Rankings Roundup after Week 7: AP, Coaches, SP+ (Groundhog Day Edition)

If you’re like me, you’re not wondering when Michigan is going to play someone good. You’re not even concerned about when we’re going to play someone with a pulse. Oh no. You’re just wondering when we are going to play someone different. Continue reading for proof that Michigan has been stuck in some weird Groundhog Day time loop where they faced the same team over and over again every week for the past month, and also why this weekend shouldn’t be anything different. 

Those that have been following (thank you!) pretty much know all of these graphs by now. So, here are the numbers after week 7.

COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Focusing on the SP+ …

In this week’s edition of “I obviously don’t know shit about fuck with regard to how SP+ works”: what are Clemson, Miami and TAMU doing in the top-20? I understand that the SP+ is not a resume ranking, but come on…

And now, if anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:

• -#8 Penn State @ #2 Ohio State
• #34 Washington State @ #6 Oregon
• #12 Tennessee @ #9 Alabama
• #22 Duke @ #11 Florida State
• #24 Utah @ #14 USC

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

If it feels like Michigan has been playing the same team for 3 of the past 4 weeks, that’s because they have. And guess what, they’re playing the same team again next weekend as well. Rutgers, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Minnesota all check in as the #52, #53, #55, and #56 teams according to SP+. If we played Illinois (#58), I’d probably have to jump off a building or throw myself in front of a bus just to break the monotony. But at least we had a chance to get a bit of variety with Indiana. Or was that Northwestern? I really can’t tell them apart anymore.

Good shit, Iowa!

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 7

That’s 4 weeks in a row at the top of the SP+.  

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean for that category. For example, Michigan is 1.2 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offensive score, and 1.7 standard deviations below the mean from the average SP+ defensive score (this is good).   

If you're looking for Rutgers and Minnesota, they are right on top of one another just slightly above Nebraska and MSU for offense.

In other notes:

• Michigan, OSU, UGA, and Texas are the only teams that are > 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the good direction) on both offense and defense. 
• Nebraska and Indiana are 2 of only 5 teams that are > 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the bad direction) on both offense and defense.
• Iowa is the only team that is > 2 standard deviations from the mean for both offense and defense. Only one of these is in the good direction. I’ll let you guess which one.

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.

As I've been saying, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan State are all the same team. Try telling who is who in that muddled mess of mediocrity below the B1G average.

Also, Indiana and Northwestern are identical twinsies. And probably eskimo brothers as well (I’ll let you look that up). In any event, they need to get their shit together because they are fucking up the B1G’s average SP+ score.

It's Groundhog Day. Q.E.D.

 

Thanks for reading.

Go Blue!