OT: Team USA Curling in Win-or-Die Game Tonight
The US Men's team, with wins over Canada and Switzerland in their last two games, sits 4-4 in the round robin, and must win their next and final game against Great Britain (really Scotland) to have a shot at the 4-team medal playoff.
That game is tonight at 8:05 PM 12:05 AM Eastern. Best bet is to stream on the NBC Sports app.
Team USA controls their own destiny: a loss and they are out but a win secures them at least a tiebreaker game opportunity to make the playoff.
Your rooting interests for this last session:
1) USA beats GBR
2) CAN beats DEN DEN beats CAN (thanks for the correction Alton)
3) KOR beats JPN
4) Whoever in SWE vs. NOR. Sweden has already guaranteed the top seed, and Norway was eliminated with a loss against Italy.
This creates a 4 way tie for 2nd. USA would take the 2nd seed by virtue of their 3-0 record against the other 3. The other 3 are all 1-2 against the 4 tied teams (and 1-1 against each other), so the third seed would be awarded to whoever has the best score from the last stone draws (currently SUI). The final two teams would play for the last spot.
This would put Sweden and Canada in the 1 and 2 spots, with a 3-way tie for 3rd between USA, GBR, and SUI. USA would automatically advance due to their wins over both teams, and SUI and GBR would play a single tiebreaker game for the last spot.
If Japan beats Korea, this would create a 5-way tie at 5-4 for the last 3 playoff spots. Again, USA would advance automatically by virtue of their top record against the tied teams (they would be 3-1), leaving CAN, GBR, SUI, and JPN to play two tiebreakers, with the two winners advancing.
Go USA!
February 20th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
He had a clean shot at the button with the hammer to go up 3 but ended up clearing the house.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
(1) The game is at midnight Eastern, not 8:05.
(2) The USA's rooting interest is definitely Denmark over Canada. If Canada wins, USA might end up in a 4-way tie and have to play in the playoff round. If Denmark wins, a USA win puts them in the semifinals.
If USA & Denmark win, USA is in the semifinals with a 2-seed.
If USA, Canada & Korea win, USA is in the semifinals with a 3-seed.
If USA, Canada & Japan win, USA is in a playoff (think of it as a quarterfinal) against Japan for the 3-seed.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
Oops you're right about the time.
Pretty sure you're wrong about the playoffs though.
Team USA will be tied with GBR and SUI at a minimum.
If USA and Denmark win, it will be a 4 way tie with Canada, and there will be two play-in games for two spots.
Basically, there is a single round of tiebreaker games, and they follow these rules:
1) No team that is tied for an open playoff spot will be eliminated without losing a tiebreaker UNLESS it is impossible to schedule a single round of tiebreakers to determine a winner
2) If there are an odd number of teams for an even number of spots, they will advance one team and have the others play tiebreakers, rather than eliminate a team without a tiebreaker loss.
Examples:
2 teams tied for 3rd: both are in, no tiebreaker games
2 teams tied for 4th: they play a tiebreaker, winner advances
3 teams tied for 3rd: highest ranked team (based on head to head record) takes the 3 seed, the remaining 2 teams play for 4th.
4 teams tied for 3rd: 2 tiebreaker games are played and the winners advance (this is what happens if USA and DEN win, as 4 teams will be tied at 5-4).
5 teams tied for 2nd: Top ranked team advances automatically (would be USA in the only scenario this happens), remaining 4 play 2 tiebreakers with the winners advancing.
NOTE: they had a tiebreaker in the mixed doubles event that illustrates this. OAR, CHN, and NOR all tied for 3rd at 4-3 in the round robin. OAR advanced automatically, as they had beaten both of the other two teams. CHN and NOR had a tiebreaker game (NOR won and advanced, even though they had lost to CHN in the round robin).
February 20th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
You are right about the rules, but you are wrong about the effect.
Yes, if USA & DEN win, it will be a 4-way or 5-way tie. So let's say USA, DEN, KOR, SWE all win. Final standings:
February 20th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
Ah, you're right. I had a dumb and forgot that a Canada loss leaves 3 open playoff spots.
(But #1 is Sweden, not Noway)
February 20th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
A good "well actually" post must have at least one factual error in it. Good job finding mine.
February 21st, 2018 at 8:38 AM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 7:36 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
Everyone makes devastating mistakes. The NBC color guy is Kevin Martin, widely considered the greatest curler of all time; he once infamously threw away a rock in an end that wound up losing a world championship. Rachel Homan, the best female curler in the world, had a horrid start to the Olympics with several bad biffs. These things happen.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
He's been playing much better in this Olympics. Already won twice as many games as the last two tries, and this a stronger field.
The weak point early was the 3rd, Tyler George. But he's played better in the current win streak.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
That curling is so popular that NBC is pushing to have lawn bowling in the summer olympics.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:48 PM ^
I'd much rather see Bocce than another hour of human interest stories about the relationship between volleyball players and their moms.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
Scotland is a part of Great Britain ....
February 20th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
Right, but everyone on the team is from Scotland specifically. Sort of how the winning ice dancers last time around were team Michigan.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
The women's team is also 4-4 but, I believe, needs help to ensure a victory would clinch a tie-breaker.
The US men have been doing this the hard way, beating good teams and losing to bad ones. It's fair to say that Great Britain is really Scotland insomuch as that's where the team is from, but in the same sense Canada is really Alberta, which is the province they represent when they compete in the Brier.
It's a tough match, but Shuster is catching fire after a (sadly characteristic) shaky start. The win over Canada was thrilling and a lasting memory regardless of what happens going forward.
This has been a strange tournament, with the South Korean women basically dominating everybody (they hit every tough shot against the US Women last night) and both favored Canadian teams struggling.
Fauxmo, I challenge you to slide down the ice at jogging pace on a sole that is designed to be as slippery as possible while carefully following a nearly-50-pound rock 50 or 60 times without falling over, hitting your head, and regretting it. It's not as easy as it looks.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^
The women play Sweden at 6:00 am EST. If they lose, they are out. If they win, they are likely (but not definitely) advancing.
There are too many scenarios, but most of them seem to have USA in a quarterfinal/playoff game if they win. Small chance of a direct bid to the semifinals, small chance of being left out anyway.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
Why is there men's AND women's curling? If womens' sports want to get more respect, any sport that doesn't require physical strength/speed should be co-ed. Curling, archery, shooting, etc.
Equestrian is a great example. Non-physical, they compete mixed, women generally dominate the sport.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
Ask a curler, and I think they will tell you that physical strength is a factor in how well you curl and how well you sweep.
In sailing, which is about 70 percent skill & strategy and 20 percent luck, they still separate the sexes because of that other 10 percent.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
Weight is a significant factor in sailing; an average physically fit woman is not as heavy as an average physically fit man, and that causes non-trivial differences in righting moment (basically, different levels of weight countering the force of the wind, holding the boat upright). This is particularly notable in dinghy sailing, where (for example) women actually race lasers with a different sized sail than men do. But it can also affect larger boat sailing--the Volvo Ocean Race runs 65' yachts with multi-ton canting keels, but they still allow more crewmembers when women are part of or all of a crew.
I suspect you're right re: curling.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
"Weight" and "Strength" are that other 10 percent I was referring to.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
Men can throw harder with control, which makes certain shots possible. Men are much stronger sweepers, which means that men are effectively shooting at a wider target.
Net result is that the top men shoot with 85-90% accuracy, top women are more like 75-85%. Not huge, except in a game where one or two shots determine the result.
Finally, there are just more men playing at a competitive level.
The best women's team would probably be top 20 in the men's league - very good, but not consistently competitive. They would not be top 10.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
Good data. I suspected the bit about curling percentages but I have no idea where to verify that.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
I just looked (VERY ROUGHLY) at the team accuracy scores from the last few Briers and Scotties.
Basically it looks like the best women's team at the Tournament of Hearts tends to have similar accuracy to the worst team at the Brier.
February 20th, 2018 at 5:46 PM ^
@Alton - I'm pretty sure the US women need a loss from another team, in addition to their win. Sweden, Japan, and Great Britain can all still get to 6 wins, which would mathematically eliminate USA. Although you're right that all 3 winning out would be statistically unlikely.
February 20th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
Exactly right. If Sweden beats China, Great Britain beats Canada, and Japan beats Switzerland, there is nothing the USA women can do to advance.
February 21st, 2018 at 12:39 AM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Team Canada is from Alberta, but all of Canada is competitive in curling. I just like Scotland as the traditional home of the game, and all of the olympic curlers are from there (and are mostly literal sheep farmers)
February 20th, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^
Fair enough point. Of course, US curling is currently pretty regional, too, as anyone who has seen me woofing about the plethora of Duluthians currently curling for the US in Pyeonchang probably realizes. Everyone is basically from either Duluth or the Madison area, with Aileen Geving and Matt Hamilton crossing the border to make both teams "regionally mixed."
I expect that someday Duluth people will look back at the times when Duluth was always represented in Olympic curling as the "good old days." It's getting popular enough that some good teams are going to start emerging from somewhere else. It has actually kind of already started--Tyler George used to compete against Shuster, and Hamilton is a guy that could easily be a skip himself.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
Cool Story Bro time: I've actually played a game (and drank a beer) with Tyler George. He dropped by our club (Phoenix) about a week after he won the nationals with Shuster, and we happened to be down our vice that night so he borrowed a broom and subbed for us.
We actually lost by one. Tyler was obviously the best curler on the ice, but the opposing skip was on fire and didn't miss a shot all night.
February 20th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
That's awesome!
February 21st, 2018 at 12:41 AM ^
February 21st, 2018 at 5:55 AM ^
i'm sure that was fun. do they serve beer like they apparently do at putin's chaska center?
February 21st, 2018 at 8:37 AM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
Fit and Active Challenge but I heard you have to do drugs and it looks like all participants kneel down the whole competition after the National Anthem.
I'll just wait until Leaf-Blowing is in the Olympics.
Neg Away at will, I have beer.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
They're coming back to America. I don't think we take the Winter Olympics as serious as other countries.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
They're gonna curl up and die
February 20th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
Too Bad. I'd dearly love to see more sports that don't involving grasping your skis/snowboard while airborne.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^
Women's downhill at 9:00 pm tonight. I would think NBC will cover at least the first 20 or so down the hill--hopefully more--before they cut away to women's figure skating. Lindsey Vonn drew #7.
And, of course, USA hockey in the quarterfinals at 10 pm. Not sure which network (NBCSN?) but it won't be NBC.
February 20th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
I don't believe Ester Ledecka will be racing in the downhill, so that threat is out the window.
In truth, there are only a couple of skiers past #10 that are threats to win, not to mention #20. What Ledecka did, away from NBC's broadcast, was shocking to everybody. If they show racers 20-30 to ensure they don't miss anyone and Vonn isn't the one standing to win, it will be ratings poison.
FWIW Vonn is definitely the co-favorite here along with Italian Sophia Goggia. Shiffrin has been sking exceptionally well in downhills, and I'm disappointed she chose to withdraw here--unlike Super G, she would be a legitimate medal threat. Watch for Lara Gut, too, who is coming back from injury but looked great in the Super G.
Downhill, done right, is the most spectacular thing in winter sports. I'm not a huge fan of the Pyeongchang hill but I'm looking forward to the racing tonight.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^
Agree to a point about shiffrin, but she has to be the favorite tmwr in the combined and she seems to not want to risk back to back days
February 20th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^
She should win the combined by two or three seconds. I don't think it's possible for someone to be more of a favorite in a sport of this nature.
I understand why she's doing it, and her lackluster slalom performance suggests it's a good idea, but it's still unfortunate that it has to be this way.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^
I am with you on that.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:48 PM ^
What sucked about the Ledecka coverage was less that it wasn't live, but rather:
1) They had already, multiple times, all-but-awarded the gold medal while making it very clear that no one else had a chance
2) When Ledecka finished her run, they gave away the result on the air before showing the run. Everyone knows the NBC coverage is not-quite-live. There was no reason not to switch back to the alpine venue at a natural break in the skating and broadcast a "live" play-by-play of Ledecka's run. They took all the excitement out of it, when it would have been easy to make it a surprise for the broadcast audience.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^
I understand what you're saying, but:
1. That is pretty much par for the course in alpine skiing coverage away from the Olympics, too. The podium is set after the top competitors have gone. I've heard the same things from dedicated skiing announcers in regular World Cup races with some frequency.
2. The surprise would have been fun, I suppose, but I appreciate them being honest about what happened. They had already declared Veith the winner, so to come back and pretend that they were just showing another competitor would be disengenuous. By acknowledging when things are live and when they are not they are, in my opinion, treating the audience as adults.
It would be better to emphasize the "likely" part of "likely winner" more going forward, and perhaps explain that they will come back if there are new developments. But I think running the highlight as it was, instead of faking a live broadcast where there was none, is fair to the audience. They'd get roasted if they pretended they were just flipping over spontaneously, and you can't replicate surprise in an announcer like that.
My 2 cents.
February 20th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
Why not just have an announcer record a live play by play, so they are genuinely excited, and then say "we've had a shocking turn of events on the alpine hill, and would like to show you as it happened - here's so and so with the call"?
On golf coverage, they do this all the time - "From moments ago, here's so and so's shot on 15..." You know they wouldn't be cutting to it if it wasnt a big deal, but you accept that that's how the sport is presented.
Heck, even on a Sports Center highlight, they don't give away the outcome until the end of the clip, even if most people watching already know the result.
Yes, we're adults, but we're also watching to be entertained. Sometimes that takes a little suspension of disbelief.