Ok does anyone see the obvious conflicts of interest?
Its one thing to have TV shows on how to wager against Vegas’s lines. The network has no profit motive there, other than eyeballs on the TV. Bad advice= less audience. But its an indirect effect.
But if ESPN also SETS the lines, now it has an incentive to mislead viewers to bet a certain way (the “wrong” way). Or to fire hosts who get it “right” too many times.
Its super stinky to pretend to be journalists covering as “news” the very sports they want you to watch (see eg their coverage of MMA and boxing, which they push disproportionately to viewers who care) But way, way more stinky to now have betting lines … potentially based on intel from their news group and when they have direct influence on betting public.
I dont doubt ESPN will claim they have Chinese walls to segregate their business units so nothing untoward will happen. But it sure looks awful.
This is an excellent point and likely to be a real issue.
However, to play the devils advocate, your adage still holds true. If they give bad betting advice, they will eventually lose viewers. I could see them pushing lopsided lines though, where all the money has come in on 1 side and they know if they change the line, the money will rush in the other way.
August 8th, 2023 at 10:50 PM ^
I could see them pushing lopsided lines though, where all the money has come in on 1 side and they know if they change the line, the money will rush in the other way.
Not that I am advocating for this being an ethical agreement, but how is this any different from how lines are already operating? Do we really think "Vegas" is acting in any way other than their own best interest? Since when was gambling an even keel industry? Let's be real here.
August 9th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Your last sentence is how lines work in the first place. Also, truly lopsided lines don't last for very long, because bookmakers change them very quickly - there isn't much opportunity for "all the money to come in on one side."
I feel like most people on here learned about gambling like 30 years ago and still think it's a couple of casinos in Vegas setting one spread and one points total per game, in isolation from the rest of the market, and it can't change until the newspaper is published the next day. With online and mobile gaming, markets update continuously and there are hundreds of markets per game - alternate lines, player props, team totals, first half totals, first quarter moneylines, etc. The closest analogy is the the stock market, but with far more inefficiencies since the amount of money is smaller and the books aren't connected the way banks are.
I assume this is more of a branding deal. Penn Natl will run the casino, it just has ESPN's name on it and they won't have any control of the actual casino business, other than uses of the ESPN brand. It's not like Portnoy or PFT Commenter were setting lines when it was Barstool-branded.
I think there's naturally a concern about manipulation because of the branded connections but I assume Penn is still the one setting the lines. Otherwise, if ESPN is setting the lines and then also telling people how to bet that would likely be in violation of gaming laws in various states. And gaming laws tend to be pretty intensely enforced, so ESPN wouldn't risk running afoul of them.
But at the same time, it's definitely going to be disconcerting to see betting lines sponsored by ESPN pop up while they talk about them on TV.
Does ESPN claim to "do" journalism? I thought they gave that up years ago in the pivot from sports to entertainment that was supposed to save its profitability.
Far as I know Vegas sets the lines. I do agree it's not copa to have analysts who can sway people one way or the other.
Damn, half of ESPN's College Game Day is about spreads.
edit: I just noticed someone up thread said that Penn would set the lines. So that crisis averted.
August 8th, 2023 at 11:28 PM ^
ESPN shows how desperately it needs more revenue.
I know you have 5 thousand up upvotes but this is an asinine take. Bill Simmons had been giving bad bets for 15 years and only driving traffic to ESPN and now his own site. If he didn't suck at guessing the lines he he might a tiny bit more traffic. If he wasn't a shitty better he might actually move lines. Guess what? Lots of people move lines now, mostly sharps you've never heard of.
If you were smart enough to catch on that ESPN talking heads were so brilliant they were moving lines you would be smart enough to bet with them and then against them once ESPN adjusted the lines?
Please explain to me where the problem is unless you don't understand how betting works.
I'll add that FOX has had FOX Bets in place since 2019 which was partnered with FanDuel - similar to ESPN's partnership with Penn. Neither network sets the lines.
Fox recently announced that they were shutting down their betting platform due to low demand.
It'll be tough sledding for ESPN/Penn to gain market share with FanDuel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Casesar's already dominating the online sports betting marketplace. I'm sure Penn feels like they have a much broader audience marketing their betting service through ESPN than they did with Barstool.
August 9th, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
Every piece of wagering advice I've seen on TV is hot garbage. It's always about what the talking head "thinks will happen", or "who is hot", or "Lebron performs well in primetime" and never focuses on the actual line and value - they treat it like what the bet is paying out is irrelevant, which is completely opposite of any successful gambling strategy.
Successful sports bettors care way more about value than what they think will happen. I (and all casual baseball fans) think Shohei Ohtani is awesome, but you don't take Over 6.5 strikeouts tonight blindly on any book because you think it will happen, you take it because one book will give you far more value, say -120 compared to the rest of the market at -145. Otherwise, in the long run, the vig and house will eventually win. Conversely, if another book is giving Under 6.5 strikeouts at +160 in the same scenario, that is the better play regardless of how good you think Ohtani is or will perform.
Barstool content is so laughably bad over the past 2-3 years - even by their previous standards. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe this brings some change there.
Objectively speaking, Portnoy may have pulled off one of the greatest business deals we've seen in as long as I can remember. Guy sells is business for a couple hundred million and then buys back 100% for $0 while also maintaining stock ownership in $Penn after the ESPN deal? How does that even happen?
August 9th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
Nope, he's a pig so we can't give him credit for anything he's ever done.
Glad to see there's no involvement by the Ivy League school commonly referred to as "Penn".
My first thought when I read "PENN" was the school was somehow starting a sportsbook with ESPN. Might not be a bad idea for UPenn to do that and diversify revenue streams.
I was wondering along those lines too. Then I thought maybe PENN was what we were going to start calling (We Are) Penn State University, a la Ohio State --> "Ohio". Now that I've read the original post, I'm glad to see neither was the case and not at all troubled by the fact that I have no effing idea what it's actually about.
All I know about betting is everyone is always winning but the companies people bet with are all ridiculously profitable. My economics classes are all lies or one of these groups of people ain't that bright.
Never really understood betting myself, and I never took Econ. So I pay no attention to the lines and never watch any games with $$$ at stake. From a distance it seems like a very select group of gambling 'professionals' or whatever you call them might have enough of a handle on things to consistently make money but everyone else loses. Am I missing something?
I can't wait to see 74 ESPN Bet commercials every weekend this fall.
I can’t wait to watch a game on the ESPN app and get ads for ESPN, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and more all in a single break.
Don't worry, they'll mix in enough Flo, Lemu Emu & Doug, the Farmers chode, and Mayham to maximize our annoyance.
Thankfully none of our games are on ESPN or ABC.
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!
Rumor is that ESPN might bid on some of the new “inventory” created by the OR and WA additions. I have heard like 4th choice of games each week if they win the bid…
At least this way they would have to at least mention the B1G on game day each Saturday.
August 8th, 2023 at 11:07 PM ^
That might be a way for Oregon and UW to receive more than the $30 million.
I feel this is somewhat of a COI with their deal with the SEC. I'm sure someone on this Blog smarter than myself could explain if true.
$PENN up nicely in AH trading
I'm suddenly thirsty for something with orange juice, possibly a Screwdriver, or to keep it in season, maybe a Fuzzy Navel.
Don't let this guy make you the drink. He might put something in it.
I’m still sick that I bought it st $5.06 and sold it two weeks later around $12 during 2020….made $3k instead of $50k had I held to its ATH. We all have those stories, but I can’t help but think about it every time I see $PENN!
Not unexpected. ESPN jumping into the rather lucrative gambling business.
Serious question ---- cigarette companies aren't allowed to advertise, because their product is proven to be addictive and, well, life-threatening.
Will society ever ask whether there should be advertising limits on gambling businesses? Their product often is addictive --- and it's life-threatning in a way too. Threatening financial stability, people's responsibiltiies to provide for their family first, etc etc.
I'm not a prude. I used to gamble like crazy. I don't anymore, but I still do Vegas once a year and will have fun with a few hundred bucks at poker tables and the sports book.
But, man, gambling ads are simply everywhere now. You can't escape it, and a lot of people lose a lot of $$$ and portions of their lives to it.
If I was dictator I'd return the country to the days when the only place gambling was legal was Nevada. I have a good friend whose elderly FIL has been spending a large portion of the retirement funds he and his wife have accumulated in casinos. He's clearly addicted.
August 8th, 2023 at 10:07 PM ^
I think it goes even deeper than advertising. To me, it's not much different from the way credit card companies used to aggressively market to college students.
Now you have sportsbooks not only directly marketing to college students, but actually doing so as the "Official Partner" of a college/university (e.g., the deals Caesars sportsbook had with MSU, LSU, etc.). Hell, students were getting broadcast emails with promotional offers to bet through Caesars. It's pretty shitty that schools were making millions on dollars from these arrangements while knowing the potential risks to their students' financial security.
August 8th, 2023 at 10:45 PM ^
Good call on Caesars/MSU ....... I had forgotten about that, but "shitty" is a very appropriate word.
A tangential anecdote. A few years ago, I was chatting w/ my then-boss. She once ran Performance Marketing campaigns in Mobile Gaming. She's also the type of human who has a soul: she didn't do that for long, she told me it was a "predatory" business model.
At the time, I didn't really understand where she was coming from. But I got some exposure to mobile games 1-2 years later, and now I 100% fully understand. It's the same business model as the gambling apps --- get them in the door, get them coming back, get their credit card number, monetize them forever. And the younger the better, because the higher the LTV.
August 8th, 2023 at 10:44 PM ^
August 8th, 2023 at 11:03 PM ^
Your "actually kills you" argument is fair. But ALL these guys are marketing to children and/or not-yet-financially-independent young adults. All of them!
Dylan Mulvaney a few months ago, and I swear I'm not going political ----- for all the discussion about that, nearly everyone ignored that Bud Light was using an influencer, who, the majority of her huge social media audience was under 21! To market beer! Wait, isn't that the real issue?!?!
I guess marketing is what it is (and I'm in the field). But I hate that an acceptable "strategy" is "market things, even vices, to folks as young as possible, because they have the highest possible upside (highest LTV)."
Great thread on Twitter on how Barstool got smoked in the deal. https://twitter.com/adamry_n/status/1689043980590137344?s=46&t=eQp_-fE_jDj-M6ZVzbFq8Q
Damn. Barstool has all those gambling personalities and now they can’t accept any gambling site advertising revenue or open their own sports book. That non complete is tough. I can see why Portnoy got it for free. It’s worthless.
August 8th, 2023 at 11:40 PM ^
They already made $500 million off the sale to Penn. Dave has already said he has no plans to sell, and will hand the company off down the road if need be. Assuming they aren't regularly running at a net loss, I don't see how they got smoked in the slightest.
Definitely a great deal for Dave to completely monetize his investment when he sold to Penn. He also still has a lot of PENN stock. I just see all the barstool employees celebrating this deal also. I'm not sure they understand what's coming without a direct or indirect link to gambling sites.
I mean they got 550 million for 3 years of advertising a penn sports book and the downside they now can’t take a 25 million dollar a year check from fan duel. That doesn’t seem like a bad deal to me. Penn just wrote them a 300 million check in January that they had the right to walk away from
August 9th, 2023 at 12:21 AM ^
Meh.
I used to gamble in my younger years, (when i was broke) , i work way toooo hard for my schillings now.
dropping allcaps “PENN” into a tweet, as if anyone but sports business doofuses like darren rovell have the foggiest notion of they are, is so very, very rovell. he’s an utterly disposable, ignoreable foot-licker, but i’ll say this - the man knows his schtick.
Watching ESPN2 is already annoying. They take up 1/4 of the screen with betting lines.