Projected Playoff Standings Update
With all games in the book pending the Utah/ASU game (both teams 1 loss, the winner should move up - the loser eliminated) here is a best guess of the playoff standings out Tuesday.
Key events:
- Florida State survived a tough road game v solid Louisville
- TCU survived a tough road game v solid WVA
- Ole Miss had its heart broken at the end of game v Auburn in what was basically an elimination game
- Miss State survived Arkansas
- Georgia self eliminated any hopes with a loss to dreadful UF
- KSU beat down an ok OK State team
- ECU lost to Temple - goodbye
- Oregon whomped Stanford
- ND survived Navy
- UCLA eliminated Rich Rod
Top question - how far do they drop Ole Miss with 2 losses? This should tell us a lot about the chances of the SEC getting 2 spots in the playoff. If this last minute loss drops them outside of the top 10-12 it would indicate the committee is going to be not much different than an AP poll and most 1 loss teams would always be ranked ahead of any 2 loss teams.
Note - KSU plays TCU next week.
Projection
- (1) Miss State 8-0
- (2) FSU 8-0
- (3) Auburn 7-1
- (5) Oregon 8-1
- (6) Alabama 7-1
- (7) TCU 7-1
- (8) MSU 7-1
- (9) KSU 7-1
- (10) ND 7-1
- (4) Ole Miss 7-2
- (13) Baylor 7-1
- (14 or 17) Winner of Utah/ASU 7-1
- (15) Nebraska 8-1
- (16) OSU 7-1
- (18) Oklahoma 6-2
- (19) LSU 7-2
- (11) Georgia 6-2
- (21) Clemson 6-2
- (22) UCLA 7-2
- (12) Arizona 6-2
- (14 or 17) Loser of Utah/ASU 6-2
- (24) Duke 7-1
- (UR) Wisconsin 6-2
- (UR) Missouri 7-2
- (UR) Colorado State 8-1
- (UR) Michigan 4-5
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:15 AM ^
Also OSU plays @ MSU, ND plays @ASU, and Oregon plays @Utah . Depending on how this Utah/ASU game ends either the Oregon or Notre Dame game will be huge and another elimination game.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:26 AM ^
If you look at the games that still have to be played in the SEC West, Big 12 and Pac-12 South, things are going to sort themselves out by the end of November. I'm not saying there'll be 4 teams that are clearly deserving over everyone else, but the number of teams in the discussion is going to get whittled down a lot.
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:16 AM ^
OSU will not be in the playoffs- lousy loss against VT, bare escape against PSU, we will probably keep it close in C-bus (nevere underestimate the emotion of a coach about to be fired in "the game")
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:55 PM ^
TCU, ND, KSU and MSU(not Michigan state ) are my top 4 teams
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:15 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:35 AM ^
I will be cheering for OSU to beat MSU and give them their second loss. I detest both, but at least I respect OSU. Then again, it would be great in a way to see Sparty finish as Big Ten Champion, only to get screwed by the committee.
November 2nd, 2014 at 8:11 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:07 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
OSU beats MSU? -won't happen. Check out the OSU boards, they know what's gonna happen.
Prediction of many there: their "Mensa" super smart OC will choose the best player and quit using him for the rest of the game after a good half- MSU will win narrowly
Then Urb will have a heart attack and fall on the turf
Then Marky D wlll come across the field and kick him before going to the locker room
"How dare da Urb diss da MSU like dat!"
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^
The only team with a competent offense MSU has played all year was Oregon and we know how that ended.
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^
Counterpoint: The only two teams with good defenses OSU has played (VaTech and PSU) both shut down the OSU offense. In addition, MSU's lone loss was to a very good Oregon team on the road, OSU's lone loss (and they should have a 2nd loss to PSU but for the terrible officiating) was at home to a bleh VaTech team.
November 2nd, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
OSU was starting a freshment QB in one of his first starts. MSU was also fairly fortunate to survive against Nebreska as well.
November 2nd, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
MSU was dominating NE until they started sleepwalking. Wasn't really all that close.
November 2nd, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
Nebreska was on the 37 yard line with 30 seconds left with a chance to win the game with a TD. So yeah it really was all that close.
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:10 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:23 AM ^
I think you're question about how they treat one loss vs two loss teams is spot on. Of course, there's a lot of football to be played. There's still a rediculous amount of games left between teams ranked in the Top 15. If a one loss team comes out of the Big 12, I think it's going to be pretty hard to keep them out. Of course, if the one loss Big 12 is Kansas St, Auburn can hold their hand up and say, 'Hey, we beat them on the road'. Same if a one loss team comes out of the Pac-10, especially the South. I realize the SEC West is getting all the love, but I think the Pac-12 is pretty solid, especially the South division and I think the Big 12 is a pretty good conference too.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:42 AM ^
Yes Oregon v Utah next week will be interesting too. Utah is built like Stanford. That defense is doing very good things and the offense is meh.
I think the only way the SEC can get 2 teams in is
- if Miss State goes undefeated AND Auburn wins out (incl Alabama).... or
- is Miss State goes undefeated and Bama wins out (incl Auburn)
The entails a 1 loss and 0 loss SEC West team. I dont think a 2 loss SEC West team gets in, even if they are one of the top 4 teams in the country.
TCU beats KSU and their road is quite easy the rest of the way. KSU wins - their only loss is Auburn - but still have Baylor and West Virginia and I dont see them winning out. Baylor has no chance due to their SOS and non conf.
MSU is the only Big 10 team with a chance due to SOS. MSU SOS is currently #63 lol. But OSU will only play one ranked team this entire regular season. But MSU needs Nebraska to win out or they are in danger of only playing 2 ranked teams the entire year.
FSU's seems to be in unless a sort of improving Miami FL rises up. Louisville was their big chance to trip.
ND will get in if they win out but they have to go to ASU, go to USC and host Louisville. They will trip vs ASU IMO.
November 2nd, 2014 at 4:47 AM ^
Alabama and Miss St. can't win out. They play each other.
Notre Dame winning out wouldn't automatically put them in. The only team better than 8-4 they would have beaten would be ASU. The only 8-4 team would be Louisville.
if USC loses to ND they will likely finish with 5 losses as will Stanford (at least). You only get so much credit for coming close beating a top team.
TCU will have beaten Ok, Baylor, W.Virginia, K-St. Kansas St. will probably win 9-10 games. One of Baylor/Oklahoma probably will as well. W.Virginia should win 8.
TCU should stay a head of ND. If they win out. There is no rational argument for them not.
I agree they probably lose to ASU. Or Louisville
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^
Auburn has to beat Georgia (w/Gurly back) and Alabama. Doesn't seem likely to me.
Miss St has Alabama and Ole Miss
The winner of the SEC West still needs to go beat the East Champion as well.
I think only one SEC team gets in.
The question is, does a B1G team get in ahead of the PAC12 or Big 12?
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:07 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
differing significantly from the rest of the polls. they haven't so far, which makes me think that if they feel a 2 loss sec team is a top 4 team, they'll make it in the playoff
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:21 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:26 AM ^
You still see 2 wins on this schedule?
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:28 AM ^
if I'd put Northwestern and Maryland in the win column but... I wouldn't be surprised if UM beats Northwestern. Maryland's a tough team to figure out. I think UM will have to play a darn good game to beat them, but I think it's possible. Columbus is a loss.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:36 AM ^
Looking at advanced stats Maryland = Michigan. Almost identical stats. And both teams games vs PSU show they are all about identical teams.
Northwestern is probably a step behind PSU/UM/Maryland but its on the road. And we dont do road games.
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:43 AM ^
As of this morning, Michigan and Northwestern are #70 and #71 in the Sagarin ratings as well, 69.21 and 68.77 respecitvely, which when you add HFA in for that game makes Michigan a hypothetical -2.73 point underdog going into the game. Maryland sits up at #40 with a rating of 75.53, but I agree that on many metrics Maryland is a more fortunate Michigan this season.
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:18 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
Yes I was pretty shocked to wake up today to see Maryland is 6-3 but their quality of wins is abysmal and they've been blown out by the 2 quality teams they played - Wiscy and OSU. So their record is far better than UM's and PSU's. But they are essentially the same team when you do smell test. Their "best win" is Iowa, an ok team but nothing special. That said they are beating the mediocre teams they face (Iowa, PSU) while we are mostly losing aganst that level of team. (Rutgers, Minnesota)
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:36 AM ^
I'm fairly sure the September Michigan wouldn't have come anywhere close to WVU, even at home.
Of course, I think Michigan should be better than it has played. (Of course, I wear maize-colored lenses.) But MD definitely has the better backward-looking resume.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:29 AM ^
N'W appears to be in a tailspin, defensively especially. Maryland will be a very even matchup, but we get them at home. We will be small favorites in both of these.
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:12 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:51 AM ^
It was suppose to be "Impossible is Nothing" (adidas), but he screwed it up.
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^
I still see Michigan winning against NW (3-6 team) and Maryland (6-3 team). I do not think either team is very good and we have just enough talent to beat them. It will make Hoke look better than he should until the OSU game.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:31 AM ^
If we are bowl eligible, we may slide up. Big draw. Now that we are being optimistic, can I haz San Francisco Bowl?
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:34 AM ^
Damn Utah misses a FG chance in OT. But their coach called TO to prevent delay of game. Utah comes back from TO and missed a FG again!
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:40 AM ^
So ASU wins setting up an elimination game v ND in the desert next week.
Oregon still faces a very very scrappy Utah team in Utah. That game smells a lot like FSU v Louisville and TCU v West Virginia.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:43 AM ^
Agree. I can't root for that douche Dantonio after running up the score. I think that Urban Meyer is a slimeball but I like him better as a person than Dantonio.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^
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November 2nd, 2014 at 4:49 AM ^
Watch the end of Oregon-Stanford or basically any game from the weeked. You kneel the ball.
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
Do you really think Urb won't run up the score on us given the chance?
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^
Urbz is a lot of thinks, but he is mostly about winning above all else. OSU's goal every year is to win the a national title. Dantonio's goal is to get even with people he thinks wronged him.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:44 AM ^
We do road games at Northwestern although it's not really road.
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:51 AM ^
MSU getting a ton of credit for 1 win (Nebraska) - and a "moral victory" vs Oregon. Next best win is... err.... Michigan... then 3-6 Purdue. Other wins are EMU, Wyoming, FCS team and Indiana.
Meanwhile ASU has a similar win (Utah), plus wins v Stanford and USC and Washington. Todd Graham needs to cry to the press about lack of respect like our friends in EL do.
Nebraska's best win is Miami FL. Then uhh 3-6 Purdue. Other wins are Florida Atlantic, Mcneese State, Fresno State, Illinois, Rutgers, and Northwestern.
OSU's best win is Penn State. Then uhh.. Navy or Maryland. And so on and so forth.
November 2nd, 2014 at 4:50 AM ^
MSU and ND are getting credit for good losses when they have 0 good wins between them. At some point you have to beat someone good.
November 2nd, 2014 at 5:16 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 5:59 AM ^
No its not based on last year at all but they are unfortunately getting some street cred after last year's wins over OSU and Stanford in highly televised events. And I assume the Oregon loss is giving them credit because they stuck around for a half. Sort of like Purdue did with Notre Dame.
The SOS of the Big 10 teams is atrocious - you cannot find a second quality win for any of these 4 teams at the top.
These are "best wins" for each team
- MSU has Nebraska
- Ohio State has Maryland (who somehow is 6-3 beating a bunch of nobodies and then gets trucked by Wisconsin by nearly 50)
- Nebraska has a Miami FL team that is basically Michigan nowadays
- Wisconsin has Maryland.
Here is a list of the 2nd best wins of all these teams who are complaining about lack of respect
- MSU - Michigan
- OSU - Rutgers
- Nebraska - Rutgers
- Wisconsin - Rutgers
Rutgers is at 5-4. Nebraska played them without Nova for half the game and Wisconsin without him at all. Once you get past Rutgers you are talking Illinois Purdue or Northwestern for most of them as the 3rd best win.
Kansas State has Oklahoma as its first win and for example as a 2nd win Saturday destroyed a decent OK State (who is not as good as it used to be) but played even with Florida State to open the year and would beat us or Rutgers by a healthy margin. So once you get to 2nd/3rd wins the Big 10 teams have almost nothing to offer since the imbalanced schedule had Wisconsn and Nebraska avoiding OSU (and vice versa) and MSU avoiding Wisconsin. So we have 4 teams of any strength and they are all avoiding each other in crossovers. And even a 2nd rate team like Iowa is not crossing over with OSU or MSU.
And to end the year K State still has West Virginia, Baylor, and TCU. MSU basically has Ohio State and a cigar break.
November 2nd, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 8:47 AM ^
The Big10 champ isn't going to be ahead of a loss TCU. That's just not going to happen. The quality of wins of each just aren't even close.