Our early departure basketball players - how it work out for them?
Given that the future of some of our players (HD, Kobe, Jett in particular) will be often discussed around here (should he stay? should he go?) what is the boards reflection on past players that departed the team early for the NBA?
In general, it would seem that the decision to jump into the draft has usually been the correct one. Perhaps the only player that I can think of that maybe should have stayed is Moussa. He hasn't yet stuck in the NBA but maybe financially he is better off as (correct me if I am wrong) there some restrictions on NIL for foreign college players.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
OT: There also have been some departures from Michigan in recent years who’ve performed reasonably well at other schools: David DeJulius at Cincinnati, Colin Castleton at Florida, Frankie Collins at Arizona State, Cole Bajema at Washington and Brandon Johns, Jr. at VCU have played better than they did while at Michigan. Zeb Jackson has been a reserve at VCU this season, but averaging close to 18 minutes and 5.5 points a game.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
I think this past season there were some mistakes made with Frankie Collins and Brandon Johns Jr. Both of those guys could have been starters this year.
But the rest of those guys made the right decision to transfer given the roster at Michigan at the time. Colin Castleton has shown to be a very good starter that would have been buried behind Hunter Dickinson his whole career if he stayed. David DeJulius is playing in his COVID 5th year--did you expect him to ride the pine at Michigan as a junior and senior? Bajema and Jackson were not going to be starters here or see significant minutes. And most of these guys ended up at programs where they never played in an NCAA Tournament.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
This list is extremely misleading. DDJ is a 6th year covid player having his first year you could remotely describe as good after being not great in a worse league for three years. Castleton puts up solid stats on a bad team but hasn't been a difference maker at all. Bajema went home during Covid and has been truly awful until this year when he could kindly be described as playable. Brandon Johns and Zeb both transferred down levels making "played better" an extremely misleading statement and its not even really true. Zeb still can't start and Johns had the worst 3 pt shooting year of his career and is only hitting 2 pointers like he did while at Michigan despite playing a lower level of competition. Not a single one of those players really changes the trajectory of this team outside of Johns just because having a body at the 4 that wasn't williams or Tschetter would have been helpful.
March 10th, 2023 at 10:32 PM ^
I should've been clearer. My point wasn't to say that any of them would've benefitted from staying at Michigan -- just that they benefitted from moving on from Michigan to other schools. Similarly, those athletes who've left Michigan for professional opportunities apparently made those decisions because they all thought that they could benefit from the move, regardless of what the outcome has been for them.
If Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard all decided to leave Michigan for professional opportunities, I'd hope that they'd all get good advice about their options.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
I am going to take an outlier case to point out a benefit of staying that is frequently ignored. Aidan Hutchinson. Yes, he was drafted second in the NFL draft. He'll play NFL football for 5-10 years.
After that, for the rest of his life, he will be big man on campus any time he comes back to Ann Arbor. He will get to talk about his senior season over and over and over again with the former players he reunites with. If he chooses to make money off it, he can do local advertising as well.
He is an outlier case as he went #2 in the draft and has an NFL father so money wasn't an issue, but I seriously doubt he would trade any pile of NFL money for his senior season.
Later in life, players get significant benefits from staying in school long enough to be a star that doesn't come up in these discussions.
It is the player's choice, and they need to do what is best for them.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Trey Burke is another guy who will forever be a hero in A2. He mulled going pro after a decent FR year - I remember thinking at the time "what about Darius Morris leaving before he was ready (Morris was a SOPH but clearly not ready)?"
Thankfully the guy reconsidered, won a Wooden Award, buried that long 3 to tie Kansas, led us to the Finals. The guy made millions more than if he had gone pro.
After the disappointment of this year, I'm going to be foolishly optimistic that the blah ending to this year will motivate most guys to return. Unlike Caleb and Moussa, Jace didn't come in as a project lottery pick to start the year.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
The big question is; can the guys in the basketball locker room rally themselves to hang in there and make the 2023-24 season a huge success? As did the football team in early 2021. Jim Harbaugh himself also had to make big decisions regarding some of his assistants but as we see, this was a huge turning point in the football program. I hope Juwan, his assistants and his roster of players can do something similar. For them, who is committed and it's an open question.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Yes. Will be an interesting next few weeks. Can see a perfect scenario where Hunter, Jett and Kobe come back, McDaniel makes the leap, and we add a 4 in the transfer portal and make a run.
Also can see a scenario where Hunter, Jett and Kobe leave and we start all over again.
Aidan Hutchinson NEEDED to come back to become the #2 pick in the draft, or even a first or second round pick. What are you talking about? He had a very subpart 2020, hurt his foot, and was nowhere near a Day 1 or 2 pick after his first few years.
Football is a different sport, too, when it comes to the draft. NFL players are expected to physically develop over time. Age doesn't matter as much because careers are shorter for most picks, no matter what.
For basketball, it's been 20-plus years of teams drafting off of potential as much as or more than performance.
Sub-par in 2020? Dude played like a game and a half. I'm not disagreeing with your overall point, just saying 2020 can't be judged.
Coming back to play another season of football is different than basketball. Michigan Football means so much more.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
You never ever know how guys games will translate. See Franz Wagner as an example.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
As fans, you always want to guy to err on the side of staying to help the team, but don't forget a lot of these guys who have jumped right from HS to NBA if the league/players union had still allowed that.
The fact that both guys from last year are getting some playing time shows they might make it.
Ever since the Grant Hill injury back in the late 1990s when he got hurt playing in his final games for the Pistons, he was never the same even though the Magic paid him zillions. One serious injury and your stock may drop forever.
GRIII definitely lost some money not getting his power game up to snuff had he stayed as a junior.
The guys who really lost a chance for more cash were Manny Harris and Darius Morris, but that was early JB.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
From a financial standpoint it likely all made sense to them. I don't think Houstan or Diabate are going to stick around in the NBA for a long time but both got paid high 2nd-round money and that's worth it. Both should have stayed IMO because another year of physical development likely helps them grow into better players. That's the thing about the NBA - it's a league full of grown men who are playing for millions of dollars and aren't remotely inclined to help someone who might take their job get better. Sure they'll be teammates but you follow these stars and they're all training like demons and the front offices are focused on maximizing performance while minimizing cost. Both Houstan and Diabate have bounced up-and-down the main and G-league teams all year and I can't imagine that's great for your growth as a player, especially young guys.
Franz left exactly when he should and is making millions. If Jett is still projected as a lottery-ish pick then he might as well go; that's life-changing money and time to develop in the NBA and maybe a change of scenery will be good for him.
I don't begrudge guys leaving even if, from a basketball perspective, it may not be optimal. If Bufkin can get a 1st-round promise then why not jump? Maybe he can play himself into the lottery next year but it's just as likely that he gets hurt or struggles and doesn't get the NBA call. I was wrong about Jordan Poole leaving too early so there's that.
From a practical sense it feels like Dickinson and Bufkin should stick around - Dickinson because the NIL money is going to be as good as what he'd get overseas/in the G league most likely and Bufkin because I do believe he can play himself into a lottery selection versus the 20s he's projected right now. Jett I'm less sure about; all year the analysis on him as been he is a good offensive player but needs to get better on defense and rebounding. If he focuses on the latter two that would be great and a huge help next year but barring that he'd likely just become an even more extreme version of that player - more of a shooter, less of a defender and rebounder - and NBA teams will likely pick more holes in his game and he'd drop.
So if everyone leaves I wish them luck and assume that's the best decision in their eyes.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
People are going to make a lot of comparisons between Poole and Bufkin that I think aren't accurate. One thing Poole had that Bufkin doesn't and that you need to succeed is irrational confidence. He would pull up from anywhere, take guys off the dribble, try to make the highlight pass. In college when he was younger that made him an inconsistent player but its what makes him great in the NBA.
Bufkin is an extremely tentative player offensively. He rarely is driving the offense or hunting his own shot and can too easily just be completely taken out of games. If I'm an NBA team I need to see Bufkin be much more assertive or a much better shooter/defender before I take him in the first round. But if he gets that grade more power to him.
Yeah, Poole was a worse defender than Bufkin is now but like you said he had that one defining characteristic - long-range shooting - that was enough for the NBA. And even then, he wasn't the player we see today those first 2 years playing for one of the best teams in the league. It took time and a fair bit of luck - I continue to believe that had Nik Stauskas not gone to the tire fire that was the Kings he'd have had a nice NBA career.
Bufkin has made big strides all year but, yeah, he's definitely still growing into himself a bit. My guess is some NBA GMs will see that as opportunity to mold a guy into a rotational player or more, but you might not want to spend a 1st round pick on a guy who is so young and might only become a good player toward the end of his rookie deal. So we'll see.
I will hand it to Beilein that he found the great talent..... guys like Austin Davis, Poole, Robinson, but then should say he left them on bench way too long.
Kobe reminds mom of Tim Hardaway, Jr., more than Poole. Guys with ability to shoot well from mid-range and can drive but don't drive as much as they should.
Hopefully, Kobe takes another leap that THJ didn't when he was here.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
If a guy gets drafted its pretty much exclusively the right decision for them to go. There isn't a single player in the world who isn't going to see their game improve more focusing 100% on basketball instead of balancing school and only being allowed to be coached 20 hours a week. The level of play in the G league is still a massive step above college in terms of competition and if you got drafted they are going to be giving you G league minutes.
The only situation it might be better is for younger guys who are late first potential second round picks for whom being "the guy" next year could make them lottery picks. This is where Kobe and potentially Jett land so its possible one of them comes back.
And even beyond that there are a million reasons it can be the right decision even if they wind up in europe or elsewhere. Maybe they just hate school, maybe they aren't meshing with the coaching staff, maybe they need a salary for financial reasons. The idea that we as fans can determine whether it was the right decision is laughable.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
i'll never fault someone for going for the opportunity to earn life changing money
March 10th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
I guess my only question on the stay or go thing, and we dealt with it under Beilein as well, is how in the hell does Izzo and several of these other coaches get these kids to stay for 3-4 years when they were 5 stars out of high school? Hell, Roy Williams was able to do it at Carolina as well. I know NIL may help with that some going forward but damn it was always frustrating when a DJ Wilson would go pro after one good year or tournament run and then other 5 stars would stick around at other schools. If we would have had several players back one more year at times, Beilein would definitely have had a championship along the way. You take this year, if Diabate was here, the team would’ve won several more games. If we keep Kobe, Jett and Hunter next year we win a lot more games.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
I would not be surprised at all to find out that Magic Johnson, Steve Smith, and Draymond Green are paying Sparties to stay an extra year with Izzo. Being Spartans is a huge part of their identity and they want MSU to be successful because that reflects well back onto them.
This is going to be an unpopular answer but its partly because its more fun to play basketball at MSU than it is at Michigan. Basketball is the #1 sport for that fanbase, Breslin is consistently full and loud, the student section is actually designed to give a home court advantage and maximize the atmosphere, the basketball players are more popular on campus. This is true at a place like UNC or Kansas.
Michigan basketball is frankly an afterthought, Crisler is a joke but in terms of layout/structure and atmosphere and the fanbase will always trade football success for basketball success.
I wouldn't think it's the fan base that keeps them from leaving. It's really fun to play for Duke and UK, too, because those are basketball Meccas. Their players leave because they are draft-able, while Izzo seems to stunt his own players' growth/do less with more highly rated guys.
Michigan fans are a joke, though. Watching them on TV badly dance at timeout breaks or go completely silent at the first sight of the team struggling...that does make it less exciting from an atmosphere standpoint.
Outside of Joshua Langford, in the last decade, what 5-star from MSU has stuck around for more than 2 seasons?
March 10th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
My personal opinion?
Kobe will find a spot. He has a good combo of creating his own shots + ability to hit tough shots + defense, so someone in the NBA will be able to use him.
Jett--I dunno. He has elite shooting potential, but his defense is terrible and his lack of effort, especially with his dad as the coach, is a real red flag to me. Jace always came in and busted his butt even though he doesn't have nearly the talent of his younger brother.
Generally the people who succeed in the NBA are the ones willing to work their butts off. I haven't seen that yet from Jett.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
A factor in these decisions is whether the kid has any interest in being at a college or in getting a degree. If there is zero interest in school, they may as well leave and play in G-League or overseas. If there is interest in a degree, then NIL may make it more sensible to stay.
It's only a factor but it can be the difference in staying an extra year or leaving too early.
Another factor is the portal. HD is not a NBA prospect but would he look to portal to find a different situation at the NCAA level?
March 10th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
If Kobe and Jett get first round grades, I can’t see either sticking around. Hunter is a different story since as everyone has pointed out - the NIL $$$ is more than he’ll probably make elsewhere.
But, Michigan probably need one or both to come back to be any good next year unless they strike portal gold.
I mean what’s the rotation look like if Jett and Kobe leave and Hunter stays?
What’s it like if all three leave?
I do not get all the Jett hate here... His defense and rebounding was lacking beyond question. It does hurt to see lack of effort which there was. Name one freshmen with better NBA potential in the last 20 years of Michigan basketball? I can't name one better. I think playing for dad hurt his willingness to work and I think Juwann roster mismanagement cost him his ability to show young Jett the bench when he didn't perform up to standards effort wise. He is the most NBA talented guy on the roster with Kobe behind and I wouldn't call it close behind. As far as ability to cash in Jett needs to go IMO however its not like he is hurting for money or has a family he has to take care of etc. That is one reason we possibly see him back. Kobe should come back and strive for that lottery or top 20 pick. I do not see him sliding out of the first round unless he falls off a cliff next season but he does have the potential to increase his draftability greatly with a great year.
I do not get all the Jett hate here... His defense and rebounding was lacking beyond question. It does hurt to see lack of effort which there was.
Look closely. You answered your own question.
I'm not sure we're at the level of *hate* with most commenters, but Jett's lack of effort was disappointing at times. Juwan's apparent inability to perceive this (or unwillingness to acknowledge it) was IMO one of several bad chemistry issues this year.
The Jett angst is about his NBA potential that hasn't translated into making Michigan a substantially better team, as a guy with NBA potential has the ability to do.
Jett's lack of defense and rebounding are infuriating, and that's where a lot of the "hate" comes from. He had the potential to be better and he seemingly never did plus his offensive efficiency took a nosedive once he became an extreme perimeter player. Caleb Houstan, for example, had a better offensive efficiency in conference compared to Jett this year and was a better defender and rebounder and nobody thought he was particularly "good" as a freshman. He's been a black hole offensively for most of the year and so that's been jarring to watch because usually even limited defenders just naturally get better with more cycles in the college game. I don't necessarily blame him - I do think playing for your dad can be weird and disjointed.
As for NBA potential as a freshman...Franz had a far more complete freshman year than Jett and it's not even close. Trey Bruke was debatably as good a freshman and had a real decision to make about coming back as a sophomore. Jett was fine this year but people are overreacting to him a bit because he had some offensive explosions.
Franz Wagner was a better prospect than Jett. Moe was as good a prospect as Jett. Jett is about even with Nik, but Nik was a better shooter.
I say that as a huge Jett fan, but he's got a long ways to grow as a player if he's to be anything more than a streaky shooter. Jett's a very good shooter, but criticism of his game is highly warranted by anyone who 1) loves his game and wants him to succeed and 2) more importantly, anyone who has watched the team play with him in the game.
Sadly, when he was out the two games from his ankle injury, the team played more as a team.
If he is missing shots, he isn't doing anything else to impact the game. In the Rutgers' game, there were a half dozen moments where you see Jett bail rather than make an effort play. One was the final nail in the coffin moment, where he doesn't go in for a rebound on the missed FT, where the two bigs boxed out there guys but Jett left the shooter clean to go get his own miss. Yeah, I blame Jett on that one. He also nearly let his own best defensive play end up for naught, when he forced a bad baseline shot that careened off the rim and right back towards Jett. Only he almost lost the rebound because he played D and then started to run the court before anyone had the damn rebound. He's always expecting someone else to go and get the ball.
He will shoot his shot and then bail to defense rather than follow up/crash the boards. There's a reason he averages less than 3 RPG despite being 6'8" and playing heavy minutes.
He doesn't pass the ball well consistently, and he openly looks disinterested or bemused by any criticism he gets on the court from Hunter. Hunter can be an ass and a bonehead, but he wants to win and does try to show leadership. Jett needs to get over being both Juwan's kid and Juwan's prodigy progeny.
And I say that as a huge fan of his. He's got the highest ceiling of the current team yet he's also nowhere near the kind of on-court leader as either Kobe and Hunter.
NLI has completely changed this idea of fringe players on whether or not they should stay or go
No one cares about defense in the NBA until the postseason - Jett has way more upside offensive ability than anyone - although I think he should return, I would be surprised if he did. I am hoping that NLI money keeps the rest of the talent here.
What ever happens, one thing that might need to be addressed is the culture of the team/progarm. I am wondering if we are not seeing a similar issue that affected the football team back in 2020. Of course, it is wild speculation on my part.