OT - Which P5 Coach Gets Canned First This Season?
Quite a few coaches are coming into this season on the hot seat and in dire need of big seasons in order to save their jobs. Who all do you think get canned first?
My guess is Sumlin. He pretty much caught lightning in a bottle with Manziel, and his teams have proceeded to fall apart in the second half of just about every season ever since he left.
I think Kelly is safe for another season minus a drastic implosion both on and off the field, because he's one year into a big extension and ND doesn't want to go the route again of firing a guy and paying him for years NOT to coach them.
Who you all got?
Kelly has a strike or two against him, now. His offense was brilliant, but it was flawed and the two NC games they played exposed its weakness against dominant DLs, which are always going to be an obstacle to an NC. And the sheen came off of his abilities a bit in the way he not only didn't prosper in the NFL, but actually became so predictable that articles were being written about it.
And he appears to be both hard to deal with and to play fast and loose with the rules.
Nevertheless, if I were a fan of ND I would want ND to give him close (and careful) consideration. A guy smart enough to develop the offense he had in Oregon is smart enough to evolve it (the model for such evolution is doing just fine in Columbus), and he still has a lot of tread left on his tires.
I guess a better question would be: Who would we, as fans of rival Michigan, least want to see coaching Notre Dame? Of the guys that are available, Chip Kelly seems high on the list. Tellingly, guys in this thread seem to be a fair representation of the fanbase in rooting for Brian Kelly to stay.
makes a lot of sense.
I bet he could recruit better at ND than at Oregon.
The Michigan man in me wants ND to hire Bret Bielema.
I really want to see Harbaugh take a couple of Kelly's ND teams to the woodshed.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
Mora at UCLA if they have a losing season.
Rodriguez at Arizona
A&M is tricky...he's had a horseshoe up his ass for awhile now..a few good wins against an SEC quality schedule (ie never leaving your conference footprint and 1 FCS win per season) will get them a propped up ranking in the 20's, 8 wins...he'd be kept around. SEC isn't very good, so winning 7 in conference won't be hard.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
wins and losses, if Oregon gets better this year, Stanford will be good again, Colorado could be better than them, USC...if they only win 6 or 7 games...or even 8 but finish 4th in the conference? Esepcially with a rough start to the season, and a blowout loss perhaps? Not saying it will happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. And not just that they've had 1 losing season, they've regressed each year.
Brady Hoke had 1 losing season and he was on the hot seat too.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
I agree with you, it's Mora. Look at Texas A&M, Hawaii, @Memphis (this is sneaky as hell), @Stanford, Colorado in first five weeks. A 1-4 or 2-3 start and UCLA is going to get twitchy.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
I think Sumlin probably will be the first but I wouldn't be surprised to see Butch "Champions of Life" Jones gone after this year as well.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
Hugh Freeze..
August 4th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
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August 4th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
Whoever it is, he will be from the SEC
August 4th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
You can deal with an asshole when he's winning, but not when he's losing. It's crazy how well the guy still recruits.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
It's a very good game, but I think Donkey Kong is the best game ever.
Brian Kelly is not the recruiter. Notre Dame is the recruiter.
I could be the HC there and I'd probably still reel in a halfway decent class. There are thousands of Catholic parents all over this country (and even non-Catholics) that dream of sending their children to Notre Dame. And then when you're offered a free ride to go there, it's hard to say no.
Notre Dame is always going to recruit well because its Notre Dame. Parents, grandparents, and great grandparents have been fans for decades and that all gets passed along.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^
Even if he tanked, didn't they just sign him to a big extension after the season? Financially wouldn't make a lot of sense then to fire him.
"Charlie Weiss? Hey, buddy! Glad you called!!"
You don't fire a guy a year after he wins the Big Ten, no matter how bad that year is.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
#TeamBrianKelly. His act has worn pretty thin - I heard second hand, but reliably, that many in his locker room are indifferent as to whether he stays or goes.
Given their financial resources, a stadium renovation in progress, and a tough schedule, I could see the Domers cutting Kelly loose.
Technically not a P5 Coach, so my second guess would be RichRod. He has issues at the QB spot, a relatively weak staff, and plays in an increasingly competent conference.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
Rich Rodriguez
Sumlin
B. Jones
Mora
B. Kelly
Kingsberry
Bret Bielema? 22 - 19 in four seasons, combined with a bad season this year, probably gets him the axe. Those Razorback fans are dying to be relevant again.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^
OSKEE!
August 4th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
The problem with the question on this thread is that it isn't asking who is most likely to get fired, but who is likely to get fired first.
And that is a separate question from which coaches are likely to have bad seasons, or at least bad starts. Because the culture of certain schools vary. Michigan, for example, had a coach so incompetent that he put a player on the field that had a concussion without realizing what was going on and lost to Rutgers, but they let him finish the season. Meanwhile LSU loses a game or two and Les Miles is gone.
It also relates to the personality of the coach--USC has fired guys midseason, but one of them was Lane Kiffin and the other was actively intoxicated during football games. "First fires" are likelier to be guys capable of embarrassing their university in public.
Brian Kelly could embarrass ND in public, but buyout issues and the AD's stubborn refusal to think that anything is ever wrong suggests that only an on-field attempted murder would prompt a mid-season firing.
I'll actually predict Butch Jones, because while he's probably ok and not the likeliest coach to be fired, a bad loss or two early could result in a fan uprising. Making him the most likely to be fired early.
And, look, there's a guy with head coaching experience right there on the staff, ready to steady the ship while not being any kind of threat to take the job permanently (and thus being the perfect interim guy that the school doesn't have to pretend to seriously consider). Are you ready for Brady Hoke leading the Vols onto the field at Neyland Stadium?
I'm not sure about Jones because their out of conference schedule is easy to give them wins and then the Georgia and Florida games are tough but not impossible, if he can take 1 of those he should be safe. With UK, USCe, Missouri, and Vandy he should be able to get at least 4-4 in conference and stay until December. He'll keep the record above .500 which may keep him around for a bit.
Ah, but this is low-probability speculation anyway, because we're guessing what school will make a highly unusual move that is necessitated by unexpected events. If a school expected a guy to lose so much that he would be fired midseason they would fire the coach before the season got close.
So what we're looking are bad losses. Teams losing games they're not supposed to. Seasons going off the rails.
Georgia Tech is no picnic. Tennessee SHOULD beat them, but it is not at all inconceivable that they could be upset as well. Lose to Georgia Tech, lose to Florida, and Butch Jones is coaching for his job against Georgia on September 30, right?
I think it's more likely that he's 4-0 than 2-2 going into that game, but 2-2 is far from implausible.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
Sumlin will get fired first. Their schedule is tough and I don't think he will make it farther than midseason.
I think both of the Arizona coaches will get fired, but probably not during the year. Kliff Kingsbury is a Texas Rich Rodriguez. He will get fired as well.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
Sumlin seems like a no-brainer. But I'm not sure ND cares about paying Kelly to not coach as much as they care about winning the right way. I don't think he's cheating, so not saying that. But continuously crapping on kids is a bad look for them, and I don't see the purple faced people eater changing his ways when things go wrong. And things will go wrong under the watchful gaze of TD Jesus. I think his new asst coaches acted like the space shuttle's heat shield - they deflected heat during the offseason. Now that the rocket is taking off again, they won't matter if it blows up...
August 4th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
Natives are restless in Knoxville, play Florida in week 3 however Ga Tech in week 1 and Hoke is reunited with his former coaches in week 2 as Indiana State comes to town. A poor showing vs Ga Tech and a loss to Florida(again) could spell his demise. They did beat Florida and Georgia last year and STILL lost the east. I think expectations are too high.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
I'm gonna go with Chris Ash after another craptastic year in Piscataway.
This will only be year two for Chris Ash at Rutgers. He signed a 5 year deal and everybody and their mother knows this is a major rebuild job. Even after another craptastic year this year, he will be around for at least 2018.
In his second season, after inheriting a smoldering crater of awful? No way. Definitely not during the season, and almost certainly not after.
While I agree with you and Jmer, I had to pick someone that wasn't already taken. With the obvious choices taken and the possibility of Rutgers doing a Rutgers kind of thing, I went with Ash. It's not likely, but if it happens I won't be surprised.
My first choice is Butch Jones fwiw.