Let's assume Michigan finishes 11-1 in the regular season. 12-0 there's nothing to worry about, 10-2 and there's no hope.
IF the loss loss is to someone besides OSU or PSU, then we'd still win the division (unless Maryland beats us and runs the table or also finishes 11-1; let's assume that's not happening).
IF the loss is to OSU, then we need PSU to beat OSU AND for PSU to finish 11-1. Ideally OSU loses another game elsewhere. If OSU loses 2 games, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with PSU. If OSU only lost to PSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the loss is to PSU, then we need OSU to beat PSU AND for OSU to finish 11-1. Ideally PSU loses another game elsewhere. If PSU has 2 losses, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with OSU. If PSU only lost to OSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the latter two scenarios result in a 3-way tiebreaker, then Michigan NEEDS Nebraska to finish with a better conference record than Wisconsin AND (Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota) to cumulatively have a better conference record than (Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa).
So in summary we really should be rooting FOR Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota and AGAINST Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa. Unfortunately needing Nebraska to outperform Wisconsin in conference play to win a 3-way tiebreaker means it's very very unlikely Michigan comes out on top in a 3-way tie.
Since OSU/PSU play each other before Michigan plays either opponent, then that result will dictate the importance of the Michigan/PSU and Michigan/OSU games. Basically Michigan NEEDS to beat the winner of OSU/PSU, otherwise winning the division is essentially impossible unless the OSU/PSU winner that also beats Michigan somehow loses two other conference games.
Based on the fact that the odds of Michigan winning a 3-way tiebreaker seem slim to none, there may be a chance where if OSU beats PSU, and PSU beats Michigan, then the OSU/Michigan game could occur when Michigan is effectively eliminated from East Division contention due to the 3-way tiebreaker. In that case we'd need to beat OSU still obviously, and hope the East representative loses in the B1GCG
Seth, I can’t believe you’ve only just discovered Seoul Street! That place is an absolute treasure. I spent two years in the apartments next door. Hope you and your family are doing well.
I don't think Houstan missing his first 3 shots is a reason to decrease his minutes. Didn't he just go 0-fer in the first half against CSU and make 3 straight second half 3s to help turn that game?
Twill has been playing great in limited minutes recently and I agree he deserves more time. But, he is just not really an ideal 3. His 3pt%, while great, is on low volume and he just isn't the type of player that can get up 6-8 3PA in a game; he doesn't have the release for it and isn't the natural shooter that Houstan is.
I agree though. Give Twill more minutes by cutting Johns out of the rotation, and from there give more minutes to whichever two of Houstan, Twill, Diabate are most effective in the given game.
Thank you Seth for pointing out that Twill can take minutes from Johns. I've been so confused on why Webb keeps talking about reducing Houstan's minutes for Twill.
Twill is best suited at the 4 and Johns literally takes up 8-12 empty minutes per game at the 4. If we want Twill to play more minutes than simply eliminate Johns from the rotation and he'll approach 20 minutes.
Has felt extremely weird that this has been pitted as a Houstan vs Williams debate.
I think the implication is that Barrett will be on the field more given the manball opponent with Dax Hill playing a more traditional safety role. Thus, fewer snaps for Moore.
We really were moving the ball with ease but just kept shooting our selves in the foot that entire first half.
Patterson tried to get the edge on back to back red zone designed runs instead of following his blocks and cutting upfield. Then on 3rd down he fumbles the snap.
We jump offsides on a punt, the next play OSU throws a bomb to get down to the goal line and they score.
We drive back down the field and DPJ drops a TD pass on 3rd and goal.
I’m confident we’ll have a game plan to move the ball well, there just can’t be execution errors like the above. Then the defense just needs to tread water and hope for the best.
Man, that 2pt conversion evidence seems pretty damning. Live I thought it might not have been a catch, but the broadcast was so terrible I didn’t even give it much of a second thought.
The only thing I’m thinking is that did those first handful of steps by the WR qualify as “completing the process” of the catch, and therefore the rule Seth quoted may not apply?
“If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass…” Maybe the refs were thinking that those first few steps completed the act of catching the pass and then he went to the ground.
It was the post game presser with Cade. He called it the LB, but it was actually the DB that was on Sainristil presnap that went to the flat, instead of dropping into zone where the slant was supposed to go I’m guessing is what the actual read is. Explicitly not a pre-snap read according to the guy that threw the ball, so
That play where McNamara scrambled 20 yards is simply not a hold. MSU would’ve gotten called for holding on every play if it was called that way. You’re allowed to have your hand on the DL’s chest, which is what happened in on that play.
Complaining about holding is weak considering I remember plenty of plays where our DL got held that wasn’t called. MSU’s OL had a disastrous time blocking Hutchinson and Ojabo, it follows that you’d expect MSU to pick up more holding calls.
And yes, that’s DPI without a shadow a doubt. If you think intentionally running into a WRs chest isn’t DPI, then throw the flag for the other DB holding the hips of the WR and impeding his ability to catch the pass. Literally two instances of DPI on that play
McNamara stated in the post game presser that he was reading that LB jumping to the flat and that CJ was the right read on the slant route.
That play wasn’t a designed pick play and I’m not sure how you can give Cade a -2 for making the proper read and throwing the ball to an open WR that blatantly gets interfered with by two(!!!) DBs.
Sure, the second read was arguably more open, but are QBs really expected to ignore a proper 1st read and look for something better?
also, yeah it looked like a pass to Sainristill could’ve gone the distance. But watch that angle from the back. The safety is drifting towards the sideline and CJ has his man beat on the slant. If that LB doesn’t literally run into his chest, then CJ could easily be off to the races there as well.
It was kind of an awkward segment because it did really come across like he was bashing Cade even though he’d backtrack and say that he played a good game, but it wasn’t good enough when Webb would push back.
DG is looking it from the perspective of a football player, and I’m sure Cade and the coaches will agree when they watch tape, that a lot of plays were still left on the field that Cade can improve on.
But, like, this is a segment for casual fans, and not film study. Was just kind of odd that most of the plays Gardner chose were critiques and very few were some of the very clutch 3rd downs that Cade converted.
Re: the 4th and 3 pick play that McNamara threw to the “pick” guy.
According to space coyote and McNamara himself, that isn’t a designed pick play and you read it inside to outside. McNamara read the LB bite towards the flat, so the read necessitated the throw to CJ on the slant. Issue being CJ was clearly interfered with (the pick) and the refs are cowards.
"I cannot fathom a team that has been taken apart by mesh not running a zone that handles mesh on third and seven, but Green backs off to the goal line and the conversion here is even easier than Michigan's usual man coverage. Michigan's zone issues are all mental. This one gives up a wide open throw directly in front of the QBs face. "
Gray drops into almost an identical pattern on the bottom of the screen. Either both Gray and Green made the same error (possible) or this is a scheme that was drawn up.
Definitely in danger territory. If they managed to contain the outbreak at 9 people, then it seems like they'd be good to continue playing assuming that the population is around that 150-170 mark and that at least a couple of these 9 players won't test positive by the latter half of the week.
The worry would be the more players test positive as the week goes and they'd have a legitimate outbreak.
I think the assumption is that the positive players are still tested daily and count towards the test positivity rate. Otherwise it would be damn near impossible to reach that 5% threshold on a 7 day rolling average without a full-scale outbreak as you pointed out.
The above reports that 170 tests are given daily. Assuming that's accurate (I haven't been able to verify) that would be about 1190 tests per week, meaning that a team would have to have 60 positives on a 7 day rolling period in order to surpass the 5% test positivity rate.
The other parameter is population positivity rate being no higher than 7.5%. Assuming a population of 170, then a team would have to average 13 positive people on a 7 day rolling period to surpass the 7.5% threshold.
Is that second comment what was referred to as "obvious homophobia" on twitter? That seems like a massive stretch to make such a serious accusation. Granted there may be other evidence or occurrences of WD making homophobic comments on this board, but I assume that would've been posted in place of those two comments as homophobia obviously deserves a swift banhammer.
But that second comment is clearly a joke about Lebron fans only having love for Lebron and nobody else (man or woman). I don't even see a world where that would be considered homophobic unless you a) make the borderline sexist assumption that all Lebron fans are male AND b) make the leap in logic that Lebron fans are lame because they "love" Lebron (homophobia) and not because they are unhealthily obsessed with him.
I just think accusing someone of needing to "reevaulate their obvious homophobia" is a bad look without providing any evidence.
The stars are weighted. The stats on the leaderboard of the game page are not accurate because it just counts total stars. When in reality a 5 star player is about 32 times as powerful as a 1 star player.
Clemson's participation is doing fine. They are helping us. Trust me.
They have about 1000 star power total and we have about 4000 star power. Them fully coordinating with us every turn effectively gives us a 25% power increase. Clemson has been one of our best allies. They are a huge help.
Looks like you will have to wait those 4 days to become a 3 star. You could get 500 karma overall on /r/cfb to level up to a 3 star quicker if you have the time. Otherwise, waiting 4 days will get you there.
The orders are referencing the territories to attack. Every team started the gaming owning their single home territory. Then as the game progresses enemy teams take over land and kill other teams. For example, Penn State is dead and Michigan owns the Penn State territory. Meaning that we want to "Defend Penn State".
If your order was to "Attack Cincinnati" that means we want you to attack the Cincinnati homeland that Ohio State currently owns. In order to do this you will want to look for the Cincinnati logo under the "Attack" column on the game page.
Hey guys. Since a new day has started you can clock in new actions. So be sure to revisit the michigancfbrisk.com website to get a new order and make another move today!!!
Also. Just a heads up guys. Please don't share order details in your comments. We don't want enemies reading the comments to get insight into our plans.
Hey guys, just an announcement. Please don't attack Temple or any Clemson territories today. We have agreed to a non-agression pact with them today, so we can focus all of our efforts on OSU.
They most likely won't. Teams have passed them in users and total stars recently (including us). They also aren't organized at all and can't coordinate their moves.
Recent Comments
I don't think there are too many variables.
Let's assume Michigan finishes 11-1 in the regular season. 12-0 there's nothing to worry about, 10-2 and there's no hope.
IF the loss loss is to someone besides OSU or PSU, then we'd still win the division (unless Maryland beats us and runs the table or also finishes 11-1; let's assume that's not happening).
IF the loss is to OSU, then we need PSU to beat OSU AND for PSU to finish 11-1. Ideally OSU loses another game elsewhere. If OSU loses 2 games, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with PSU. If OSU only lost to PSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the loss is to PSU, then we need OSU to beat PSU AND for OSU to finish 11-1. Ideally PSU loses another game elsewhere. If PSU has 2 losses, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with OSU. If PSU only lost to OSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the latter two scenarios result in a 3-way tiebreaker, then Michigan NEEDS Nebraska to finish with a better conference record than Wisconsin AND (Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota) to cumulatively have a better conference record than (Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa).
So in summary we really should be rooting FOR Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota and AGAINST Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa. Unfortunately needing Nebraska to outperform Wisconsin in conference play to win a 3-way tiebreaker means it's very very unlikely Michigan comes out on top in a 3-way tie.
Since OSU/PSU play each other before Michigan plays either opponent, then that result will dictate the importance of the Michigan/PSU and Michigan/OSU games. Basically Michigan NEEDS to beat the winner of OSU/PSU, otherwise winning the division is essentially impossible unless the OSU/PSU winner that also beats Michigan somehow loses two other conference games.
Based on the fact that the odds of Michigan winning a 3-way tiebreaker seem slim to none, there may be a chance where if OSU beats PSU, and PSU beats Michigan, then the OSU/Michigan game could occur when Michigan is effectively eliminated from East Division contention due to the 3-way tiebreaker. In that case we'd need to beat OSU still obviously, and hope the East representative loses in the B1GCG
Technically doesn't the CB on the Johnson play have inside, not outside, leverage on CJ before and initially during the play?
Seth's hot take about JJ calling plays works now!
Seth, I can’t believe you’ve only just discovered Seoul Street! That place is an absolute treasure. I spent two years in the apartments next door. Hope you and your family are doing well.
I was super confused when Brian was defending Nebraska’s onside kick against Northwestern saying NW got the ball on their 31.
Didnt realize that they attempted another onside, trick kick against North Dakota! Lol
I don't think Houstan missing his first 3 shots is a reason to decrease his minutes. Didn't he just go 0-fer in the first half against CSU and make 3 straight second half 3s to help turn that game?
Twill has been playing great in limited minutes recently and I agree he deserves more time. But, he is just not really an ideal 3. His 3pt%, while great, is on low volume and he just isn't the type of player that can get up 6-8 3PA in a game; he doesn't have the release for it and isn't the natural shooter that Houstan is.
I agree though. Give Twill more minutes by cutting Johns out of the rotation, and from there give more minutes to whichever two of Houstan, Twill, Diabate are most effective in the given game.
Thank you Seth for pointing out that Twill can take minutes from Johns. I've been so confused on why Webb keeps talking about reducing Houstan's minutes for Twill.
Twill is best suited at the 4 and Johns literally takes up 8-12 empty minutes per game at the 4. If we want Twill to play more minutes than simply eliminate Johns from the rotation and he'll approach 20 minutes.
Has felt extremely weird that this has been pitted as a Houstan vs Williams debate.
1. Jones + Collins 40
2. Brooks + Jones/Collins 40
3. Houstan 34, Twill 6
4. Diabate 26, Twill 14
5. Dickinson 36, Diabate 4
I think the implication is that Barrett will be on the field more given the manball opponent with Dax Hill playing a more traditional safety role. Thus, fewer snaps for Moore.
I watched the 2019 highlights a few days ago too.
We really were moving the ball with ease but just kept shooting our selves in the foot that entire first half.
Patterson tried to get the edge on back to back red zone designed runs instead of following his blocks and cutting upfield. Then on 3rd down he fumbles the snap.
We jump offsides on a punt, the next play OSU throws a bomb to get down to the goal line and they score.
We drive back down the field and DPJ drops a TD pass on 3rd and goal.
I’m confident we’ll have a game plan to move the ball well, there just can’t be execution errors like the above. Then the defense just needs to tread water and hope for the best.
Man, that 2pt conversion evidence seems pretty damning. Live I thought it might not have been a catch, but the broadcast was so terrible I didn’t even give it much of a second thought.
The only thing I’m thinking is that did those first handful of steps by the WR qualify as “completing the process” of the catch, and therefore the rule Seth quoted may not apply?
“If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass…” Maybe the refs were thinking that those first few steps completed the act of catching the pass and then he went to the ground.
It was the post game presser with Cade. He called it the LB, but it was actually the DB that was on Sainristil presnap that went to the flat, instead of dropping into zone where the slant was supposed to go I’m guessing is what the actual read is. Explicitly not a pre-snap read according to the guy that threw the ball, so
https://twitter.com/odellbretthamjr/status/1455204104771411981?s=21
That play where McNamara scrambled 20 yards is simply not a hold. MSU would’ve gotten called for holding on every play if it was called that way. You’re allowed to have your hand on the DL’s chest, which is what happened in on that play.
Complaining about holding is weak considering I remember plenty of plays where our DL got held that wasn’t called. MSU’s OL had a disastrous time blocking Hutchinson and Ojabo, it follows that you’d expect MSU to pick up more holding calls.
And yes, that’s DPI without a shadow a doubt. If you think intentionally running into a WRs chest isn’t DPI, then throw the flag for the other DB holding the hips of the WR and impeding his ability to catch the pass. Literally two instances of DPI on that play
McNamara stated in the post game presser that he was reading that LB jumping to the flat and that CJ was the right read on the slant route.
That play wasn’t a designed pick play and I’m not sure how you can give Cade a -2 for making the proper read and throwing the ball to an open WR that blatantly gets interfered with by two(!!!) DBs.
Sure, the second read was arguably more open, but are QBs really expected to ignore a proper 1st read and look for something better?
also, yeah it looked like a pass to Sainristill could’ve gone the distance. But watch that angle from the back. The safety is drifting towards the sideline and CJ has his man beat on the slant. If that LB doesn’t literally run into his chest, then CJ could easily be off to the races there as well.
It was kind of an awkward segment because it did really come across like he was bashing Cade even though he’d backtrack and say that he played a good game, but it wasn’t good enough when Webb would push back.
DG is looking it from the perspective of a football player, and I’m sure Cade and the coaches will agree when they watch tape, that a lot of plays were still left on the field that Cade can improve on.
But, like, this is a segment for casual fans, and not film study. Was just kind of odd that most of the plays Gardner chose were critiques and very few were some of the very clutch 3rd downs that Cade converted.
Re: the 4th and 3 pick play that McNamara threw to the “pick” guy.
According to space coyote and McNamara himself, that isn’t a designed pick play and you read it inside to outside. McNamara read the LB bite towards the flat, so the read necessitated the throw to CJ on the slant. Issue being CJ was clearly interfered with (the pick) and the refs are cowards.
Re: The first clip of Green after the charts.
"I cannot fathom a team that has been taken apart by mesh not running a zone that handles mesh on third and seven, but Green backs off to the goal line and the conversion here is even easier than Michigan's usual man coverage. Michigan's zone issues are all mental. This one gives up a wide open throw directly in front of the QBs face. "
Gray drops into almost an identical pattern on the bottom of the screen. Either both Gray and Green made the same error (possible) or this is a scheme that was drawn up.
Definitely in danger territory. If they managed to contain the outbreak at 9 people, then it seems like they'd be good to continue playing assuming that the population is around that 150-170 mark and that at least a couple of these 9 players won't test positive by the latter half of the week.
The worry would be the more players test positive as the week goes and they'd have a legitimate outbreak.
I think the assumption is that the positive players are still tested daily and count towards the test positivity rate. Otherwise it would be damn near impossible to reach that 5% threshold on a 7 day rolling average without a full-scale outbreak as you pointed out.
https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/football/the-big-ten-is-testing-football-players-for-covid-19-every-day-heres-how-it/collection_c53d6ad5-2bc0-5464-a034-a57e2ddd3811.html
The above reports that 170 tests are given daily. Assuming that's accurate (I haven't been able to verify) that would be about 1190 tests per week, meaning that a team would have to have 60 positives on a 7 day rolling period in order to surpass the 5% test positivity rate.
The other parameter is population positivity rate being no higher than 7.5%. Assuming a population of 170, then a team would have to average 13 positive people on a 7 day rolling period to surpass the 7.5% threshold.
Is that second comment what was referred to as "obvious homophobia" on twitter? That seems like a massive stretch to make such a serious accusation. Granted there may be other evidence or occurrences of WD making homophobic comments on this board, but I assume that would've been posted in place of those two comments as homophobia obviously deserves a swift banhammer.
But that second comment is clearly a joke about Lebron fans only having love for Lebron and nobody else (man or woman). I don't even see a world where that would be considered homophobic unless you a) make the borderline sexist assumption that all Lebron fans are male AND b) make the leap in logic that Lebron fans are lame because they "love" Lebron (homophobia) and not because they are unhealthily obsessed with him.
I just think accusing someone of needing to "reevaulate their obvious homophobia" is a bad look without providing any evidence.
He wasn’t advocating for that. Just stating the reality of the situation.
From my understanding it basically allows the offensive player to reset and get a fresh dribble against the mismatch.
What is your reddit name?
Test
Check the website again!
The stars are weighted. The stats on the leaderboard of the game page are not accurate because it just counts total stars. When in reality a 5 star player is about 32 times as powerful as a 1 star player.
Clemson's participation is doing fine. They are helping us. Trust me.
They have about 1000 star power total and we have about 4000 star power. Them fully coordinating with us every turn effectively gives us a 25% power increase. Clemson has been one of our best allies. They are a huge help.
Wow. What is going on with me. Let's try four the fourth time! This is the correct map.
Okay.. Take 3.
Still trying to figure out how to post pics in the OP.
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Daily Map
Looks like you will have to wait those 4 days to become a 3 star. You could get 500 karma overall on /r/cfb to level up to a 3 star quicker if you have the time. Otherwise, waiting 4 days will get you there.
Sorry, the images didn't post in the main thread. I guess the new mgoblog doesn't like imgur.
Bot flagging alert mentioned in the main post:
Follow the instructions detailed in the main post if you see this message!
Daily Map of Game:
The orders are referencing the territories to attack. Every team started the gaming owning their single home territory. Then as the game progresses enemy teams take over land and kill other teams. For example, Penn State is dead and Michigan owns the Penn State territory. Meaning that we want to "Defend Penn State".
If your order was to "Attack Cincinnati" that means we want you to attack the Cincinnati homeland that Ohio State currently owns. In order to do this you will want to look for the Cincinnati logo under the "Attack" column on the game page.
Hey guys. Since a new day has started you can clock in new actions. So be sure to revisit the michigancfbrisk.com website to get a new order and make another move today!!!
We are actually stronger than Nebraska now. They have had a massive downward trend in participation while we have continued to grow.
Thanks man. No worries.
Hey can you edit your post above so it doesn't share details of your order please! Sorry for being petty.
Also. Just a heads up guys. Please don't share order details in your comments. We don't want enemies reading the comments to get insight into our plans.
Sorry, I left it blank to write the body of the post first. I forgot to come back to it and think of something relatively clever. My bad.
Take a look at the results for Wisconsin and Virginia Tech. We won those on prayers.
Fill out the form and message /u/bakonydraco on reddit telling him you're a real person.
Nebraska, Chaos, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Stanford, and Wisconsin are all enemies in the opposing alliance.
Everytime I try to upload a picture here from imgur it doesn't work. Not sure what I'm doing wrong.
Clemson isn't a problem though. Ohio State is the problem.
Hey guys, just an announcement. Please don't attack Temple or any Clemson territories today. We have agreed to a non-agression pact with them today, so we can focus all of our efforts on OSU.
Did you follow the instructions on the game page and message /u/bakonydraco on reddit?
They most likely won't. Teams have passed them in users and total stars recently (including us). They also aren't organized at all and can't coordinate their moves.
For some reason I am struggling to embed the images of the map.
https://imgur.com/a/2moIV4c
Regardless a zoomed in picture of the northeast can be seen at the link above.