Should the Lions draft Tua?
So, I guess this is a thing now:
So, the idea is draft Tua, sit him for a year (when he might be recovering from injury anyway), and then... profit?
Here are four QB stat lines for you:
QB A: 341-516 66% 4110 yards 31 TDs 5 INTs 8.0 y/a 257 y/g
QB B: 353-569 62% 4002 yards 26 TDs 4 INTs 7.0 y/a 250 y/g
QB C: 383-580 66% 5097 yards 50 TDs 12 INTs 8.8 y/a 319 y/g
QB D: 374-582 64% 4998 yards 38 TDs 10 INTs 8.6 y/a 312 y/g
A is Russell Wilson this year. B is Aaron Rodgers this year. C is Patrick Mahomes last year in his MVP season.
D is the statline you get if you project Matthew Stafford's 2019 over 16 games.
The first three QBs are the elite of the elite in the NFL right now. Stafford is 9 months older than Russell Wilson and 5 years younger than Aaron Rodgers. He has two years left on his rather large contract, but if he performs at a level near what he performed this year* he'll be earning all of that money easily.
I guess the case in favor would be this: If Tua is a future elite QB, you lock him up, play out Stafford's contract, and then you get nearly the same QB production but with a rookie cap hit, allowing the Lions to use more money to build a better team around him.
But Stafford isn't that old. He could easily have 5 years left at this level. No QB is a completely sure thing out of the draft; while I like Tua and think he'll be good, Stafford has actually proven himself at this level.
Meanwhile, the Lions defense is a disaster that is in desperate need of quality bodies. Chase Young might not be available, but Derrick Brown is. There are great DBs available, quality players that can be had if the Lions trade down. The #3 pick is a terrific asset; this talk is of using it to draft a guy who, even if he turns out to be a good pick, has a pretty good chance of being no better than the guy they already have. Is that worth the effort?
*I didn't like how the Lions finished the year any more than you did, and the defense--supposedly Matt Patricia's specialty--was a disaster. But the offense under Stafford was terrific, and I'm really optimistic about the talent it has going forward.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
I think Tua will be pretty good in the league, but he's going to need an offense developed around his talents - like the Ravens did this year with Jackson. I don't see the Lions doing that - especially with Quintricia's vanilla NFL offense.
They'd be better off collecting as many high end draft picks as they can get this year, and grab a good QB project later - if they feel they really need one. They're not going to realistically compete next year, so they have time to continue building without stashing a possible walking injury as the 3rd overall pick. Add talent his year by trading that pick.
Besides, that's the Patriots way, right?
January 8th, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
Love to see Lions get Dobbins in the second round. I think it'd be an amazing steel d if he falls to second round to them. Or even trade up to a second pick in the first round if possible. I really think he is special. Even though they may not need him and running backs are way less important than they used to be, I think he could really make the offense special. I'd really like to be able to root for him, cause he is a crazy good player.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
Nah. Trade Stafford, start Blough, tank for Trevor Lawerence in 2021. Lions could even move back in the first round and get more picks for 2020 or 2021.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
Hell no on Tua. QBs like him get lifted by the insane talent around him. Check how no name 4 start blew us up in the Citrus with weapons like Jeudy to throw to and a line that kept him clean. Give me a guy like Stafford that can put up stats with garbage talent around him over Bama prima donnas any day.
January 8th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^
Galloway and Marvin Jones Jr. are garbage? Huh?
January 8th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
It doesn't really matter what the Lions do. Until they get new ownership, I don't see how they ever get over the losing culture that has lead to 62 seasons without a championship and even only 1 playoff win in all that time.
I would prefer the Ford's either sell the team or move it to another city. I would rather take my chances with an expansion team down the road.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
If I'm Bob Quinn, I will spend the next few months before the draft sending off the strongest Tua crush vibes as possible. Make everyone believe he's a viable draft option. If you decide to draft him, fine. If not, make another GM pucker and fleece them for as many picks as you can#.
#I know...easier said than done.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
The Lions need to draft new owners