Road to Playoffs in '19
We can probably afford 1 loss to either Wisco or Iowa (Wisco maybe more likely), but we will HAVE to beat Notre Dame, Sparty, and Ohio State because of how late in the season we are playing those games. Losing to Notre Dame that late in the season might be a deal breaker. A loss to Wisconsin in September is recoverable. At Penn State will be a tough game on 10/19, and probably a white out. That would be a borderline recoverable loss, but is pretty late in the season. Similar to OSU's loss to Purdue timing wise. The future is always more exciting then the present....
8/31 Middle Tennessee
9/7 Army
9/14 Bye
9/21 at Wisco
9/28 Rutgers
10/5 Home vs. Iowa
10/12 at Illinois
10/19 at Penn St
10/26 Notre Dame Home
11/2 at Maryland
11/9 Bye
11/16 Sparty at Home
11/23 at Indiana
11/30 Ohio State at Home
December 28th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
Don Brown is replacing the starting d-line. It’s a lot to ask three new starters to face the triple option in week 2. And UM’s corners can operate without safety help? You must’ve missed the Indiana and OSU games.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
Stopping the wishbone is all about discipline in your run fits.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^
Agree with this, but Michigan's offense should overwhelm people next year. Just need a "good" defense to win most if not all games. PSU will be toughest on that schedule. Yes, I said it, tougher than OSU, MSU and ND. Simple, it is an away game with ND the following week against a team who got embarrassed the year before. If they get by PSU and are undefeated, Michigan will win all their games.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Who are they going to "overwhelm" when they play scared, not aggressive and with fear?
December 28th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
I would like a Big "Ten" title in year 5 at a minimum.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Every year is new. Predictions are difficult. We are still waiting on NFL decisions. There will be injuries to key players. There will be development of younger players. New leaders will emerge. A freshman or two may be ready to contribute. Someone unexpected will break out. Some players will disappoint. Some will transfer and/or get kicked off the team. Long story short...enjoy the rest of this year and let's worry about next year when it comes around. It's unlikely it will turn out how you expect anyways.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
Yeah, remember when everyone thought this year's Wisconsin-MSU-PSU gauntlet was insurmountable? Yet we won all three with relative ease.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
Remember when we hired Jim Harbaugh in 2014 and no one thought that by the end of year four, we'd have zero wins against Ohio State, zero B1G championships (or appearances in the B1G Championship Game, for that matter), and zero CFP berths?
December 28th, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^
Sounds nice, but after four years of losing to OSU and not even winning our division, with no significant improvement in sight, none of the variations on the theme of “enjoy the ride” are very inspiring.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
If we lose to either Wisconsin or Iowa, then I doubt we get wins against ND or OSU.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
Are you just killing time leading up to the bowl game tomorrow, or do you believe the shit you're writing?
December 28th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
I dont think I made any predictions to justify "believing in shit I'm writing" comment? Regarding your inquiry about killing time leading up to bowl - yes, yes I am.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Lets see how the offense looks against Wisconsin and then determine if playoffs are a possibility.
The line should be... good? GOOD! With Patterson and almost all of the wrs returning that side of the ball needs to lead the team.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
Unless Charbonnet blows up, we do not have cfp level running backs.
December 28th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
Turner will surprise. Starting tmrw.
December 28th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
Have you seen his highlights? At worst he will split carries with Turner and then Evans will still be here.
My only concern with RB is finding a guy who can pass block/pick up 3 or a chunk/catch passes out of the backfield. Not an easy thing to find.
Shot in the dark Van sanmnkngfngu is the guy. He has speed for a fullback and caught A LOT of passes in High School. He is also yoked so he can handle blitz pick up.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
Win all the home games and lose 1 somewhere on the road and Michigan will be playing in the BTCG and most likely the playoff.
Obviously, much easier said than done.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Until we beat Ohio State, we need to adjust our expectations to the level of Iowa or Northwestern. Iowa and Northwestern fans don't talk about getting to the CFP. They talk about 10-win seasons and getting to Indy (which, incidentally, is something that Iowa and Northwestern have actually done and we haven't).
After the most humiliating, embarrassing, and demoralizing loss to Ohio State since the Rich Rod era, I feel like there's no point in contemplating any accolade other than finally beating Ohio State. That should be the singular obsession of everyone associated with this program. We sound delusional talking about getting to the CFP when we've never even been to Indy and haven't beaten a good Ohio State team since before Facebook was a thing. Honestly, I would have found a 1-11 season more satisfying if that one win was against Ohio State (an extremely contrived hypothetical, to be sure) than yet another season that raised expectations only to dash them in humiliating fashion. Once we beat Ohio State (a decent Ohio State team, not the throwaway-season aberration version of Ohio State that we beat in 2011), we can think about talking like "This is Michigan" actually means something other than chronic underachievement.
Until then, we're a basketball school and I'm pinning my hopes for glory on hoops. That's been a much safer bet of late.
December 28th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
Yup. As sad as it sounds, until Michigan can beat OSU, they have hit their ceiling: 10/11 wins with nothing but a NY6 bowl game to show for it. In the Big Ten East if you cant beat OSU you probably aren't going to Indy, let alone the playoffs.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
The normal rivals/tough games match up pretty well for us next year (outside of the definite white out at PSU). Game i am really looking at is Army, Watching them play in their bowl game, and the fact that they are returning pretty much everyone is a scary match up. It's not even a trap game, they are just good IMO.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
Talking playoffs when in my estimation there are only 3 surefire wins on that list is, uh, interesting.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
LOL.
Michigan will again be at least a ten win team next year. The only question is if they can make it more.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
I don't think I said they would win 3 games. I said there were only 3 surefire wins. Would you bet your life right now on any other game save Rutgers, Middle Tenn and Illinois?
Edit: I know people love to blow sunshine but I don't see where the optimism is coming from regarding next years schedule. Consider:
- Army runs a unique offense and may even be ranked when Michigan plays them. Also Michigan will have several new starters in only their second game
- Michigan hasn't won in Madison since 2001
- Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 in his last 6 games against Michigan
- Penn State will certainly bring out the White Out for Michigan
- Not sure what all ND brings back I can't dog a team that is currently undefeated and in the CFP
- Maryland is an away game and they had OSU dead to rights this year, but I do think Michigan will probably win
- Mork has only lost at Michigan once in his entire MSU career
- Laugh if you want, but Indiana seems to have some juju on Michigan when you consider the talent disparity has not reflected on the scoreboard in recent games. The last 3 times Michigan has played in Bloomington the game has come down the buzzer
- I don't think I need to discuss OSU further
December 28th, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
Next year is extremely favorable for Michigan, especially if the corners come back. While the defense should take a step back, perhaps they won't have the gaping hole exposed by Ohio State now that Brown can see how ill-prepared they were to deal with that attack.
On offense, even if Gentry goes, this is the most talented offense Michigan has had since...the 2007 Citrus Bowl? 2006? 2003? 1999?
The recipe to win the conference: Hold serve at home and win one of your tough road games. If I had to guess. However, I'm really not sure how great either Wisconsin or Penn State will be next year. If I had to guess, Penn State is a 8-4ish team while Wisconsin returns to winning 10 games in a weak division. Michigan has to go 1-1 there and I'm leaning toward Wisconsin being better and that being the loss.
More than likely, Michigan will again enter the game against Ohio State with at least a shot at the conference title on the line and to be frank, should probably win it given who they bring back and that the game is at home.
December 28th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
Ending the year against ND MSU and OSU is favorable to you???
OSU is probably a L so let’s pray the team is undefeated going into that game.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^
Everyone thought going into this season our schedule was brutal, it ended up that MSU and Wisconsin sucked this season and Penn State wasn’t great. Who knows who will be good next year. Looks like a hard schedule though.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
Playoffs?
Shit. I'd be tickled if we went 1-11 with a win against OSU.
That is how bad the "rivalry" has been.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Buckeyes didn’t miss the playoffs because of when they lost, it was how they lost. They got blown out by a mediocre Purdue team. A loss to the Buckeyes is always hard to recover from because you probably lose the B1G East in the process. If they had beat ND this year and the Buckeyes lost to Maryland, and the Game was a close game and Michigan goes on to beat Northwestern, Michigan would have made the playoffs.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
I agree the score differential is what screwed them. But if that was game 1 of the year versus game 7 or 8, I think its a different story.
"It was september, Haskins didn't have chemistry yet, Urban wasn't coaching, etc"
There are all sorts of story lines playoff commentators and the committee can use to justify September losses.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
It wasn't just the Purdue loss, it was a combination of that plus all the underwhelming wins they had over vastly inferior competition. The fact that a 10-1 OSU team was ranked 10th going into our game shows that the committee did not respect their body of work as a whole, not simply 1 game.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Yeah this is true. That wasn't a good example to use on my part, but the concept remains the same.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
The Committee has been pretty consistent “DON’T LET YOUR ASS GET BLOWN OUT”
December 28th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
I mean eventually we'll lose to Indiana right?? Next years game against them on the road is gonna be a doozy...
December 28th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
Need to throw Pep out of the car before starting down the road
December 28th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
Obviously it's way early, but I'd expect Wisconsin to bounce back and PSU to continue to fade in the post-Moorhead world. Notre Dame and OSU will likely be top 5-10 opponents but at least we get them at home. Next year's schedule looks so much nicer than this year's
December 28th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
I see us playing 2 top 20 teams, and 4 top 10 teams in the regular season.
Army will probably be a top 20 team based on this year's performance and their returning production, but it will be only the 2nd week of the year, so its going to be hard for some coaches/ap to rank them higher than 20 as a 1-0 team.
PSU doesn't really play anyone before they play us on 10/19, so unless they lose to Iowa or Purdue, they will probably be ranked close to if not within the top 10 as a 6-0 team.
Wisconsin starts their season off at USF, so it's entirely possible that if they win that game, the'd be ranked top 5-6 when we play them.
ND plays at Georgia in week 3, so it's anyone's guess where they will be ranked on 10/26, but it could be top 2-3 with wins against Georgia and USC.
If OSU is undefeated when we play them, or 1 loss, it will be the normal top 5ish matchup.
Don't expect MSU to be ranked when we play them, as they will have gone to Northwestern, Wisconsin, OSU, and have had Arizona State, PSU and Indiana at home. Those 6 are all games they could lose.
Iowa just won't have played anyone and at 4-0 there will be plenty of undefeated teams the usual pundits put ahead in the polls, though they might break the top 25.
Purdue is my darkhorse to win the weak division, though for some reason they play all away games vs PSU, Iowa, Wiscy, and Northwestern. I see them as a 2 loss team with out of conference wins vs Nevada, Vandy and TCU. (We don't play them regular season).
December 28th, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^
It all depends if Jim H. will open the offensive playbook. UM was a 60/40 (run/pass) team this season. The defense may take a slight step backward in 2019. I don't think a 60/40 strategy will get the job done in 2019. He'll have an offense that will be heavily loaded with passing personnel. If he doesn't use it and continues to run the 1985 Bears offense, UM may only win 8-9 games.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Predicting 8-4.
The defense is going to regress big time and until I see Harbaugh roll out a competant offense for 4 quarters without the defense playing lights out. Waiting for teams to wear down or hope for a game breaking big play like we did against PSU, Indiana and Michigan State isn't going to work next year.
Expect more waggle plays and slow developing play action passes on 3rd down.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
I honestly don't think the defense will take a big step back. They'll be weaker at DE for sure but Uche, Paye, and Hutchinson is still a solid group. DT will be a push IMO if not a slight upgrade; yes we lose Solomon but it's not like he gave us much this year anyways, ditto Mone. Dwumfour and Kemp will be better just by having another year of experience, slot Jeter in and hope he can give us something and then hope one of the freshman can play and that's a decent 2 deep. The DL will probably be the weakest it's been in a while but still not a weakness overall. I don't think Ross will be a huge downgrade from Bush and Hudson returns, they just need to find someone like McGrone or Anthony to play over Gil and the LBs as a whole should be a strong unit again. Then the secondary will be stacked if Long and Hill return, with Metellus coming back and Dax being an upgrade over Kinnel. Overall, should still be a top 10 unit.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
I’m not worried about the D. What I want is for the offense to get it’s head out of its ass and become a lethal quick strike threat. All this plodding and wasting time is fine for some of the shit teams we play, but when you have to play a Big 12 type game, you better be able to do it. We have the weapons to do it.
December 28th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
You and me both. We're not gonna shut down OSU, especially without a dominant DL. Gonna have to score a lot of points. When you have Patterson and a talented group of receivers you have to open the offense to take advantage of your personnel. I hope Harbaugh makes the necessary adjustments this offseason and trusts Patterson more to just let him do his thing.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
If Long and Hill return or at least one of the two this defense should easily remain a top five-ten defense. Don’t underestimate what Daxton Hill’s speed can do for the defensive backfield once he gets acclimated to the game which should early in the season.
Bush will be the toughest to replace but Ross should step in nicely. We have LB talent that will step forward. We DE talent that will progress. Mazi is coming in early and has opportunity to play.
Regress big time is not the wording I would choose.
December 28th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
It’s completely dependent on the scenario going into and coming out of the game. If I remember correctly we didn’t even drop after losing to Iowa in ‘16.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
Lost 2 spots from 2-4 in the AP but remained #3 in the CFP rankings based on the road, close loss, and what several other teams did.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Your lack of consistency regarding structure and formatting in this post is concerning and interesting.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
I wanted to put the bulk of what I wanted to discuss before the schedule, which takes up a lot of space. But thank you for your informative critique
December 28th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
Beat ohio state. That is all.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
No real predictions until we know who all is leaving. But there are a few losses in there.
December 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Who the fuck scheduled Army?
December 28th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Was this a final "fuck you" from Dave Brandon on his way out the door?
I don't know how far in advance this was scheduled, but it wouldn't surprise me if DB scheduled them.