Resolved: pursing one-and-dones is mostly a fool's errand
I know this might seem like an overreaction to the last 15 hours, but I believe it's true nonetheless. There is an obvious trend toward going overseas. The G League will likely become a more attractive destination. And then there is the problem of bag men (I'm not alleging that with Christopher, and obviously it doesn't apply to Todd). Put that together, and the odds of landing a one-and-done are low.
Then there is the problem of guys making it to campus but not being invested in contributing to the program. See: Wiseman, James.
Finally, look at the last ten NCAA champs: Duke ('10), UConn ('11), Kentucky ('12), Louisville ('13)(boo), UConn ('14), Duke ('15), Villanova ('16), UNC ('17), Villanova ('18), and Virginia ('19). The Kentucky squad of 2012 and Duke in 2015 are the only two of those teams (to my memory) that were led by freshman. The last ten champs are instead mostly made up of veteran squads--and then there was the one team whose coaching staff hired prostitutes for them.
Anyway, I hope everyone is healthy and doing as well as possible given the circumstances. At the risk of being overly philosophical, we're doing well if sports are what's making us unhappy.
Villanova has the best recruiting strategy. They take top 50 type players who leave either in year 1 or 2 and then fill in the rest with program guys who are still pretty highly rated. You end up with a roster that is deep and extremely talented.
This sounds a little like how Beilein recruited. A couple top 50 or top 100 guys and the rest solid contributors.
It almost sounds like exactly the class Howard ended up with this year. With a roll of the dice and snake eyes for much more.
Agreed. This is kind of how the class was shaping up . Two one and dones and a bunch of guys who are going to be in the program for most if not all of their eligibility
I'd be perfectly fine with Michigan pursuing the Villanova strategy. It can definitely work for us.
The board seems to resemble the snowflake threads after a football loss.
Can someone fill me in on what game we lost yesterday?
/s
We lost volumes of fan fiction we had written in our minds.
COVID State is kicking our ass...
I am always of the opinion that people playing college sports should actually be interested in attending college.
crg, I couldn't agree more. It seems that simple factor gets lost in all of this. College sports should be for kids who actually want to attend school. IMO Michigan shouldn't pursue kids who have no interest in getting an education.
The whole idea of a kid playing college ball for one year solely because they aren't yet allowed to play in the NBA seems ridiculous to me.
The concept of athletes taking online classes and never setting foot on campus is absurd to me. Other than wearing the team's colors, what do those kids have to do with their school?
Please understand; I don't blame kids; they're making what feels like the best decision for themselves (though the game of pretending to be 'committed' is kind of ridiculous IMO).
I hope Todd is actually able to play overseas and enjoys his experience and paycheck. I wish him well in his career; I can't help but feel he's missing out on something very special.
One other thing - I do believe Michigan is and should be different from some other schools. Michigan should not be a place athletes go solely to play minor league sports. If Alabama and OSU and Kentucky want to be minor league way stations for athletes, let 'em. Michigan should have higher standards. Kids who come to Michigan should want to attend the University of Michigan, to experience college life at a high-level academic institution. If that distinction hurts us competitively, oh well.
Students who come to Michigan to prepare/further their careers in performing arts and science and other areas are very much part of Michigan's campus and participate in student life - there's no reason athletes should be different IMO.
I acknowledge not everyone shares my opinion. I accept and understand it's not a clear-cut issue; lots of room for discussion about compensation and insurance and other things.
I just wish NFL and NBA would establish a legit minor league system so that colleges don't have to fill that void. I will follow UM football and basketball even if all the best players went pro after high school. Universities should not be in the minor league business.
CRG-
I couldn't agree with you more. In fact, a couple of times in the past I've suggested that there should be no athletic scholarships... Give sports back to the STUDENTS. Universities should not be minor leagues for the pro sports. Back in the day, I had scholly offers from schools that are today considered non-P5 level, but did not meet my academic aspirations. Although I was offered to walk on in 2 different sports, I had to essentially "retire" from sports because the spots were given to others who would have had no chance of getting into UM if not being scholarship athletes.
I have mostly been a fan of college sports over the years and have had difficulty balancing the above vs the ungodly $$$ producers that sports (basketball and football) have become. With the coronavirus restrictions now in place, I don't feel sorry for the universities and the NCAA
CRG-
I couldn't agree with you more. In fact, a couple of times in the past I've suggested that there should be no athletic scholarships... Give sports back to the STUDENTS. Universities should not be minor leagues for the pro sports. Back in the day, I had scholly offers from schools that are today considered non-P5 level, but did not meet my academic aspirations. Although I was offered to walk on in 2 different sports, I had to essentially "retire" from sports because the spots were given to others who would have had no chance of getting into UM if not being scholarship athletes.
I have mostly been a fan of college sports over the years and have had difficulty balancing the above vs the ungodly $$$ producers that sports (basketball and football) have become. With the coronavirus restrictions now in place, I don't feel sorry for the universities and the NCAA
After seven minutes of deep reflection, I've decided I'm undecided.
On the one hand, this could simply be a high variance, force majeure kind of thing where a once-in-a-century global pandemic caused Todd and Christopher to make different decisions than they otherwise would.
On the other hand, until Michigan can get in on like 7 one and dones, in order to sign 2 or 3 (a la UK or Duke), then the putting of the eggs in the two one and dones basket seems a bit risky.
FWIW, I'm not relying all that much on what happened with Todd and Christopher to make my argument. I think the last decade shows that putting a lot of your eggs in the basket of landing top 10 guys generally isn't worth it. Of course, if the next Anthony Davis comes knocking, I'll take him.
I 95% agree. One caveat--that UNC 2017 team had 3 5*s in its starting lineup (Hicks, Pinson, and J. Jackson), but they weren't one and dones. So I guess the best of all possible worlds is to get 5*s who stick around. Not that it's easy to know that in the moment.
But yeah, I mostly agree that it's best to go after slightly lower-ranked guys who will stick around. Except for Brazdeikis, Castleton, Dawkins, DeJulius, Doyle, Poole, Watson...
Maybe split the difference between JB's strategy and JH's apparent strategy.
Your posts presume that all 5* are one and done and doesn’t take into account 5* that stay longer than their freshman year and are big contributors. I also don’t think you can describe recruiting 5* as a fools errand but also still want Anthony Davis. Show me a Duke fan that wishes Zion would have played his one year somewhere else in lieu of a multi year 4* contributor. I agree that 3-4 year contributors are important but there is nothing wrong with taking a swing on 5* that have legit interest. Had we landed Todd and Christopher, we’d all be ecstatic, praising Juwan. Even if we knew we only had them for one year, we would all still take them. Howard still has three 4 stars in this class, so it’s not like he sacrificed everything to get these two guys. I will agree that the two departures of DDJ and Castleton are the bigger issue.
No, I don't assume that. I think that 5 star guys fall roughly into three categories (with some gray area, of course).
The categories:
1. Your generational talents: Anthony Davis, Lebron, Kevin Garnett.
2. Likely one-and-dones: Todd, Christopher, many Kentucky recruits, etc.
3. Players who are ranked maybe 15-29: GRIII, Caleb Swanigan, Luke Kennard, etc.
I think it make sense to go for Groups 1 and 3 but not so much 2. You have to try to land a Kevin Garnett. And sure, some of Group 3 won't pan out and some will go pro after a year, but you don't have the high-risk/low-return of Group 2. Group 2 is the worst. Avoid Group 2! I say this as a doctor of science.
I don’t disagree but you can’t say “don’t do this” unless these perfect circumstances apply which Howard has probably no way of knowing at the time. Again you’re presuming Howard knew Todd and Christopher were one and dones. Maybe, but this is all speculation. I think you’re asking Howard to recruit using information that isn’t available until after the fact. These are unpredictable 18 year olds. He got three 4 stars and swung and missed on two 5 stars. He didn’t sacrifice the class or put all of his eggs in one basket. Sure, he probably picked the wrong 5 stars to pursue, but it was his first full year of recruiting ever. There is a role for the 3-4 year glue guys and the 5 stars. Just because we got burned doesn’t mean we should stop pursuing elite talent. I think we have a lot to be optimistic about in Howard’s young career. The knee jerk reaction to not pursue anyone in the top 15(other than Lebron, AD, or KG) from now on is an overreaction to this situation.
I'd like to see them continue to pursue the high end talent. I think we'll see better back-up plans in the future.
You have to pick and choose which McDonald’s guys to go after. Gotta go after the ones who will commit early and get on board in November, not the ones who drag it out to April.
There’s a reason why schools like UK and UNC backed off. Michigan is a national brand with a new coach and brought hype to JCs recruitment that UCLA and ASU wouldn’t, so it makes sense now.
Hopefully we see this in the 2021 class.
I think with the McDonalds All Americans you have to be choosy or you're wasting your time. Emoni Bates is 20 minutes away so he makes sense to go after. Jalen Hardy's family is from Detroit so he makes sense. Trevor Keels is EYBL teammates with Dickinson and Williams.
We need to focus on the guys we have a real shot with and more importantly have a strong interest in Michigan and what Juwan brings to the program.
Agree. Hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy for us to say now that Howard should have seen the writing on the wall. No doubt he will quickly become a recruiting expert with this experience.
I'd prefer to land a top 50 player that is close and several other top 100 players. But I'd love to find the guys that can score.. man I do miss Coach B's offenses.. they were just fun to watch. Coach Howard, did awesome and can't wait to see how he evolves this program..
The NCAA tournament is pretty random to a certain point. I think both strategies (One & Done Factory vs. Upperclassmen led team) have been effective at having a successful (measured by winning) basketball program.
Say what you want about Coach Cal and Coach K (in recent years)) but they have created a environment where One & Done teams have been successful. They get buy-in from One & Done players that other programs don't... how many players do you think would have come back and played college ball like Zion did in 2018?
Coach Cal seems to be able to create life long relationships with his players that are on his team for maybe six months? Those guys love him, long after they leave. Which in my opinion, helps bring in future recruits that are committed to winning while they are there (even if it is only one year).
In conclusion... I don't know. If Juwan's strategy is going to be to go for one & done types, I think he has the ability to be successful based on what I've heard about his ability to build culture and relationships.
Also (and I think this is getting forgotten) this is still a really good class. Missed out on a couple of big fish, but still a good class for someone in their first full year.
Here is a solution that seems to work: only recruit Canadians who can shoot the lights out.
Don't forget tall lanky Germans with cute moms!
We should be targeting guys in the 25-60 range and extending safety net offers in the top 100. Occasionally go after top 20 guys only if they're really interested, but most of the time I feel like they're just not worth the effort for the one year
I like every single top 100 guy in our class right now Dickinson, Zeb, Williams because they're skilled and gonna stay here at least a few years. Imagine if we had gone after more of those types of guys instead of wasting our time with some attention whore top 15 guys
Agree. You want good players, but not too good.
Continue to pursue one and dones but have a backup plan in mind. If they dont sign in november, go after other players. Juwan kind of did this with aiken and smith.
Can't figure out if this is a lips or handbags thing.
you big fucking baby.
this site has gone to shit.. and I know this comment doesn't help, but goddamn. pathetic this place is.
I wish I could demonstrate to you just how upset I am not. I doubt we'll even have a season. I'm just talking about recruiting strategy. It's not that important.
There has got to be a PHD student that could write their psychology or sociology thesis about this site.
3 days ago: this is gonna be an epic class, everyone is super excited. Juwan is an awesome recruiter.
Today: Why is Juwan recruiting great players? We should go after really good but not great players. 5* are a waste. Why (in his lone full year of recruiting) is he trying to make us into a one and done factory?
We really are an impossible fan base to please.
I have been of the Beilein school of recruiting for a long time. You're swinging and missing here. I really am just talking about recruiting strategy. I'm not down on Juwan Howard--he's been coach for less than a year, after all. This is a sport blog, and I am here to talk about sports. It beats being really sick.
Having spent my formative years rooting for Michigan in the 1990s I've seen both sides of the 1-and-done chase. It can bring amazing highs when they show up, especially in droves. It can also bring pain....as we just lived through. When Beilein was hired I was not one of the fans complaining that he'd never get the 5-stars we needed to win. I like the model of MSU, Wisconsin, Villanova, and others - build well-rounded classes with good players, take a risk now and then on the right 5-star, and make sure to have a couple of back-up plans for depth.
Howard still has three good recruits in this class, we just have an issue with quantity and roster make-up. Maybe there's a back-up plan we don't know about or maybe he did just get fleeced by these two guys. My biggest frustration is that there might have been at least some impact for DDJ and CC leaving because of these two and now we have none of them.
I've been of this opinion for quite some time. I think Beilein hurt himself in recruiting when he thought he could get in on the 5 stars after our first final 4. Predictably he got shut out by the Dukes and UKs. It's when he resigned himself to the top 50/100 types that he had more success. On top of that, the schools like Duke an UK who rely so much on that 1 and done 5 star talent haven't had much success actually winning championships. The problem is when even the top 50 guys think they are good enough to be one and done and they leave early to play in the developmental league.
So yes it hurts not getting two 5 stars this cycle, but what might hurt even more is the guys we didn't get/left because we wasted time/roster spots on in pursuit of those two guys.
i think your point is well made.
if you have family connections or inside relationships with midwestern/maybe east coast kids, go for it. for example: diamond stone (wisc) @ Maryland; Swanigan (indiana) @ Purdue; bridges (michigan -prep) & j. Jackson (indiana) @ msu; DJ Carton (iowa) @osu; Kristin Lander (Indiana) @IU (2021). other than that, forget it.
Make a mandatory 3 Year stay in college once you commit. If you leave to go pro anywhere in the world, you are ineligible for the NBA until that three-year period is up, and you have to pay the school back a set sum to cover recruiting and leaving early.
Force this18 year old kids, who are legally adults, to make responsible decisions for all involved. I would feel the same goes for coaches, if you signed a three-year agreement, you are bound by that agreement and cannot go to any other college until that three-year. Is up, nor the NBA. And if you go overseas, you have to pay that set amount of money back.
Sorry, but if people don't want to be responsible, then I think they should be forced to be responsible or just not participate.
Agreed. If you don't want to go to school and get a degree, don't.
It's time for colleges to STOP being minor leagues for pro sports.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:03 AM ^
The hindsight is strong in this one.
The fact that kids choose other schools doesn't bother me one bit. They have the freedom to ultimately choose where they want to play. What does bother me is the manner in how they make that decision. It has been widely reported that Christopher knew for a while that he was going to ASU. That in itself would suggest that he intentionally dragged Juwan along for the sake of keeping his name in the spotlight which quite frankly is shameful and disrespectful. So goes the game with these high profile recruits.