SIAP Really good film analysis of JJ by Kurt Benkert
This is a really great breakdown of JJ's play vs. Alabama and how it translates to the NFL. A lot better than the analysis from Devin Gardner IMO, but that's neither her nor there. Benkert breaks down the technique that the NFL is looking for on each throw and analyzes the reads in a really accessible way. He thinks JJ has the potential to be really good, likes his skill set and make up, just needs more throwing reps.
Any QB's fit in the NFL is almost random. Who's his coach? Coaches (plural)? How stable is his instruction year to year? Who's he throwing to? What kind of O line is he behind? What support does he get from the RBs (running, blocking, catching)? Is the D bad forcing them to be playing catchup all game?
If the Bears had drafted Pat Mahomes, rest assured he is not in GOAT status. (As a lifeline Bears fan, I can testify to that.) Brock Purdy on the Panthers would be crap.
Best of luck to JJ to land somewhere that can maximize his opportunity and not ruin him for just being there.
Benkert basically says the same thing. Says QB development in the NFL can be a crap shoot and thinks that if JJ gets eased in so that he can get some of the development reps he didn't get at Michigan he can be really good.
For some QBs it matters were you go for others not so much. The Texans job looked awful last year yet Carolina who traded up was suppose to be a much better team. Stroud obviously is a much better QB than Young at least as far as what's required in the NFL when you less time to do everything.
Excellent QB play will make everything else appear much better. Now the Texans look like they have pieces but going into last year it wasn't viewed that way. I obviously don't care for Stroud but I do appreciate that his deep ball accuracy has allowed Nico to explode into a top 10 rec.
I personally hate Minnesota but they have everything which is why I'm hoping JJ ends up there or Atl but not NY or NE.
Steve Young could hardly win a game in Tampa Bay and became a Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QB in San Francisco.
I really don’t want JJ in the NFC North because I want to root for him.
Yeah, I feel like the Seahawks would be the perfect fit for him (and me), but I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to be a Viking.
As a Vikes fan, I hope this travels directly from your authoritarian fingertips to Draft Jeebus' ears.
Stroud was used to being on a bad team.
ZING
Maybe JJ can land with the Raiders and put the brakes on the Mahomes GOAT talk. How great would it be to see him facing JH and Chargers twice a year, too!
Maybe we just hope he lands in Detroit to learn behind Goff for another year, or two? How fun would that be?
March 10th, 2024 at 12:54 AM ^
As much as I love JJ, this would be a fireable offense for Brad Holmes. They’ve got a window right now and so many needs on defense that they have to go CB or DL in the 1st round over a developmental QB.
Lifelong Bears fan #2 here. Can confirm all of the above
I just hope wherever he gets drafted, it’s with a team that can ease him in. Don’t force him to be “the man” from day one. Let him hold a clipboard for a year or two and learn the ropes, or if he does start from Day 1, I hope it’s on a team that at least has some weapons to surround him with an at least a decent to good OL.
I just worry about a team like the Giants or the Bears drafting him, forcing him to start from day 1 on a team that would give him next to no support, devoid of any weapons, and his career is over before it really even starts.
I know I am in the minority on this, but I think JJ could start pretty much anywhere next year and be atleast serviceable as he develops. I agree either NY team would be an up hill battle for him, but it would be for any QB.
March 10th, 2024 at 12:57 AM ^
I think there’s some maize and blue blinders on. He definitely struggled to read zone defenses during his time here and Kurt in this video even finds man defenses against which JJ doesn’t read fast enough or hesitates with the ball or has issues with technique (I think because we won the natty and went undefeated we forget about some of his throws he airmailed or threw behind receivers during the dogfight stretches of the OSU, Bama, and Washington games to wide open receivers that you just can’t miss in the NFL). He would be best served by sitting for at least a year or two behind a veteran QB
To be fair to DG, I'm confident he could do such an analysis. He just really isn't asked to do that on the Michigan Insider stuff because they're trying to educate fans, not deeply analyze NFL potential in schemes and decision-making.
I would have to agree, and my wife gave him her highest compliment as the least annoying color commentator on TV, narrowly edging out Joel Klatt before a wide chasm to #3.
Watching this video, Bama was getting way more pressure, and usually with 4, than I appreciated during the game.
The OL was hanging on by their fingernails in the pass game for most of the day. Never really lost it tho!
JJ has it all the physical, mental and leadership qualities you’d want and is still really young.
The one piece that is most difficult to project from college to pros, for all QB’s, is processing time.
Can the QB read the complex NFL defenses quickly enough to go through progressions and make the right read? This is often something that is only revealed when the QB is put in the line of fire.
UMs defense is probably the closest, particularly in the back 7, in CFB, to running an NFL type system, and we saw what it did to Penix on his first try going against it. Almost all rookie QBs have struggled with this historically. What Stroud did this year was actually remarkable, tbf.
One of the good things about this video is that he chose the Alabama game. He said a lot of what JJ saw in this game was a good simulation of stuff he will face in the NFL.
I get a chuckle out of the “needs more reps” analysis. He was a starter for essentially two full seasons. He played OSU twice, PSU twice and started three CFP games. He wouldn’t be a better QB this fall if he threw the ball a million times against Big 12 defenses or if he played in a system where he threw ten more dump offs or screens per game. He is as ready as any college QB, screw counting stats.
Watch the video. He points out small technique issues against certain looks that he thinks JJ will improve upon with more reps. He points out guys like Penix and Nix are more polished in some of the technical stuff because of how many reps they’ve had. It’s not a knock on JJ, just an observation about some things that need to cleaned up which will be taken care of with more reps.
I think the big thing is that the quick game is something that requires a ton of reps to get right. And Michigan generally uses those reps in the run game in practice and games. For JJ specifically that's an (correctable) issue at the NFL level, but this is something Michigan observers like SpaceCoyote have noted.
How many years have those guys had as starters? That's the difference, IMO, not the number of throws in games.
JJ probably throws it as much in practice as Bo Nix, and they probably see plenty different situations, variations of coverage, etc.
If Michigan was throwing 5-10 more attempts per game, how many more throws does it add up to over the course of the season, and how significant is that number of in game throws relative to an entire season of practice? I'm not seeing the logic behind that argument.
Thats a really silly thing to say.
Benkert does great stuff. I don't even play Madden, but I love watching his Madden videos because he explains real football/quarterback play very well. He does a great job explaining coverages and how to attack them.
This is in my opinion the one thing he does really well. That’s a niche that helps good at.
His broader NFL stuff is really rough.
I think JJ McCarthy is a very good football quarterback player.
Good for JJ, but Benkert… ugh. He’s just in over his head and has been multiple times he’s been put in his place by more knowledgeable people. Not saying that’s the case here, just very low down on my list of people I put much faith in.