Rushing Stats 2022 v 2021

Like many Michigan fans (hopefully, unlike the players), I can't help thinking ahead two weeks to the OSU matchup. And, like many fans here on MGoBlog, I can't help voraciously consuming every fact and statistic that might help predict that game.

I'm not a long-time statistics maven, but there's been enough chatter about whether Michigan's ground-and-pound rushing attack will be "enough" to "keep up" with OSU's offense that I took a little sojourn around the Interwebs to see what I could learn. Here are a few tidbits:

1. It's not your imagination (part 1). Michigan's rushing attack is significantly better in 2022 than 2021.

Here's a chart that illustrates that point well:

Not only is Michigan #3 nationally in rushing yards per game (according to this chart, ahead of service academies Army and Navy over 10 games), but its 2022 average is significantly ahead of 2021. Michigan's 2021 average of 214.4 rushing yards per game would rank it currently #14 nationally, one place ahead of #15 Minnesota (211.7) and two places ahead of #16 Ohio State (207.9).

2. It's not your imagination (part 2). Michigan's time of possession is striking, but maybe not that significant on its own.

There is some debate on this board (and likely elsewhere) about the significance of Michigan's time of possession statistics. I think this chart shows both the strengths and drawbacks of TOP as a meaningful statistic:

Michigan is #3 nationally in Time of Possession. That said, the teams at the top of the Time of Possession chart are a mixed bag--surely, Michigan fans can take some comfort to see Georgia at #5, but few of the others at the top of this list are programs a casual fan would think of as world-beaters (those of us in the DMV know James Madison is a true FCS behemoth, however).

IMHO, this chart tends to support the contention (h/t @DragonChild, among others), that time of possession is not, by itself, determinative of success. Yet, a 35.1 minute average TOP (over 10 games) is certainly helpful when coupled with some other statistics, as follows.

3. Michigan's scoring defense is Elite.

Hard to argue with this chart:

That's some good company to keep--#1 nationally, ahead of #2 Georgia, #3 Illinois (granted, playing in the B1G West), #4 Minnesota (same), #5 Iowa (same), and--oh, look--#7 Ohio State, #15 Alabama, and #16 Penn St. 

IMHO, this is where TOP figures into the picture. Michigan, Georgia, and Illinois aren't just good at defense (although they certainly are)--they're also not giving opposing teams that many opportunities to score. Teams know that they have to convert their possessions because they won't see that many of them, which is what leads to things like Penn State going for 4th-and-longs early in the game against Michigan, or teams being forced into more predictable passing downs.*

* (Michigan is also #1 nationally in rushing defense, ahead of #2 FCS powerhouse James Madison, #3 Notre Dame slayer Marshall, and #4 Georgia; Ohio State is #18, behind such teams as #11 Tennessee, #13 Minnesota, #15 Oregon St., #16 Wisconsin, and #17 Oregon.)

All of that still might not mean much if all that time of possession doesn't lead to scoring (again, h/t @DragonChild and others)--but in Michigan's case, it does:

4. Michigan's scoring offense is also Elite.

I recognize that people are going to believe what they want to believe, but, IMHO, this largely negates all the hand-wringing about bUt tHE pAsSinG gAMe:

Michigan is #5 nationally in scoring offense despite not having the downfield passing attacks of Tennessee, Ohio State, USC, or Oregon (and who are those three teams right behind Michigan in the standings?).

Returning to the issue identified by @DragonChild and others in other posts: Time Of Possession doesn't mean much unless you score after possessing the ball for that length of time. The differentiating factor for Michigan (and Georgia) is that--unlike many of the other teams at or near the top of the TOP chart--Michigan does score after possessing the ball for an extended period of time, which places added pressure on both the opposing offense and defense.

What does this mean for that game in two weeks? Will Michigan's pass defense hold up against OSU's NFL-caliber QB and WRs? Will Michigan's rush defense still function as efficiently against a 5-star caliber front seven?

Thanks for reading this far! Comments welcomed.