Some context on quarterback recruiting and development
In a recent thread, a poster lamented Coach Harbaugh's recruitment and development of quarterbacks. Certainly, there have been some misses. But, there's not quite an exact science to it. Not only have recruiting ranking agencies terribly missed, but some of the better coaches in college football have missed. Further, there have been some dynamic quarterbacks who have won big, and been drafted high, who didn't register a blip on recruitment sites or coaches radar.
From 2014-2017, here are quarterbacks (pro style) ranked in the top 100 overall recruits -
2014 - Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Keller Chryst, David Cornwell
2015 - Josh Rosen, Blake Barnett, Deondre Francois, Brady White, Jake Browning, Ricky Town, Drew Lock
2016 - Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason, KJ Costello,, Malik Henry, Feleipe Franks, Brandon Peters, Dwayne Haskins
2017 - Davis Mills, Hunter Johnson, Jake Fromm, Jack Sears
Now, how many of those guys became great, or developed into NFL talent. These 22 players were the highest ranked Pro-Style quarterbacks for 4 recruiting cycles. Basically EVERY head coach missed on these guys. There's one Heisman Finalist in the bunch, two 1st round picks, 9 who were drafted, ZERO franchise quarterbacks, and a half dozen or so that only the most rabid of college football fans would remember.
Even the GOAT Saban has 2 misses in there! There are a handful of qb stars in each class. How they turn into stars is not necessarily about ranking or development. Something has to be inside of each guy, and there is no formula to detect it. For example, here are some successful NFL quarterbacks, and some successful college quarterbacks and their overall recruit ranking.
Russell Wilson - 1102
Dak Prescott - 601
Patrick Mahomes - 398
Joe Burrow - 280
Baker Mayfield - 1029
Josh Allen - Unrated
Justin Herbert - 659
Mac Jones - 399
Marcus Mariota - 491
October 8th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
Cade isn't a "development" QB just cuz he has less starzzz than JJ.
Milton or Villari are more in line with what you're talking about.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
QB maybe a position where the physical aspect is less than half of why a player is successful in the NFL. For many of the other positions - it is near impossibility unless one has some basic size, speed and weight parameters.
That maybe why some of QBs successful in the pros were not as highly rated early in high school. The top players then didn't have figure out how to adjust for their physical limitations - later in college or afterwards - when they had to, many can't make that adjustment.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
QB maybe a position where the physical aspect is less than half of why a player is successful in the NFL. For many of the other positions - it is near impossibility unless one has some basic size, speed and weight parameters.
That maybe why some of QBs successful in the pros were not as highly rated early in high school. The top players then didn't have figure out how to adjust for their physical limitations - later in college or afterwards - when they had to, many can't make that adjustment.
October 7th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
I think a few folks missed on Tom Brady too.
October 7th, 2021 at 9:33 PM ^
Cade McNamara = Good
Yay!
October 7th, 2021 at 9:56 PM ^
There is no doubt that assessing and developing QB talent is a legitimately difficult task. Determining the combination of physical, mental and emotional makeup required to perform at an elite level comes with no predictive formula-and this is only the beginning of the conundrum. So you pick a kid with a set of physical skills you have to have without really having a way of knowing for sure how they stack up on all the "intangibles". Then there is practice-impossible to simulate the biggest difference making component of QB execution-pressure...finding the open receiver under duress and delivering an on-target throw while getting drilled.
Now. Of the current Michigan QB's HS tapes I thought Cade's, in summation, showed the most promise. JJ's gave me some pause, not from his physical talent upside, but as I see him interact with his teammates...I think he may well be one of the special ones. I believe the Cade or JJ question is being handled well right now. Cade is #1 but JJ is increasingly being given opportunities to progress in real time. I think Michigan has two starter-quality QBs.
October 7th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
I'm sure somebody else has said this but in case they didn't, the obvious lesson here is to recruit off the dual threat QB list, not the pro style list. How many Heismans were won off the dual threat list?
October 7th, 2021 at 10:04 PM ^
It seems like you agree that Harbaugh is at best average when it comes to identifying and developing QB talent.
October 7th, 2021 at 10:44 PM ^
I agree that they're all average! More luck is involved than anything else! OSU recruited and developed one qb who was drafted high - Haskins. Everybody else developed elsewhere (Burrow) or transferred in on the verge of greatness (Fields). Every other qb was a runner who couldn't throw or read a defense to save their lives. Dabo, in a dozen years, hit on one unicorn (Lawrence) and one guy who developed into one of the best EVER. Saban? Tua came in good, Jones developed, and he had a slew of game managers in a dozen years.
It's possible that Harbaugh has just hit on 2 studs back to back... in 7 years.
October 8th, 2021 at 12:54 AM ^
This is supposed to be Harbaugh's unique talent, so being average at it is a knock against him.
By the way, your beef is with the recruiting services. The coaches you called out have consistently pumped out Heisman-caliber QBs with the same quality of recruit/transfer as Harbaugh. Dismissing that as just luck is absurd. Hopefully Cade and JJ do become studs and change our minds about Harbaugh's QB whispering, but let's give credit where it's due.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
What I'm saying is that there isn't a unique talent to qb recruitment and development. If there were, Saban wouldn't have as many busts as he has Heisman candidates. If there were, OSU wouldn't have needed to get the Fields transfer.
No coach can make a star out of an average player. Harbaugh got the best out of Speight. He helped Shea be less interception prone. He basically got Rudock drafted. He helped those guys develop, but neither had the qualities that manifest into greatness. Jimbo Fisher, another so-called quarterback whisperer, has one big hit (Jameis Winston) in over a decade of coaching.
There is no formula. If a player has it show him how best to utilize his gift. For players without it, get what you can out of them.
October 8th, 2021 at 7:50 AM ^
When you recruit consistent 5* teams you have a much better chance of somebody developing into a star. Fun fact - Clemson's offense only has 2 - 5* players who start (I looked this up 3 weeks ago so that may have changed). One of them is Dj Uiagalelei, who has looked like a huge bust so far. It just goes to show, even the top players do not live up to their hype.
Now to be fair DJ still has time to develop.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:07 AM ^
All I care about is what they do in college. Developing into NFL talent or not is completely irrelevant.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:14 AM ^
1) You shouldn't separate "pro-style" and "dual-threat". Just look at the top X qb's each year, no matter which designation.
2) You shouldn't consider NFL draft position or NFL success at all, ONLY college achievements.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
In the case of Cade...he was a ND flip and apparently pretty high up on Bama's list too. So, maybe Cade and JJ will be the breakout QBs under Harbaugh at UM. Its still early days for both but I think the mental make up is likely to be the tell and that will not be known until this team is fighting from behind or in a close one late.
As for Harbaugh..hell he's not happy either with the QB development or much else that came before this year..hence the wholesale staff change including a dedicated QB coach. He wants more and better...and no doubt he wants to see it a hell of a lot more than we do.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
The implied thesis is, I think, that great college QBs are born, not made through coaching and development from high school to college. Basically, rankings aren't very accurate, and so good QB play is basically luck of the draw. You take a guy every year, and he might turn into a Heisman candidate and he might transfer. I'm somewhat sympathetic to the argument, and indeed I think that we've been unlucky in all of Harbaugh's QB recruits to date - Malzone, Peters, McCaffrey, Milton, even Patterson - didn't grow into the type of QB we need.
Is it's possible it's just a run of bad luck, that all have been subpar? I suppose. But, like, it shouldn't be so hard to get a hit. Maybe McNamara and McCarthy are the ones that will be. But in the last 5 years, OSU and Clemson have managed to get two NFL first-round QBs each, and Alabama has three (including Hurts, Tua, and Jones).
I'm generally willing to admit there is more luck involved in football, particularly the vagaries of recruiting, scouting, and coaching teenagers. But it's a stretch to believe the good teams just keep getting lucky, and Michigan, with all of it's advantages and great coaches, does not.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
OSU, Bama and Clemson are more than just 'good' teams though. The run they've had ensure that they are going to get the attention of the absolute cream of the crop every year so their QB rooms are loaded. Thats insurance against the occasional bust, injury and transfer..an insurance policy that few teams have. Harbaugh has had 10 win seasons that fell apart late because of injuries and lack of depth at key positions, esp QB. Thats one of the reasons it make sense that he hasn't had Cade run much...he might just be waiting until he's convinced that JJ is ready just in case.
October 8th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
I don't think that's true though. Maybe for Alabama, as they've been able to upgrade from good not great QB play to the three I mentioned over the last four years. It took Saban a decade though to really upgrade his QB room with the cream of the crop, as you mention.
Clemson was still Clemsoning in 2012 when Watson committed, losing to USC and FSU pretty much every year. It wasn't until he showed up on campus in 2014 that they were able to elevate above the rest of the ACC, and put them in a position to get Lawrence's commitment in 2016 - before Clemson had even won a National Championship. I'm not intimately familiar with Clemson recruiting, but I don't think they've really gotten their pick of QBs every year that Swinney has been there; seems like they just hit on two really good ones in a row and rode them to the playoffs. Now they do have a top-rated QB in Uiagalelei, and they've already lost two games. Which I think goes back to the OP's point - QB recruiting is as much of a crapshoot as anything.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
Great post, and yes, GREAT CONTEXT.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
Great post, and yes, GREAT CONTEXT.
October 8th, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
Quarterback is the one position that you just can't evaluate based solely on film or measurables. A QB could be 6-6, 250 lbs, have the strongest arm known to man with pinpoint accuracy and run at 4.4 and still turn out to be a bust because they don't have the mental make up for the position (sounds like a great tight end though!). There needs to be extensive interviewing and psychoanalysis in order to gauge what kind of mental make up he has. Then you have to consider their competition level, their supporting cast, and how complex the offense they are asked to run is. How good are they at improvising? How do they respond after fumbling or throwing an interception or getting hit hard? Do they welcome contact ala Andrew Luck or fold like a chair? Do they keep their cool under high pressure situations or succumb to mistakes?
For NFL teams, this is still the hardest thing to nail in the draft. Reasons why players like Jamarcus Russell are picked #1. College football is even harder to analyze. You have less of a sample size, against worse competition, with simpler offensive and defensive schemes, not even factoring that an 18 year old's mental make up can be dramatically different from a 21 year old. On top of that, most coaches not named Saban, Dabo or Day can't take the time to actually analyze QBs beyond their camp and HS tape because the competition to get these guys is huge. You have to be offering these kids when they are 16, when you literally know nothing about them besides that they look good in HS.
This is also probably why dual threat QBs often pan out more often than pro-style QBs. You can more easily predict whether a QB can simply out athlete the competition than if they can pick them apart mentally. Then there is outside factors like the supporting cast that surrounds the QB and how early they are thrown into the fire. Some guys thrive when given an opportunity, some guys need to be eased in. Is the OL going to let defenses pound the guy? Are your WRs going to get enough separation to give him confidence in his throws? Is the running game and defense strong enough to take pressure off the QB? Coaches don't know any of this until you put them in those situations.
So it is no surprise that QB has the most bust potential. The one thing I think Harbaugh does that might hinder QB development is that he may pressure them into thinking too much and not reacting or playing instinctually. Our QBs always look like they are second guessing themselves when mistakes happen. There is a lack of confidence and I think that permeates from Harbaugh's lack of confidence in them.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
Tom Brady at 6th pick is the bar to set.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
I for one am glad you posted this. It helps me to care less about recruiting rankings and that makes my life better.
October 8th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
First we need a better definition of what a bust is. Can you really call Jake from State Fromm a bust? As a freshmen in 2017:
- Led GA to the 2017 SEC Championship
- Beat Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl
- Came up short to Alabama in the National Championship
Passing
Comp Att Pct Yards Y/A TD Int QBR
181 291 62.2 2615 9.0 24 7 160.1
Rushing
Att Yards Avg TD
55 79 1.4 3
In 2018:
- Helped lead Georgia to an 11–3
- Passed for 2,749 passing yards, 30 touchdowns with just six interceptions
Passing
Comp Att Pct Yards Y/A TD Int QBR
207 307 67.4 2761 9.0 30 6 171.3
Rushing
Att Yards Avg TD
41 -27 -0.7 0
In the 2019:
- Led Georgia to the SEC Championship game
- Beat Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.
Passing
Comp Att Pct Yards Y/A TD Int QBR
234 385 60.8 2870 7.4 24 5 141.2
Rushing
Att Yards Avg TD
38 -12 -0.3 0
During this time Jacob Eason, and Justin Fields both left GA.
October 8th, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^
Recruiting can certainly be a crapshoot, especially the QB position. Cade has looked solid this season and JJ seems to have a lot of potential. There have been guys like Kurt Warner who have come out of nowhere to have a Hall of Fame career. Hopefully JJ is the game changer we all want him to be and Cade can be solid until he is ready.