Our early departure basketball players - how it work out for them?
Given that the future of some of our players (HD, Kobe, Jett in particular) will be often discussed around here (should he stay? should he go?) what is the boards reflection on past players that departed the team early for the NBA?
In general, it would seem that the decision to jump into the draft has usually been the correct one. Perhaps the only player that I can think of that maybe should have stayed is Moussa. He hasn't yet stuck in the NBA but maybe financially he is better off as (correct me if I am wrong) there some restrictions on NIL for foreign college players.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
He’s getting NBA money and can work on his game full time. If he can’t make it stick with those two things happening, it wasn’t meant to be.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
This is the only correct response. We get attached to players because we’re connected to the team and as fans we tend to overlook the difficult considerations of going pro. Whether basketball or football, these kids have worked extremely hard for nearly their whole lives with one goal in mind: play their sport at the highest level. We may argue as fans that underdeveloped players should stay to better themselves or their team, but I’ll never fault an athlete for taking their chance at fulfilling a lifelong dream.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Well said, especially "these kids have worked extremely hard for nearly their whole lives..." No doubt to achieve the "highest level" in their sport. In my sport, my aspirations where the Olympic Trials (in distance running). It wasn't about the money back then but back then, there were pro track runners. There was almost no prize money, that would come a few years later.
I won't fault any of the 2022-23 Men's Basketball players from leaving Michigan to pursuit there their dreams. It's up to them to see where reality lies.
The fact that neither Houstan and Diabate are not doing well in the NBA/G league is not necessarily an indication that they should have stayed in college. It might very well mean that they made the right choice.
Since they have had a year to focus totally on developing their basketball skills and they still haven't made a big jump it's likely that they would have developed even less if they had stayed in college. Everyone says (correctly) that the NBA drafted them for their potential. If the NBA had gotten a chance to look at a minimal improvement after the 2nd year at Michigan it seems very possible that the NBA may have revised their estimate of potential downward. If so, they would have gotten worse offers. Maybe even none.
By coming out last year they assured that they will make millions of dollars even if they never make it in the NBA.
This is exactly correct. Better to go get paid while you can sell potential.
To your point, if you stay in college and don't develop rapidly, that window closes.
Diabate was raised by a single parent in a cramped Paris highrise apartment. He took a risk coming here for high school, professional basketball his goal. He's making half a million dollars this year, and will make millions of dollars career-long. It's pretty silly to question this, or his choice. Great guy, too, from all reports.
March 11th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
Uh...no they didnt. 2 way contracts pay half the league minimum and arent guaranteed. If Diabate is waived at the end of the year, he will not even be at $1M gross for 2 years, much less plural millions net.
It may shake out that way when its all said and done, but there are no assurances to make millions unless you're picked in the first round. On top of that, because a first round pick involves guaranteed financial outlay, there is more incentive for a team to invest developmentally in that guy than in a guy you can cut at any time if it isn't working out.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
He'll still make a very good living playing overseas, if he doesn't make a career in the NBA
Bingo - some of these guys are making more in 1 contract than most of us will see in a life or at least 20 years, and can set up their family for generational wealth if they get to the 2nd contract.
The other 1st contract and out guys get to enjoy life as a late teenager or young 20s year old, travel, enjoy "lady friends" galore (or whatever they are into), and still have a good amount of bucks. Go play in Europe for a while and enjoy a different way of life than USA rat race. If they don't go Adrian Peterson they can set themselves up for 10-15 years easy post a 3-4 year career even. Then use that celebrity and UM connections to get most any cushy job they like.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
Obvious title edit: How did it work out for them?
March 10th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
I think I'd argue thus far that Caleb's decision to enter the draft was right up there with Moussa's.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
You could argue that he struck while the iron was relatively hot (with his 5-star HS status, which hadn't yet been significantly diluted by his on-court performance in college). Good for him.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Agreed. Caleb is not "good" in the NBA, but he's played 38 games this year, averages 16mpg, and 4ppg. Given how ineffective he was for most of his time at Michigan, I'd say that's a huge accomplishment. Also averaging about 38% on threes on 2.5 attempts a game, go figure.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
I have two theories on Houstan's shooting. Most of his threes have been from the corner so I think just the amount of repetition and practice has probably helped with his accuracy from there. The other is that he is probably playing in garbage time or with other players drawing attention like Banchero and Wagner that is leading to cleaner looks than he may even gotten in college last year.
The issue with Houstan to me is will he ever be a plus defender in the pros? Given his prep rating, I was expecting him to be a better athlete than he showed last year at Michigan. He has the size to do it, but I didn't see it athletically last year.
Caleb was under pressure here to be the biggest, bestest shooter recruited in the internet scouting craze era. Michigan fans expected him to be a finished product as a 5-star, because we rarely get 5-star players.
Now, he gets to be developed while he gets paid, and he gets to play in a league where defense is not something that's required, unlike the Big Ten.
If he'd have come back, I'd expected him to make the same kind of leap that Kobe did this year. Kobe was a kid in the Top 50, so it is not a surprise that he's growing with coaching, as many of the guys who came here within his range have.
There are very few NBA rookies who go to the League and contribute immediately outside of those guys drafted in the lottery on perennially-Lottery teams. Look at the team he's on...a team made up of a lot of developmental dudes and then Paolo and Franz as the most polished.
Ignas was the biggest flop, followed probably by one of my favorites, Nik. Stauskas at least got a great first contract. Iggy may have developed more here and had a better chance to stick around the League...but that's pretty unquantifiable.
"... he gets to play in a league where defense is not something that's required ..."
Ask Duncan Robinson how that has worked out lately. (He did get a big contract earlier.)
March 10th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
This isn’t anything against Juwan but it is striking to think about how many of Beilein’s guys who left did so at the exact right time for their stock. Guys like Stauskas, Trey Burke, even McGary (who faced extenuating circumstances but nonetheless seems to have worked out alright for him) may not have exactly ripped the league apart but made their money and got on with things.
We can argue over whether guys like JP or LeVert left too early/late but ultimately it worked out for them in the end. I think junior Poole might have been a lottery pick, but he also just signed a $90m extension so that is an entirely moot point
Of Juwan’s guys to this point (Franz, half of Livers career, Houstan and Diabate) I’d say they’re 2/4 as far as leaving when they should have
Ultimately it’s a little disheartening to see the fact that a lot of UM dudes have completely flamed out in the league, but a lot of our guys left exactly when they should have. I didn’t even mention Moe and DJ, who both made the exact right decision in moving on when they did. That being said, I’m sold on the idea of Jett/Kobe being NBA players but it gets late really early in the NBA for a lot of guys (shout out Johnny Davis) and I would hate to see them take off just to play in Fort Wayne for a large portion of their career. But then again, that’s the same thing I said about Poole 🤷♂️
March 10th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
I tend to disagree. Franz Wagner stayed an extra year and turned into a lottery pick. I think Houstan and Diabate were two players whose stock was high enough that it might have been a risk to return to school based on how they played their freshman year. Do you really believe Houstan or Diabate would have ended up a 1st round pick? Maybe Diabate, but I don't think that was ever going to happen for Houstan. Livers had already spent 4 years at Michigan and not sure if playing a 5th COVID year would have been a benefit for him especially considering his past injury issues.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Seconded. Diabete's decision is the only one of the four I find interesting.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
I am going to sound like a broken record, but now that we have NIL, my argument will always be to stay and develop your body and your craft.
The human athletic peak is approximately 26/27 years of age. If you go too early you are taking on a biological handicap you might not be able to overcome.
It might be your lifelong dream to compete at the highest level, but if you go before your body develops, you aren't even close to your personal "highest level."
March 10th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
What does a UM basketball player get via NIL? Moussa is making 500K a year and Houstan is making 2 million per year.
I'm guessing Houstan wouldn't be making anything close to 2 million in NIL money at UM. 500K might not to be to far off what a top player can get for NIL at UM, but I'm just guessing.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
This is wrong on so many levels. The only reason to stay for NIL in basketball is if you have doubts about an NBA future like Hunter Dickinson. If you stay in college that long, you will cost yourself earnings in the prime of your NBA career by delaying the time to your second contract and your prime earning years. The NBA has a rookie scale in place so if you are draftable, you are best off starting as soon as you can.
I don't know where this myth started that the only and best place to develop your game and body was in college. Maybe that was true 30 years ago when the G League and other international opportunities were not as available, but it definitely isn't true now. The pros work at their craft year round without having to deal with school and NCAA rules and restrictions. Young players can get playing time against higher competition in the G League.
I regret that I have only one upvote to give you. Once the NBA put in a rookie cap about 30 years ago, even the academic argument about development -- which really should favor the NBA anyway -- became moot.
Only first rounders get guaranteed money. Second round picks are often for minimum and non-guaranteed, so if a dude doesn't make the pro team and plays in the minors, well...NIL may have made him more and he may have had more PT and media coverage to get a better chance at 1st round.
The NBA minimum for a rookie this year is $1 million. You get around half of that if you’re on a 2-way, and you get service time, which bumps the following year up to $1.8 million if you make an NBA roster. That’s the fate of guys picked after 40, plus another handful of UDFAs (except for the guys who are already pros in Europe — they stay over the for another year or two). Guys picked earlier in the second round, like Houstan, sign deals guaranteed for $3-6 million. Even the 2-way deals outpace NIL, and earlier second rounders blow it out of the water.
No doubt, and that is why it is important to make an informed decision and dovetails with my original point that Michigan players for the most part have been making the right decisions over the decade or at least since the beginning of the Beilein era.
High second round picks these days are getting guaranteed contracts as well. Caleb Houstan signed a 4-year, $8 million guaranteed contract. Leaving for the NBA as a high 2nd round pick last year was the right decision for him unless you think he was going to be a lottery pick this year (which I don't).
Diabate, on the other hand, got a two-way contract with the Clippers so his future is a bit more tenuous. And large NIL deals are not a given for everyone. I doubt Diabate would have earned the type of NIL that someone like Dickinson or Oscar Tshiebwe for Kentucky is earning as he was not a big name or All-Conference type player.
I am sort of talking myself into the theory that the NBA sees college basketball as a financial competitor.
We just always seem to ignore the "have to go to classes and remain academically eligible" part of college sports. Man, these kids have to work harder in college, and get less time to focus on developing their game.
I know, the NBA is arduous in its own way, with a much longer schedule and crazy travel. But still, if you don't like school, and don't need/care about getting a degree, the academic requirements of college are a giant pain in the ass.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Alternatively, a guy could come back and see his stock sink, causing them to miss out on playing in the NBA at all. NBA teams are all about "upside" in the draft, so they often want the youngest guys with the highest potential. Being a mediocre freshman with the right athletic traits & potential skill abilities that hasn't quite put it together yet is a lot more valuable than a mediocre sophomore/junior who is now a couple years older and still hasn't shown polish. More than in any other major sports league, an NBA prospect has to strike while the iron is still hot.
Take Emoni Bates as an example. If he had been allowed to enter the draft straight out of high school, he would have been a lottery pick. Instead, he's now debatable as a draft pick at all. For many guys, if they have NBA interest, it makes sense to go while it's still there.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Paul Davis’ stock dropped every year.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
That is the way of the izzo (see also Kelvin Torbert, Marcus Taylor, Deyonta Davis, etc...).
March 10th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
It's hard to fault any player for leaving. Playing professionally is a dream for these guys and college is only a pitstop along that path. Youth is a huge premium in the NBA's eyes and the players aren't naive to this when making their decision.
I agree but man the product of both the nba and college game has suffered immensely by the way things are now. I miss the days when’s guy like Glen rice stayed for 4 years. Completely ready to go pro and compete right away after 4 years and college basketball was on another level to todays game. Probably why nobody will ever beat glens tourney record for points
March 10th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
There is some nuance here. It's not that the decision to leave early for the NBA Draft has been the correct one. I think it more has been that Michigan players over the last decade or so (Beilein era and Howard so far) have usually made the right decision on when to turn pro and leave early. Most of the players timed their entry correct to cash in on their stock. I think maybe Glenn Robinson III could have been a 1st rounder if he stayed another year, but I understand why he left at that time. But there are several players like Trey Burke and both Wagners who stayed an extra year, and it paid off for them.
The jury is still out on player decisions under Juwan, but I think most have made the right decisions so far. Franz Wagner used the extra year to turn into a lottery pick. I think the jury is still out on Houstan and Diabate, but I am not sure an extra year turns them into 1st round picks especially with how weak last year's draft was.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Moussa and Houstan both got drafted and both have played in several NBA games. I assume they're both bouncing back and forth to the G-League for development. I'd say it worked out for them.
Overall, I don't think you can criticize any early departures. McGary and Iggy are the two that pop out to me (bc they aren't in the NBA anymore), but if I recall they were both older players for their classes, so leaving made sense. Poole obviously blew up. Hardaway and Levert have been consistent rotation players or starters. DJ, Burke, and Stauskas have all hung around on NBA and G-League rosters. GRIII had a couple contracts and hit his ceiling. I can't remember if any of these guys played their eligibility out, but the Wagners are doing well, Livers is playing rotation mins, and D-Mo hung around for a few years.
Out of all those names, I don't know who would've benefitted significantly by staying. It seems every year the NBA cares less and less about college production. It's all about measurables, perceived ceiling, age, and so forth. They don't care that Edey or Luka Garza are the best players in college basketball heading into a draft. They'd rather take the 9th man in Kentucky's rotation who has a long wingspan and a crazy vertical.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
And McGary was about to be suspended for the next year, so he really had no other option than to go to the draft.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
Use the same method we did with Corum, Johnson, etc and pay up to get them to stay one more season. Everyone complaining about Juwan should be more than happy to pay these guys and get them to stay if it means better chance of success next season.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
I think the "pay up and they'll stay" is way different for football than basketball. Jordan Poole just signed a $128M contract and that's not all that unusual for NBA players. There are like 5 non-QB NFL players to sign deals that big, and none are running backs. For Corum, a million dollars to come back for 2023 is a much more material portion of his potential career earnings, compared to a similar amount for first round NBA players like Jett and Kobe.
I think the money worked for Dickinson because he realized his NBA earning potential was limited last year.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
True, but Poole most probably would've signed a similar contract much earlier in his NBA career had he stayed a year AND very likely made more at Michigan, had NIL been in place, than in his first year of G League servitude.
He was drafted in the first round, the fact that he played in the G league didn't impact his salary at all.
On top of that he played a ton in the G league and got to work on his game constantly in a way you just can't in college. Its not at all clear he would have made the same jumps in his game chafing against working within Beilein's system in college as opposed to getting to work on his game in the G league where the focus is on player development over winning individual games.
Another example of that is a guy like Duncan Robinson. The focus of the G league being on development means a guy like Robinson was getting hard defensive assignment and shooting out of sets he would never shoot out of in college games where a coaches job is dependent on winning not individual player development.
No, he wouldn't. He signed his big contract at the end of his rookie deal. Staying here would have delayed his second contract. Geezus.
No way does Poole sign up for current contract $, with an extra year of college coaching and training.
The Warriors took on a project and molded his game into his current value. It took three years to get him to the precieved potential he is at now.
You don't get NBA level work and training in college.
Your assuming Bufkin or Howard will get 100mil dollar contracts as rookies? Zero percent chance. I just want to see the same effort put in to retain these guys. Whether it works or not is irrelevent
We cant get people to show up at the arena but we are expecting to compete with NBA money. Yeah we are between a rock and a hard place.
Problem is if there are 60 players drafted why the hell do we have 2-3 of them in a season? Its just strange that a team with these results is getting 3-5% of the players in the draft. Recruit behemoth centers, just shooters (and use them unlike what we did with Baker) and undersized point guards. We need to have more seniors on senior day than we have players in the NBA draft.
NBA drafts on potential and it ruins the college game. Unless a player is phenomenal he isn't going to impact the college game that much in 1 year. The NBA drafts guys like Houstan and Diabate who didn't do anything significant in college and they're mediocre at best in the NBA for a time or they are out of the league. A few guys like Poole develop and it is great for them. Meanwhile those guys could have been legends in college and drawn all sorts of fans into basketball. Instead you get crappy basketball or good basketball with lower tier mature players.
I'm on a Pistons Reddit and every other conversation is how their players are going to be great in a few years once they develop. Develop the players in college and start paying them once they are actually good!
The thing I don't understand is the NBA's decision to have a bunch of underdeveloped players rather than saavy veterans. Is it all gambling? This veteran ranks a 70, but this rookie has a 75% chance of ranking 100. So the rookie is more valued even though it might take him 3 years to develop? Is that because only superstars win in the NBA?
I dont fault the players but these NBA execs on the other hand. If a kid cant make 3rd team in his conference (DJ Wilson) why do you need him next season? There is a yearly draft so eff sakes. Sometimes players really develop with the team dynamic they have in college. Contrary to popular belief (and youtube videos) training is more than just jacking up shots and getting to the rim in single player drills. Also building your brand is huge these days.
This being said I wouldnt pass up $1mill plus either. I just really dont understand Diabate he is no different than any other big player in big ten that cant hit a jumper. What did the NBA see in him that several players dont have.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
Every situation is different.
And it's difficult to know in hindsight.
I think it comes down to whether the player thinks another year in college will substantially improve their draft position.
If not, it makes no sense to stay.
I could see both Jett and Kobe playing their way in to top 10 picks. If Jett could show more consistency and something other than scoring, he'd be a top 10 pick. If Kobe keeps doing what he's doing but shows a higher level of play, he'd be a top 10 pick.
I see sophomore Kobe as being like freshman Trey Burke. A top 15-25 pick who could play himself in to a top 10 pick.
Then, the question is how much of a financial difference there is between an extra year in the NBA as a 25th pick vs starting off a year later as the 10th pick.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
How concerned should we be about TWill and Tschetter jumping to the league this offseason?
March 10th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Can we PLEASE get TWill to jump to the league this offseason? Any league will do. The MAC is a better league for him. I've been watching M basketball for decades and can hardly remember a player that brings less to the table, and logs this many minutes.
Brandon Johns would like a word.
I find it funny that people though he was good because he floundered around in a couple NCAA games and got some very friendly whistles.