A quantification of how terrible the 2017 recruiting class was…
Earlier today The Athletic ($) posted their yearly re-rank of the recruiting classes from 4 years earlier. Sadly, but not surprisingly, UM scored so poorly in their class that they did not make even the top 35(!) and were behind such luminary programs as…
#2) OSU (sigh)
#13) Appalachian State
#16) Louisiana (no, not LSU)
#17) Memphis
#22) Tulsa
#27) Troy
The bottom of the list, Kentucky, rounded out the top 35 with a score of 2.49. The authors score players based on the chart below and then average out the score over all recruits signed.
5 points: All-American, award winner, top-50 NFL Draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Minor or no contribution, left the program
They then add “bonus” points for total number of wins (If a team had 35 wins over the 4 years, they would get 0.35 points added) for the team total. They also report the “hit” rate defined as anyone who stayed in the program through draft/graduation (IE- grad transfers don't hurt). Using the above I totaled the 2017 class. There is definitely some subjectiveness in who gets assigned what score. For the team I estimated a score of (55 points (YMMV)/30 recruits) 1.83 + 0.29 win bonus for a sad total of 2.12. I can only imagine how many teams are between 2.49 and 2.12. Our "hit" rate was a paltry 50% with half the class leaving the program.
February 1st, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
It would be interesting to look at if it weren’t behind a paywall that most people can’t access.
February 1st, 2021 at 8:19 PM ^
Well, you could, you know... subscribe.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:07 PM ^
Well you could , you know....shut the heck up
February 1st, 2021 at 11:00 PM ^
Watch your language, young man!
February 1st, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
I prefer to look forward not backwards.
February 1st, 2021 at 7:53 PM ^
Probably a wise decision...
February 1st, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
Much easier if you never make any mistakes.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^
If we are going to look back, let's please look quite a bit further back.
February 2nd, 2021 at 12:45 AM ^
Does looking forward include staring at angry protests all throughout Moscow? lol.
February 2nd, 2021 at 6:28 AM ^
The other drivers on I-94 probably appreciate that.
February 2nd, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^
I look upward not downward
February 1st, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^
C'mon get happy!
February 1st, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
For purpose of the argument:
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/season/2017-football/commits/
There are some pretty good players on this list.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
Yeah, I was surprised. The four lowest ranked kids on that list were in order: Paye, Mason, Kurt Taylor and Brad Robbins. You would think getting good/great production out of 3 of the 4 lowest rated recruits in a class would bode well for the class overall, but I guess not.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:45 PM ^
Every time I see Justin Borden’s name I get sick.
A lot of nice high star talent on that list that fell by the wayside.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:18 PM ^
Justin "Borden" ?
Was he the milkman?
February 1st, 2021 at 11:52 PM ^
Damn autocorrect.
February 2nd, 2021 at 12:33 AM ^
That was a heck of a class. A lot of busts, but a lot of studs too.
February 2nd, 2021 at 3:56 PM ^
Wow! 17 transfers from the 30 man class.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
user name checks out
February 1st, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
I feel like we should get partial credit for how some of these guys performed at other schools. So, like, we get a split (2 points) of James Hudson's AAC all-conference honors, etc.
February 1st, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
It should be broken down by power five, getting conference USA all conference is not the same caliber player as big all conference. its still terrible
February 1st, 2021 at 9:02 PM ^
I wonder how different it would be if none of them had significant injuries. With no injuries:
Does Villain end up as an All-conference DE?
Is McCaffery ever passed by Milton?
Does Tarik Black continue the trajectory that had him as the most productive WR in the class at one point?
Does Malone-Hatcher see meaningful minutes?
Would St. Juste have stabilized our CB situation last year?
Then you had mental health issues with Hudson and Martin.
Off-field issues (academic or behavior) took away Samuels and Irving-Bey.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
St. Juste wouldn't have been on the team last year, regardless. He would've graduated if he stayed at Michigan
He only was on Minnesota last year because he had to sit out a year from transferring
February 1st, 2021 at 9:02 PM ^
That formula seems tilted towards mid majors way too much.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:05 PM ^
We might as well examine the classes of Brian Ellerbe while we're at it.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:22 PM ^
Let us count the number of people interested in looking back at the Ellerbe era...
February 1st, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
I see dead people
February 1st, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
Say what?!? Harbaugh is still the coach and this was his signature recruiting class and it was a massive failure.
But sure if you think Harbaugh is the football equivalent of Ellerbe then knock yourself out
February 2nd, 2021 at 9:00 AM ^
You should be hung (in effigy, I suppose) just for mentioning that name... Jackass.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:49 PM ^
What this informs one of is how bad Michigan coaching has been.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:53 PM ^
| Name | Pos | Last Yr | Lost Yrs | State | STARs | Riv | SC | ESPN | 247* | 247c | EE? | Career Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2019 | 3 | CO | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.42 | 4.44 | 4.20 | 4.42 | Transfer: Personal | ||
| RB | 2018 | 2 | NM | 4.00 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 4.11 | 3.91 | 3.99 | Behavioral: dismissed | ||
| RB | 2018 | 3 | GA | 3.39 | 3.00 | 3.46 | 3.52 | 3.50 | 3.47 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| Ben Mason | FB | 2020 | 1 | CT | 3.60 | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.85 | 3.48 | 3.51 | EE | (Played out eligibility-COVID) |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | 2019 | 1 | MI | 4.91 | 4.96 | 4.92 | 4.85 | 4.88 | 4.92 | EE | Early NFL |
| WR | 2019 | 2 | CT | 4.37 | 4.55 | 4.52 | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.42 | EE | Degree and a Transfer | |
| Nico Collins | WR | 2019 | 2 | AL | 4.32 | 4.44 | 4.27 | 4.32 | 4.20 | 4.35 | COVID | |
| WR | 2018 | 3 | IA | 4.24 | 4.13 | 4.17 | 3.87 | 4.79 | 4.25 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| Cesar Ruiz | C | 2019 | 1 | FL | 4.66 | 4.70 | 4.45 | 4.73 | 4.67 | 4.78 | EE | Early NFL |
| Chuck Filiaga | OG | On Team | n/a | TX | 4.38 | 4.21 | 4.33 | 4.39 | 4.53 | 4.45 | On Team | |
| Andrew Stueber | OG | On Team | n/a | CT | 3.74 | 3.55 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 3.55 | 3.76 | On Team | |
| OT | 2018 | 3 | OH | 4.19 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 3.98 | 4.50 | 4.12 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| OT | 2017 | 4 | MI | 3.90 | 3.54 | 3.91 | 4.30 | 3.83 | 3.92 | EE | Transfer: playing time | |
| Joel Honigford | OT | On Team | n/a | OH | 3.78 | 3.74 | 3.65 | 4.22 | 3.57 | 3.73 | On Team | |
| NT | 2018 | 2 | GA | 4.85 | 4.92 | 4.92 | 4.65 | 4.88 | 4.87 | Transfer: Personal | ||
| Donovan Jeter | NT | On Team | n/a | PA | 4.05 | 4.22 | 3.96 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.97 | EE | On Team |
| Phillip Paea | NT | On Team | n/a | MI | 3.85 | 3.82 | 3.87 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 3.72 | On Team | |
| DT | 2017 | 4 | MI | 4.07 | 3.86 | 4.05 | 4.20 | 4.22 | 4.04 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| WDE | On Team | n/a | VA | 4.67 | 4.54 | 4.62 | 4.64 | 4.81 | 4.72 | On Team | ||
| WDE | 2017 | 4 | MI | 4.04 | 4.13 | 3.98 | 4.12 | 4.02 | 3.97 | EE | Degree/Medical | |
| Kwity Paye | WDE | 2020 | 1 | RI | 3.66 | 3.71 | 3.55 | 3.87 | 3.53 | 3.65 | (Played out eligibility-COVID) | |
| MLB | 2018 | 3 | NJ | 4.56 | 4.71 | 4.62 | 4.36 | 4.53 | 4.60 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| MLB | 2019 | 2 | FL | 4.52 | 4.92 | 4.60 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 4.49 | Transfer: playing time | ||
| Josh Ross | WLB | On Team | n/a | MI | 4.16 | 4.13 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.20 | 4.15 | On Team | |
| Brad Hawkins | S | On Team | n/a | NJ | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.79 | 4.00 | On Team | |
| FS | 2019 | 1 | AL | 3.81 | 3.72 | 3.92 | 3.89 | 3.69 | 3.84 | EE | Degree and a Transfer | |
| Ambry Thomas | CB | 2019 | 1 | MI | 4.51 | 4.37 | 4.71 | 4.28 | 4.65 | 4.55 | EE | COVID |
| CB | 2019 | 2 | MI | 4.04 | 3.77 | 3.96 | 4.12 | 4.32 | 4.02 | EE | Degree and a Transfer | |
| CB | 2018 | 3 | PQ | 3.97 | 4.13 | 3.77 | 3.48 | 4.54 | 3.90 | EE | Degree and a Transfer | |
| Brad Robbins | P | 2020 | n/a | OH | 2.77 | 2.80 | n/a | 3.40 | 2.30 | 2.59 | EE | Degree and a Transfer |
February 1st, 2021 at 10:07 PM ^
Nice reference, Seth. I'm just slightly confused about why DPJ is crossed out but listed as "Early NFL" while Ruiz is italicized (not crossed out) with "Early NFL". Also, is there significance to the italicized players (Ruiz, Collins, Thomas)?
February 1st, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
Just a typo. Meant to not cross out DPJ. There were so many more guys who left before they had any significant contributions that I crossed out the whole column and worked backwards.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:50 PM ^
Thanks. Kinda gives me a sad to see so many transfers from that class, but that's how it goes.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:30 PM ^
Can you guys start putting quotation marks around Phil Paea's name? I have not seen evidence that this person exists. I would appreciate it if you would respect the Paea truther movement.
February 2nd, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
Malone-Hatcher is another one. He never had any intention of playing ball, from what I hear.
February 2nd, 2021 at 12:55 AM ^
Its too bad a lot of the DT, DB and FS left. I have not heard of any portal news about possibly getting some DTs and DBs. 2021 and 2022 may be rebuilding years.
February 2nd, 2021 at 9:04 AM ^
Rebuilding years, eh? Not sure the fanbase has a couple 'rebuilding years' of patience left in the Harbaugh warehouses... Ann Arbor Torch & Pitch Fork sold out pretty quick last October.
February 2nd, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
A quick look says in-state players are much more likely to stay at UofM. I realize the observation is based on very limited data, but it would be interesting to see the retention rate of in-state vs. out-of-state players. I admit to being biased in that I think in-state and Ohio-based recruits are more likely to stay the course.
February 3rd, 2021 at 2:22 AM ^
You forgot Kareem Hunt on your list.
February 2nd, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
Terrible class ?
Two 1st round draft picks.4-5 other NFL players and a few of the transfers could end up in the NFL .
Please explain how this was a "terrible draft class" ? How many schools from 2017 had TWO 1st round pics,and another 6-8 NFL players,not many ..... id bet on that
February 2nd, 2021 at 7:36 AM ^
Any class where half the players leave or don't see any significant playing time is not a good class.
February 2nd, 2021 at 8:28 AM ^
A player transferring and having success does not help UM football. Also, Ruiz was a 1st rounder and DPJ was a late rounder, so besides Nico, Paye, and Thomas I'm not sure how 5 picks out of 30 players is a success.
February 2nd, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
Kwitty and Ruiz are the 1st rounders .and 17 of the 30 guys saw decent playing time and some others saw some PT.
Roster for Roster 2017 your telling me Troy, Memphis etc had players achieve MORE SUCCESS? Success is how you rate a recruiting class !!
February 2nd, 2021 at 12:46 AM ^
That is surprising considering that 2016 was Harbaugh's best season and his team should have made the playoffs if a few lucky bounces would have went their way and a ref would have put that 4th and 1 that only gained a half a yard in the correct location.
February 2nd, 2021 at 4:27 AM ^
Momentum and mystique are so important...had that 2016 season closed out w a win over OSU and UM in the play-offs everything from that point forward feels so different.
The Harbaugh magic would have been the national story, recruiting would have gotten easier. Etc.
February 2nd, 2021 at 7:39 AM ^
And, you know, having to win a whole another game against Wisconsin. But if you repeat " he was one game away from the playoff" enough it becomes true.