OT: Ohio extends stay-at-home order until May 1
Ohio Governor DeWine just extended the stay-at-home (shelter in place) order until May 1. He had already ordered schools closed (universities remote operation) until that time, but now non-essential businesses are closed for that duration as well (the new order also provided greater clarity on which businesses can stay open and how, since many were not following the spirit off the order).
Maybe that's possible but I don't see how when even small intersection between the socially active and the socially isolated causes massive spread. This simulation went around a couple weeks back and sums it up pretty well (with randomized examples): https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Specifically, see the comparison between "Forced Quarantine" and "Social Isolation". Forced quarantine works well for keeping things on one side of the fence, but it only works until something breaks through and it's back to spreading like wildfire.
The model in Korea is: test, test, test. When you get a positive, test the people they've been in contact with. Quarantine all positive tests. Seems like we could do that if/when test production is at an acceptable level, but I have no idea what those numbers or that timeframe look like.
Yes, that was a good article. I don’t know enough about the cost or scale of testing requires, but the SK model would obviously be ideal. Just as important would be a reliable antibody test. Think about the value to society a nurse or caretaker that is ‘certified immune’ could have at a nursing home. Or first responders or doctors in a Covid unit that are immune so that they are at lower risk of spreading the infection. Also, I could definitely see gyms or restaurants opening back up but requiring immunity certification for entry.
A big issue with that is forcing less vulnerable to work. I don't think you can do it, I don't think the more vulnerable will want them taking their jobs, and it's getting close to ageism in a way, which violates the Constitution.
You wouldn’t force anyone to do anything. The govt would pull back restrictions with guidance. The level of exposure would be up to the individual within the constraints set by the govt.
I get the comment of ageism, but we’re past the point of political correctness here. I’m personally not willing to risk a Great Depression to save the appearance of a specific job opportunity or access to a public gym for a 70 yr old with pre-exhisting conditions. Sure, in specific cases firing someone that is high-risk to hire someone at low-risk probably violates some laws and isn’t right. That would have to be well thought through. The proposal is more on the consumer side, which is ultimately owned by the individual and their own risk tolerance.
Are you really proposing that we lock down society in its entirety indefinitely just to avoid ageism?
I think the idea isn't executable, for the reasons I stated. A bunch of non-vulnerable will not go back to work, and a bunch of vulnerable will go back to work and get infected, and a bunch of people who do not want to go back to work for health reasons will do perceived pressure.
Because humans.
EDIT: I will say if you get a test showing you're immune, which they are fast tracking, obviously that could change the calculus in a couple months.
As for locking society down, the greatest generation changed their entire society to fight a war; I think we're more than capable of staying in our homes and limiting interaction.
I'm all for those measures being implemented and long-term we absolutely need them in order to mute the next such virus outbreak. But I'm a little tired of the sanctimonious tone people (not saying you) take with the concerns about people going back to work and the US returning to some degree of its past day-to-day operations. I absolutely care about people and their health; I have family who are squarely in the vulnerable population and have family members fighting on the front lines against the current pandemic. It's absolutely real to me how serious this disease is and the death toll it will enact.
But long-term unemployment, forced proximity to individuals in an abusive relationship, etc. all have mortality tolls as well. Depending on the severity and duration of an economic downturn, suicide and homicide rates can go up, people can develop cardiovascular and stress-related illnesses at a higher rate than expected, and mental health can suffer. I know there are measures in place to halt evictions, but at some point those will stop and if people aren't able to pay those bills many will lose their homes. That's a real and negative effect on people. And this is somewhat anecdotal, but it does appear that due to seniority and the nature of this pandemic (it hits older people harder, so they're less likely to be asked to deal with COVID-positive patients), we're losing younger medical professionals who are on the front lines as an accelerated clip, and that's going to have lasting effects on the medical field for a generation.
There needs to be a plan, and I'm all for it leading to a continued shelter-in-place as long as there's some concrete-ish timeline after that. But I work a reasonably-stable white-collar job and they already had to cut salaries for managers like myself; there are a LOT of companies worse-off than us who are cutting people. I'm not saying anyone needs an answer tomorrow, but if they keep delaying defining the next step (like various states did with enacting social distancing measures), there's going to be a lot of pain and suffering for people who are already stretched pretty thin.
The only plan is to act like everybody has the virus until there's a vaccine or some miracle drug. Maybe enough people change their habits?
The thing is just too contagious, even if a lot of people are asymptomatic, that's not going to change the death numbers/growth or hospitalization/severe sickness numbers/growth.
It just means it's that much harder to stop.
Did the Ohio Governor specify whether golf courses were shut down till May? Asking for a friend.
She issued a "shit in your cooler at home" order, so I assume so.
This is what's going to happen if people keep flushing those Kleenex and paper towels.
OSU will be well prepared.
Since no one here has answered you ....
As of a few days ago (March 29) the Ohio Dept of Health (ODH) stated they will remain open, a couple days after initially stating they would be closed. They are considered “open recreational areas” like state parks and walking trails. Pretty safe place to be is on a golf course 250 yards away from the nearest human.
Not sure that’s still true since DeWine extended the stay at home order and said the authorities are going to be cracking down more.
EDIT: as of 45 minutes ago (below). Looks like they’ll be open. I know what I’m doing Saturday and Sunday.
EDIT 2: after further research, it looks like each county can decide for themselves.
Ohio’s stay-at-home order still allows for essential businesses, such as grocery stores and pharmacies, to remain open. Citizens are permitted to leave their residencies for the following reasons:
- health and safety
- necessary supplies
- outdoor activity
This means Michigan will extend the order until May 1st tomorrow.
Whitmer has already asked the legislature for 70 days.
The answer cannot be an "all-or-nothing" approach. Enforcing a stay-at-home order that lasts for 18 months (or longer) until we have a vaccine is not going to be supported by the public in any way. So unless the intent is for the National Guard to start shooting people on sight, I don't see how it's possible.
There are some things we can do in the meantime to minimize risk. First, obviously, massively scale available testing. Second, everyone - and I mean everyone - needs to start taking their temperature every day, preferably via one of the IoT-based thermometers in use by Kinsa. SARS2 will have a 10-14 days head start on another outbreak if we wait on test results for sick people. Public health officials and government leaders need to know at a hyper-localized level when they have the emergence of an influenza-like illness.
Third, everyone needs to start wearing masks in public. They don't have to be N95; there are many alternatives, and the data says that durable, tightly-woved cotton masks with a double layer of material seem to be about 70% effective. That will help limit the spread.
Well said. I believe another key factor is can we get wide spread cheap and quick testing. Perhaps manufacturers need to test their assembly line workers prior to the start of their shifts.
Ohio has 2,902 confirmed cases and 81 deaths. Michigan has 10,791 confirmed cases and 417 deaths. Suffice it to say that if they’re closing up to at least May 1, we will be, too.
The fact that individual states are still making decisions is a shit show. It won't matter if Ohio handles it perfectly if Florida and Arizona continue to be a shit show and domestic travel is still ongoing.
Domestic travel isn't really happening right now. What flights remain - and there are very few - have a small handful of passengers on them. Load factors on airlines are running below 5%.
Yes, exactly.
It is funny and scary to imagine what it would be like if the federal government actually tried to govern in an attempt to ensure our well-being, as a country. A substantial portion of our population not only see the federal government as incompetent, but also as having bad intentions. I wonder if Reagan and Norquist envisioned the type of person they would create with their rhetoric.
That's why it's a "federal" government - it doesn't have as much power as the states in this.
Crazy part is we haven't even begun to feel the fallout in the US from what's likely to happen in Mexico. Sure seems like it's going to be bad there. That's gonna really hurt SE Michigan due to the amount of production for the auto industry that occurs south of the border.
Mexico is going to be in very big trouble, I fear. The large cities in Mexico (Mexico City in particular) are likely going to make NYC look well managed. They’re very late to the party on this, and their president declaring that poor people don’t get the virus certainly don’t set a great confidence in their ability to manage.
Everything I read suggests that Ohio, as a state, has been handling this nearly as well, if not better than, any other.
I have to literally get drunk to say this sincerely, but....good job, Ohio.
Mike DeWine has been incredibly on top of this situation compared to other governors - so much so that international press is taking notice:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186
He took a lot of flak early on for his actions (so many thought it was a wild over-reaction), but now he's been pretty much vindicated. I don't follow OH politics much, but they have generally been responding better than MI state leaders (read: politicians) at this point.
(Also, he is not an OSU guy - did his undergrad at Miami University and law school at Ohio Northern. FYI.)
I think Newsome, who I hate as a former CA resident, has steered the state away from total disaster. He’s done a GREAT job. He’s still a fuckhead though.
This virus in an inflection point- a complete change in how we operate as a species fundamentally. Socially, economically, etc... Its going to be a hard fall, but perhaps we can create a better world because of it.
I hope one major result is that the entire US Congress seriously reevaluates how the United States deals with China and our dependence on the economy of an entirely untrustworthy totalitarian regime.
Sure seems like there is the potential for bipartisan common ground when it comes to incentivizing more of our key manufacturing to occur domestically.
plus one for truth (some things will be the same, but the world is changed forever)
Ohio, leading the way, one day at a time
Our projected peak in Michigan isn't until early (if people suck at social distancing) to mid (if enough people practice social distancing) May.
The catch is we have to continue social distancing until the cases stop spreading, we can't just return to normal business once the numbers start declining.
According to this site's projections, the peak is April 9th:
Until Whitmer’s press conference tonight, now it is magically “weeks away.”
Im bout to drink de wine.
I mean it makes sense. Some estimates have the next ~month as being the worst of the virus
I'm no expert, but I think the likely outcome here is that we will likely have the stay at home order until June or July, then the stay at home order will be loosened to have a "trial run" after it mathematically makes sense to, hospitals likely won't be overwhelmed by patients, and there is a significant increase in the available tests, respirators, etc. Then numbers of cases will be closely monitored for a few weeks to see what happens and there could likely be need for another quarantine. I'm guessing that process will continue until a vaccine is developed
I heard they also extended the poop-in-cooler order into perpetuity.
100% going to change our culture and our ways of life for the future. As 9/11 did, this is going to change the way we live our daily lives for the near future and many years to follow. I hope it doesn't last the 12-18 months, but whatever is for the best of the people and our Country, I'm all for it.
Anyone that thinks shelter in home for 3 to 6 more months is a realistic option is delusional.
You would be learning Chinese in short order.
Well, if the pattern holds Whitmer will announce the same in the next few days for Michigan.
Going to go a hell of a lot longer than May 1st. And if we’re talking about shelter in place until a vaccine is ready, as some here are suggesting, you’re talking about minimum 18 months. I’d be concerned at that point about basic functions of society starting to unravel. Not from the virus itself, but the aftershock of everything its doing.
Having this many people out of work for even a fraction that long will drastically increase the crime rate in America. You’ll have millions of people with no job, no food, no money, and will still have bills to pay, children to provide for, etc. How many of them do you think will be desperate enough to feed their families that they start breaking into homes and robbing people because they literally have no other choice?
What’s it also going to do to the already unstable mental health situation in this country? I hate to be so callous about this, but how many people who are already teetering on depression, now having lost their jobs and livelihood, will consider taking their own lives? What if someone decides to turn school shootings into grocery store shootings?
This is going to keep getting exponentially worse before it gets even slightly better. I get that you can’t just start sending people back to work, but you’re in a lose-lose situation here no matter what you do. This shit will define our generation.
Hey how are you and future Mom of the year doing? My thoughts are with you!!
Shelter-in-place prevents our health care system from being overwhelmed, but doesn't give us herd immunity. Even if it was 100% effective at preventing community spread, lifting the order means one infected person can begin spreading it again, and we're back to the beginning. Not to mention that as long as the virus poses this level of threat, people are not going to want to do all the things they did before. Seriously, without a vaccine or effective treatment, how many tickets will be sold for the next Michigan football game?
In order to lift the shelter in place orders, we need to lower the potential death tolls. This means lowering both the R0 (transmission rate) and the CFR (case fatality rate). In order to get people to want to go out, you have to convince them their risk is justified (and the risk to them from others is acceptable to them, which is not the same as saying "my risk is low so I'll go out"), which means that you have better have a convincing, evidence-supported plan.
Lowering R0 is not an easy proposition. South Korea is taking the path of testing everyone and quarantining everyone with a positive result. With ubiquitous rapid testing (suppose everyone with last name A-F gets tested every Monday and so forth) and support for quarantining people (namely, if you test positive the government guarantees your job or medical costs) we could try that ... but we're more numerous than they are; would it scale?
Another possibility is that masks prove effective, and we come with a design and mass-produce them for everyone. Then you can go out if you're wearing your mask (and we have a way to clean/sterilize them routinely so they remain effective).
Lowering the fatality rate requires either a vaccine or a readily available palliative treatment e.g. stay in bed for ten days with readily available medicine and while it might be the worst flu you've ever had, you won't die or end up with lung scarring. Reduce it to a bad flu treatable at home, and we won't overstrain our critical care infrastructure.
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Y'all asking for the country to reopen - you tell me, how close do you think we are to any of that?
Now they're closing my parks. This is getting ridiculous. People are not going to stay in their homes or just walk around the neighborhood. It is possible to maintain social distance at parks. I just did it last weekend at one of those that will now be closed. Reckless people will continue to be reckless no matter how many places are closed.
http://ohiodnr.gov/news/post/hocking-hills-state-park-closed-until-further-notice