Slowing Down the OSU Offense

Submitted by NeverPunt on November 21st, 2021 at 1:56 PM

In honor of hate week, I thought I'd look at the games that OSU has looked mortal in on the offensive side of the board. There have been three games where they scored 33 points or less this year. They are 2-1 in those games. There have been some close-ish games (Minnesota (huh?) Tulsa (huh?) and Purdue (ok))  where they ultimately pulled away to final scores that would be unappealing for this Saturday's results, so I'm going to exclude those here. I'm not and Xs and Os guy so just looking at this from a box score/data perspective.

Game One: Oregon, Week 2, Result: Loss 35-28

OSU offense put up 600 yards on the Oregon defense. So how did they hold them to 28 points?

OSU Drive Chart:

  • 9 plays, 44 yards, Result: Turnover on downs
  • 12 plays, 61 yards, Result: Punt
  • 3 plays, 1 yd: Result: Punt
  • 5 plays, 70 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 6 plays, 42 yards, Result: Turnover on downs
  • 4 plays, 62 yards, Result: END OF HALF
  • 7 plays, 75 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 11 plays, 67 yards, Result: Turnover on downs
  • 8 plays, 73 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 8 plays, 75 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 4 plays, 14 yards, Result: Punt
  • 6 plays, 17 yards, Result: Interception
  • 2 plays, 0 yards, Result: END OF GAME

Bend but don't break defense, largely. They gave up very few backbreaking plays, forcing OSU into long drives (for them). OSU scored only once on a drive of 5 or less plays.  Day also went for it twice on 4th down deep in Oregon territory and they failed to convert both times, and a third time around the 40 which also failed to convert. They were 2-5 overall on 4th down. Oregon forced one turnover (INT) and didn't have any of their own. OSU was also called for 8 penalties to Oregon's four. 

Lessons learned: Bend but don't break can work against OSU if you can get stops in the red zone. Need to play mistake free football (penalties) and win the turnover battle. Also need to keep the Michigan offense on the field in sustained drives. Oregon only had two three and outs the whole game, both late in the 4th quarter. If you are going to have short drives on offense, they better end in explosive plays and touchdowns.

 

Game Two: Penn State, Week 8, Result: Win 33-24

OSU offense puts up 466 yards on the Penn State defense. So how did they hold them to 33 points? (OSU defense returned a fumble for a touchdown so actually how did they hold them to 26 points?)

OSU Drive Chart:

  • 4 Plays, 21 yards, Result: Fumble
  • 5 plays, 15 yards, Result: Punt
  • 11 plays, 57 yards, Result: Field Goal
  • 9 plays, 36 yards, Result: Punt
  • 3 plays, 1 yard, Result: Punt
  • 5 plays, 61 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • PSU Fumble, Return for Touchdown
  • 7 plays, 69 yards, Result: Field Goal
  • 3 plays, 71 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 7 plays, 62 yards, Result: Turnover on Downs
  • 8 plays, 20 yards, Result: Field Goal
  • 8 plays, 69 yards, Result: Field Goal
  • 2 plays, -3 yards, END OF GAME

Unlike the Oregon game, PSU lost the turnover battle here 3 to 1. They may have had a chance to win this game if they win the turnover battle.  OSU has only two quick hitting touchdown drives of 5 or less plays, so like the Oregon game, PSU is getting stops in the red zone to force field goals and not giving up too many big plays. Their defense also responded well when the offense turned it over, holding OSU to field goal after they picked off Clifford at the PSU 20 and forcing a punt after they lost a fumble around midfield. OSU was again called for more penalties with 10 in this game vs PSUs 8.

Lessons learned:  Again, don't give up the big plays. Respond to adversity if you do have turnovers, but even better don't have them. This is a 2 point game without that fumble return for a TD, and PSU is up one without giving up the field goal on the short field post-INT. PSU also has a number of short drives that probably cost them the game as well. Shorten the game, reduce the number of drives for OSU, and hope for some luck/wins in Penalties and Turnovers.

 

Game Three: @Nebraska, Week 9, Result: Win 26-17

OSU puts up 495 yards, so how did they hold them to just 26 points?

OSU Drive Chart:

  • 8 plays, 32 yards, Result: Turnover on Downs
  • 8 plays, 51 yards, Result: interception
  • 3 plays, 4 yards, Result: Punt
  • 11 plays, 57 yards, Result: Field Goal
  • 7 plays, 49 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 1 play, 75 yards, Result: Touchdown
  • 3 plays, 6 yards: Result: Punt
  • 6 plays, 19 Yards: Result: END OF HALF
  • 5 plays, 23 yards: Result Field Goal
  • 6 plays, 20 yards, Result: Punt
  • 3 plays, 18 yards, Result, Interception
  • 10 plays, 0 yards, Result, Missed FG. (penalty and sack negated progress on drive)
  • 9 plays, 58 yards, Result: FG
  • 2 plays, -1 yards, Result: END OF GAME

OSU lost the turnover battle here, as in the Oregon game with 2 picks from Stroud vs 1 Nebraska turnover. Stopping those two drives helped out Nebraska's effort here.  Nebraska again gave up only one quick TD to OSU, and forced them into three drives of 8 plays or more than resulted in no points.  Nebraska offensively had only two drives of 6 plays or more, so they weren't following the script of keeping OSU off the field, yielding a couple more drives than Oregon or PSU.

Lessons Learned: Nebraska finds interesting ways to lose? Honestly if they had any offense this game would have been even closer, but they were fortunate to get the two turnovers off Stroud. OSU again lost the penalty battle with 8 infractions to Nebraska's 6. Otherwise this game didn't give much lesson wise that could be useful.

TL: DR

We've seen the PSU defense and Nebraska defense, and they're both good but not anything we can't replicate. OSU is going to get their yards, but how they get them matters. Don't give up the quick hitting score, make them work for it. Win the turnover battle, have less penalties, and get stops in the red zone and you at least have a chance.  The OSU defense is good but they've surrendered a lot of points and yards this year to teams that aren't better than Michigan.  Tulsa had 500 yards of offense, Purdue had 481, and Minnesota had 408.  If our defense can play a penalty-free game, get some turnovers, and bend but don't break, there's at least a chance to make this a game? Maybe?

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buckeyejonross

November 21st, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^

stroud is a lot different than fields and haskins. fields was a little slower to process stuff, and he'd hold the ball a ton, and took a lot of sacks. haskins was terrified of being hit, and would throw off platform under pressure a lot. stroud doesn't really get hit. he will throw it away, or make a dumb throw on the run into coverage long before he takes a sack. he also is not afraid like haskins was, and will definitely step up and throw despite getting crushed. 

it's an interesting matchup, because osu's o-line weakness is in the interior, and michigan's d-line weakness is the interior too. i think michigan will need to find creative ways to get ojabo and hutchinson attacking an osu guard or center, otherwise, i expect a lot of stalemates at the tackles with stroud stepping up into a clean pocket. hutchinson and ojabo are great, but idk how often they stunt and amoeba rush the a-gaps. you guys would know that answer.

Joined: 07/27/2010

MGoPoints: 13808

funkywolve

November 21st, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^

Who cares if he"s a bust in the nfl? We, UM fans, hang our NFL QB hat on a guy who hasn't played at UM in 20+ yrs.  

I'd love to get to a point where UM qb"s are in the talk for the Heisman on an annual basis and putting up video game type numbers in the passing game.

Over the last 10+ years OSU has had, to varying degrees,  a clear advantage over UM at the QB position.  Until that changes, it's going to be tough to beat OSU.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20247

Mgoczar

November 21st, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^

Are you stupid ? I'm commenting on what the buckeye slappy is alluding to: Stroud is "better" than previous OSU QBs. 

And you're of the same "M fan but shitting on Michigan non stop" Ilk. OSU doesnt have better QB, they have better WRs and scheme or 5 star recruits. 

Whatever. Tired of Arguing with stupid "fans".

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

Bucknutz36

November 22nd, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^

He said Stroud is different, not better.  And he's comparing Stroud the college player to Haskins and Fields as college players.  You are the one that equated that to how they will pan out in the NFL. But if you're still hanging your hat on how OSU QB's perform in the NFL, you're going to have nothing to argue there either in the near future.  They don't recruit guys like Barrett and Braxton anymore, they recruit the best of the best, and if they can run as well, even better.  If you just assume guys like Stroud and Ewers will be NFL busts simply because of OSU's history with QB's in the NFL(under different coaches who recruited different style QB's), again, you will lose that argument soon enough anyway.  As for Fields, he's played a handful of games for an awful offense and HC, it's way too premature to call him a bust

Joined: 07/23/2013

MGoPoints: 185

PeacefulBuck

November 21st, 2021 at 8:58 PM ^

Neutralize? Like in holding both of them sackless in a game? Hell no, no one is holding both of them sackless combined. This is the best OL in CFB that has two tackles playing guard though. It was meant for pass pro. Having said that, Hutch and Ojabo will definitely get to Stroud once or twice. For our sake, I just hope it doesn’t rattle him. He hasn’t faced constant pressure all year.

Joined: 05/18/2021

MGoPoints: 2286

JonnyHintz

November 22nd, 2021 at 5:26 AM ^

No one is holding them sackless combined… but that’s just happened against Maryland…

Our edge rushers are good. Really freakin good. But it’s not overly difficult to scheme around that. Get the ball out quickly being the easiest. OSU getting the ball out to any of their ultra-talented WRs quickly probably isn’t going to be much of an issue. 
 

It’s not as simple as assuming that because we have two great pass rushers, they’re going to have a huge impact. OSU is GOING to devise a gameplan to negate our best assets and attack our weaknesses. 

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48420

BoFan

November 21st, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^

The key question is how long does Stroud hold on to the ball compared to other quarterbacks we faced.  I would guess that Ohio’s strategy will be a no huddle offense with a lot of quick throws on crossing routes.  They will mix in some runs to mess with our defensive personnel.

Joined: 03/09/2012

MGoPoints: 19943

OfficerRabbit

November 21st, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^

This is what I'm expecting as well. A heavy dose of screens, quick slants, and shallow crossing routes until they can figure out how much time the O-line can give Stroud. If the running game is productive and Stroud gets a few seconds, I expect play action to start getting folded in by the second or third series. No doubt about it, the two DE's will be the focus of practice this week... they're both wrecking balls.

Joined: 10/27/2013

MGoPoints: 3087

buckeyejonross

November 21st, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^

I don't really agree with this. for one, we really don't use tempo much. for two, we don't run a ton of crossing routes, because no one plays man on us. well, purdue tried, and that was a disaster. i mean, we still run them, for sure, but mesh concepts are no longer the bread and butter like you noted with barrett and haskins.

we run a lot more rpo than we ever have under day. and we throw more than we run. most of the passing offense is rpo, intermediate zone beaters, relief bubbles, and the occasional pa deep shot. stroud doesn't hold the ball long. the offense thrives in the 10-15 yard windows.

Joined: 07/27/2010

MGoPoints: 13808

DelhiWolverine

November 21st, 2021 at 7:59 PM ^

Day seems to scheme to the weakness of his opponents and focus on beating you where you have the greatest weaknesses. In the past that has been our inferior DBs playing man coverage on OSU’s NFL WRs. This year, Michigan’s defense doesn’t have a particularly glaring weakness. The secondary isn’t great, but they are good and the scheme Macdonald runs helps make up for deficiencies that were present in Don Browns defense. DTs are good, DEs are Excellent. Linebackers are solid, but if I recall, Nebraska has the greatest success scoring points on out guys by messing with the LBs. Will Day do the same?

 One thing that dies have me hopeful is we have seen Macdonald make good in-game adjustments all year. He will need to anticipate what Day will try to do and be ready with some counter moves. 

Joined: 11/26/2017

MGoPoints: 11910

matt1114

November 21st, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^

One big thing in my opinion is that we need to slow the game down. MSU seems like each of their drives were all a minute long, so no wonder OSU scored a ton. If they would've let Kenneth Walker run the ball a bit more than 6 times, the game would've slowed down a bit, he would've gotten them a few first downs, and the time of possession would've been a bit more equal. It literally just seems like bad coaching to me. OSU had the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

Joined: 01/08/2021

MGoPoints: 6873

blueheron

November 21st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^

You're assuming Walker would've run successfully on that defense. You might also be assuming that OSU hadn't considered that possibility.

- - -

A ten-minute drive with a bunch of short -- and, important, successful -- runs would be ideal. That's another universe, though. Even Georgia and Alabama don't (and maybe can't) do that.

Joined: 03/26/2009

MGoPoints: 31033

M-Dog

November 21st, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^

The risk of "slowing the game down" is that you over-emphasize the run and run into a box that OSU will surely pack.  Then you go 3 and out or 6 and out without scoring points.

Punts are poison against OSU.  You punt twice in a row, the game is over.

We will have to keep pace with OSU's scoring.  We need a plan to score 40+ points.  We can not expect to slow the game down to the point where they score less than that.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257517

Ghost of Fritz…

November 21st, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^

But...as I posted elsewhere, it is really hard to imagine Michigan winning the game if OSU has more than 12 offensive possessions. 

So Michigan is going to have to play to shorten the game somewhat. 

That does not have to mean 32 carries for Haskins between the tackles.  It can be done with edge runs, delay screens, wheel routes, shorter crossing routes, AND a good number of between the tackles rushing.  

Michigan has to shorten the number of possessions, but also avoid just predictable running between the tackles on 1st and 2d downs...

While I want Michigan to plan for scoring 40+, if you look at Michigan's scoring against other Big Ten Teams plus Washington, Michigan scored 40+ just once.  I doubt Michigan can score 40+ on Saturday.  They have to aim to keep OSU to 34 or fewer points....and that for sure means allowing OSU no more than 12 offensive possessions....

Joined: 10/04/2014

MGoPoints: 23880

M-Dog

November 21st, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^

 

TING!!

You can't do the "slow-the-game-down-body-blows-to-soften-them-up-for-the-fourth-quarter" thing against Ohio State.  They will quickly run away from you.  

Ohio State is not Washington or Wisconsin or Penn State.  They will not cooperate by not scoring any points while we dork around for 3 quarters running into stacked boxes, punting, and playing defense. 

We will need to score points to keep pace with them.

Teams have shown that they can stop our running game if they decide to.  We have to take what the defense gives us and exploit it.  We have the horses to do it and we need to use them.

 

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257517

BoFan

November 21st, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^

Disagree partially.  The strength and weakness with Ohio’s offense is that all their scoring comes from big plays and not from sustained drives. If you “prevent” big plays and slow down their offense then I would agree with “slow down”   

But they key to slowing down ohio is not about our offense.  We will need a defensive scheme that prevents the big plays while keeping them from making first downs.  I would imagine this would have to combine a lot of nickel and disguised coverages while getting pressure and especially TFLs on each set of downs. We have the personal to do this. We need to fix the D so that we don’t get caught with personnel issues against a hurry up offense. We need new looks that aren’t on film. We need our DEs and DBs to play their best game. 

Joined: 03/09/2012

MGoPoints: 19943

PeacefulBuck

November 21st, 2021 at 9:07 PM ^

Don’t shit down your leg the first two drives and let OSU score off of your mistakes and you can control the game. You can not play from behind us though. Sparty wasn’t built for it, and though you guys are built better for it, you don’t want to get in a race with our offense. They were down 14-0 within a blink of an eye and it was history from there.

Joined: 05/18/2021

MGoPoints: 2286

FrankTigers2

November 21st, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^

Problem is that none of those games other than Oregon was in doubt.  
 

purdue was not close…they got a ton of yards after the game was decided. 
 

nebraska made it closer in score than it really was.  
 

OSU’s answer to their red zone worries is by scoring on chunk plays so they don’t get in the red zone.  
 

the one way to beat OSU is by getting constant pressure on stroud.  

Joined: 06/14/2018

MGoPoints: 1066

SD Larry

November 21st, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^

Nebraska was in the game with OSU until pretty late in the fourth quarter, missing a second field goal instead of going for it on fourth & 3.   They did get a few holding calls against OSU  which was stunning, though officials missed a late & obvious pi call on OSU. 

That said, Stroud is playing his best football of the year now, as is OSU offense.  Michigan will need to get to him and win the turnover battle to have the best shot at prevailing.

Joined: 10/05/2014

MGoPoints: 40991

Chaz_Smash

November 21st, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^

At the time, felt like OSU was fortunate to win the Nebraska game. I remember one possession where Martinez missed a wide-open receiver on what would have been a 1st-and-goal inside 5yl, then missed the field goal.

I agree Michigan will need to score points. Somehow make Stroud uncomfortable, win the turnovers, TDs instead of FGs and maybe there's a chance

Joined: 01/08/2011

MGoPoints: 1973

Casanova

November 21st, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^

I hope you are right but we consistently play the “this team kept it close so Michigan  should be able to do same” game for years. It doesn’t work. 

Observe the flip side:  

Michigan lost to MSU, and OSU nuked them from orbit. 

Does that mean we are going to get blasted on Saturday?
 

no it doesn’t because the transitive property doesn’t work in sports

Joined: 09/23/2014

MGoPoints: 2836

NeverPunt

November 21st, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^

Wasn’t looking for transitive properties or anything of the sort. I watched OSU burn MSU to the ground and thought, welp we ate screwed. 

but perspective is helpful and looking back at a couple of games where they didn’t go all Death Star at least can be illustrative of how one team might slow down another. 
 

it may be utterly useless, you are correct. There wasn’t anything truly revelatory here, but our defense also isn’t the worst passing defense in the B10 like Sparty. We are similar to both PSU and Nebraska in defensive FEI and there has to be at least some comparison there.

we will absolutely get their best shot and it will be a better performance than they usually deliver, but if somehow some way we don’t get annihilated, i wouldn’t be surprised if it was because our game looks more like the results of Oregon or PSU.

Joined: 03/26/2019

MGoPoints: 41222

Midukman

November 21st, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^

In typical OSU fashion, they’re playing their best football before the game. Their line is very good and gave CJ a ton of time the last few weeks. Even without the time, he’s still quick to get rid of the ball. Hopefully a couple of early blitzes and or Ojabo and Hutch whacking him hard as he unloads the ball, nothing dirty, just hitting him hard may be enough to rattle him. He hasn’t been hit that much this year but when he has he’s made bad errant throws. I look for Day to try and man ball us and think they may have success until we adjust and then they try and air raid us. McDonald’s earning his pay this week for sure and I’m glad I’m not him. We’re essentially trying to slow down an offense with several first round picks…not gonna be easy. 

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