Road to Playoffs in '19
We can probably afford 1 loss to either Wisco or Iowa (Wisco maybe more likely), but we will HAVE to beat Notre Dame, Sparty, and Ohio State because of how late in the season we are playing those games. Losing to Notre Dame that late in the season might be a deal breaker. A loss to Wisconsin in September is recoverable. At Penn State will be a tough game on 10/19, and probably a white out. That would be a borderline recoverable loss, but is pretty late in the season. Similar to OSU's loss to Purdue timing wise. The future is always more exciting then the present....
8/31 Middle Tennessee
9/7 Army
9/14 Bye
9/21 at Wisco
9/28 Rutgers
10/5 Home vs. Iowa
10/12 at Illinois
10/19 at Penn St
10/26 Notre Dame Home
11/2 at Maryland
11/9 Bye
11/16 Sparty at Home
11/23 at Indiana
11/30 Ohio State at Home
December 28th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
The good news with this tough schedule is we have everybody at home this year. That should make a huge difference, of course it's hard to tell what we will be facing when Ohio rolls into town.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
@PSU will be challenging.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
No McSorley is going to be huge. The guy always played at a different level at home. Their D is uninspiring. We win by at least 2 scores in Happy Valley next year.
December 28th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
Also year 2 without Moorhead. The residual effect from elite offensive coaches can take a year to wear off at times.
December 28th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
At Wisconsin is always weird too. That bye week is extremely well timed though. Going Army-Wisconsin on back-to-back weeks is a recipe for a body blow loss. Having a bye week in between is super helpful.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
The rivalry games are at home, but not all of the tough games.
The best way to make the playoffs is the go 12-0 and win the conference championship game.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
Replace 3 starters on the D-line and find where the pass rush is coming from; then worry about playoffs later.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
I'm excited about Paye and Hutchinson, but yes, DT is an unknown - although we've got plenty of options. Freshman impact from Mazi or Hinton is crucial.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
Isn't DT a position where it is rare to see big contributions from freshman? Or is it just that we have planet-sized objects coming in as freshman who will be able to not get pushed back?
December 28th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
I think you can get some planet-sized objects that can perform well on limited snap counts. I believe special freshman can have an impact though, such as Ed Oliver at Houston and Dexter Lawrence at Clemson.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
It is a position that rarely sees immediate impact.
But We're in a position (wanting a good DT, but lacking information) that rarely leads to calm recollection of facts. Speculating that "our DT is going to beat the average, even though higher rates ones usually don't" is kinda a thing fans do, right?
I mean, its all a distribution. There are a few each year who break through. Odds are extremely low that our specific one does. But damn if we don't hope for it.
December 28th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Debbie Downer Alert:
Expecting an impact from freshman DT is very concerning, not usually a position where you get a first year impact player. Possible? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on us hitting that lottery. We lose way too much on the defense to even make this a consideration for me right now. Devin Bush was the heart of the D, and we'll likely lose at least one of Long/Hill not to mention Gary and Winovich.
Not to mention we still need a lead RB. I'm hopeful we find one between Turner and Charbonnet (Evans is not a lead RB in this system) and the OL should continue to progress under Warriner but a lot of firepower on D needs to be replaced and we don't have a bunch of 3rd/4th year players waiting in the wings..
We thought we were a shoe-in this year and then OSU decimated our elite D... I'm not writing the 2019 team off, but there are too many unknowns at key positions (DT and CB are my biggest worries) for to me even think about a playoff run.
Harbaugh is building a powerhouse, but we're not there yet. Ryan Day is no Urban Meyer, but we haven't beaten an OSU team with a pulse since 2003.. I'll consider the 2019 Playoffs once we're heading to Indy after beating OSU.
December 28th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Expecting freshman impact is a recipe for a bad time. Freshman impact should be a bonus, not part of the foundation.
December 28th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
Expecting freshman DTs to contribute is especially problematic when you don't roid-up your players from day one, like some programs (cough-cough) we know.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
I would say 2. Solomon didn't start a game last year, although he was heavy in the rotation after mid season, and Rashan missed half the season as well. I do understand your point, but I think possibly being young in the secondary might be our biggest obstacle.
December 28th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^
The three starters: Gary, Winovich, Mone.
December 28th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Even if people want to quibble with the number of starters there are 5 contributors from this year's defensive line that need to be replaced. DE is less of a question mark because a rotation of Paye, Uche, and Hutchinson should allow for solid run stuffing and hopefully solid pass rush. Then you hope for one of Vilain, Welschof,or Upshaw to give you spot snaps when they are needed.
DT is just hoping and praying at this point. If one of those guys emerge then maybe Paye can see scattered snaps at 3T on pass rushing downs. Dwumfor and Kemp are both situational players at this point. Hopefully Jeter can fill Mone's run stuffing role, but obviously that's yet to be seen if I can do that at all. Then you're hoping on true freshman and that's never a good bet.
December 28th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
That's not what the thread is about...but I agree that there has to be a return to dominating DL play.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
I feel like playoff talk for next year may be a TAD premature.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
no talking playoffs until we beat OSU
December 28th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
This is actually factual
December 28th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
The byes are relatively well placed. At penn state is easily the toughest combination of good team and on the road.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
Beat Florida - again.
Next year is an exciting topic though. The team has plenty of talent and continuity, and the scheduled appears challenging but favorable.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
Agree. Don't need another year of losing the last 2 games of the year and hoping for Sept. to win again.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
I forgot how rough our schedule is next year. Only "cupcake" game we really have is Middle Tennessee. Army will probably turn out to be a very tough game since they are returning a lot of starters from an 11 win team. Honestly if we head into the Ohio game with only 1 loss it will be a massive feat, would appear to be an even bigger feat that what it was this year.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Even though it's a rivalry game, I'm still counting Rutgers as a "cupcake" game.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Rutger.
December 29th, 2018 at 4:58 AM ^
At what point do the just get demoted to R*
Like, yeah, the are technically in the B1G, but we need to give them an asterisk
December 28th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
MTSU was a bowl team this year
December 28th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
1. Who wasn't? That's not the achievement it once was.
2. They lost to 4 unranked opponents this year, including a 28-point loss to Vanderbilt and a 32-point loss to App. State. They're also graduating a 4-year starter at QB. Maybe they aren't Baby Seal U., but that's still a cupcake for a team expected to be in the top 10.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
It's amazing how strong our division is at the moment. We really don't need ND on the schedule with the B1G East in it's current state of affairs.
December 28th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
Wow PSU then ND.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Yup. Pretty fucking stupid scheduling. Putting ND back on our slate is the single dumbest thing we've done to ourselves in a LONG time.
Pissed me off when it was announced. Pissed me off when we got beat in the opener this year and next year's stupid schedule is pissing me off already.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
Exactly. Putting ND back on the schedule is definitely one the dumbest things they have done. I agree 100%. PSU/ND back to back and also ND gets a bye before they play us. Just plain stupid. I don’t get it.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
My position on this has always been that bringing back ND would be fine for an OOC filler game that we played, time permitting, once every few years if that. If there wasn't going to be time, I was fine with that too. I have never understood the need to rush that rivalry back into existence, in part because it created a situation where we now play them right in the midst of our conference schedule.
December 28th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
When they scheduled ND it didn’t seem as dumb as it does now. The selection committee was all about the strength of schedule and the B1G has improved significantly in the last few years. Now it’s much better to not risk an L and not worry about the strength of schedule. (Until the committee changes the narrative again)
December 28th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
I totally agree. We had an opportunity to schedule someone in an area to gain more exposure - like an Arkansas. Let's expand our footprint.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
Putting ND back on our slate is the single dumbest thing we've done to ourselves in a LONG time.
Brady Hoke was hired on 1/11/11, so I guess it depends on what your definition of a "long time" is...
December 28th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
This is how I feel about the non-conference schedule through 2023. There's no reason to schedule difficult non-conference games if your goal is to maximize your chance to make the playoffs (especially when you're already playing nine conference games), yet we've got home and homes with Washington, Oklahoma, UCLA, and Texas. Why put yourself at a disadvantage like that?
December 28th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
We're doing what UCF should be doing. We SHOULD be doing what Alabama is doing. It's not like a cupcake snack ever hurts their playoff resume. How about Mercer or the citadel on the back half of our schedule for once?
December 28th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
What P5 team with a legit shot at the playoffs would accept a game with UCF? It's a no-win situation: you win, you were supposed to so you get zero credit for it along with the criticism of playing G5 team; you lose - you just lost to a G5 team.
LSU absolutely has the worst bowl game match-up, and its not close.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Yes, and the game next year should be dropped. Our schedule is insane. Alabama would lose two games with that schedule.
December 28th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
Yes, and the game next year should be dropped. Our schedule is insane. Anyone other than Alabama would lose two games with that schedule.
Fixed it.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
Good thing I only see 12 victories on that list.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
Army is not going to be an easy game. They look like they will be ranked next year and a triple option team is never fun to deal with.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Michigan is not Oklahoma. Army is a good team, but Don Brown's defense can stuff the triple option because the corners can operate without safety help. The tough game against Air Force last year was tough because the offense sucked, not because AF's triple option caused havoc. While it is not a 'gimme game' (like SE Middle UTenn St), it won't be an OT affair, either.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
Don Brown is replacing the starting d-line. It’s a lot to ask three new starters to face the triple option in week 2. And UM’s corners can operate without safety help? You must’ve missed the Indiana and OSU games.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
Lol. Army is not at those talent levels. You see the other 10 games? Those games are more representative to how our CBS will play against Army.
December 28th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
Has nothing to do with talent when it comes to Army. They run a weird ass offense Michigan never sees, and they have a team filled with veterans who are extremely experienced at running that offense. To do well against Army you need depth, discipline, and experience. Michigan won't have much of any of that on defense.
Plus, the corners might not factor into things at all if Army can just run it up the gut against Michigan's DL.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
The corners were fine against OSU. The safeties, though...