Possible that Wisconsin might be down to 4th string QB for this week's game
Link: https://mobile.twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/1320855185200132097
All very preliminary, but it could be that both Mertz (QB2) and Wolfe (QB3) are not practicing, with Coan (QB1) out already injured.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:24 PM ^
2020.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^
Ask not for whom the bell tolls . . .
October 26th, 2020 at 11:19 PM ^
Time marches on! Da da da da daaaaaaahhhhh!
October 27th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
... is the answer. The question is, "how many Wisconsin players on each side of the ball will contract COVID before the Michigan-Wisconsin game?"
October 26th, 2020 at 7:27 PM ^
I wonder how many of Illinois’ players are going to be positive. Testing isn’t perfect. That’s the issue; false negatives give overconfidence and then you throw them out there yelling in each other’s faces and now you’re down to the water boy for QB. Hopefully UW’s outbreak was after the game but with an incubation period of 3-7 days, it’s likely they were positive for the game.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:45 PM ^
False negatives can happen, but the tests are designed to minimize false negatives. False positives are (and should be) way more common that false negatives
October 27th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^
For sure but false negatives have more impact for spreading it - even though it appears as though outside transmission isn’t very likely even within close proximity. Nobody really knows at this point and I think they’re doing their best.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^
If you look at the NFL, the spread of COVID-19 has not occurred between opposing players on the field but it has occurred due to players bringing it to the locker room from their personal lives, having meals together, or other close contact in their training facilities. Contact during the play of the game has not been shown to be a major cause of COVID-19 transmission.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:38 PM ^
Thanks for sharing that link. Fits in what we know about COVID-19s spreading predominantly in closed, crowded spaces where people are in close contact with one another (e.g. the 3 Cs)
I personally think there's been too much focus on guys giving each other high-fives & coaches not wearing their masks on the fields (I say this as somebody who's very pro-mask and pro-social-distancing) and not enough focus on players being careful to keep their masks on while they're indoors & in close contact. It's the latter we really need to worry about.
October 27th, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^
Some of the locker room celebrations I saw this weekend made me scratch my head. I get players and coaches are excited about playing and wins. But you could screw yourselves over in your exuberance if you forget the basics.
October 27th, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
The biggest thing is that they have to be vigilant when they leave their athletic bubble. Everyone in their locker room has a strong incentive not to test positive for COVID. That's not necessarily true of the general public.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:35 AM ^
Bingo. Transmission has not been seen in any contact sport. Soccer, basketball, football, etc.
It takes at least 15 minutes of close contact with infected person for it to be spread. But even then that can be mitigated with a masks. Two hair stylists with Covid(asymptomatic) cut 100 people hair and as far as is known not one contracted it because they wore masks.
October 27th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Both, the stylists, and the clients wore masks. Just wanted to clarify that bit.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^
Good thing they are playing Nebraska then. They'll get outhit but still win the game.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:29 PM ^
If true, WI is close to football shut-down.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:33 PM ^
How many does the B1G need active to play? I know the SEC needs 53 minimum.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
I think you can only have 5% positive on your team.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
Yes, but most of the players that sit out haven't tested positive. They were close contacts to someone that did. That could be an issue for Wisconsin's QB room.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^
I have been looking into this, and that's not the case to the best of my knowledge. I keep seeing it here and on Reddit.
From this link and from a couple articles summarizing the standards, the positivity rate is calculated based on number of positive tests per tests administered. This is the normal definition. A timeframe/frequency is needed though for this calculation. Big Ten says they are using a 7 day average.
If the Big Ten only counts a positive case once, and they test all players every day, the 5% limit becomes extremely difficult to hit. Based on a 105 man roster, each tested once a day, this means you need 37 cases in a week to hit the 5% threshold.
I think it's more likely a team would simply forfeit than hit that 5% threshold.
https://bigten.org/news/2020/9/16/the-big-ten-conference-adopts-stringent-medical-protocols-football-season-to-resume-october-23-24-2020.aspx
October 26th, 2020 at 8:32 PM ^
I think the assumption is that the positive players are still tested daily and count towards the test positivity rate. Otherwise it would be damn near impossible to reach that 5% threshold on a 7 day rolling average without a full-scale outbreak as you pointed out.
https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/football/the-big-ten-is-testing-football-players-for-covid-19-every-day-heres-how-it/collection_c53d6ad5-2bc0-5464-a034-a57e2ddd3811.html
The above reports that 170 tests are given daily. Assuming that's accurate (I haven't been able to verify) that would be about 1190 tests per week, meaning that a team would have to have 60 positives on a 7 day rolling period in order to surpass the 5% test positivity rate.
The other parameter is population positivity rate being no higher than 7.5%. Assuming a population of 170, then a team would have to average 13 positive people on a 7 day rolling period to surpass the 7.5% threshold.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:40 PM ^
I think you're right about the population positivity rate but don't think so about the test positivity rate. Came across this link that also gives some examples.
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2020/09/16/big-ten-football-re-start-leaves-no-margin-error-players-students-communities/5818219002/
But as you pointed out, the population positivity rate is still pretty restrictive. UW is in danger territory.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
Definitely in danger territory. If they managed to contain the outbreak at 9 people, then it seems like they'd be good to continue playing assuming that the population is around that 150-170 mark and that at least a couple of these 9 players won't test positive by the latter half of the week.
The worry would be the more players test positive as the week goes and they'd have a legitimate outbreak.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:09 PM ^
Exactly. According to the numbers the entire state is close to a shut down. Illinois butts right up to them so they are likely next....looking at you NW.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:35 PM ^
If Wolfe is also out due to COVID then both are missing the Michigan game. Absolutely massive blow to Wisconsin.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
If they had close contact with Mertz wouldn't they have to sit out of practice anyway? Mertz hasn't had his confirmatory test results yet.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:49 PM ^
No big ten isn’t doing contract tracing because they test everyday
October 26th, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^
As Wisconsin fans freak out who will be the starting QB over the next few games, a shadow emerges. It’s Joe Stocco. Well, maybe it’s Jim Sorgi. No one can tell the difference. Back for their 14th year.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:56 PM ^
Russell Wilson on line 1.
October 27th, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
Scott Tolzien would like to have a word with you.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^
Man. Sucks for them. Sincerely hope they all get well soon and that it hasn’t spread further. Makes me worry more for the season given the large uptick in cases nationally. Michigan has done a wonderful job of keeping players healthy. Hope it continues for their (and our) benefit.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:50 PM ^
There is a zero percent chance every team gets all 8 games in.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:19 PM ^
Players get really loosey goosey at the end of games, high fives and sweaty hugs with everybody on the field including the opposition, and with the fans in the front rows for non-Big Ten teams.
They have all that discipline all week and all game, and then they toast it at the end.
The virus doesn't leave early to beat traffic.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:39 PM ^
Good point M-Dog. I noticed after the game how both teams were milling around on the field without helmets/masks. As soon as the game is over, they should head straight to the locker room.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:48 PM ^
I really dont get this statement. The players are in each others face all game yet the handshake is the one that needs to be avoided?
October 26th, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^
Let's say an opponents Olineman has it. Sure. He has been in close contact with our Dline all game. Maybe even a linebacker. Would you want our QB, RB and WR hugging them and talking after games?
October 26th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
Isnt the whole defense at some point trying to hug the QB, RB, WR? Idk man it seems like a Defensive lineman will get close to the QB on at least a couple plays a game. The running back is always on the bottom of some pile with defenders on top of him. The WR is always in lock with a DB. So if any one of those people are positive then Im not sure how some handshake is really going to make a difference.
October 26th, 2020 at 10:02 PM ^
Guessing there’s a pretty good chance our dline/linebacker would be hugging and talking to our qb/rob/wr too tho, so what’s the difference really?
October 27th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
These positive tests started Sunday. Game was played Friday. The outbreak was more likely derived from post-game parties since everyone in the game should have tested negative. Plus, Nebraska players are not showing the same outbreak. This Badger outbreak is coming from outside of football, likely from the Madison general student body.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^
The chances are high that many of the sporting events of this year just carry big mental asterisks with them and will be written off. It's Wisconsin today; it could be us tomorrow. We only had two QBs dressed at Minnesota, not hard at all to see something like this happen to us.
A "fits-and-starts" season isn't the worst thing in the world if the team builds toward next year and we aren't a championship-caliber team. It's really only a problem if it jeopardizes our chances for real achievement, but even then it has to be understood that this is the world we're in this year.
Edit: Might have to start preparing for the real possibility that we won't play Wisconsin this year.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:24 PM ^
I'm still mentally treating this season like one big glorious Spring Game. Roll out the ball and let's see what we've got. We'll keep score, but it probably won't really matter.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
Me too. Until we win the Big Ten. Then it’s real. No asterisk.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:47 PM ^
I actually will treat whomever wins as basically legit, barring some really weird catastrophe (with the slight exception that I will not grant this in public should it be OSU, but that's because it's OSU). If Clemson or Alabama wins the title this year, I think most will basically accept that. But bad results due to personnel losses should be treated with a grain of salt, and I'm not going to, say, dance on the grave of a Wisconsin or a Penn State if they lose a bunch of players and wind up .500 because they can barely field a team.
And if we wind up sticking walk-ons under center or in the secondary and just look bad for much of the year, I'm not going to put excessive weight on that. Frankly, though this is harder to admit given the enjoyment it can bring, I think MSU needs to bite the bullet and acknowledge that their program has been put in the worst possible situation by the combination of a worldwide pandemic and an egotistical now-former coach that nuked the program on his way out.
I'll happily decline to mock MSU excessively if I can salt in a little extra contempt for Mark Dantonio in the process.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
9 positives?
If they're still positive in their retests, this doesn't bode well at all for Wisconsin being able to field a team and playing the next few weeks, given the B1G Conference's 21-day requirement to be sidelined.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:20 AM ^
The 21-day rule is excessive. Should be 14 days like everywhere else.
October 26th, 2020 at 7:55 PM ^
All I know is you better keep everybody the goddamn f*** away from Joe Milton!!!
October 26th, 2020 at 8:14 PM ^
Upvoted because it's funny, but I get a laugh out of your typing out goddamn but not fuck.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:29 PM ^
It's true, fuck is no longer a curse word. You hear it everywhere all the time. Grade school kids say it. Congress members say it in public. Grandmothers say it.
Like suck, it has lost all original meaning.
So, fuck it. Say it loud, say it proud.
October 26th, 2020 at 8:44 PM ^
My brother in law, 3 year old and I were at the park talking about getting some ice cream on the way home. I said oh man I forgot my wallet, and the 3 year old goes ah fuck. I was so proud he got the context and used it properly.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:35 PM ^
My 3 year old corrected me the other day what I said “what?!?!?” She said “I think you mean what the fuck”.
October 26th, 2020 at 9:47 PM ^
'cunt' is the new 'fuck'