a number of these QBs sorta flame out in the NFL, but I'm not sold that Burrow would have nearly the success in the pros as he does right now at LSU.  He's obviously talented, but his entire career up to this year didn't really point to this type of breakout, and he wasn't really on any NFL radar.  I tend to assume that more times than not the plucky guy with an unremarkable arm and average athleticism who was considered a great dink-and-dunk passer who suddenly blows up with a new offense may not be able to sustain that if the setting changes.  I'm also not particularly sold on Tua for the same reason, though at least there you have evidence of a strong arm.

I just don't think there are many elite QBs this year, and teams are going to over-draft to get one.  Daniel Jones is in no way a top-10 talent but he was drafted there because teams (foolishly) believe you have to take a QB high if you have a need.  I think you're just as likely to hit this year on a guy like Jamie Newman from WF as you are with Tua or Burrow at #1, and you might be able to get Newman late in the first.  

stephenrjking

November 9th, 2019 at 9:14 PM ^

Jones has actually looked better than I thought he would since he took over the job, and I think he shows some promise.

But I generally agree with your premise. Too many QBs just get drafted too highly by teams that are then chained to those QBs for years. QB is, of course, the most important position on the field, but that's all the more reason why franchises should be more judicious in drafting them, because a bad choice can condemn a franchise to years of mediocrity.

I think he's a nice guy and I liked him personally, but Christian Ponder was the classic example of this. He was a reach when he was picked, and the Vikings wasted years with otherwise strong rosters with a bad QB anchoring them to mediocrity. 

QB is no less important than it used to be, but I feel like some franchises are missing opportunities to build good teams by reaching for franchise QBs that won't work out. They are better off using those draft picks for players and then hoping to get a surprisingly decent guy in a different draft, even guys that fall a bit. Guys like Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson have provided superb value to their teams not only by being draft "steals" but by allowing their franchises to spend high picks on other key parts of the team. 

Yeah, those guys won't all work out, but neither will the top ten picks... and you can dump a second-rounder a lot easier than you can a top ten guy. 

bronxblue

November 9th, 2019 at 9:33 PM ^

Jones has been...fine.  I think he had a really good game against Detroit, but I've watched him a couple of other times and he just stares holes into his receivers and it's why he's been picked off 8 times, sometimes comically so.  If you got him in the 2nd or 3rd round he'd be promising, but like, Josh Allen went a pick after and I'd much rather have him.  Gardner Minshew had at least as good a college career as Jones by any realistic measure and he went 6 rounds later, and has the added bonus of being the most cleaned-up dirtbag look possible in the NFL.  So it's why I think teams overreach because of a perceived need, and it's why guys like Burrow and Tua seem like stretches.  

My general feeling about important at the QB spot is it matters to a degree; you have to be average or a bit above.  But because Tom Brady has won a ton of titles we sorta assume that's required for a championship and I'm not sure that's the case.  Outside of Brady, the last couple of Super Bowl winners were guys like Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Eli Manning, the still-warm corpse of Peyton Manning, etc.  Even Russell Wilson wasn't all that great the year they won the title; he was really solid but that was a team with a great defense they were able to cobble together because Wilson was a cheap 3rd-round QB (as you noted).  

I agree about Ponder.  That year also had Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and we've also had years where guys like EJ Manuel, Ryan Tannehill, Paxton Lynch, etc. all got drafted based mostly on potential and positional need.  If I was running a franchise I'd rather draft a Kirk Cousins, average NFL QB, on a cheap contract than pay for Kirk Cousins, average NFL QB, on a massive contract.  Because you're going to get the same performance, and hell maybe you can flip that guy into draft picks as he nears the end of his contract.  I guess it requires teams being confident in their drafting and team composition, but I'd rather hope my pretty-good team can get an above-average performance from a QB than my average team get dragged to a championship by my above-average QB.

 

stephenrjking

November 9th, 2019 at 10:44 PM ^

I really want to find something to disagree with in this comment, because this is a fun discussion and I want to keep it going, but I agree with all of it. I think we're on the same page here.

And I really think that the value of finding a good second-round type (everyone takes flyers on low-round guys hoping for a Brady or not a Minshew, who has been exciting to watch, but those two guys are the exceptions that prove the rule that most of those guys don't come close to making it) and trying him out when there just aren't accessible first-rounders. Now, if you think you know you have the next star, a guy like Patrick Mahomes, and are either in position to draft him or trade to draft him, great.

But guys like Jones (who could work out!) and Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky seem destined to fail almost as soon as their name is called. One might suggest that Allen was no worse of a bet to make it than Lamar Jackson, and that in Buffalo Jackson might be ruined with bad surrounding talent and bad coaching. Might be right, too--but Jackson, at #32, was a far lower risk for the Ravens, who never had to go all-in on him as a future-or-bust franchise type guy. Now he's the MVP, and the Bills have a great defense with a QB that is only ok that they are basically stuck with.

Can you imagine the Broncos drafting another QB and pulling the trigger on someone like Jacob Eason or Jalen Hurts at #10 or something? It almost seems inevitable. Their franchise will be tied to someone who would be a much better pick in the second round by a team like the Chargers that still has a QB that can be good but could be ready to turn the franchise over if they find the "right" guy.