S & P breakdown of UGA and Michigan opponents
Let's look at the defense S&P ratings for the teams UGA has played.
Clemson - 4th (neutral site)
UAB- 48th
South Carolina- 41st
@ Vandy 111th
Arkansas 23rd
@Auburn 18th
Kentucky 33rd
Florida 31st
Missouri 105th
@ Tennessee 56th
Charleston Southern 131st (They're an FCS team and a very bad one this isn't their actual rating because FCS teams don't get rated but they lost to ECU who is 119th overall in S&P. You play an FCS team you should be penalized for it)
@ Georiga Tech 109th
Alabama 8th
Average is 54.93
Michigan Is #10
Is UGA's Offense good because their defense Is giving them good field position, more chances and having the ability to play with the lead? They also get to play every top defense minus Auburn at home where you don't have to deal with the crowd noise on the road. Playing offense on the road is significantly harder, just ask Washington or Ohio State.
UGA's opponents offenses ratings
Clemson - 78th (neutral site)
UAB- 53rd
South Carolina- 101st
@ Vandy 116th
Arkansas 24th
@Auburn 40th
Kentucky 18th
Florida 34th
Missouri 62nd
@ Tennessee 4th
Charleston Southern 131st (They're an FCS team and a very bad one this isn't their actual rating because FCS teams don't get rated but they lost to ECU who is 119th overall in S&P. You play an FCS team you should be penalized for it)
@ Georgia Tech 80th
Alabama 2nd
Average is 57.15
Michigan is #6
They've beat to death a bunch of really average to horrible offenses and played one good one in Alabama and got lit up. Michigan is NOT Alabama. Tennessee is a quality offense that couldn't move the ball on the ground. Until their first turnover (an INT) they were in the game.
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A look at Michigan's opponents defensive ratings
Western Michigan - 94th
Washington - 34th
Northern Illinois - 113th
Rutgers - 49th
@ Wisconsin - 2nd
@ Nebraska - 17th
Northwestern - 89th
@ Michigan State- 43rd
Indiana - 69th
@ Penn State- 6th
@ Maryland - 98th
Ohio State - 27th
Iowa - 5th (neutral site)
Average is 49.69
UGA- #1
We've all heard why UGA's defense is so elite and their elite front and LB's however they were exposed when asked to play from behind against Alabama. Michigan has played 3 top 6 defenses this season with two being on the road.
Michigan's opponents offenses
Western Michigan - 47th
Washington - 92nd
Northern Illinois - 69th
Rutgers - 114th
@ Wisconsin - 56th
@ Nebraska - 28th
Northwestern - 109th
@ Michigan State- 26th
Indiana - 112th
@ Penn State- 65th
@ Maryland - 41st
Ohio State - 1st
Iowa - 94th (neutral site)
Average is 65.69
UGA- #3
Michigan has played some horrible offenses this year. However something they can hang their hat on is OSU's offense was actually rated higher in S&P than UGA's defense. This matchup I am more worried about than UGA's defense. Bennetts legs are timely in converting 3rd and longs. UGA is susceptible on the interior of their O Line, Hutch and Ojabo/ Harrel/Upshaw have to make UGA commit more resources to blocking them. Michigan's DT's have shown they can beat 1 on 1 blocking consistently.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
WIN THE GAME
December 27th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
I'm a little bit surprised that UGA has the #3 ranked offense according to SP, but the matchup on that side of the ball makes me nervous too. Other than the OSU game, our defense hasn't put together a complete game against a good (top 30-ish) offense. We've gotten better as the season has gone on, but I think we'll need one more big step up to beat UGA.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
James Cook is a dangerman for them, he can run and catch. He is an APB very similar to Dalvin Cook shocking since they're brothers. Bennett's legs are a weapon and Bowers as a TE is an absolute freak. They're gonna try to isolate our LB's in coverage on Cook DO not let that happen.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
Yeah, they seem like a completely different kind of challenge than OSU. I feel like MacDonald's defenses have outperformed against the extremes (manball Wisconsin, superspread OSU) but underperformed a little against the balanced offenses (Nebraska, MSU). UGA looks very balanced and they can stress the linebackers. This is one helluva test for MacDonald and I hope he steps up huge.
December 27th, 2021 at 10:04 PM ^
Nebraska was all college crappe though...and MSU could only run, not pass vs this defense.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
The UGA freshman TE, Bowers, is a monster. We are going to have our hands full covering him. Look how much damage Iowa did to us on naked bootlegs.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
Most of that was play design not him running a seam route. Iowa's TE was open from play design if UGA is reverting to naked bootlegs Michigan can shut that down.
December 28th, 2021 at 7:59 AM ^
Checks score board….ya it was a brutal amount of damage culminating in 3 points.
December 28th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
Naked bootlegs hurt us in the first half only.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^
Wait. Clemon's D is #4? WTF. Was that the ranking when they played?
December 27th, 2021 at 9:58 PM ^
Yeah the idea that Clemson at the end of the season with all the data in is a top-4 team just jumps off the page as crazytown.
December 27th, 2021 at 9:59 PM ^
top four on defense
December 27th, 2021 at 10:06 PM ^
#1 their defense was actually really good this year, their offense was a dumpster fire. Remember though that SP+ uses prior year statistics and recruiting rankings, so all of that plays a role.
December 27th, 2021 at 10:49 PM ^
This is true. Clemson's defense was still championship caliber. Their defense was betrayed by their offense.
December 27th, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^
Right, this is not a surprise. Most of Clemson's games this years have been low-scoring grinds.
December 28th, 2021 at 4:58 AM ^
You can ask the same questions about the Wisky D though. Both we and ND sliced through them early in the season. Their stats improved throughout the year … I mean as they played mostly Big Ten West opponents.
December 28th, 2021 at 5:48 AM ^
ND did not slice through Wisconsin. ND had 242 yards of total offense. ND had two pick 6’s and returned a kickoff for a TD to blow open the scoring. Wisconsin wins that game if they don’t turn it over 5 times.
December 28th, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
ND’s scoring drives that game -
- 45-yard FG
- 51-yard TD
- 46-yard TD
- 4-yard FG
Wisconsin’s offense definitely did them no favors.
December 27th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
Game time can’t come soon enough
December 27th, 2021 at 9:43 PM ^
Nebraska is one strange deal.
December 27th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
All this doesn’t matter. Georgia 247 board says we are equivalent to Auburn or Kentucky. Automatic L in their book.
December 27th, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^
A little ominous that the best offenses we've faced besides OSU were in the 20s, and both had some success against us (in MSU's case, a lot of success). And OSU was not completely shut down by our defense by any means.
But it was frustrated *enough* by the defense, and Georgia's offense is not the sort of thing that is built to exploit a lot of what can be exploited. Shore up the LBs and the defense can hang.
December 27th, 2021 at 11:54 PM ^
Colson needs to have his best game in his young career
December 27th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^
I put those stats in a 'gee, that's interesting' category. In the end, did OSU's #1 offense beat us? Iowa's #5 defense? Did Iowa's Rimington center or super-duper tight end wind up as difference-makers?
We fans love to cling to these stats; they give us an excuse to worry, or to explain away a loss, or perhaps get a sense of confidence before a game. In our case, I think it's a matter more of worry, since that's what we Michigan fans love to do.
We lost to Michigan State. OSU annihilated Michigan State. Based on that common opponent, and OSU's S&P, you would be forgiven for thinking that OSU would walk away from Ann Arbor with a win. You might have thought Iowa would be a very low-scoring affair. Neither thing happened.
Georgia's stats weren't achieved against Michigan. Michigan's weren't earned playing Georgia. There are no common opponents. I don't believe they have much predictive quality for this game. We have two good teams in this game, one will walk out a winner. That's all we can predict.
Oh, OK. I have a hunch! It's not based on anything. 35-10 Michigan.
December 27th, 2021 at 11:42 PM ^
We need to stop (or at least contain) their running game.
December 28th, 2021 at 2:27 AM ^
Michigan's linebackers are in for a hell of a test. They won't be able to shut down all threats to the LB level, but if they can hang on for dear life the outcome should be a coin flip or better in the 4th quarter.
I can't believe I'm saying it, but after this season I like Michigan's odds against Georgia in a close game in the 4th quarter.
December 28th, 2021 at 7:04 AM ^
They're beatable.
December 28th, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
Every sports site predicts a low scoring game but I could see a 34-31 type game. The key for Michigan will be to our score UGA. Michigan has a lot more weapons on offense than we did earlier in the season. I think the key will be how well Cade and JJ play!
December 28th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Let's hope Gattis is able to draw up more timely creative plays that can get some points on the board early. I'm not real concerned with their offense as there's not much creativity there and if we can continue the bend not break mindset we shouldn't be beat by their O.
What worries me is their defense. That big front holding up our lineman from getting to the next level unable to get a hat on a hat leaving their fast linebackers enough time and space to shoot the open gaps and get tfl's and sacks. If we see that early and often I may revert to BPONE pretty quickly.
If we can get a bit of a lead and get them on their toes a bit I think we are in good shape, hopefully their big boys up front will get winded trying to chase down some thunder and lightening. If we ever had a group to do it these may be it! Let's Go Blue!
December 28th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
Getting their DT's to move laterally meaning turn their hips and run towards the sidelines they are not good at doing that. They are quick in their gaps and slanting and moving straight ahead but making think and slow down and try and redirect the play is not their strong point. Attacking them straight ahead isn't a really good idea.