OT: NFL 2023 - Which team makes the annual "worst to first" leap?
In 2002 the NFL adopted the current scheduling model in which teams are matched up inside their respective league games based on their prior year's standing, first place plays first place, second plays second and most importantly, last place teams in their division play last place teams from the other divisions. In 18 of the 20 years since then at least one team made the jump from "worst to first" in their division, aided largely by the teams they are playing being weaker than their division rivals.
Here are the 8 teams that could capture the goat to glory crown this year. I'm handicapping them based on what I see as their respective chances to make that happen:
#8 Houston Texans - Houston has a terrible roster, a first year Head Coach and a rookie QB who doesnt like playing in cold weather OR getting hit. What could go wrong?
#7 Arizona Cardinals - Like Houston, the Cardinals roster from top to bottom is garbage. They are definitely in tear-down mode and have a QB who could've been an extra on the Wizard of Oz. No chance in Hell they are able to move past the 49ers, Seahawks & Rams.
#6 Denver Broncos - I actually think the Broncos will be much better this year now that Nathanial Hackett has taken his talents to the big apple. I mean Russell Wilson couldnt be THAT bad two years in a row now could he and Sean Payton has proven he knows how scheme for a height-challenged QB. But can all that knock the Chiefs off their AFC throne? No freaking way.
#5 Washington Commanders - I need to pause for a moment to say just how freaking STUPID of a name that is IMO. I get why the Redskins had to go but couldnt they have come up with something a bit better? Anyways, as much as I like Ron Rivera as a coach last time I checked you still need a QB to win in this league and the four-headed monster of Brissett, Howell, Fromm and DeMorat scares absolutely no one. Except for Commander fans - they should be absolutely terrified. Not getting past the G-men, America's team and last year's runner-up to the Lombardi.
#4 Chicago Bears - Yes I know Justin Fields just proclaimed he's going to pass for 4,000 yards this season. Well guess what Justin, I just proclaimed you have 0.0% chance of turning that fantasy into reality. The only reason I dont have them slotted lower is the NFC North is a hot mess right now (that's a good thing Lions fans) so they actually could make a move and it wouldnt be terribly shocking. But they wont. Just like Fields and his 4,000 yard fever-dream.
#3 Atlanta Falcons - Playing in in the worst division in organized sport gives them more than a punchers chance of winning the division. The only problem is I'm definitely not sold on their HC Arthur Smith (always looks confused to me) and I'm DEFINITELY, DEFINITELY, DEFINITELY not sold on any of their craptastic options at QB.
#2 Cleveland Browns - Playing the best division in the league makes their job a tough one indeed. Compounding matters do the Browns have the Houston Texans Watson at QB or the, cough, cough, different version we all saw last year? If it's the former the Browns could be lethal - the rest of the roster is loaded. If it's the latter than Stefanski, Berry, DePodesta and anyone else in the front office better get their resumes updated. It's playoffs or bust but I'm not sure they have enough to overtake the Bengal and/or the Ravens. And fuck the Steelers and their tiny handed QB.
#1 New York Jets - J.E.T.S. Jets, Jets, Jets. Another team with a loaded roster and a huge question mark at QB. IF Aaron Rodgers returns to form they will be very tough to beat. But if father time remains undefeated (sorry, he has one loss - Tom freaking Brady) then the team will be in BIG trouble. Look at the stats from last year and you'll see he more than a little bit stunk. FWIW I kinda think the Bills & Fins are going to regress a bit (both Allen & Tua had injury issues last year) and Bill without Brady is like peanut butter without jelly so the division is theirs for the taking.
What say you?
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Jets. I'm kidding. Rodgers will get his bell rung in Game 4 and then will go fly off to a yoga retreat in Bali for three years.
I think the Falcons have the best shot. The Bucs will vie for a top draft pick with Baker Mayfield at the helm. The Falcons can battle it out with Carolina and the Saints. I think the Falcons may have been playing the best football at the end of the season amongst the four shitty teams in that division.
Agree the rest of the division is a hot mess so I could definitely be talked into the Falcons except for three little words.
Woodside, Ridder, Heinieke.
I mean that trio of QB awfullness is almost as bad as Washington's.
Would be very interesting to look at whether past worst-to-first teams did it with an established top-level (or at least high-competent) QB, or whether a QB leap is also part of the equation.
Falcons have the best shot, division is hot garbage.
would be cool to see the Jets or Browns back in playoffs. To hell with the Bears (and White Sox and Blackhawks and Bulls)
I'll guess the Browns as long as QB1 stays away from the Goddamn massage parlors
Washington Football Team. Being free of Snyder will be an unfathomably big difference maker.
or this could be completely wrong and it’s just more LOL Commandos, but idk
Washington FC was sitting right there, too, for a less stupid name.
or hell, DCFC.
The Falcons have far and away the easiest road to winning their division, but that says more about the state of the NFC South than it does about the Falcons abilities and talent.
The NFC South is going to be bad this year. Could be pretty good in a few years, with Bryce Young in Carolina and Tampa possibly winning the Caleb Williams sweepstakes next season, but this season? It’s going to be bad. Probably the worst division in the league. 9-10 wins might win that division.
I’m not sure how much better Derek Carr makes the Saints than they were with Winston. Carolina is at least a year away under Bryce Young, assuming he even pans out. The Falcons added some talent this off-season, but who knows if Desmond Ridder is actually any good. And then the Bucs sold their souls for those three years under Brady.
It was all worth it and then some. They got a ring out of it, but the devil has come for his due, and you’ve got Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask left to pick up the check. They have some really good individual talent, particularly at receiver, but their quarterback play will hold them back big time. I won’t be surprised if they tear down the entire team next season and start over.
Atlanta has the best shot. They're playing in the NFL's version of the AL Central, so 8-9 might win the division.
And while I'm definitely going all in on Garrett Wilson in fantasy this year, I don't trust Aaron Rodgers outdoors in December anymore. The Bills are still a top 5 team IMO.
I don't think the Texans should be last on this list. Their division is soft unless you think the Jaguars are for real. Sometimes a first year coach can spark a turnaround (Harbaugh with the 49ers). CJ Stroud never got it done against us but he might be good enough to go 9-8 in the AFC South.
Since the current division alignment in 2002/03 season, there has been at least one "worst to first" (last place one year, first place the next year, tie breakers count) in a division in 18 of the 20 years (discounting the initial 2022/03 season). Only the 2014/15 and 2019/20 seasons lacked a worst-to-first. Three of the first four years it happened twice a season, but only one season since (2017/18, Jaguars & Eagles).
These stats do not include three other times a team has tied for the worst record to win the division the following year. Or four times a team with the worst record went on to tie for the best division record the following year.
Also note: Seasons here are designated by the year of the regular season, but with the playoffs in the following calendar year, that later year is identified too. E.g., the upcoming season is the "2023/24" season. Most people would call last year the "2022" season but it technically ended in 2023, so I am using the hybrid designation -- "2022/23" -- for clarity.
HISTORIC TRENDS:
AFC East: Done only once (Dolphins 2008/09--when Brady broke his leg)
AFC North: Done only once (Bengals 2020/21, courtesy of Joe Burrow).
AFC South: Done only twice by same franchise (Jaguars, 2017/18 and last year).
AFC West: Not done since 2011/12 (Broncos).
NFC East: Done six of the last 11 years in the NFC East (including five of six years from 2012/13 thru 2017/18), but not the past two seaons. (Another crazy stat: the division has not had a repeat winner since the Eagles in the 2004/05 season!)
NFC North: Done only twice by same franchise (Bears, 2005/06 and 2018/19).
NFC South: Done six of seven seasons in the once-turbulent NFC South (2003/04 thru 2009/10), but not since!
NFC West: Has never happened!
Not that this is a predictor of greatness. Of all 22 worst-to-first winners, only two won a Superbowl (Saints 2009/10, Eagles 2017/18) and two lost (Panthers 2003/04, Bengals 2021/22). Most of the 22 ended up as third or fourth seeds in the playoffs; only three had the top seed (those Saints & Eagles plus Cowboys 2016/17).
MY TAKE ON THIS YEAR'S CANDIDATES:
AFC East: Jets. The obvious choice, b/c A-A-Ron Rod-ger-ers? But won't happen b/c (1) history of division, (2) Josh Allen, (3) Tua* (*assuming no one touches him for 17 games), (4) Jets' OL (or, the lack thereof), (5) they are the Jets.
AFC North: Browns. Tempting b/c Watson could come back to original form (on the football field). But won't happen b/c (1) history of division, (2) Joe Burrow, (2A) Lamar* (*assuming no one touches him for 17 games), (4) Steelers, (5) they are the Browns.
AFC South: Texans. I mean... the division sucks, rite? And, look, their starting QB has got to have some confidence; Michigan finally has rotated off the schedule this season.
AFC West: Broncos. Immovable force (Russ's decline) meets irresistable object (Sean Peyton). Well, then there are Mahomes, to a lesser extent Herbert, and (*checks Raiders' QB roster*) ok just Mahomes and to a letter extent Herbert.
NFC East: Commanders* (*new name to be designated later). Pros: New owner; potentially solid D and quality receiving corps; Eagles lost half the starting D and both the OC and DC; Cowboys have Dak and Jerry; and Giants have Jones but no Saquan. Cons: (1) Ron Rivera, (2) are starting a 5th round pick with a total of one start in his career where he had a QBR of 46, and (3) Jalen Hurts.
NFC North: Bears. Won't happen b/c their starting QB is permanently disabled due to the fact he started at OSU, from where no QB has ever had a notable NFL career*. (*other than: (1) Mike Tomszak, took snaps as third-string mop-up in Superbowl XX for Da Bears (but did not even make box score b/c all he did was hand the ball off in one of the greaest SB routs of all time, which is saying something), and (2) Tom Tupa, who had a long NFL career as a starter... as a punter).
NFC South: Falcons. I mean... the division sucks, rite? (Note: Technically, Panthers and Saints tied with Falcons for worst record in the division in 2022/23, to there is also a 50% chance of a worst record-to-first place this year.)
NFC West: Cardinals. Hahaha. Here only ex officio. And again, it's never happened in this division, and 2023/24 ain't gonna break that streak.\
So: Obviously it's the Falcons.
The Dirty Birds. Already made them part of my division winners parlay
J E T S Suck Suck Suck
Go Dolphins