A Lot of Milk

December 1st, 2019 at 8:04 PM ^

They didn't average four losses a year the past decade, the fewest they had in any given year is four. That's a huge difference. They've had some awful seasons

If you're suggesting that there's no difference in being 10-3 while losing to OSU and being 3-9 with rich rod and still losing to OSU, you should reevaluate what you can tolerate in this program

DrMantisToboggan

December 1st, 2019 at 8:02 PM ^

Texas has more money than us, exists in a state where football is religion, doesn't need to leave the state to recruit a top ten class every year, and plays in a weaker conference than we do. It is absurd that they have not finished a single season this decade as a ranked team.

Similar disappointment at USC.

It can always be worse people. 

DrMantisToboggan

December 1st, 2019 at 8:34 PM ^

I'm not so sure about that. I think most Big 10 teams would sit in a zone and make the Big 12 offenses put together long drives, and they wouldn't be able to. Then the Big 12 defenses wouldn't stop anything.

Going by best vs. best SP+ ratings, which Big 12 teams would you bet on in these matchups?

  • Ohio State vs. Oklahoma
  • Penn State vs. Baylor
  • Wisconsin vs. Iowa State
  • Michigan vs. Texas
  • Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State
  • Iowa vs. TCU
  • Indiana vs. Kansas State
  • Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
  • Nebraska vs. West Virginia

I might take Kansas State over Indiana. MIGHT. The rest, I am taking the Big Ten team.

Phaedrus

December 1st, 2019 at 9:23 PM ^

I doubt it. We would force them to run the ball and they wouldn't be able to against our 4-man rushes.

Do you think one of those Big-12 defenses is going to stop Jonathan Taylor running the ball? How about dealing with Iowa's cover-2? In such a challenge Oklahoma would take on OSU and it took a Heisman performance for them to win last time.

We obviously wouldn't go undefeated (Rutger), but I think our top teams would match up to their top teams pretty well. Actually, since we have more teams we could just leave out our worst teams and we would have a chance to sweep.

Personally, I would like to have a B1G vs. SEC challenge in late November. It would be great to see  a team like Minnesota wax a team like Georgia in the snow.

Michigan Arrogance

December 1st, 2019 at 8:05 PM ^

See, this is the thing that's infuriated me since I realized it, about 3 hours ago. When Carr was coach, that staff would target states specifically that had flagship troubles. GA when UGa was down. Texas when Texas was down. CA when they were down. Not Fla when they were Miami, UF/FSU dominant.

M hasn't been able to pull talent from CA, TX. MI, IL, PA and OH for all the reasons discussed, won't cut it anymore. Why this M staff hasn't taken advantage of the UT disaster, the TAMU SEC shift, and the CA schools being in the tank the last 5 years is beyond me. Christ, Harbaugh was coach in CA for a decade. WTF?

DrMantisToboggan

December 1st, 2019 at 8:24 PM ^

We've gotten 6 recruits from CA under Jim, all of them 4 stars of varying degrees. One 4-star from CA every cycle is pretty good, given the distance and all the other schools that want to poach CA kids too. 

I also submit there's been a focus on recruiting GA, FL, and TX as well. We've signed 9 GA kids (~2 per class) under Jim, 18 FL kids (~3.5 per class), and 5 TX kids (1 per class).

We're averaging 7.5 commits per cycle from CA, FL, GA, and TX. That's not bad in a ~25 person class, when you consider how hard we also hit NJ, the DMV, and IL. We're recruiting the right geographic areas, we just need to take the next step.

A Lot of Milk

December 1st, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^

I feel like they've had a decent bit of success in California? Crawford, Long, Charbonnet to name a few

The unfortunate timing is that Stanford (due to Harbaugh) has been punching above their weight class and I feel like we appeal in the same aspects as Stanford does. And in that kinda battle, the home team usually wins out 

iMBlue2

December 1st, 2019 at 7:20 PM ^

How that team is not better is astounding...great facilities, boosters, fan base...endowment...in the most football rich area in the world.

Phaedrus

December 1st, 2019 at 9:56 PM ^

I think they're hurt more from OSU taking all of their state's best recruits than from any of the local competition. A&M doesn't even play in their conference anymore. While they have to share the good players with those schools, the great players have been ending up in Columbus.

This actually has me hoping that Texas becomes good again. The one thing that baffles me about recruiting is that these kids visit Columbus and decide they want to spend a couple years of their lives there rather than Austin, Ann Arbor, or Madison. You would think that a bunch of five stars would get together and decide to prioritize location. Tom Herman needs to find his inner Pete Carroll.

When Mack Brown left I was super happy that Texas had fallen but it's really disrupted the college football ecosystem. OSU and OU have used it to become the uncontested big fishes in their conferences.

ThisGuyFawkes

December 1st, 2019 at 7:30 PM ^

Where are all the Harbaugh can't recruit posters on this thread? Excluding 2017, Texas has had a better class than Michigan every year since 2015 (in most cases a significantly better one). They also play in a way easier conference and have made the "home run" coaching hire in the last 5 years. And yet, Michigan > Texas; Harbaugh >> Herman.

I say this not to negate any valid criticisms of the program, but rather as a reminder for us all to take a deep breath and realize that all things considered, we are still in a good spot.

Sambojangles

December 1st, 2019 at 7:39 PM ^

I'm with you. It's frustrating to not beat OSU or win the B1G in 5 years of Harbaugh, but I'm reminded that things can always be worse, and Texas is maybe the best example. 

I'll admit that Harbaugh's upside is probably not as high as we thought in December 2014, but we know he's not going to crater the program, and that the most important thing to build a winning program is stability. So, I'm willing to grit my teeth and wait for it all to come together for Harbaugh, and weather the upcoming changes to the college football landscape. In other words, 9-3 is okay for now with the hope of 12-0 in the future. 

BLUEinRockford

December 1st, 2019 at 8:04 PM ^

In 2016, UM loses two Heartbreakers to Iowa and osu. Win either one and they are in the CCG.

In 2018, Maryland comes within inches of upsetting osu. This would have sent UM to the CCG.

A couple breaks or bounces our way, we have a whole different narrative today.

It sucks losing to osu every year, but we're in a much better place now than we were before Harbaugh.

A Lot of Milk

December 1st, 2019 at 8:11 PM ^

I agree with your overall point, but will amend the fact that Michigan beating Iowa in 2016 would not have sent us to the CCG. OSU would've won the three way tie breaker with us and Penn state. You could argue that an 11-1 Michigan team with a controversial loss maybe could've had a playoff argument, but after seeing what Clemson did to OSU, it's probably best we didn't get thrown in that fire 

NateVolk

December 1st, 2019 at 7:40 PM ^

 

This also lends itself to the point that the hot protege or right hand might be weaker than he appeared on first glance.

And when a guy takes over a stacked deck, those weaknesses might not manifest until the whole operation and players are more his than the genius mentor's.

Seen in the past with successions at Miami in the early 2000s. Oregon more recently.  At first it looked like it would all roll on forever. 

One never knows until it plays itself out for a couple years. Until the protege has his hands on all aspects for an extended period of time.

A Lot of Milk

December 1st, 2019 at 8:15 PM ^

I'll say it that I fucking refuse to believe Ryan Day will keep this up

He's going to lose coaches that he'll have to replace and he'll have to recruit and develop players after urban's have run their course

There's no way he can continue making every right move and getting every single bounce like urban did. There HAS to be a drop off eventually. How different is their season if Fields isn't eligible to play? We'll know the answer after he leaves for the NFL next year and day has to replace him