OT: A thrilling Tour de France comes down to three days in the Alps
The Tour de France this year has been great, the best edition in years. The excitement starts with the leader, Julian Alaphilippe. Alaphilippe is primarily a classics puncheur who was tipped as a mountains jersey favorite; in previews of the overall competition, he didn't even rate a mention among a dozen good overall riders. Alaphilippe used smart riding and attacks to get a lead, but he shocked everyone by winning the sole individual time trial and climbing ably on the longer climbs in the Pyrenees.
His lead is far from insurmountable; a minute and a half can vanish in one bad day, or be chipped away in the three mountain stages about to take place. And that's where things get really exciting: Alaphilippe's lead is 1:35, but then there are five guys within 39 seconds.
The key this year is that the successor to Team Sky, Ineos, has not been able to control the climbs as they have in past years. Ineos has, in reigning champion Geraint Thomas and future star Egan Bernal, two guys in that group of five. But when things get steep the peloton has been blown apart, resulting in spectacular summits with contenders spread all over the mountain. At different times Thomas and Alaphilippe have both been in serious trouble, including on the same climb earlier this week.
This close bunch (the five guys are, in order, Thomas Steven Kruijswijk, Thibaut Pinot, Bernal, and Emanuel Buchmann) means that whatever happens in the next three days will be surprising and exciting. Many people believe Alaphilippe will crack; if he holds up it will defy expectations, and it would make him the first French winner of the Tour in a generation.
If he gets nuked, the differences amongst the next five are so small (and the time bonuses for winning so generous) that even small attacks late in climbs will be momentous and potentially decisive. Thibault Pinot, also French, might be the favorite if Alaphilippe crumbles, given his superior climbing in the last week. But he needs to put 15 seconds into Thomas and has never accomplished anything remotely this big. Ineos has two riders, which means that they can play better tactics, much like CSC did in 2008 to vault Carlos Sastre over Cadel Evans on Alpe D'Huez. And both Kruijswijk and Buchmann could just shock everyone.
Today they climb a Cat 3, a Cat 1, and two HC mountains before a quick descent to Valloire. It has been a great race already, and it's anybody's race going forward. Something great is going to happen in the next three days.
Could get a break in temps but a good dose of weather Friday, but primarily Saturday in the alps.
"Dose" of weather, eh? I see what you did there.
In my former racing days (small time stuff), I used to watch the live coverage in the middle of the night and then go into work looking like a zombie. Great to see that the finish will be determined by individual effort, not as much by team/peloton assistance in the final stages. Thanks to OP for the info, may try to catch some of it.
What I learned reading the OP exceeds everything I previously knew about bicycle racing which was that Lance Armstrong cheated.
Guy with talent with the best chemist will win. SPORTS
team chemistry
I've always followed the Tour as a passing interest, but Ineos/Sky has always made it dull enough that I've never really watched the individual stages. This year, I've actually had to tune into some of the more exciting stages. Great stuff! I may have to tune into more cycling events throughout the year now.
So which ever rider has the best designer drugs will win.
Highly recommend “Tour de Pharmacy” mockumentary starring Lance Armstrong, Mike Tyson...with reference to “Fab Five” and guest appearance by Chris Webber
I certainly enjoy the anti-Sky/Ineos possibilities, in the same way that everyone roots against the Warriors. But in Ineos internal warfare, I also am curious if Bernal just gets the green light to go and beat G. Thomas.
For those not following, Thomas is the "team leader" of Ineos (defending champ) that in theory everyone else on the team should support no matter the impact to their own results. But Ineos just so happens to also have a guy in Bernal that seems like he could hammer the mountains better than Thomas, so if he's ready to go on a climb and Geraint isn't, at what point do Ineos say "Eff it, just go Bernal".
The drugs make it hard to know for sure how these guys recover (and my take on doping is that everyone is [still] doing it, so to some degree the field is evened), but you do wonder if Pinot shot his wad in the Pyrenees...because if not, then certainly seems like if you were just to say "who is the best climber" Pinot is the answer, and therefore he should have the inside track if/when Alaphilippe cracks.
I don’t think Pinot shot his wad, but this being the first of three tough Alpine days, I think he conserved himself. It also was hotter than the next two days are supposed to be.
This is the most exciting close finish since Greg Lemond and his time trial into Paris.
As far as the doping, I am not a fan of it but at least its an even playing field.
What do you think will happen when they find a stranger in the alps?
Beyond the Alps lies more Alps and the Lord Alps those that Alps themselves. s/ Professor Quincy Adams Wagstaff
I dunno but it most likely involves a Corvette getting smashed.
Alaphillippe has been tested repeatedly and still has the lead. All of the 5 guys chasing him had their chances this week to stage a late run after the peloton broke apart, but couldn’t close the gap. Every time I think Alaphillippe is cracking, he finds enough to be where he needs to be. I’m thinking he holds them off.
Wasn't Lance Armstrong the most tested athlete in the history of sports?
Sorry - I see that you mean a different kind of test. I guess I am still jaded by cycling in thinking that everyone is doping.
Will be interesting to see if Alaphilipe cracks and if Thomas continues to find good legs. Who can follow Pinot on his attacks and can he take enough time on Ineos and Jumbo. It will be some exciting racing for sure.
Will not watch until another American starts taking better drugs than these guys again.
Hate when they crush a great mountain stage with a stupid downhill on the section. Kills all the drama and allows a rider who is struggling to catch back up.
They only catch up if they’re better at descending than the guys in front. Alaphilippe is an elite descender - that was not easy what he did today.
And things are blowing apart at the top of the Galibier and every pedal stroke is great. Alaphilippe desperately trying to hold on, losing time to the contenders behind him. Gripping stuff.
The order was this: Egan Bernal attacked and took real time with no response; Thomas later attacked and the contenders responded... except for Alaphilippe, who was dropped. However, Alaphillippe caught back on with all of the contenders save Bernal on a hair-raising descent. Bernal winds up taking 30 seconds on everyone else. Alaphilippe is just hanging on, but he is hanging on.
Whatever happens in the final days, Alaphilippe looks like he can be considered a legit GC contender in future grand tours - if he can get a better team around him. Quick-Step’s weakness is probably going to cost him tomorrow or Saturday.
It might. He’s quite vulnerable because he can’t rely on anybody else to contain attacks. In recent Tours the sky train would grind down most attacks, and even when it was diminished, the Sky leader could often count on a rider who was no real threat to him to track down attacks from a second or third placed rider that other riders needed to beat for GC placement.
Now there are six guys who can win. They’re all threats to Alaphilippe. He can’t match them all, and if he tries he’ll disintegrate. The plan for him is to accept small losses, as he did today, and try to stay with the group. But if Bernal and Pinot and Kruisjwijk launch successful attacks in rapid succession, he’s in big big trouble.
Movistar messed this one up good. Quintana could have been within seconds of the GC if they had not chased early for no apparent reason. (at least that I can figure anyway) Now THAT would have been about the craziest thing that I would have seen in the Tour in a while.
Liggett and Roll said as much, but I don't think so. I believe the tactical situation would have changed if Quintana would have been that far ahead, and the peloton would have ridden differently. They were pretty casual for most of the trip up the Galibier because they could be.
True, but there was not a whole lot of help for the yellow and team Ineos would have had to do all the work... could have had an interesting impact on the final climb. Would have been interesting is all, and Mov had nothing to lose by testing that strategy. (again, that I can figure out)
First time in a while i have watched, but this is great stuff!
Downhill saved Alaphallipe today. Gutsy effort but think he gets dropped with some mountain top finishing stages.
Lance always credited "team chemistry" for his success..... he wasn't wrong.
It's cynical, but there is no way Alaphilippe isn't doped.
Winning in the mountains and winning time trials just doesn't mesh with being a clean rider.
Been an exciting tour, though.
There is no way that most of the leaders aren’t doped. Advances in technology limit how crazy it can get, but doping tech is always ahead of the testers.
He hasn’t won any mountain stages, he’s just kept the yellow jersey. He actually hasn’t looked that strong in the mountains either, it’s more that his competitors haven’t been able to take the race by the throat.
The constant doping comments are tiresome. Yes, it’s entirely possible these guys dope. It’s also possible that elite athletes in the other sports you watch dope, too. Cycling makes more of an effort to catch dopers than other sports, which is why some guys get caught. That doesn’t mean the other sports are cleaner.
Alaphilippe’s TT raises some eyebrows -but he is a solid TTer and that course suited him, so I don’t know if that’s a smoking gun.
He hasn’t looked superhuman on the climbs though. He’s been in some difficulty in the last two mountain stages. He survived today because he’s a superb descender. (Doping presumably shouldn’t affect your ability to go downhill.) On the climb he had been dropped.
At any rate we have not seen the EPO-level performances where guys would just fly up the mountains and look invincible. All of these guys have looked mortal.
Team Ineos clearly does not have the same designer doping program (and perhaps not the same carte blanche from UCI to dope) that Sky did. Look no further than Wout Poels. Last year, total world beater; this year, dropped like a stone.
All the top riders in the Tour are doping, but this year one team is not head-and-shoulders above all others in "team chemistry". Makes for the most exciting race in a very long time. My biggest concern for the quality of the race is if Team Ineos is holding back, and is ready to unleash their super-special-secret stuff for the next couple of days....we'll see.
But yeah, Alaphillipe is glowing this year. Nuclear doping as compared to what he used to do.
I think the biggest factor is Froome’s absence. How many Grand Tours has Sky won without him riding?
Also, the reduction of riders per team from nine to eight makes it just slightly harder for a team to totally take over.
Two, and one of them Froome could have won if they hadn’t held him back to babysit Bradley Wiggins.
Good point about team size. The rider reduction does hurt a bit, and Ineos just had a rider thrown out yesterday. But even their reliable guys aren’t really able to control things.
I mean, have they ever won a Grand Tour when he hasn’t participated? I believe they haven’t. He was a key teammate in Wiggins’s and Thomas’s wins.