Should the Lions draft Tua?
So, I guess this is a thing now:
So, the idea is draft Tua, sit him for a year (when he might be recovering from injury anyway), and then... profit?
Here are four QB stat lines for you:
QB A: 341-516 66% 4110 yards 31 TDs 5 INTs 8.0 y/a 257 y/g
QB B: 353-569 62% 4002 yards 26 TDs 4 INTs 7.0 y/a 250 y/g
QB C: 383-580 66% 5097 yards 50 TDs 12 INTs 8.8 y/a 319 y/g
QB D: 374-582 64% 4998 yards 38 TDs 10 INTs 8.6 y/a 312 y/g
A is Russell Wilson this year. B is Aaron Rodgers this year. C is Patrick Mahomes last year in his MVP season.
D is the statline you get if you project Matthew Stafford's 2019 over 16 games.
The first three QBs are the elite of the elite in the NFL right now. Stafford is 9 months older than Russell Wilson and 5 years younger than Aaron Rodgers. He has two years left on his rather large contract, but if he performs at a level near what he performed this year* he'll be earning all of that money easily.
I guess the case in favor would be this: If Tua is a future elite QB, you lock him up, play out Stafford's contract, and then you get nearly the same QB production but with a rookie cap hit, allowing the Lions to use more money to build a better team around him.
But Stafford isn't that old. He could easily have 5 years left at this level. No QB is a completely sure thing out of the draft; while I like Tua and think he'll be good, Stafford has actually proven himself at this level.
Meanwhile, the Lions defense is a disaster that is in desperate need of quality bodies. Chase Young might not be available, but Derrick Brown is. There are great DBs available, quality players that can be had if the Lions trade down. The #3 pick is a terrific asset; this talk is of using it to draft a guy who, even if he turns out to be a good pick, has a pretty good chance of being no better than the guy they already have. Is that worth the effort?
*I didn't like how the Lions finished the year any more than you did, and the defense--supposedly Matt Patricia's specialty--was a disaster. But the offense under Stafford was terrific, and I'm really optimistic about the talent it has going forward.
January 7th, 2020 at 9:51 PM ^
Draft tua.
start Blough/Driskel for another year while tua gets healed and learns.
get another top 5 draft pick.
fire quintricia
.... profit??
January 7th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
Giving up on Blough already?! Ugh!
January 7th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
Absolutely they should.
January 7th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
No. I think the lions are too deep into the Patricia system to start over. I really question Tua’s long term health as well.
I think they have to ride it out with Stafford and draft to win now. Then if that fails, start a rebuild and draft a qb at the end of the rebuild so he’s not getting killed in the process.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:00 PM ^
Patricia/Quinn should not draft Tua b/c they have to win next year or lose their jobs. The Lions franchise could consider it, but injury history is a concern.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
I was thinking this as well, but then I thought what if Stafford's back injury is worse than we thought. Not even Belichick can win now if you don't have a QB.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:06 AM ^
If Stafford’s back injury is worse than we currently believe, the Lions will have plenty of chances to draft QBs top 3 in the near future, let alone one that perhaps has the biggest medical red flags in 20 years.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Brady went down in the first quarter of game 1 in 2008 and the Pats won 11 games with Matt Cassel. Belichick can just... win.
January 8th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
They dont have to win next year. Sheila will release a statement saying 6 wins is signs of progress and that keeping them together is best for the organization (not paying a buyout).
January 8th, 2020 at 2:26 AM ^
Patricia has a system?
January 8th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Sure single high, robber coverage with a 3 man push. Very hard to learn so probably another year or two of allowing 500 yards a game. But when they get it, well it will be like that last Superbowl team he coached...oh wait he gave up 500 yards then too.
Just have to coach it better I guess
January 7th, 2020 at 9:58 PM ^
The reality is if they draft him, he will be a bust. If they don’t, he’s a hall of famer by year 3.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:56 PM ^
Whether or not he would personally would be a bust remains to be seen. What is unquestionable is that the Lions would remain a bust regardless.
January 8th, 2020 at 6:48 AM ^
You forgot the 3rd likely scenario is where is has a great statistical career, lie-downs never win a playoff game and he quits the game at his peak!
January 7th, 2020 at 9:59 PM ^
No way - trade that away for known healthy building blocks.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
I'd be a fan of trading the pick to a team in desperate need of a QB, and picking up extra picks. The Lions need talent in both quality and volume, and are actually pretty good at the QB position, as long as Stafford stays healthy. Trade down, grab an edge rusher and a DB early, and shore up O-line and D-line depth. The RB and WR positions are actually okay. Build from the two lines out (the team's biggest weaknesses since forever).
January 7th, 2020 at 10:17 PM ^
The best thing that could happen for the Lions would be for Tua's heath prognosis to be excellent. That makes their pick a lot more valuable. It's not worth that much when a half dozen players are kicked around as possible picks at #3.
Fortunately for the Lions, teams use a formula to value picks when trading up or down. Even they shouldn't get fleeced if they go for extra picks. All bets are off if they want players instead of picks.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:31 PM ^
Agreed. A healthy Tua could fetch at least a pair of first rounders, probably more.
But some team is going to be enamored with Justin Hebert even (maybe especially?) if Tua's bill of health isn't clean. Remember the haul that San Francisco got just for moving down one spot when Chicago picked Trubisky? With the big dropoff in QB talent after the big 3 (Burrow, Tua, Hebert), someone is gonna overpay.
Bob Quinn's job is going to hinge on a) the pick (if the Lions keep it)/return on the pick if traded, b) who the Lions take with the extra picks.
January 8th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Definitely all this Tua hype, combined with a clean bill of health would set the Lions up to trade this pick for some good picks. If Stafford's back is bad, maybe we pick Tua, but if Stafford is good to go, he is a keeper for at least another 5 years, barring no major injuries. We trade down, get some solid draft choices, get some free agents, and the Lions could have a great season next year.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:02 PM ^
The Lions should fold as a team because they have sucked for 60 years no matter who they draft.
January 8th, 2020 at 9:47 AM ^
If they would merge with Cleveland and move to Toledo, we might have a competitive team: The Toledo Brown Lions.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
Uhhhh... I don’t personally know the right answer to this, but history tells us that whatever the Lions do will be proven to have been the wrong thing to do. If you think Michigan BPONE is bad, Lions BPONE is terminal.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:09 PM ^
I can't argue with this.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:51 PM ^
Sorry, but I already voted for "Man Getting Hit In Groin By Football."
January 7th, 2020 at 11:05 PM ^
Boo-urns. Boo-urns!!
January 8th, 2020 at 7:45 AM ^
I knew this would happen, I put you on the committee and you voted for the dumbest movie....
January 8th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^
“If you think Michigan BPONE is bad, Lions BPONE is terminal. “
Perhaps the truest statement ever on MGB
January 7th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
This draft is too deep. Trade the pick to someone who needs a QB, build a defense.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
Stay the course with Stafford. Not sold on Tua being on the same level.
Use the pick on defense, definately looking at trading down and leverage other teams coveting Tua.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:10 PM ^
It is not often that you have a generational-type QB sitting in your lap.
People honestly forget how flipping good this dude was before this injury. He's healthy. Stafford's probably got 2-3 good years left in him.
Do what the Chiefs did. Let Tua learn behind Stafford, and give him the reigns when Staff's gone.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:19 PM ^
This is the only correct answer. People who think Stafford has a lot of years left are nuts, back issues dont just go away.
Plus the Quinn used injuries as an excuse for the bad year, so if that's true then the pick shouldn't be needed to win now.
Get Tua, stash him, if the lions win next year then great you have a nice young QB waiting in the wings. If they suck again, torch it all and start over with a cheap young QB.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:20 PM ^
Why just 2 or 3? Aaron Rodgers is 36. Peyton Manning won MVP at 37. Drew Brees has spent his years after age 35 completing almost 75% of his passes; this year was his fourth season running over 70%. Tom Brady has been in the NFL since the Clinton administration, and he just won a Super Bowl (and an MVP the year before!).
Stafford is 32. Quarterbacks don't necessarily age the way they used to. Five or more years of prime production is not at all unthinkable.
EDIT: The response above me brings up back issues. There are different kinds; this is vertebral, I believe, which may act differently.
But it's true that back issues can be a problem. Peyton Manning had them before he won an MVP and a Super Bowl, for example. Mario Lemieux had long-standing back problems; he had surgery in 1990, for example. Even retired... and then played 5 more years, retiring for good in 2006.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
He has been here 11 years. He has played the majority of every season. At this point, his body is going to start to wear out. He doesn't have the luxury of being behind the lines that Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have. Those guys are extra durable because they aren't playing in the absolute shit storm that the Lions are.
Not only that, if the Lions have a couple more seasons of complete shit, I would not be surprised if he moves on.
You gotta start thinking about the next guy. He's right here, available to take.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:32 PM ^
Remember when Drew Brees was injured and the Chargers traded him for a 2nd rd pick and took Rivers? Rivers has been solid but they coulda had Brees AND say Sean Taylor, or traded down, etc.
Joey Harrington and Matt Leinhart were flipping good too. Tua is an outstanding QB but Alabama and their NFL talent at every position makes any QB look better than they are.
Stafford + #3 pick or trade down >>>>> Tua.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:12 PM ^
Absolutely not. If Tua is healthy, the Lions should trade the pick for more picks or other assets. Someone, maybe Miami or the Chargers, will want him. This draft is Chase Young and everyone else. If the Lions can’t get Young, they should trade down because there is tremendous depth in this draft. If they trade with Miami or the Chargers they still get Okudah or Brown, which is who they probably want at 3 anyway.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:39 PM ^
Well, I doubt the Lions draft Young with the second pick, considering they have the third pick.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:16 PM ^
He's badly injured so ABSOLUTELY!!!
January 7th, 2020 at 10:16 PM ^
What does it matter? Whoever the Lions draft will underachieve or bust, and whoever they pass on will be a perennial All Pro.
Such is life.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:22 PM ^
I've answered this a million times.
NO!
What they should do is tell the whole fucking world they're going to draft him. Drive up the price and trade the pick to Miami for their #5 where the Lions take Okudah.
You trade down just those two spots and you can pick up a 2nd AND 4th or 5th rounder.
This should be easy.
The question for the Lions should be where do we focus in the 2nd round or do we want to trade back up into the bottom of the 1st round?
January 7th, 2020 at 10:31 PM ^
The Dolphins may even give up 2 of their 3 first round picks for #3. They'd for sure at least give #5 and a later round pick. I'd take that over Tua any day. He may be fantastic but his style seems more collegiate and his injury issue is a big question. He was phenomenal at times though - very accurate and great awareness. He also had superior talent everywhere. Most importantly, his receivers were beyond ridiculous.
January 8th, 2020 at 7:52 AM ^
I said a 1 (#5), 2 and a 4.
The trade value chart puts the Lions #2 pick at 2200 points.
The Dolphins #5 pick is 1700 points.
Miami's 2nd round, pick #39 is worth 510. Toss in a 5th rounder (and a 3 or 4 in 2021) for good measure and because Detroit did an excellent job of driving up the price (which they won't). They should have EVERY mock thinking they're taking Tua.
Miami also has another pick in round 2, #56 worth 340 points. If the Lions took that they would need to get Miami's 3rd round #70 for 240 + Miami's 5th rounder (and a 4th in 2021) to match scenario #1.
Just do you value the extra pick or the higher 2nd rounder that if packaged with the current 2nd rounder could get you back into the mid/late 1st round (let's assume pick #17).
At that point, I think you play it by ear and wait to see what can't miss prospect that was supposed to go top 5 falls to you. Hell, it could be Tua if the Dolphins like another QB.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:12 AM ^
Lastly...for the record. I could justify Tua at 17, but if I'm the Lions, I'm not trading up. They're not one player away.
I get a shit ton if picks and draft the same position twice if I have to...
If I have picks 5 (1), 35 (2), 39 (2), 67 (3), 99 (4), 131 (5), 144 (5), 155 (6), and 162 (6)
I'm going something like...
CB, OL, OLB, S, WR, LB, DT, CB/NB, Offensive ATH*
*(get the fastest player on the board, a Greg Ward type...maybe that QB from Navy if he tests well? Speed RB, Slot, Jet Sweep/Arc, KR, PR, a specialty guy that is going to give you starter's impact)
Find a backup QB in FA for a year, don't waste a mid round pick on a Will Grier type. Get someone proven for just a year or two.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:24 PM ^
Stafford is only 31 so he has another 10 years in him.
And if Tua is that good they should be able to get a haul for #3.
So there is no logical scenario where they should take Tua.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:27 PM ^
Another TEN years? Come on dude. I said 2-3 above. I'd be surprised if he made it 4 more years with this garbage team.
There's no logical scenario that they should draft a TE, but they did. This organization sucks balls; you may as well let them draft the QB of the future now that he's available.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:56 PM ^
Except he had the 2nd longest Iron man streak in the NFL coming into this season. Why should anyone believe he's only got 2-3 years left when he was the healthiest qb in the NFL the past 8 years coming into this one.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:16 AM ^
Stafford has been playing with a broken back for parts of two seasons. In what world is that a favorable scenario? Let's not pretend that most fans wanted to keep a healthy Stafford here regardless. Most were pointing to this season as the year they could finally get rid of him because of the cap hit being favorable. If I made the money he made and I have little kids at home, I would be going the Andrew Luck as soon as possible if I had vertebrae injuries in consecutive seasons. Stafford wants to play because the Lions hand him $100M contracts like candy. That doesn't even include the F150 and Blue Cross endorsements.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:01 AM ^
I totally get the logic, Stafford 3 broken bones = doomed, Tua hip dislocation = lol np.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:25 PM ^
No. If Stafford's back gives out again next year, you ride Blough straight to Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He'll be a much better pro than Tua.
NEVER draft a left-handed quarterback. It wrecks your entire offense!
January 7th, 2020 at 11:33 PM ^
montana transitioned to steve young w/o an issue.