PSU Passing D Versus Pittsburgh
I think a large part of this game rests on Shea Patterson's shoulders.
Penn State gave up 372 passing yards to Pittsburgh this year. The game was at Beaver Stadium.
Pittsburgh beat Delaware by 3 points, and Duke by 3 points the last two weeks. They lost to Virginia by 16 points to open the season. They aren't world-beaters, and they nearly beat Penn State a month ago at PSU.
This will be a tough game to win, and the "road at night" factor is a big one, as we've seen too much. But lets not act like this is an impossible defense to play against. If we can break some big pass plays, and Shea's nerves stay under control, this is a winnable game. So pumped for Saturday night.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
Right, they barely beat Pitt, the week after we barely beat Army. It safe to say they've corrected and improved a few things since then.
We have also, hopefully enough.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
We have?
October 14th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
the 1st, 2nd and 4th qtrs on Saturday were probably the best football our offense played all year, based on that, i'd say yes, we have.
October 14th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
I'm sure they've improved a bit but Michigan also found a way to keep Iowa under 4ypp while the Hawkeyes were nearly a yard better against PSU. The passing numbers were about the same but it'll be interesting to see if PSU can handle an offense that, warts and all, looked pretty good for 3 out of 4 quarters.
October 14th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
*** Against Fucking Illinois ***
October 14th, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
We kept Iowa under 4 ypp while playing Illinois? That's not a simple task.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
The passing stat from the Pitt game is not a good indicator for us. Most of those passing yards were 50/50 jump balls thrown by the Pitt QB that their WR came down with. If we know anything about Shea, it is that he does not like to take chances like that. The game will come down to how much the o-line can pass protect. If Shea can get enough time to get comfortable, we will be fine. The odds of that happening is not very good.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
The defensive script is out vs our passing game. Make our QB scramble and good things happen (not for us).
October 14th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
I don't know. I feel like Shea throws better on the run than he does in the pocket. They should roll him out every play.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:07 PM ^
PSU's defense has the ability to do to us what Iowa did-and more. The basic formula is quite simple: You run blitz-rush six against Michigan-taking away the running lanes. Have an LB/nickle and the DBs and safeties flow which ever direction Shea is flushed and the results are not good. Michigan's QBs-we know Shea at least-cannot make a defense pay for this. We will see what happens.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Hopefully we can run the ball a little bit, that would help our passing game. If we get stuffed in the running game it will be a tough road relying on Shea to sustain drives. Gattis needs to come up with a good game plan.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
It's not really a question of Penn State being beatable - they certainly are, and they've looked relatively pedestrian against teams with a pulse (Pitt, Iowa).
The problem is that we have 4.5 seasons of experience under Harbaugh to know that we tend to come out very flat in big road games and fold at the very first sign of adversity.
We should have a decent chance, as long as we don't fumble away the ball about 4 times. It helps that Saquon Barkley isn't in the backfield this time around, too.
October 14th, 2019 at 5:02 PM ^
I'd like to push back a bit on the folding at the first sign of adversity; Michigan was down 14 in a blink of an eye in 2017 against PSU and came back to make it 14-13 before PSU scored to end the half. They made that a game until the inevitable table disparity (particularly at QB) broke Michigan. Similarly, they came back last year against NW and didn't get rattled against MSU. Yes, Michigan has underperformed on the road at times, but the idea it's a bunch of quitters when the going gets tough isn't a fair characterization either.
October 14th, 2019 at 7:52 PM ^
Maybe Ric Flair can come in and give the pre-game speech. WOOOOOOO!
October 14th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
Good point. After reading this thread I have confidence our game plan will be ‘run zone read into stacked boxes without the read aspect’
October 14th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
We need to establish the run, I think thats where our identity is at right now, we havent transitioned to the spread offense incredibly well yet.. You have to do what you do well in a game like this. We have to do what works for us. At this point in the season the coaches should have a good idea what our strengths are.It just sucks because running out of the shotgun all the time is not easy.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Michigan could win this game 24-21 and we could lose 35-17.
The only decent defenses Penn State has played have held PSU to 17. A Purdue team playing with only half of their starters bogged PSU down at times as well. Michigan can slow them down. It’s going to be up to the offense to stay on the field. Requires Shea having a good running game, requires Gattis calling a good game, and requires winning the turnover battle.
I don’t expect a win, but I think the recipe for a win is easier than a win at Wisconsin would have been, in hindsight.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
This I agree with, Wisconsin was just a nightmare matchup for the defense in particular. Penn State is a better matchup on paper.
October 14th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
Can't believe I POSBANGED Spicoli...
Good analysis, I concur.
October 14th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
oh come on now, we could lose a lot worse than 35-17!
October 15th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Penn State's defense is good and Michigan's record against ranked teams on the road is bad. I don't think something like 49-7 is off the table. The wheels could come off again
October 14th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
The focus should be on how "WE" Michigan plays. Michigan has to step up and play winning football ,regardless of how the other team plays against us. Each game is separate from the others.
#EXPECT VICTORY
#CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
October 14th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
I'd feel good about our chances given the info cited by the OP except for the fact that Gattis has shown a complete inability to utilize the many offensive weapons we have at WR. Tarik Black has 15 receptions for 232 yards on the season, for example.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
Jump on them early. Fergodsakes, script the first 15 plays, don't deviate, and then toss all the ones that didn't work.
The problem on offense is the QB doesn't understand it (which is at least half the fault of the coaches). So simplify everything. Roll Shea out. Run a ton of intermediate routes. They'll be expecting deep shots and will try to bait Shea into them. Don't do it. Matriculate the ball down the field. We need McKeon back. Find creative ways to get the ball into DPJ and Blacks hands. How about a reverse? Or a WR screen?
If this were all about tactics, it's be a straight up rock fight. So don't make it about tactics. Let our guys out-athlete theirs. We are faster on both sides of the ball. Don't think your way to victory, Jim. Challenge the guys to show no mercy.
What I wouldn't give to hear the national media wonder, "where has THAT Michigan team been all season!?!"
October 14th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
the Borges Bubble Screen.....yeah, yeah, that's the ticket.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
Now would be a good time for Judgemnet Day, Part II
Or the sequal to Godzilla: King of All Monsters feat. PSU QBs as "The City of Tokyo, Japan"
Or maybe we can get the good ending to GoT: When the Northern Wall Stood
October 14th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
If only we were this Michigan again...
October 14th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
After Illinois I have no confidence that this team can win. Before Illinois, I was hoping that we would run an efficient offense that had all the basics down. Then we could add wrinkles that the PSU defense wouldn't have seen. This team is where it should have been after the second game of the season.
October 14th, 2019 at 7:56 PM ^
We should have all kinds of wrinkles now, cause the warts weren't working.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^
Two threads down there is a post about PSU's defense. You couldn't have posted this snowflake there?
October 14th, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
I actually think they sustained a functioning offense against Illinois for longer than any other opponent so far. That is good. (I throw out Rutger)
But they still have stretches where just nothing works on offense and they look pathetic. That is bad.
If they can limit the offensive funks to a drive here and there instead of a whole quarter or half, then they'll have a shot in this game.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
Your fandom should be challenged if you can't get excited for an away game at night against a top 10 team. I'm as BP#N3D (it's a trigger word for some, you understand) as the next fan, but lets all commit to shelving the complaints until the snoweflake threads open up.
Let's take a dump on Frames Janklin's smug head!!
Go Blue.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:47 PM ^
I watch 2 to 3 games every Saturday and I always see one team not taking shots down field at least a half dozen times a game. The other teams that do tend to have success doing this at the college level. A lot of times the receiver catches the ball and other times the receiver draws a PI call. If the throw is incomplete or intercepted the game does not automatically end in a loss. Having tall, fast wide receivers typically makes this process even more successful. I think this style of play might be worth trying.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
I got through the first sentence and immediately thought "Uh oh". Sad but true.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
Shea will need to run the ball (and not fumble) 4-5 times in order to prevent PSU from abandoning defending the keeper play like Illinois did... if he continues to hand off rather than keep, the run game will disappear.
Any team is 'beatable' as shown by USC at Georgia this weekend. However until Michigan actually does this on the road versus a top ten opponent, its hard to give them the benefit of hope imo.
Maybe this is the weekend that all changes? If I actually had to bet my house on the result however, i'd pick PSU as would everyone on this board.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
Iowa’s last drive shows the recipe to beat PSUs defense. Go over the top, 50/50 balls, etc... I don’t like their DBs.
I think our defense is better than we showed at Illinois. Intensity level diminished after going up 28-0 because of inexperience. However, we will still give up some points.
31-30 good guys.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
Here's the difference, however. Good teams improve over the course of a season. PSU has improved a good deal since that game, as expected. Other than some slight improvements on defense that were brought about, not by a coach's decision but by the necessity of injuries (McGrone and Hill), there has been no improvement from this team. That's 98% coaching.
Can we please just stop with the "this is the week everything clicks" and just be honest with ourselves that mediocrity is what we're dealing with moving forward?
October 14th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^
Youre totally BPONEing right now. Assuming other teams will improve but Michigan will not is a clear symptom of BPONE, take a couple shots and try to relax and have a good day.
October 14th, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^
Who's assuming? LOOK AT THE PLAY ON THE FIELD AND THE RESULTS!!!
I'll add a second one: can we also please stop fan-shaming and 'BPONEing' fans who are simply being realistic? How long do you say "this is the week" before you finally just admit "this is who we are"? Why is that so wrong?
October 14th, 2019 at 8:20 PM ^
No, you aren't being "realistic," you are reveling in your BPONE.
Michigan has looked neither great nor terrible. Demanding that everyone give up hope for improvement is classic BPONE behavior.
October 14th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Look for Shea to start running now that the 'season' begins in earnest.
October 15th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Let's hope he is finally getting closer to 100% healthy although at this point in the season, few are "100%"
October 14th, 2019 at 6:13 PM ^
This season we are incapable of exposing weaknesses in an opposing defense that has any sort of a pulse. Against, Rutgers or Illinois, sure no problem because they have so many weaknesses and it would literally be impossible to run an offense without happening upon some sort of mismatch. Against a team like Wisconsin we needed to be surgical about attacking their D line and taking deep shots, and our performance was anything BUT surgical. Same story at PSU. As of now I don't have the faith we'll be able to attack with consistency. Whether we win or lose will factor heavily on how our defense plays. If we go down by two scores we are most certainly done.
October 14th, 2019 at 9:33 PM ^
Pitt is their rival.