Rumor: Pistons interested in trade for Tim Hardaway Jr
There have been rumors floating that the Pistons would trade B. Jennings, the #8 pick and work out a sign-and-trade with Greg Monroe for THJ and the #4 pick, which would likely be Justice Winslow.
I love this trade if it happens for the Pistons. There's no way Jennings and Jackson would've worked out. Too much money into one position. And maybe Monroe and Melo will work out.
Here's another stor that tat quotes Ian Begley, who I believe broke the story.
The #4 pick is the way to go. Any way they would take DR from Ohio State instead of winslow? I really like DR's game but Winslow is right with him.
Saw an article/opinion piece that claimed that D'Angelo Russell is one of the higher risk players in the draft. Not sure I'd take him at 4 overall over Winslow.
I could see that, but as history has shown, it is all a gamble. I definitely like Winslow. I'd be happy with either and 1 of the 2 will be there because KAT and JO will go in the top 3 for sure.
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That was from a fivethirtyeight.com piece which stated that Russell has the best chance of becoming a star and the biggest bust potential in this year's class. Regardless, I don't think the Pistons are going to invest in yet another guard. That would hypothetically (with the aforementioned trade) give them Jackson (who is set to get a big deal this summer), KCP, Meeks (who has a fairly sizeable deal for a role player), and then Russell.
That probably wouldn't work. Too many bodies, not enough minutes to develop all of them and/or keep them in rhythm.
This isn't specifically about Russell, but teams like the Pistons should prefer boom/bust prospects. High-profile free agents generally go to big markets or fun places to live like New York, LA, and Miami. Detroit can't offer that. And since having stars is really important in the NBA, that means that the best/only way to get them is through the draft. I'd much rather see the Pistons (or Bucks or whatever) draft some boom/bust prospects, even knowing that most will bust, than draft a bunch of guys with high floors and low ceilings. They can get the low ceiling guys through free agency.
" High-profile free agents generally go to big markets or fun places to live like New York, LA, and Miami."
You forgot to mention "or they go back to the area they grew up in" because I'm pretty damn sure that Cleveland hits NONE of the qualifiers you list.
Plus, LeBron lives in Bath Township with nothing much more exciting than a Five Guys close by. I'm sure life is good in his gigantic mansion but for everyone without a two story closet that's about the most non-descript place imaginable.
FA's have a choice between any of 29 metro areas, counting NJ and NY as one. I am guessing that Detroit is somewhere between 25-29 for most FA's. I agree wholeheartedly that the Pistons have to build through the draft and through trades. FA's seem to add a 15% "Detroit Surcharge" to their demands when negotiating with the Pistons. It is why Detroit has had to sign so many "overpaid FA's."
Winslow could potentially be available at 8. Most mock drafts look something like this
1-4 in no order:
Towns, Okafor, Russell, Porzingis
After that there is a whole group with Winslow included, but the next two are probably Mudiay and Hezonja.
for Phil Jackson as he seems to me to fit the Bill Cartwright mold of a center Phil likes. If SVG is sold on Jackson over Jennings, then get value for Jennings now.
Then SVG will have done a great job quickly building a team to get in the top half of the dilapidated East.
I'd hate to get burned by bringing his name up, but Dumars started building those teams of the 2000s with the sign and trade with Grant Hill. I hope similar success can be found here.
I don't believe this because it would be an incredibly stupid move for the Knicks.
The Knicks have more than enough money to sign Monroe outright. So by making this deal they would essentially be moving back 4 spots in the draft and giving up THJ (who is on a rookie deal with several more years of team control) just to land Brandon Jennings, who only has just 1 year left on his deal.
That would be monumentally dumb for a team looking to build toward the future (though not beyond the realm of believability wherein Dolan is concerned).
This is either a smoke screen from the Pistons gauging the Knicks' interest, or there are more pieces involved in the deal than are being reported.
Needless to say, from a Pistons side of things I'm all for it.
You must not be familiar with the Knicks.
"The Knicks wouldn't do this because it is stupid" is not a real thing.
I mean, they have Phil Jackson now, right? There is now way they make this trade unless he is asleep at the wheel (totally possible), or Dolan throws a hissy fit and overrides him (completely plausible).
Or even competent? Coaching ability doesn't necessarily translate to his new job,
Who's interested in playing for the Knicks?
Lots of teams with better situations and plenty of cap room to sign Monroe. Especially if they loose their #4 pick in the trade, what is the BBall upside for him to sign there? Playing for DFish? Of course I am not a fan of anything NY, so I may have a personal bias. . .
The Knicks would not do this because it makes zero sense.
1. If they want Monroe, they can have him -- they are under the cap and don't have any bloated contracts other than Melo (who they don't want to move and won't) and Calderon (who isn't really that expiring anyway). If the Pistons got anything for this it would be minimal.
2. Jennings is not a significant asset at $8M. Swaping him for younger/cheaper THJ would be a one-sided deal. Knicks would require additional enticement to take the older more expensive injured player. He could become an asset down the line, but the free agent market needs to settle itself. For now, teams will value cap flexibility over having Jennings. That may or may not change.
3. Swapping 4 for 8 vastly outweighs the value of the other stuff. You're going from potential franchise-caliber talents in this draft (with a clear top 5) for a guy who projects more like an above average starter. Pistons would need to give up a major asset to do this - like next year's first unprotected.
There are some workable trades in here (e.g., Jennings for Calderon & THJ) but the rumored deals above are just very one-sided.
Incidentally, Winslow isn't going to go any higher than 6, so trading to 4 to draft him doesn't make sense either.
If you're not particularly enamored of the players projected to go in that slot, what are your options? You can take the player you prefer, who probably would have been available later, or you can swing a trade. Not everyone near you in the draft is going to be a suitable partner for a trade. I don't know if this particular trade makes any sense for NY, but I can see the value in getting something for moving down. At the very least, you'll save over $1M a year on the rookie contract. Maybe having this proposal floating around motivates another GM to make a better offer.
Do we prefer Jacskon to Jennings? I really liked Jennings and felt like he had great chemistry with Dre
I personally don't, but SVG does. I thought the team was at its best when Jennings was at his best. The wheels really fell off once he went out and they traded for Jackson. Jackson seems like a real high risk, high reward kind of guy. SVG seems to think that he can get Jackson to reach his potential and that that provides more upside.
Though TH Jr. isn't markedly better than KCP, this move would at least provide depth while also allowing the Pistons to move up in the draft.
I was going to make a joke about this, but then noticed that Jennings actually had a higher PER last season than Jackson. I was shocked.
Jackson did average north of 10 assists per 36 minutes played since being traded to the Pistons, though.
Also, Jackson costs $5M less this season (going forward though, they're probably about the same).
because he's a free agent. That could change in a year when Jennings is up, but he'd have to play well to earn it.
Jackson is going to get paid based on his potential. Jennings has sort of already reached his ceiling.
Jackson and Drummond had far better chemistry than Jennings and Drummond.
Reggie Jackson with the Pistons was the most dangerous pick and roll scorer in the league last year.
He and Drummond formed a ridiculously dangerous PnR combo, and Jackson's assist rate to Drummond was higher than any other one player to another outside of Chris Paul to Blake Griffin.
Jennings is extremely limited because he has no right hand (he could chop of his right hand and his play would only dip slightly), and can't attack the rim like Jackson. Jackson is not only good at attacking the rim, but he's also one of the best point guards in the league from 3-10 feet, whereas Jennings is terrible. Jackson's not as good of an outside shooter, but overall he's a much better player and gives defenses a lot more to worry about, especially in conjunction with Drummond.
I mean, on a per 36 minute basis last year with Detroit, Reggie was basically averaging 20-5-10 (19.7-5.2-10.3). He actually averaged 17.6-4.7-9.2. He was playing at an all star level for Detroit.
But productive isn't the same thing as dangerous. Jackson got a lot of opportunities to carry the offensive load.
Also on that assists per 36 number -- that's of limited use when you are talking about a difference of ~1.5 assists over a couple dozen games.
We know very well that Jennings and Jackson can both put up numbers -- the question is if the Pistons can win with them while doing it. In other words, can they do it within an efficient offense?
The answer, so far, is no. But we did see the Pistons go on an impressive tear last year before Jennings got hurt. With Jackson - they were still a pretty bad team.
Well that's a pretty crude analysis and a bit unfair, considering the Pistons traded DJ Augustin and Kyle Singler (two players who were getting 23 minutes per game) for Reggie and they lost Jennings. So Reggie would have effectively had to make up for Jennings', Augustin's, and Singler's production in order to counter balance what happened. That's obviously not possible. They also had to change up their offense to suit Reggie's skill set and find chemistry with a totally new PG. Also, you can't forget that Greg Monroe missed 11 of Reggie's 27 games with the Pistons.
After that disasterous 1-10 start with Reggie, they turned it around and went 9-7 (Greg Monroe was injured for 7 wins during this stretch) to finish the season, even with a depleted roster.
Their lineup of Jackson-KCP-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond played the 3rd most minutes of all their 5 man rotations last year, and their win% with this lineup was 80% with a +/- of +51, the best of any Pistons 5 man rotation. It was also far and away their most efficient lineup offensively, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54.2.
The change in the offense probably played to the Pistons benefit at the end of the year, as teams didn't have the scouting down and were probably off guard by the new Pistons. You also have to weigh in the end-of-the-year indifference some teams have (not just tanking teams) vs a team where Monroe and Jackson are trying to land big contracts.
I would argue the Pistons are a better basketball team without Monroe, just as they were a better basketball team without Josh Smith. Not that Monroe is a horrible player, in the right system he could be very good, but SVG wants a 4-out/1-in team around Drummond. Getting rid of Monroe lets the team operate the way they want to -- not to mention it opening the floor for the PG. The small-ball benefits are obvious to any Michigan basketball fan so I'll stop there.
The bottom line is that the Pistons were not appreciably better with Jackson or Jennings (or really, even Augustyn for that matter). The team's performance was more about the circumstances -- who was around the ball-dominant PG and who the team was playing. In that kind of system almost any PG will put up stats. The question is if the team will win.
For all his limitations and warts, Jennings has elite quickness that puts his ceiling at an all-star level. Jackson's probably the better day to day player, but he's not the kind of guy you build your team around if you want to contend for a title. His problems have been well documented. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/reggie-jacksons-oklahoma-city-problem/
If the Pistons can sit back and let the market dictate what Jackson is offered and then decide to match a reasonable contract - OK. If they aggressively pursue him with a huge long-term commitment, I will view it on par with the Villanueva/Gordon signings -- a pointless stab at being mediocre.
If I'm the Pistons I let Monroe walk (unless they can somehow get an asset via sign and trade), let the Jackson idle out in RFA limbo knowing you can bring back Jennings/Dinwoodie for the year if he leaves, draft the best player available at 8 (anything from a PG to a shooting big makes sense), and absolutely not make any short-sighted long-term consequence free agent acquistions (including Jackson).
best Pistons-related post/comment of 2015. Great info here. Previously I was in the Jennings camp, but this has me much more confident in direction of Reggie.
I would so love to see THJr in Detroit.
A dilema at pick #4 would be great to have. Winslow gives superb defense as well as solid offense, and is a player at a postion of tremendous need. But Russell is the potential real star in the draft at a position not in need. It might be worth taking Russell and pushing back our team development for a year. If they do take Russell, I wonder if they could trade KCP for a SF?
Either way, this would be a wonderful trade... which has me pretty convinced it won't happy.
are overrated because it's only for the short term. You should always think long term which is putting together the best possible team which helps the ticket sales naturally.
See Lions with Charles Rogers for example. Imagine the outcry if the Lions took Andre Johnson instead of Charles Rogers who is a local kid with great production. Long term, Andre Johnson has been the better WR by a wide margin.
Never ever pick a player based on local popularity. You should always pick a player with the best chance of succeeding long term.
I'm sorry but to say he was near all-star level is laughable. He's a well below average NBA PG. Jackson is solid at the rim, above average, but well below average everywhere else.
https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/568497581237669889
His various flaws have been well established and explains why OKC gave him away for nothing.
Jennings wasn't better in aggregate but it's not about a choice between the two if you are talking about establishing a franchise cornerstone. Jennings is on a one year 8M deal while Jackson is about to sign a huge multi-year contract.
You realize that those stats are all useless because they include his time in OKC, where he was jerked around, angry, and borderline gave up, right?
I used his stats with the Pistons, where he did, in fact, play at an all star level for 27 games, which is basically 1/3 of the season. Those stats are far more reflective of the type of player he will be in Detroit in SVG's system, because obviously.
Here are the per game stats of 5 point guards...
PG1: 17.6pts 4.6rb 10ast 1.7 stl .6blk 3.8to 44.5 / 30 / 78.5 19.9PER
PG2: 15.9pts 2.5rb 7ast 1.7stl .4blk 2.8to 46 / 34.3 / 86.2 20.6PER
PG3: 17.8pts 4.7rb 6.8ast 1.6stl .2blk 2.5to 41.2 / 33.8 / 80.8 19.3PER
PG4: 17.6pts 4.7rb 9.2ast .7stl .1blk 3.5to 43.6 / 33.7 / 79.6 19.8PER
PG5: 21.7pts 3.2rb 5.2ast 1.5stl .3blk 2.5to 46.8 / 41.5 / 86.3 21.5PER
Difficult to differentiate between them, huh? They were all really good. All put up outstanding numbers.
Here are the per 36 numbers of the same 5 point guards...
PG1: 17.6pts 4.6rb 10.1ast 1.8stl .6blk 3.9to
PG2: 18.8pts 3rb 8.3ast 2stl .5blk 3.3to
PG3: 18.6pts 4.9rb 7.1ast 1.6stl .2blk 2.6to
PG4: 19.7pts 5.2rb 10.3ast .8stl .2blk 3.9to
PG5: 21.5pts 3.1rb 5.1ast 1.5stl .3blk 2.5to
Again, all 4 guys are very comparable. All 4 put up very good numbers.
Point guard 1 is John Wall, all star last year.
Point guard 2 is Jeff Teague, all star last year.
Point guard 3 is Kyle Lowry, all star last year.
Point guard 4 is Reggie Jackson with the Pistons.
Point guard 5 is Kyrie Irving, all star last year.
So yes, Reggie Jackson did in fact play at an all star level with the Pistons. That is not debatable.
Pointing out that Jackson sulked for OKC unless he got the ball a ton is not making a good case for him.
He put up numbers for the Pistons - and the team lost. He ran the offense and got a ton more assists, but his efficiency numbers were representative of his career norms (i.e., OKC). He is notoriously bad on defense and an inefficient offensive player. What changed in Detroit -- there weren't better people around, so he got the ball every play. He didn't play better - he just got more opportunity.
Jackson is a guy that couldn't play beside Westbrook or Durant. A guy who lost time to Dion Waiters and was traded for Kyle Singler.
The league is FILLED with potential paper all-stars: guys who can fill up a stat sheet on a bad team (e.g., Shareef Abdur Rahim).
The Pistons - with an All-Star point guard - would have won a lot more games than they would have won with Brandon Jennings (post-Josh Smith trade). They did not.
Jennings is not a long-term answer to the Pistons PG problems and Jackson wasn't better than Jennings for the Pistons.
You need to distinguish between the time he had with like two practices with new teammates versus the last 20 games, when his numbers were great and the Pistons won more.
You speak in generalities and really don't know what you're talking about.
Nothing? They got DJ Augustine who is one of the best backup PGs in the league. Reggie also been asking to be traded most of the season because he wanted to start. OKC valued Jackson.
That was my initial thought too, but with SVG the Pistons are far less of a clownshow than the Knicks.
I mean, it's all relative.
I think the Jennings injury was the only thing that kept them out this year. The Knicks are a mess and if they make this deal then they are idiots. Monroe isn't coming back so I don't see the sense in any sign and trade deals. I don't trust Jackson as GM nor Fisher as coach. But SVG has made pretty reasonable moves since he came to town.
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Yeah cuz the Knicks have got so much going on.
I would love this as a Pistons fan. THJ is covered in the stink of New York but actually flashed some good potential, and if we could land Winslow, that solves our wing problems.