Should the Lions draft Tua?
So, I guess this is a thing now:
So, the idea is draft Tua, sit him for a year (when he might be recovering from injury anyway), and then... profit?
Here are four QB stat lines for you:
QB A: 341-516 66% 4110 yards 31 TDs 5 INTs 8.0 y/a 257 y/g
QB B: 353-569 62% 4002 yards 26 TDs 4 INTs 7.0 y/a 250 y/g
QB C: 383-580 66% 5097 yards 50 TDs 12 INTs 8.8 y/a 319 y/g
QB D: 374-582 64% 4998 yards 38 TDs 10 INTs 8.6 y/a 312 y/g
A is Russell Wilson this year. B is Aaron Rodgers this year. C is Patrick Mahomes last year in his MVP season.
D is the statline you get if you project Matthew Stafford's 2019 over 16 games.
The first three QBs are the elite of the elite in the NFL right now. Stafford is 9 months older than Russell Wilson and 5 years younger than Aaron Rodgers. He has two years left on his rather large contract, but if he performs at a level near what he performed this year* he'll be earning all of that money easily.
I guess the case in favor would be this: If Tua is a future elite QB, you lock him up, play out Stafford's contract, and then you get nearly the same QB production but with a rookie cap hit, allowing the Lions to use more money to build a better team around him.
But Stafford isn't that old. He could easily have 5 years left at this level. No QB is a completely sure thing out of the draft; while I like Tua and think he'll be good, Stafford has actually proven himself at this level.
Meanwhile, the Lions defense is a disaster that is in desperate need of quality bodies. Chase Young might not be available, but Derrick Brown is. There are great DBs available, quality players that can be had if the Lions trade down. The #3 pick is a terrific asset; this talk is of using it to draft a guy who, even if he turns out to be a good pick, has a pretty good chance of being no better than the guy they already have. Is that worth the effort?
*I didn't like how the Lions finished the year any more than you did, and the defense--supposedly Matt Patricia's specialty--was a disaster. But the offense under Stafford was terrific, and I'm really optimistic about the talent it has going forward.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
For every Steve Young, there's 10 Scott Mitchells
January 8th, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
Scott Mitchell was the laziest, fattest (for his position) pro athlete I've ever seen.
I remember seeing him at Carl's Golfland randomly one off season when he was the Lions' starter. I could not believe how much of a slob the guy was physically. Just a tall, sloppy-fat dude. It was pathetic.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
This is what I've been thinking. Just feels like Lawrence is gonna be the better pro.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
Fuck no. His injury may be something he does not overcome.
Plus we need a TE
January 7th, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
They'll draft him, then he'll medically retire after signing the contract.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:32 PM ^
The Lions are gonna take Brian Lewerke at #3.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:36 PM ^
Risky at best. Hip injuries are serious. Hope he does well. But getting hit by NFL linebackers every weekend makes it seem like reinjury is inevitable. He will never be the same athlete.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:36 PM ^
Best case scenario would be Tua getting a full bill of health. The Lions should ask for 2 first rounders with one of those picks being higher than 10-15. A team that needs a franchise QB would trade for the 3 if Tua is healthy. Draft defensively and try to grab a backup like say Josh Rosen or Case Keenum. Never know if Stafford will be healthy all season.
That being said they will probably reach and draft another TE or a FB. SOL!
January 7th, 2020 at 10:42 PM ^
It wouldn't be the worst idea, considering Stafford is older and now injury prone. I also think Tua is pretty damn good.
But the Lions should absolutely pass on Tua for the sole reason that our OLine is going to get that kid killed.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
Tua already missed more games than Stafford shieeett yet you wanna call out Staffords injuries? Shieet
January 7th, 2020 at 10:43 PM ^
I agree with your take. It would be silly to draft a quarterback in the top-ten with Stafford around.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:43 PM ^
Isn't Stafford only 31?
Maybe Detroit should work on fixing the rest of the team instead of drafting to try to replace their only serviceable position.
Wait this is Detroit the same team that wastes multiple top 10 picks on positions with depth.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
Considering Stafford isn't the problem, no.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
"if his medical checks out"
Tua has had quite a few injuries and its not like he even was hit much or had to deal with a bad offensive line. His "medical" is irrelevant. His injury history suggests he is very injury prone. In the NFC North he would get murdered
For once......FOR ONCE....the Lions just need to take the safe pick and draft the defensive player they need
January 8th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
Tua subbed in (in spectacular fashion) for Hurts in CFB Championship Game, then played half a season before getting injured. Hasn't even played a complete season in his college football career.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
Some scenarios that could happen if the Lions did take Tua:
- Stafford gets hurt again next year, Tua comes in, Lions see what they have.
- Stafford stays healthy and plays well next year.
- If they think Tua is the real deal and would immediately perform better than Stafford, they could trade Stafford after the year a la what the Chiefs did with Smith/Mahomes.
- If they think Tua is the real deal, but still think Stafford is going to perform better over the next few years, they could do what the Packers did with Favre/Rodgers, who was the back-up for his first 3 years in the league until Favre retired (the first time), and wait to get rid of Stafford until his skills/health diminish to the point that Tua is better. IIRC, Stafford has 3 more years on his current contract.
- Stafford struggles next year, Tua comes in, Lions see what they have.
The good thing is that with Stafford, Tua wouldn't have to overwork himself getting healthy in order to be ready for the beginning of the season; he would have time to heal and get better. Plus, if he is the real deal, the Lions would have their franchise quarterback when the Stafford era ends (whether that's next year or a few years from now). And if that end is sooner than later, as OP points out, they could use the money they save from going from Stafford's contract to Tua's rookie deal to add weapons on both sides of the ball.
I guess the question is: Are the Lions one offseason away from contending? If so, you need the talent on defense more than you need the successor to Stafford. And since Quinn & Patricia need to contend next year to stick around, I doubt they would base their #3 pick on the long-term. But since I don't think the Lions will be contenders next year, no matter what they do this offseason, I hope they do take Tua.
Edit: I also like what Qmatic said a couple comments below. #TankForTrevor
January 7th, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
Hip injury has way too many variables. Would stay far away from an injury so serious that it shut the kid down for the season.
and I'd go find jake ruddock and bring him back.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
*rudddock
January 7th, 2020 at 10:51 PM ^
YES!!! Medical reports check out hard to argue with 87 TD’s passing with 11 INT’s
January 7th, 2020 at 10:51 PM ^
What they really should do is trade #3 to a team for their first this year, next year, and a 3rd this year. From there they trade Stafford to New England or New Orleans if Brady/Brees leaves for a big haul. Couple young mid round players and at least 2 first rounders. Tank in 2020.
You then enter the 2021 year drafting Lawrence and have a bevy of high picks and cap space.
January 7th, 2020 at 10:52 PM ^
Also you have to take Tuas stats with a grain of salt because he has had the pleasure of throwing to literally the best WR group in CFB history. Any QB that can throw a deep route wouldve looked amazing throwing to those guys. Toss it to Ruggs or Waddle and those guys blaze. Jeudy and Smith have amazing hands. Najee Harris is such a good pass catching RB he would be a #1 WR on many P5 teams
Tua is good but not as great as his stats lead you to believe. Trevor Lawrence and Burrow are better
January 7th, 2020 at 11:08 PM ^
No one has mentioned that Stafford's wife is still recovering from major brain surgery and they have a few young kids. Even IF he recovers from his back injury, and IF he's medically cleared to play football again, THEN he would have to make the decision if he's going to risk his family's future on playing again. Matt might totally decide that he has enough money and never play again much like Andrew Luck.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:19 PM ^
Exactly
January 7th, 2020 at 11:38 PM ^
There’s been no evidence that what you’re suggesting is on his mind, but I’ll be damned if I wouldn’t be thinking exactly this if I were him. Life is short, and he’s rich enough.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:25 PM ^
i say no. too much money tied to QB. imo, there are guys like tua that come out every year. no need to do it now. may as well wait a year.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:32 AM ^
"Guys like tua come out every year" .... WHAT?!
January 7th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
If his medicals are good then yes, draft him. Unfortunately for him, this likely dooms his career.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^
No. No. No. No.
If the Lions draft Tua he will join Jahvid Best, Ryan Broyles, and Kerryon Johnson who were brittle in college and were brittle in the NFL.
January 8th, 2020 at 12:04 AM ^
Try again with Kerryon......Johnson missed just 2 cfb games in his entire career due to injury and was a workhorse in college his last season.
No idea why people say this.
January 8th, 2020 at 2:10 AM ^
Injury potential was always a risk with drafting Kerryon and CLEARLY they were right. In college he had shoulder surgery in 2016. Also reaggravated it in 2017
Sprained knee in 2018. Missed 6 games
Knee injury in 2019. Missed 8 1/2 games
He will injure himself again next season. Lost cause. Another bad pick by Quinn. Wasn't even good this year when he played 3YPC are bum numbers
January 8th, 2020 at 7:50 AM ^
Another classic let's make up things to make Lions and Quinn sound incompetent at everything.
He missed 2 games in 3 years in cfb. Good luck finding a rb drafted after 3 years of cfb who missed less. Bet it's less than 10 pct. So 90 pct are injury risks then I suppose? Oh because he had couple shoulder surgeries? Well those shoulders have had NO effect on him in NFL so that particular injury concern hasn't even been an issue.
The dude has one of the highest yards-per-carry of anybody drafted the past two years with over 200 carries. 3 ypc? Haha Okay try 3.6 which according to you I guess would be 4 actually since it's closer to 4 than 3 and you obviously like to round it up/down.
Guy looked like he was lacking the same burst early on this season but after first 3 games he averaged 4.2 rest of way and was at 5.4 last year which is excellent in NFL.
The fact that he came back during this season shows the guy is fast healer and competitive guy. Bottom line is he's extremely talented too as his on field production has been solid so far in nfl. The kicker is he's just 22 years old and not turning 23 until next summer which puts him in same age as this years upcoming rookie class.
Getting sad how some in the anti Quinn crowd can't even have a normal discussion about the Lions without trying to be way over the top to makes him look completely incompetent. Sure there been some struggles but this awful drafting is just made up excuses by those to lazy to do the actual work.
Another bad pick? if you look at first 3 drafts only ande not last one at its way too early Quinn has actually hit on a higher percentage than most considering just 30 pct of 3rd rounders start in nfl and usually less than 20 pct 4th rounders. Glasgow a 3rd round pick was best guard in nfc this year at pro football focus grades for all any guard drafted in any round the last 4 years, ragnow a 1st rounder was best graded center in entire nfl since he came into league 2 years, Decker 1st rounder was 4th best tackle this year of all tackles taken since he came into league, Tracy Walker a 4th rounder was 3rd best safety NFL of all safeties that's been drafted in nfl since year he came into league, Kenny golloday 3rd round pick been superstar with most tds and over 1,000 yard season,this year, deshawn hand 3rd rounder was pff defensive top rookie in nfl last season and his numbers last year was the single best grade of any interior defensive lineman either of last 2 seasons in nfl but hurt this season. Kerryon Johnson 2nd rounder averaging one of the best ypc of any rb taken last 2 years, A'shawn Robinson 2nd rounder did have blah season but far from a bust and is legit nfl lineman who'll get signed by someone for decent amount,even Joe Dahl 5th rounder is now full time starter and for 5th round pick that's great considering he was around league average this year..... this is part where you say but tabor sucks and so does Davis. Okay he missed on couple but what GM doesn't but look how many have hit compared to league norm. You'd be crazy to say that looking at his success and hit rates in NFL
if hand, golloday, Walker, Glasgow, ragnow were in this upcoming draft all would go 1st round or mid 2nd round. Sad how people can't even look at some parts of the Lions objectively. Not saying Quinn is bill Walsh but the whole he's been bad at drafting is totally wrong when you compare his drafting to most.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
You haven’t been paying attention.
Quinn isn’t even offering Glasgow a contract.
January 8th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Scarborough is more of a beast!
January 7th, 2020 at 11:38 PM ^
LOL. Yes, by all means, a team that is woefully deficient on defense should draft a QB who's just missed out on most of a season because of an extremely serious hip injury. It's not like opposing defensive players will ever try to hit Tua on the hip or anything. What's to worry about?
I stopped rooting for the Lions over 30 years ago, so I think it'd be hilarious.
January 7th, 2020 at 11:44 PM ^
The next Andre Ware
January 7th, 2020 at 11:50 PM ^
Does it matter?
January 8th, 2020 at 12:30 AM ^
Roll the dice baby
January 8th, 2020 at 12:48 AM ^
They already have a damaged QB, it would definitely be a Lions move to draft a younger damaged QB
January 8th, 2020 at 2:23 AM ^
You cant "project" stats over the year to suite your weak argument.
Statsford is better than average, loser QB who can not inspire the rest of his team to win big games. He is average at best, now has chronic back injuries, and is on the downside of his career.
Tua is badly injured. Drafting him would be a typical Lions, Millenesque move.
Losers.
January 8th, 2020 at 3:31 AM ^
Leave it to the Lions to pick a player, who they already have in the top tier of their position, and the replacement has the Bo injury, making it a question whether they will ever play again.
It is such a dumb proposition they might actually do it.
January 8th, 2020 at 5:38 AM ^
Tua is oft- injured. His body won’t make it through a NFL season.
People are ignoring his long history of injuries. Why I don’t know.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
It pains me to agree with Salvatore, but agreed. Guy won’t last a full season.
January 8th, 2020 at 6:48 AM ^
No way the Lions take Tua at #3.
Because they clearly have their sights on Sean McKeon with that pick.
January 8th, 2020 at 7:34 AM ^
Let's start with, has Tua done anything to deserve that fate?
January 8th, 2020 at 7:48 AM ^
Isn't this speculation moot until Tua actually gets cleared to work-out at the Combine where he can be evaluated? I'm not aware of his recovery schedule, but if he's not healthy enough to go through the Combine this winter, then drafting him pretty much sight unseen is far too risky.
January 8th, 2020 at 7:53 AM ^
I'd think there is no way he'll be ready to workout in 2 months. That said someone will bite early as qb is most important position in NFL
January 8th, 2020 at 7:50 AM ^
Smart team would have him in, RAVE GLOWINGLY in every media outlet about how impressive and ahead of schedule Tua is. Then get a QB hungry team excited enough to empty the draft bank to get him and use the extra picks to fill needs.
But this is the DETROIT F-ING LIONS! They'll likely trade Stafford to NE for a conditional 4th round pick. Use the #3 on a risk who will turn out to be a total bust, go 2-14 and pick someone other than Trevor Lawrence next year.
January 8th, 2020 at 1:39 PM ^
To add to that, The Lions will be 1-14 heading into the final game of the season needing a loss to secure the #1 pick. They win the game, end up a 2-14 and move to the #3 pick.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:11 AM ^
I think it would be equal to drafting Darko if the Lions pass on Tua. He is a huge talent and would set up long term success, a concept foreign to the Lions. Stafford has a year or two at best left in his battered body. Tua could be developed and brought along slowly, Aaron Rodgers anyone??
But the Lions will probably pass and be the butt of even more jokes for passing on a keystone player for any franchise.
January 8th, 2020 at 8:45 AM ^
No. Tua will be gone at #2. Someone will trade up with Washington. Then possibly, someone trades up with us...or Chase is sitting there at 3.