Sagarin 2019 preseason ranking has UM at #3
Interesting to see UM right after Bama and Clemson. I've found that Sagarin ratings are rather reliable, but only by the end of the season when there is enough data to support the results. Preseason doesn't mean much, but higher than I would have expected.
August 19th, 2019 at 8:47 PM ^
I for one think we’re better than both the teams listed above us.
/s
August 19th, 2019 at 9:48 PM ^
We're a better college team. Those other schools pay their players so pretty sure they are professional teams.
August 19th, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
I'm excited for this season too, but anyone buying this much hype this early might be in for a big let down. Michigan either wins the B1G East and beats OSU this year, or the season is a bust.
August 19th, 2019 at 8:53 PM ^
agreed
August 19th, 2019 at 11:02 PM ^
Totally disagree.
Buy the hype. Ride the wave as far as it goes. Enjoy the thrill. Be a fan.
If you get to "there's always next year," then that's actually true--there IS always next year.
If not, then we win the whole dang thing, and you loved every minute of it.
BE A FAN!
August 20th, 2019 at 1:01 AM ^
"There's always next year" is so true in college football. Especially for Keith Jackson.
August 20th, 2019 at 1:41 AM ^
Every season I hope for the best and if we come up short then my motto is to wait until next year. Only problem with us older members, we may not have too many next years left.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
The whole NC or bust thing is sort of lame. I was a student during the last of Bo and early Mo. We had some heart breakers (Colorado, FSU and half the ND games) and to a large extent it sort of felt like the season was over when we lost. In retrospect, those were some of Michigan's best years. We owned OSU and had multiple Big Ten championships.
IMHO I think you want what Harbaugh has brought us. Very good teams capable of winning the B1G and even the NC. You make your own luck and you have to be prepared when luck happens, but you still need a little luck. I think Harbaugh has us in position.
August 20th, 2019 at 5:35 PM ^
I like how Harbaugh has transformed the team into a perennial top 20 team. I'm just happy with beating OSU half the time we play them and winning the B1G every 2 to 4 years. If we make the playoffs and some how beat Alabama and Clemson, then that is just icing on the cake. I attended Michigan in Bo's 2nd decade of coaching. The only subpar season he had while I was a student was in '84 but that was due to a lot of key injuries.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:30 PM ^
Most of the people with a measured outlook are going to be let down if they don't beat OSU. So, I would rather be happy right from the start.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:41 PM ^
There is nothing to be happy about if we lose to osu. There’s no way we get to Indy if we lose that game. Goals are right in front of us. We have to want it! 12 days!
August 19th, 2019 at 10:56 PM ^
That’s not true. Well it’s possibly not true. If the Maryland QB made the not too difficult throw on the 2 point conversion against OSU it would have happened last year.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:50 AM ^
August 20th, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
Man, I had completely forgotten about that game.
I am convinced that OSU is the luckiest team on the planet. They have had more weird things go right for them (on and off the field) than any team I can think of in the past decade.
2014 PSU game bungled by the officials which allows OSU to win in OT. This sends them to the Big Ten title, CFP and a national championship.
2016 UM game bungled by the officials which allows OSU to win in OT. This sends them to the Big Ten title and CFP.
2018 Maryland game bungled by gross incompetence of Maryland QB which allows OSU to win. This sends them to the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl.
Jesus, those f*ckers have no clue how lucky they have been.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
They've been fortunate but if you notice the absolute top talent teams seem to get "lucky". They've also all pushed for more tempo and more offensive plays per game and eschewed clock control. This is what many summarize as the "our players are better than yours so the more plays we run the more likely the scales eventually tip in our favor" strategy.
I'm not a "stars are everything" guy but there's something to be said about being able to plug in another NFL talent when someone gets hurt (Bosa/Young, Barrett/Jones) - their depth is better than just about everyone else's across the board. The OSU/Bama/Clemson "B" team if such a thing existed would probably destroy the B team of every other team in CFB. However, each team can still only put 11 guys on the field so on a game to game basis, the fact that their top 40 guys are better than our top 40 guys isn't necessarily relevant.
All this means is that you either have to thoroughly outplay them (difficult because of talent and good coaching) or have a few bounces go your way and stay ahead long enough for the clock to hit 0:00. Bad games at Iowa and Purdue are the only reason OSU hasn't been in the playoff every year, but Michigan is never going to "sneak up" on OSU and catch them on a bad day.
August 20th, 2019 at 7:25 PM ^
All three of those games were decided by someone other than OSU personnel. Two of them were by incompetent (or corrupt) officials and the other by the mind boggling incompetence of a scholarship QB for Maryland.
That is luck, pure and simple. OSU was dead in the water in those games but for outside intervention. If they had lost those games, Meyer's tenure at OSU would have looked much less impressive as I think they would have only had 1 Big Ten title and no national title and no CFP appearances.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:04 PM ^
August 20th, 2019 at 4:31 AM ^
The season won't be a bust. We have a seasoned vet qb with finally a good OL that's been holding back the Harbaugh type team. Our D is fine. The decade long shit is over, and that right soon....
August 20th, 2019 at 8:19 AM ^
Agreed, that's the reality of it. Everything before OSU is essentially pre-season this time around.
August 20th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
We wait all of spring and summer for one game? We play so few games that we need to cherish every one of them. While OSU is definitely the focus, we have two rivals (three of you include Illinois???). Let us enjoy the season. Let us hope the good guys win it all for once.
August 21st, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Doesn't mean you can't enjoy all the other games...just that this year OSU is that critical
August 20th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
I am with you there, last season made me cry.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
Me too. Losing like that bothered me to an unhealthy extent and I won’t do it again. I’ll still enjoy every game but I’m not extrapolating anything from beating down on the Wisconsins of the world.
August 20th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
I am not going to act like last year didn't make me feel awful, but I have been in BPONE mode ever since the end of the 2016 game. I am 38 and for the first time that I can remember in my lifetime, I didn't even watch one snap of the 2017 game. I had some optimism going into The game last year, but I wasn't shocked at what happened. I am the type that gets caught up in the hype every year, so there has always been a let down the last 3 years in regards to the end of each season, but that 2016 game has completely taken out any enjoyment I have in watching the game. The entire week before the game the last two years all I have wished for is the game to be over so I can know the outcome. It will be the exact same this year. I will not be excited for the game, my heart will beat at a higher level when I think about it, and I will just count down the hours for the game to be over. It truly does suck, but it is reality for me right now. The Game provides zero enjoyment for me and the worst part is we will win this game (hopefully sometime soon) and I will have been miserable the week of and during the game.
August 19th, 2019 at 8:54 PM ^
All analytics/advanced stats websites are going to be much more "reliable" later in the season as the more information we have the more accurate the "prediction model" is going to be.
This is also why it's also much harder to win betting on any sport the deeper into the season it is as the betting lines overall are going to be a lot sharper.
August 19th, 2019 at 11:07 PM ^
Can I ask you a betting question? Is there any other way to bet a season win total other than the over/under? If the over/under on a team is 10 games, and I think that team will only win 8 games, is there a way I can get someone to give me odds, say 4 to 1 or whatever, that said team will win 8 games or less?
I realize I can bet the under, but I want odds on the 8 wins or less. Does such a bet exist?
August 20th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
Pretty sure you can find a bookie in Vegas (or the Bahamas) to take any bet that causes you to plop down cash...
August 19th, 2019 at 8:54 PM ^
Not a good omen. Michigan doesn’t start and stay in the top single digits.
August 19th, 2019 at 8:58 PM ^
I like this Sagarin guy, seems like a decent fellow.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
That's promising. We've always lived up to preseason hype in the past.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:09 PM ^
I mean, with Harbaugh we pretty much have???
2015- far exceeded expectations. most people were predicting we'd barely make a bowl game and 8-4 would be seen as a success
2016- preseason top 10 and we were a ref screw job away from a B1G title and the playoff.
2017- this year we were definitely overhyped, however we were also devastated by Qb injuries and Tarik going down hurt more than most people realize.
2018- I think 10-2 or 9-3 was the consensus and what do you know! we did it.
August 20th, 2019 at 1:52 AM ^
We weren't hyped at all for 2017. We were predicted by multiple major outlets to go 8-4/5. And we ended... 8-5.
August 20th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
That would help my point, but preseason polls had us in the 9-12 ranking range, so I think that counts as overhyped despite what other prognosticators were saying our record would be.
August 19th, 2019 at 10:29 PM ^
This season is about this season not the past. Enjoy yesterdays clouds all you want.
August 20th, 2019 at 6:19 AM ^
I'm an old man and I enjoyed yelling at yesterday's clouds.
Does that count?
August 20th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Man I wish I could live by these words when it comes to being a Michigan fan but BPONE always snake bites me.
August 19th, 2019 at 11:21 PM ^
So far under Harbaugh, they have gone unranked to 12th in 2015, 7th to 10th in 2016, and 14th to 14th last year. And of course 2017
August 19th, 2019 at 9:09 PM ^
I think that the playoff committee should just accept this poll and extend offers right now. We're in the playoffs! All of this 'game stuff' between now and January 1st is mostly frivolous.
/s
August 19th, 2019 at 10:04 PM ^
Pretty true for Bama and Clemson
August 19th, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^
Well yeah because they tend to do pretty well at the "game stuff" part.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:10 PM ^
I'm not saying we are better than Clemson, but their schedule looks like our Basketball Pre-Conference schedule.
Woford, and a bunch of ACC non-contenders. (Also do not play the only other real ACC competitor Miami). The only question with Clemson is: do they lose at home vs a mid-tier SEC team. A 12-1 B1G champion should in a perfect world edge out an undefeated Clemson that likely skirts by a couple of close wins vs sub-par teams.
August 19th, 2019 at 9:24 PM ^
Have no doubt...we’d get hammered by Clemson. Top 3 defense paired with top 3 offense. Good luck!
August 20th, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
oh please.....That's what everyone was saying when Ohio State was going to play them in the playoffs and...oh wait....they got hammered. Nevermind
August 20th, 2019 at 2:12 AM ^
Clemson has more than proven that despite playing in a terrible conference they deserve a top-2 ranking so long as they're undefeated.
August 20th, 2019 at 5:54 AM ^
Anthony Thomas, honestly, It’s possible that any one of the top 10 teams could beat Bama if given the opportunity.Judging the sec is tough because by and large the sec contenders don’t play any OOC teams with a pulse. Plus they haven’t been dominating the bowl games like years past. Hard to tell how good a team is when they only play conference foes. We all know the sec is good but how good are they really. UM Hurricanes of the 80’s&90’s used this exact formula to dominate college football. You would be amazed at how much better a rested team can play than a team that is more battle tested on the back end of the schedule vs a team with chicken Saturday before all rivals play the last game of the year.we usually play msu&psu before we play UM.
August 20th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
The SEC schedule allows a bye week before rivalry games late in the year (even if the bye game is an actual game against SW Vermont St), and so the SEC teams take advantage of it. If the B1G schedule allowed such shenanigans, every B1G team would do the same thing in a heartbeat - including (and especially) OSU and UM. It's a chintzy practice, sure. But that's a chintzy league, too...
Fact is, both Alabama and Clemson (such a crap conference they're in!) have proven themselves in the national spotlight time and again. Until they get knocked off by someone other than themselves, they deserve those spots. Salary cap, or not...
August 20th, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
You just can't beat those $100 bills being harvested in abundance @ clemson $tree orchard. May be I will ask Isiah wilson for a bill...
August 20th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
You just can't beat those $100 bills being harvested in abundance @ clemson $tree orchard. May be I will ask Isiah wilson for a bill...
August 19th, 2019 at 9:22 PM ^
I'm buying it.