So you have a basketball program again, what can we expect?

May's work has been incredible so far. Absolutely incredible. 

• It seems he has the donors on board because you can't build a team through the portal without NIL money
• It appears he's in-step with admissions on who to recruit out of the portal
• He has built what looks like a very good diverse coaching staff of experience, recruiting, and development backgrounds
• He built a roster which should be competitive in year one, by targeting and getting his primary options
• The roster is also built for next year without requiring significant turnover
• He added two Freshman guards to start building the longer term roster

The guy has easily earned an A++++++++++++++++++++++++++ in his early efforts.

As far as expectations, here's a little context for the roster. 

Here are the 247 transfer portal rankings:

• Wolf (19)
• *Goldin (33)
• Gayle Jr (48)
• Donaldson (73)
• Walters (152)
• Jones (237)

This ranks Michigan as the #5 portal class, which probably moves up 1 or 2 more spots once Goldin is official. 

Per position rankings, the guards are good but not the top available. Gayle Jr is the 24th ranked guard one spot behind Dug McDaniel. Donaldson is the #34 ranked guard. Jones was significantly below that.

The two centers are #5 & #7. AWESOME!

Walters is the 51st ranked forward. 

The majority of schools use the portal to build on an existing roster. May had to use it to build a roster.  Michigan's starting floor is lower than most teams. 

That said, I think May has done an excellent job getting players who make a team better than their individual parts. Guys like Jones and Wolf have not benefited from playing with other good players. While they are up transferring, the key skills I think they will contribute easily transfer across all levels of competition. Wolf's passing and floor spacing. Jones' shooting, decision making, and defense. 

Guys like Gayle Jr., Donaldson, and Walters already know what P5 basketball is like and should be able to reach or exceed their previous performance as none of them were the key leaders for their previous teams and all are young enough to improve from development. 

Looking at their previous stats the team looks like this: 

• Donaldson: 6.7 pts, 3.2 ast, 2.4 reb, 1.4 stl
• Gayle Jr: 13.5 pts, 3.1 ast, 4.6 reb, 0.7 stl
• Jones: 12.1 pts, 3.7 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.5 stl
•  Walters: 5.4 pts, 0.4 ast, 2.4 reb, 0.2 stl, 0.2 blk
• Wolf: 14.1 pts, 2.4 ast, 9.7 reb, 1.0 stl, 1.3 blk
• Goldin: 15.7 pts, 0.7 ast, 6.0 reb, 0.5 stl, 1.6 blk
• Tschetter: 4.7 pts, 0.6 ast, 2.4 reb, 0.2 stl, 0.1 blk
• Burnett: 9.6 pts, 2.4 ast, 4.1 rbs, 0.9 stl
• GWIII: 1.2 pts, 0.3 ast, 0.3 reb, 0.1 stl, 

That adds up to per game averages of:

83 pts, 16.8 ast, 35.5 reb, 6.5 stl, 3.2 blk (blocks are front court only)

For reference, here's what the Final Four team stats were:

UConn: 81.4 pts, 18.7 ast, 38.8 reb, 6.2 stl, 5.4 blk

Purdue: 82.3 pts, 18.5 ast, 40.4 reb, 5.4 stl, 3.6 blk

Alabama: 90.8 pts, 16.1 ast, 39.6 reb, 7.3 stl, 4.2 blk

NC State: 75.6 pts, 13.1 ast, 35.3 reb, 7.2 stl, 3.6 blk

And for comparison sake alone, Michigan's stats for this past season:

72.9 pts, 12.5 ast, 35.4 reb, 4.2 stl, 3.6 blk

On paper...

Michigan has a team which should score more consistently. This team will have more scoring options with fewer weaknesses to exploit across various lineups.  

Have a better flowing offense due to improved passing. I'm not worried about the turnover issues at previous schools. I trust May to clean that up plus all of the guys will be more experienced. 

Michigan will probably have issues rebounding against some teams. A huge caveat needs to be said here. I loved Coach Howard, but what his teams did the past 2.5 years when it came to boxing out and rebounding was absolutely atrocious. Any coach and group of players was going to improve in this area over last year. So, the rebounding will be better than what we have seen, but rebounding is one of the areas where transferring up in competition is very hard. Wolf & Goldin will not be able to rebound on size alone. Jones, Goldin, and Wolf will find it more difficult to box out bigger guys on teams like MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin where they emphasize the importance of rebounding and have the athletes to do it. 

Play better defense. I really like the length and flexibility of this team. May will have options for defensive sets and rotations. There should be fewer weaknesses to exploit with regards to athleticism and I trust the players and coaches will hold themselves accountable on exerting effort. Side note, in the Wolf Hello write up, there is a video clip against Kansas where Hunter Dickinson is closing out on Wolf for a three and he doesn't even raise a hand and stops his run through short. Anyone can shoot over a 7 foot card board cut out. That's the kind of shit I don't expect to see anymore. 

What is realistic to expect?

Donaldson will probably improve his numbers across the board due to increased playing time and being the primary PG. 

Gayle Jr will probably improve slightly due to development and being on a better team. 

Jones will probably be about the same or he may take a slight regression. There is a good chance his assists go up. 

Burnett's stats will probably go down due to fewer minutes. 

Hopefully GWIII's stats go up as a back up instant offense guard for 5-8 consistent minutes a game. Much of that will depend on how good Pippen is. Regardless, a fifth guard will be needed. 

Walters probably improves due to development and the need for his minutes and floor spacing. 

Tschetter's stats probably go down due to decrease in minutes. I expect an increase in offensive fouls and fights as he will not constantly be winded and will probably run more people over.

Wolf's scoring and rebounding stats will probably go down due to reduced minutes and an increase in competition. His assists & blocks may go up as he will not need to conserve energy being the back up center with spot minutes at the four in a big lineup. 

Goldin's stats probably go down a little due to the increase in competition level and probably slightly reduced minutes. 

Mix that all together and I think a reasonable conference outlook is 9-11, 10-10, maybe 11-9 if May is as good as we think. Not enough is known about the non-conference to posit any guesses. While I think Brian's thoughts of a 6 seed are a little optimistic, I do think this team should be in solid position for a bid going into the Big Tournament.