OT: Electric Vehicles
I am not an engineer, but I know that UofM had a pretty strong automotive engineering program back in the day. There also have been posts here the last couple years about self-driving cars. Like most Americans, I have not yet moved to an all-electric vehicle, although that day is coming. We own a Prius, and it sure beats the Honda Pilot for gas mileage.
I have seen much more on electric vehicles in the media, and in TV ads, and on the road. To wit,
- Yesterday in the New York Times there was a piece highlighting the surge in sales of all electric vehicles. LINK: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-vehicles.html?searchResultPosition=1
- Watching the Olympics, and pretty much any TV, there are ads and more ads for electric vehicles.
- Simply driving on the turnpike between Chicago and Cleveland, I've seen a vast increase in the number of charging stations, and I certainly am seeing more Tesla branded cars on the road. I personally know someone working for Rivian here in Illinois.
However, I've also seen several contrarian things.
- One video segment I watched suggests that the energy and raw material it takes to build an all electric vehicle wipes out much of the gain in reducing emissions.
- Another suggest that the cost of replacement batteries is so high that it will create problems 8 years after purchase, with a high cost to replace batteries not holding a charge any more.
- And I also am given to understand that the recycling of batteries is a difficult process, and what to do with old batteries will be a difficult problem.
- Lastly, there is also a question about what to do when the energy grid goes down. What happens if you live in an area where tornados have decimated communities? How do you charge your car when there all the charging stations are wiped out?
I'd love to hear from automotive engineers, from environmental engineers, from people working for GM or Ford or Tesla or Rivian or someone else in the business. And I'd be perfectly happy with links to good long form journalism pieces about electric vehicles. Given the long wait, and the high cost, I'm guessing I won't do anything any time soon. But I'd like to start thinking more about this.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
100% of the blame goes on the NIMBYs
February 10th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Did the NIMBYs cause the. &14 billion cost over runs at the Vogtile Plant in Georgia or the cost overruns that caused the VC Summer plant in South Carolina to be canceled after billions in cost over runs?
February 11th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
No, but the cost overruns are directly attributable to those trying to stop nuclear power at all costs with/and government red tape.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
Thorium has huge potential as a safer nuclear alternative. It is currently a problem radioactive waste product in places like Florida where phosphate mining is common. India is investing heavily, but in the US anything nuclear is a tough sell politically. It is estimated by some that enough waste thorium is sitting in Florida right now to meet the US electricity needs for 200 years. That is probably overstating things, but the potential is vast.
February 11th, 2022 at 1:15 AM ^
I saw both a Lucid Air and Polestar (by Volvo) at the same shopping center. The Lucid is amazing and the tech seems incredible. It's faster than many a Ferrari and Lamborghini. It'll even have reclining seats the back seat available in the future. If you are rich, the cheapest model will be $70,000.
The Polestar was really cool and seems like a better quality Tesla.
Tesla's quality leaves a lot to be desired. Tesla feels like you are settling on quality to go electric now. Lucid and Polestar would not feel like settling.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Funny but true story. Back in 1991, UM Auto engineering professor said Hydrogen cars would be a big thing by early 2001. I know because I interviewed him for a class of mine.
And I was excited because I like hydrogen and still do. Unfortunately, he was wrong and the distribution and manufacturing part of it never materialized.
And lo and behold....WSJ article today regarding hydrogen
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hydrogen-powered-cars-11644519367
might work without getting the paywall problem.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^
Get your tin hat on. My hometown (suburb of Columbus) had a man around 1989 who invented a water powered car. Supposedly, some higher up poisoned him and killed him for fear it would disrupt the money in oil. Stephen Meyer, no relation to the cheater.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
bitcoin fixes this, i hear.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
Looking at the numbers, "sales are surging":
source: https://www.ev-volumes.com/
EV sales are increasing primarily due to the carrot and stick approach taken by national and local governments. Carrots are the generous incentives given to EV buyers:
https://egear.asia/subsidies-china/
Sticks are the mandates applied to vehicle manufacturers that force increased EV production:
https://insideevs.com/news/430197/china-nev-credit-ratios-2021-2023/
February 11th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Excellent video, thanks.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^
Good reminder that for most of the world, gasoline prices are a lot higher than in the US. I know it's politically a no-go zone, but we really should have a higher gas tax.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
That sentiment is probably just as popular as was when a former Energy Secretary endorsed it:
https://thenewamerican.com/steven-chu-retracts-previous-call-for-higher-gas-prices/
February 11th, 2022 at 3:36 AM ^
Gas taxes are tricky because they're regressive and have major secondary effects. For example, doubling the gas tax makes long-haul trucking more expensive, which is still the primary mover of goods in the US - like, say, food. Those costs get passed on to the consumer, so at the same time someone making minimum wage is having to pay more to get to/from work, they have to pay more for all the necessities as well.
I don't pretend to have an answer for this, but it's not just politics that keeps gas taxes low.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
We don’t need an increased gas tax, we need to stop subsidizing the carbon-fuel industry and make them pay the true cost of production/consumption (roads, pipelines, infrastructure, military industrial complex that secures cheap oil).
Similarly, we need to force the plastics industry to pay the true cost of production/consumption, which is recycling and environmental cleanup.
The true cost of production of any good is not measured only by the “sticker” but on the long-term cost to the environment. Producers who are tasked w/taking a product back at the end of its useful life will build into their design re-use and recycling. Those who don’t should bear the cost on the front end.
Under the current structure we collectively pay the cost and subsidize environmental degradation.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
I'm not rushing in yet says the grumpy old guy. I would rather just have a small car that gets great mileage. I think we need some more battery tech improvements before they hit the prime time. We need regular range and better cold weather range.
The hybrids make more sense to me. My son in Austin has a accord hybrid and it is a beautiful car. Yes, he LOVES Austin the boom town.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
The challenge with a hybrid is that you don’t get the maintenance benefits. Instead of a simpler car, you get a more complicated one.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:49 PM ^
I live in a small town in Alaska with probably the highest concentration of Nissan Leafs - probably the cheapest EV. We have about 50+/- miles of road, and smart charging infrastructure scattered around. But electricity is cheap since we have a large hydropower source, so makes sense to charge. I bought a hybrid Prius because they have such a great maintenance record, and I don't have to worry about breaking down after forgetting to charge night before. Plus, I can drive the car out of town on a road trip when it suits me. Lastly, the Prius was made with a non-Lithium based hybrid battery - which was a major selling point at the time since Lithium-Ion was basically non-recyclable and considered Haz-Waste.
The movie "Planet of the Humans" really dives into alternative energy realities, and comparitively it's difficult to resolve consumptive waste streams between Solar/Wind/Petroleum/Nuclear. Kind of depressing actually, but I'm hoping someone discovers Fusion reactors that will turn my spent coffee grounds into Hydrogen!
February 10th, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^
My neighbor bought a Tesla Model S in 2018 and it spent more time in the shop than it did in his garage. Also, the interior build quality was not good.
He drives a Lexus hybrid SUV now and is much happier.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
Your neighbor is an extreme outlier. Generally speaking, there is very little maintenance on an EV, particularly a Tesla. There aren't many parts that can break.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:23 PM ^
Tesla has a fabulous power train. But their assembly is terrible. A couple engineer friends at GM claim (I have no proof to cite, just restating their claim) "we could never get away with the new car quality Tesla has." Tesla owners are amazingly forgiving. They have a very loyal fan base.
My engineer friends claim Tesla assembly is on par with GM and Ford in the 1970s. Perhaps that is overstating, and I am sure Tesla is improving. But saying "There aren't many parts that can break" completely ignores how complex any working automobile is. Teslas are known for having many problems, such as finding the car unresponsive when entering.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:09 PM ^
Your GM friend is correct. We test all of the competitor vehicles and we have more troubles keeping the teslas running. And now the software in them is not nearly as good as it was in older teslas.
February 11th, 2022 at 8:04 AM ^
Well I'd rather put up with minor annoyances than general bad design, which has been the modus operandi of the big Three, and waste money on slightly changing look and interior.
February 10th, 2022 at 10:55 PM ^
I know several Tesla owners and each has a rant (or two) they will regularly offer. Very poor quality according to them.
February 11th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Only one data point but I have been a Tesla owner since 2018 and I will never go back to gas. There are a few quirks but I have taken my car into the shop one time in almost four years. I did have the mobile service come to my work and repair one other item (suspension arm) in that time. Other than that, just one set of new tires.
They are not perfect but my limited experience with EVs so far exceeds my previous cars that I will not consider going back. The driving experience is so much better and the fit and finish on mine is probably better than the BMW I had previously.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
My friends who own Teslas also won't go back to ICE as their around town errand cars. They just wish Elon & Co. would get it right for initial quality issues. They do take the gasoline SUV out on road trips because refueling is much more convenient and location predicatble.
I declined to purchase a Telsa, but we currently enjoy both the Mini EV and Mach E GT for local errands. Road trips to visit family, etc.? The gasoline cars get used.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
My interactions are more with the consequences of having EV chargers than anything else, but we find ourselves making a lot of spot upgrades to existing infrastructure - both overhead and underground - because of the proliferation of chargers in some areas, especially in and around Ann Arbor. If you are getting one installed and it is metered separately as they are in our territory, check out the need for potential upgrades to your house service as well.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
We are outfitting our house with the capacity for solar panels (to be installed at a later date) and I'm wondering about the power outage question. If the grid goes down for some reason, and I have an EV charger in my garage, will the solar panels provide the power for it? Probably a question for the company installing the panels, but it would be nice to be self-sufficient in case of an emergency. We don't currently have an EV (or a charger in our garage) but we are moving in that direction.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
If you have a grid tied system a power outage will cause your house/charger to lose power. If you want to maintain power in a power outage you would need to have an off grid solar installation or a battery back up system that stores excess energy produced by the solar panels.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:26 PM ^
Solar panels don’t work in a blackout (usually)
When the grid loses power, your solar panels will stop working too.
This isn’t because your panels can’t generate power, but rather they are designed to automatically disconnect from the grid in a power failure. This is to prevent power lines from being energized when the utility company expects them to be off. Otherwise, utility workers repairing power lines could be electrocuted.
Solar panels can continue working for you in a blackout, but it requires either a battery system or an inverter designed to supply emergency power to your home, such as the SMA Sunny Boy.
https://www.thesolarnerd.com/blog/how-solar-connect-to-grid/
February 11th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
That or buy a generator.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:19 PM ^
It depends on how you are storing your solar energy. But generally speaking, you can absolutely power your EV exclusively with solar power.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
I've opened my wallet to hybrid tech but not interested in all electric. 4 months of the year it's below freezing where I am, from my understanding the all EV batteries life shortens in cold climates. The hybrid warranty sits at 10 years/ 150k miles. Getting 37mpg out of my awd toyota van is pretty nice. I'm not against an EV future but I think the current battery route isn't where it's at. Even my hybrid has me timid.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
I have a 2018 chevy volt. I typically get in the high 50s for battery range in the summer and about 40 miles of battery range in the cold Michigan winters. The nice thing about the volt is that it has a standard ICE engine that kicks on when the battery runs out.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
Interesting questions. I'm also considering an EV for my next car, though I'm trying to squeeze every last mile of use out of my current car before I need to get a new one (I'm at about 112,000 miles on my current car).
I think EVs are definitely here to stay, though it's tough to say whether they will eventually replace gasoline-powered vehicles altogether or remain confined to certain niches. In addition to the concerns you mentioned about power availability, the question of whether or not EVs can ever be used for freight and cargo transport is possibly the most critical factor. Semi-trucks are gas guzzlers, but they can travel around 2,000 miles on a single fill-up. The EV with the longest range (the new Lucid Air, per the EPA) maxes out at around 500 miles. Can a reasonably-sized EV battery be built for a semi-truck that will have a 2000-mile range and yet be easy to charge quickly, efficiently, and economically? Time will tell.
I wouldn't give much weight to the idea that the increased energy and raw materials needed to build EVs will wipe out any environmental gains achieved from their use. As production volume grows, the manufacturing process will become more and more efficient, and companies will figure out better ways to design and build EVs (case in point: in the 1950's, cars were a lot costlier to manufacture and transport because they were still building the bodies out of solid metal). However, I do agree that battery disposal will be a problem. Not sure what's being done about that.
Relatedly, EVs coupled with the rise of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are already starting to strain the power grid. That's one of the next big problems that will need to be solved in the decades to come.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^
You raised some good points. BEV semi-trucks still don't make sense. The battery weight alone would create axle loads so high that most public highways would buckle sooner than they do today (and I really don't want more potholes in Michigan, thanks).
Battery recycling into alternative uses is currently being explored. Lots of problems to solve, still, but a few interesting ideas I've seen, including backup power walls for homes and businesses. They don't have the cycle frequency of cars and trucks, so that might be an outstanding future use.
The energy grid is the big and open question. More capacity will surely be needed, and nuclear is probably the most realistic. Hydroelectric, wind, and solar all have as many (or more) drawbacks as nuclear.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:53 PM ^
Multiple companies are selling electric semis today. They don’t make sense for interstate trucking, but plenty of companies are starting to use them for last mile delivery.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:44 PM ^
Last mile delivery is a great use case for BEVs. Routes are often known in advance and can be planned, recharging can happen back at a Distribution Center, etc. Lots of models already introduced - or will be soon. The semi-truck is probably best suited to something like a fuel cell stack powered by compressed hydrogen.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
"what to do when the energy grid goes down. What happens if you live in an area where tornados have decimated communities? How do you charge your car when there all the charging stations are wiped out?"
This would be pretty much just like what would happen to the gas stations, too, so probably not a huge issue.
The biggest issues are expense to purchase, time to charge, having a grid that can support all the charging, longevity of batteries, and battery pack capacity (range).
Expense of the battery packs is one reason you aren't seeing $25,000 EVs with a 350-400 mile range, and that are comparable to what you get in an ICE vehicle at that price point. Most EV cars get about 3-4 miles per kwH. So you need an 80-100 kwH pack to achieve that; at over $100 per kwH. That basically has to be directly tacked onto the price of the vehicle - which is why the Chevy Bolt was like a nice Chevy Cruze and cost $35,000-$40,000. They need to solve that. Under a load, it gets worse. Which is why you aren't likely to see people towing fifth wheels very far very soon - I've seen real world towing tests that result in sub 1 mile per kwH.
Time to charge. The faster the charge, the more juice you need. Consider that 350kwH charging is the equivalent of the full amount of current available to 7.3 homes (most are 48kwH). That's a lot. And if you have millions of people charging every day - as in a good sized region - the grid needs to be able to support that. Right now, I'm not so sure it could. And you not only have to create that power, you have to get it to the charging stations. A lot of infrastructure is needed.
I'm sure they'll continue to develop better/higher capacity batteries, so range and longevity will probably be resolved within a few years.
Right now, we are not there yet, so EVs are a niche product for folks who have extra disposable income and a backup ICE.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:33 PM ^
If the grid goes down, you can't pump gas, either. I had that realization when I talked a friend who lives in Texas. Many gas stations were offline because there was no electricity to operate the pumps. We're all pretty much equally at risk.
As for my home charger, it's the same voltage and current draw as my electric dryer. Sure, it takes almost all night to go from 5% charge to 80%, but overnight, who cares?
February 10th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
You could theoretically use a generator to run the pumps. Would need a hell of a generator to charge an EV...
February 10th, 2022 at 11:49 PM ^
Nope. My EV uses a wall charger that draws 40 amps at 220V. Basically, it's the same circuit as an electric dryer.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:34 AM ^
Pulling 40 amps @ 220/240 will be a significant portion of a 7000 watt standby genset. Need to leave some headroom for furnace blowers, refrigerator, cooking surfaces, hot water, a few lights, etc..
Whole house genset? Different story, yes, but I always unplug my EVSEs when using my genset.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^
Right now the move to electric vehicles isn’t doing much for the environment, but that could change. The vehicles are charged on the grid that is still mostly from fossil fuels. Basically EVs just swap out gasoline for coal or natural gas. Nuclear likely has to be part of the solution. It’s clean and cheap, and the newer generation nuclear plants are far safer than historic models. The newer generations can even use the waste as energy. Michael Moore has an interesting documentary out called Planet of the Humans which is critical of the green energy industry. Most of the green technology out now isn’t as efficient as we are lead to believe. Hopefully we develop fusion soon.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
I watched that Moore piece. Pretty damning of the biofuels like the wood pellet stuff.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
I saw that too, but there are articled debunking a lot of it or explaining why parts are misleading. I'm sure you can find some easily. One problem is yes the electrical grid still largely uses fossil fuels, but it's not 100% fossil fuel like gas and it still overall burns less fossil fuel even if electricity generation was 100% fossil fuels.
The documentary basically argues we need to stop growing and having babies, which is just not at all realistic. We need to work on making solutions like EVs better and more efficient and solving problems like storage, carbon sequestration, etc., not going back to the horse and buggy. Fusion would be great, but it's definitely not happening soon, certainly not soon enough in great enough quantities to avert climate change.
Agreed on nuclear. It's maddening that so many countries are shutting down their plants. It's now costing Germany geopolitically as well because they're so dependent on Russian gas. I read an interesting article about new nuclear plant designs. They can build much smaller ones underground that should be safer, but I think none have still been built so there are questions about it. I don't know much about it. Also, fun fact I learned a few weeks ago. Something like 75% of energy use in France is from nuclear (not sure if that includes cars), the highest in the world. That's a shit ton.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
Unfortunately nuclear has never really lived up to its promise. Look at the Vogtile plant in Georgia, it was supposed to come online in 2016 for unit 3 and 2017 for unit 4. Latest projections are for it to come online in 2022 and 2023. Costs were originally projected at $14 billion. We are now up to $28 billion.
Hopefully small modular nuclear reactors will be different. We shall see.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:30 AM ^
Seems like cherry-picking. Everything constructed in America goes way overbudget. It's a mess and really needs to be fixed. Just looking at Wikipedia's list of nuclear construction, it seems it's going fine in other countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_reactors
A lot of those are old, but if you look at China, they've opened a crap ton of plants in the last few years and it looks like they all take roughly 5 to 7 years from when construction started. India's plants taking 5 to 10 years. Pakistan opened 1 last year that started in 2013. Russia opened a few in recent years that took about 10 years. South Korea has opened like 4 that took 7 to 10 years. I don't know if those were all way overrun on costs, but I doubt it if you look at how well China has built high-speed rail and South Korea builds basically anything.
February 11th, 2022 at 7:25 AM ^
Since Vogtile is the only new nuclear plant built in the US this century it doesn’t seem like cherry picking, VC Summer was started but cancelled after cost over runs. Two projects this century, both fiascos.
February 11th, 2022 at 8:08 AM ^
We have no nuclear construction interest to draw experience from, so of course costs will go high. Couple that lack of experience with NIMBY and environmental reviews/approvals that literally take years (often 5-10 years for approval), and planning/construction timelines are going to be really long - and the longer, the more expensive. Also, product requirements for the industry are impossibly more stringent than any other power generation method.
IMO, nuclear power generation has proven itself safe by any measurement standard. The amount of plants running safely around the world proves this point. And its not just commercial power generation plants - militaries across the globe run thousands of nuc power plants. Right now, Norfolk, VA has ~40 nuclear power plants - depending on what's in port. Not a single one of them have ever had a major breakdown.
I really wish some billionaire (looking at you two, Jeff and Elon) would just throw a few billion $$$ at building one of the molten-salt reactors on a commercial scale. Just prove it out. Get one working and go from there.