Rankings Roundup after Week 5: AP, Coaches, SP+
Here are the numbers after week 5.
COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
Georgia and Michigan remain the consensus #1 and #2 in the polls, with SP+ again giving Michigan the nod at the #1 position.
Florida State and Penn State remain the big outliers within the top 10. The AP and Coaches polls both have them at #5 and #6, but SP+ has them significantly lower at #18 (FSU) and #13 (PSU). Florida St. had a bye this week but still ended up dropping 3 spots, probably because their big win over LSU lost some of its shine.
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Focusing on the SP+ …
Connelly pointed out that Michigan is the first team to be ranked #1 for two consecutive weekends this season. Nice! The offense also moved into the top 10 (#9) while the defense remains elite (#2). Meanwhile, Georgia slipped from #2 to #4, with OSU and Texas sliding up to the #2 and #3 spots.
That USC spread remains impressive. The #1 defense paired with the #52 defense. I mean, no one can beat that, right?
What’s that, LSU? You want me to hold your beer? What for?
[Ole Miss scores again]
Well done, LSU. Well done.
If anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:
- #31 Maryland @ #2 Ohio State
- #12 Oklahoma @ #3 Texas
- #21 Kentucky @ #4 Georgia
- #5 Alabama @ #11 TAMU
- #8 Notre Dame @ #29 Louisville
- #20 Washington State @ #17 UCLA
And in two weeks, we have #6 Oregon @ #7 Washington.
Meanwhile, in the B1G…
That’s not how the B1G works, Purdue. Don’t be getting all fancy.
Good shit, Iowa!
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 5
Things are getting pretty tight. Only three points separate the #1 team from the #7 team. Compare that to the preseason, where the difference was more than 7 points between #1 and #7.
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Has anyone heard from Iowa State lately? We seemed to have lost radio contact somewhere around ¡El Assico!
SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.
The SEC is continuing to come down to Earth. The average SP+ rating two weeks ago was 15 points, compared to about 12 points this week.
Anything you find interesting?
Go Blue!
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
toughness...+1
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
first I wondered why only OSU had a toughness score but then I remembered......
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Only tough guys apply used motor oil to their beard and hair to darken them.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
That actually sounds a little like something Dan Campbell would do...
DC is starting to look like the second coming of the Motor City Madman.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Based on what I've seen from Ohio State fans interacting with the rest of the world, I have no problem believing his Ohio vs the world theory.
If everyone hates you, you're the problem.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
Note "Ohio" and not "Ohio State."
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
He's right. Everyone hates that God forsaken place.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
As Brian once mused, Ohio has produced more astronauts per capita than any other state; what is it about Ohio that makes people want to leave earth?
October 2nd, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^
LeBron only got as far as South Beach and LA.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Look forward to this every week, thank you.
With the amount of effort you put in and information you convey, maybe consider making it a diary.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
totally agree - it's truly great content, and a diary would be great, so it doesn't get bumped by three more "lol schadenfreude" posts.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
Thanks JHumich and MattyBlue.
I thought about posting it as a diary, but there are so many great diaries and so little space. There was a great stats diary yesterday (nice work kyle.aaronson!) that already got pushed off the front page, bronxblue's classic "Best and Worst" is almost bumped off (even though it was just posted this morning), the Look-A-Like Diary is a mainstay on the board, and Iowatch! is one of my new favorites.
In short, there are so many great diary posts already, and many that are being pushed off the front page. I'd hate to be the one to knock any of these off. Maybe next week I'll try as a mid-week diary. Things seem to slow down by then and it'll allow the other diaries time to get the attention they deserve.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Very well done. Thank you.
Also, this part made me irrationally annoyed...
"And in two weeks, we have #6 Oregon @ #7 Washington.
Meanwhile, in the B1G…"
I'm already counting Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA as B1G for bragging purposes.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
ECE, there are a couple of very interesting matchups in two weeks - October 14th - Oregon v Washington, and USC v ND. It will be fun to see what happens in those two games.
If you look at the B1G teams in the '24 season - six (6) of the Top 10 teams in both the AP and Coaches polls are conference members. That list is: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Oregon, and Washington.
Enjoy...
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
Based on 2023 rankings, that is absolutely crazy!
But keep in mind that all 3 of those PAC schools will be breaking in a new QB next year.
October 2nd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
Oregon, Washington and USC are basically three variations of the same team. The Ducks have the best balance, and USC is most skewed toward O, but there are lots of similarities and they all play each other in the coming weeks. Hell yes. pic.twitter.com/sHjquKMM0f
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 2, 2023
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:23 PM ^
OMG, what is this ESS-EEE-SEE bragging rights nonsense?
UW, OU, UCLA, and (especially) USC can all be shot into the sun. They'll never really be Big Ten teams, because none of them have Big Ten fanbases. Even Northwestern fans are better.
That said, they want to join the conference, fine, whatever -- that just means it's the Big One and Little 17. The only bragging rights I want are those that Michigan wins. Bragging because of something somebody else does? That's very, very Little Brother.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Odds being what they are, I think at least one of OSU, Texas, or Georgia goes down this week.
PLEASE let it be OSU!
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
The trifecta - all three of those going down. And, if I may be so bold as to suggest one more - it would be for Louisville to surprise that team from South Bend when they meet on Saturday.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Does the big ten have the lowest avg rating now? The line looks slightly lower than acc. Woof!
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
Yes, but the ACC average is also being supported by non-ACC ND.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
USC has a crazy spread! - #1 offense, #52 defense
LSU to USC: "hold my beer" - #5 offense, #64 defense
Iowa to both: "hold my everclear" - #1 defense, #118 offense
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
To say that Iowa's offense is horrible is an absolute understatement. I was going to include this graph, but I thought it would be overkill.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I absolutely love the Toughness addition.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Some incredible shade right there
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
What about if Iowa played LSU? Minds blown.gif
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
LSU would win going away. We saw that with Iowa last week: an amazing defense that's forced to be on the field for 45 MINUTES!!! and 100 plays...will eventually break.
Meanwhile, I don't know that Iowa could consistently score if there were 11 cardboard cutouts of defenders in a Cover 3 shell...which actually isn't TOO far away from what LSU fields...
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:10 PM ^
11 cardboard defenders, wearing USC colors for realism.....
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Not so much to do with these rankings but more so I don't think there is a truly dominant team in the country this year and the CFP might have more 1-loss teams than usual.
- Everyone's allowed a bad game but we'll see if UGA, OSU, and FSU got theirs out early (Auburn, ND, BC) or if it's a harbinger of things to come.
- This year has to be make or break for PSU to beat either OSU or Mich.
- The B1G West is trash and it's quite sad that the B1G East winner could likely face an unranked opponent in the title game.
- I don't think we'll get a cinderella story this year i.e. TCU pushing for a CFP spot. All the heavyweights are mostly holding serve. Early on, it appears we may be heading towards a classic chaotic November. I don't see any conference getting two teams in this year unless SEC bias rears it's ugly head.
- Never a good thing to have such a bad OCC schedule but especially this year it seems. As has always been the case, early losses can be weathered as long as you lose to another top team and the last four letters of your team end in "bama".
- Lastly, how much will perception play into voters minds come December? Alabama almost made it last year based on the fact that regardless of their W/L record, they still had one of the most talented rosters.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Great comment...
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Unless Drew Allar gets a Rudock-level in-season Level Up, this isn't the year for Penn State. There's no way they will get consistent success on Michigan's defense, and no way they're going to keep up with Ohio State's offense.
Next year, maybe. MAYBE. It took arguably the toughest QB in B1G history (Sean Clifford) to keep Penn State's offense propped up in spite of themselves. How many bone-jarring hits can Allar absorb?
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
I would wager that PSU's defense is better than ND's, from what I've seen, or at least as good. So, just how many points will it take for them to keep up with Ohio State's offense? 17? 21? Ohio State isn't going to run up and down the field on the best D they've faced. Their tackles are terrible. How are they going to protect McCord?
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
OSU beat PSU at PSU last year - don't underestimate their toughness.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
I wouldn't bet on PSU to win. But I can't believe that PSU is any worse than ND. Although the match-up might be different. ND does have a good run game (although absolutely no passing game)
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Was OSU's game against ND really bad? It wasn't pretty but SP+ thinks pretty highly of ND. Beating a top ten team on the road is pretty good.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
Yeah - definitely not a bad "win" per se. It's actually a great win considering the metrics above but it was a tight one for sure and my comment was more or less that their in-game play wasn't anything to write home about even if they got the result they wanted. Maybe ND's defense are world beaters but 10 total points until the last second of the game with top tier WRs and RBs is as you said, not pretty.
I mean, if the principles of basic addition/subtraction in South Bend are similar to anywhere else in the known world, OSU may be an extra DL or LB away from having a loss. UM really needs ND to lose a few more throughout the season to take the shine off of that win.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
the 'toughness' metric took me a minute. "wait, there's an actual metric? and how does...ohio state...aaaaaaah."
a thousand cocktails to you, sir.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
In a way, it's fortunate that Scott Frost is no longer at Nebraska. I'm quite confident that the Huskers (under Frost's leadership) would be the #1 team in toughness and "outhitting" their opponent.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
george perles is just waiting to drop in a "the tougher team won" comment...but he hasn't had a reason to do it lately.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
tough guys never have to tell anyone they're tough.
Jim Mora had "Playoffs?"
Mike Gundy, "I'm a man!"
Ryan 3rd base "Cooper 2.0" Day, "we're tough"
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
Iowa really is incredible.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
The only thing I'll say about Iowa is - I really liked the final result of their game on Saturday evening.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Some of the Iowa D's statistical supremacy comes indirectly from their shit-stain offense, not from the prowess of their Defense. Yes, they field very good D's, but never top 5, IMO. However, Iowa's offensive gameplans go to great lengths to protect their D. They would rather get 3 first downs and punt than try and score, because that flips the field and runs the clock, and puts the pressure of making a mistake on the other team's offense. This is Ferentz's fundamental philosophy. Also, any time teams get a modest lead against Iowa, they generally turtle because the game is won, further making Iowa's defensive statistical prowess.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
The problem is that they have a hard time getting even 1 first down, let alone 3. According to Iowatch 35% of their drives end after a 3- or 4-and-out. Their defense is coming quickly back on the field with little rest after more than 1/3 of their drives.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
IIRC - the field position approach was a factor in the Iowa v MSU game on Saturday evening. Regardless, I'm glad the Hawkeyes won. Hoping Cade recovers completely and quickly.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
Phil Parker must really care about his grandma, who's no doubt held hostage in Kirk's basement. I mean, surely he can't buy into the 'punting is winning' concept of the Ferentz household, can he?
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
I like that SP+ confirms my eye test verdict against Penn State.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
As a cheapskate that won't subscribe to ESPN+ I am curious if the bottom of the sport has moved closer to the median as well. The #1 team has fallen back 6-7 points, has the number #133 team (or maybe the bottom 5 if there is a true anchor) moved up at all? I'm curious how much of this is due to the shortening of games and how much of it that the top end just isn't quite as dominant as usual.