OT: Electric Vehicles

Submitted by StephenRKass on February 10th, 2022 at 6:47 PM

I am not an engineer, but I know that UofM had a pretty strong automotive engineering program back in the day. There also have been posts here the last couple years about self-driving cars. Like most Americans, I have not yet moved to an all-electric vehicle, although that day is coming. We own a Prius, and it sure beats the Honda Pilot for gas mileage.

I have seen much more on electric vehicles in the media, and in TV ads, and on the road. To wit,

  • Yesterday in the New York Times there was a piece highlighting the surge in sales of all electric vehicles. LINK:  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-vehicles.html?searchResultPosition=1
  • Watching the Olympics, and pretty much any TV, there are ads and more ads for electric vehicles.
  • Simply driving on the turnpike between Chicago and Cleveland, I've seen a vast increase in the number of charging stations, and I certainly am seeing more Tesla branded cars on the road. I personally know someone working for Rivian here in Illinois.

However, I've also seen several contrarian things.

  • One video segment I watched suggests that the energy and raw material it takes to build an all electric vehicle wipes out much of the gain in reducing emissions.
  • Another suggest that the cost of replacement batteries is so high that it will create problems 8 years after purchase, with a high cost to replace batteries not holding a charge any more.
  • And I also am given to understand that the recycling of batteries is a difficult process, and what to do with old batteries will be a difficult problem.
  • Lastly, there is also a question about what to do when the energy grid goes down. What happens if you live in an area where tornados have decimated communities? How do you charge your car when there all the charging stations are wiped out?

I'd love to hear from automotive engineers, from environmental engineers, from people working for GM or Ford or Tesla or Rivian or someone else in the business. And I'd be perfectly happy with links to good long form journalism pieces about electric vehicles. Given the long wait, and the high cost, I'm guessing I won't do anything any time soon. But I'd like to start thinking more about this.

blue in dc

February 10th, 2022 at 11:19 PM ^

Renewables provided more power than either coal or nuclear in 2020.   The split between fossil and non-fossil was about 60/40.   Even at that level, an EV emits less GHGs than a traditional IC engine aa old coal units continue to retire and more renewables are built   70% of the new generation built in 2021 was renewable.   

4th phase

February 11th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^

Sure but even if you charged your EV with only coal power, it would still be more efficient. Because the power plant and transmission system is more efficient than a car engine. Power generation will always be better when done at scale. You basically are trading a commercial power plant for a mini power plant that you drive around. 

1VaBlue1

February 10th, 2022 at 7:46 PM ^

There are several things in your post that represent outdated thoughts.  To wit:

  • One video segment I watched suggests that the energy and raw material it takes to build an all electric vehicle wipes out much of the gain in reducing emissions.

This is not true, and I don't think it ever has been.  The only difference between an ICE vehicle and an EV is the engine/battery.  The rest is the same metals and plastics.  Making a battery doesn't take any more raw material than making an ICE and its fuel.  

  • Another suggest that the cost of replacement batteries is so high that it will create problems 8 years after purchase, with a high cost to replace batteries not holding a charge any more.

This hasn't been true for a decade.  Sure, 15 years ago, the first hybrids had big issues as the batteries got older.  But battery technology has improved greatly - tremendous strides - in the last 10 years, and it continues to get even better.  

  • And I also am given to understand that the recycling of batteries is a difficult process, and what to do with old batteries will be a difficult problem.

Same answer as above - you'll sell the car before replacing batteries or having to think about recycling them.  But those processes will come with improved technology, also.  Tell me - how does one recycle ICE emissions?

  • Lastly, there is also a question about what to do when the energy grid goes down. What happens if you live in an area where tornados have decimated communities? How do you charge your car when there all the charging stations are wiped out?

LOL!  What do you do when all the gas stations are wiped out?  You operate on your full tank for a few days until infrastructure gets back up and running.

Yo_Blue

February 10th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^

Does anyone, besides the OP, think that ICE vehicles can refill during a power outage? The pumps run on electricity. I've never fallen for that argument 

HighBeta

February 10th, 2022 at 10:25 PM ^

I keep quite a few 5 gallon cans of premium fuel for cars, snowthrowers, gensets, etc.. I haven't found a way to keep 150 miles of EV range in a portable "can" yet. Probably a great business idea, though.

Also, our power companies bring hospitals and essential businesses, like filling stations, back online first - well before residential neighborhoods.

reshp1

February 10th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^

I work in the industry (chargers). Battery wear out is pretty overblown. There's people on 300k miles with no noticeable difference in range. Recycling isn't so prevalent as much as reusing. The used packs mostly go toward energy storage for other applications (like solar). As far as net environmental benefit, it depends on where your energy comes from. At the end of the day, it's a fledgling technology that will get better with widespread adoption. Absolutely no one in the auto industry believes ICEs are the way forward. 

ottomatic

February 10th, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^

I own an EV and I follow the issue closely. I see a lot of concern with calculating the full lifecycle cost of an EV but I'm not seeing similar attempts to calculate the real lifecycle costs of ICE vehicles and the externalities associated with fossil fuels. 

Using an online EV cost calculator, one that even factored in what time of day I'm most likely to charge, it indicated that my Ford Mach-e has an impact equivalent to 88mpg. Also, lots of evidence coming online that @ 8 years there's significant life left in a properly maintained battery.  

 

pz

February 10th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^

We couldn't commit to all-electric, but got lucky last year when searching for a bigger car and landed a Volvo XC-90 Recharge that is a good combo solution for the present-day.

It only gets about 20 miles in pure electric mode, but can be used in hybrid mode and gets good gas mileage for a bigger car even when you're not on the battery. The cold definitely has an effect, and it does kick on the gas engine once the temps get down below maybe 15.

Live in Chicago and our commute isn't much since we live and work in the city, so we've actually only filled the gas tank 2-3 times since we got it in August & haven't noticed a meaningful increase in electric bills with nightly charging.

Like all cars, it'll probably be dated in 5 years, definitely 10, but we are really happy with the decision in the meantime since we need the flexibility for road trips & like day-to-day electric as an option.

Carpetbagger

February 11th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^

I think hybrids are great. I don't understand the reticence to hybrids as the car of choice for those of us where pure electrics don't make sense.

With your car my wife could go all week without using a drop of gas, charge it at home every night and we could still use it on our road trips to our parents that don't go anywhere near charging stations.

(I'm not paying 65k base for one, but the concept works).

jmstranger

February 11th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^

I have a 2008 Ford Escape Hybrid. Just bought it last summer. I really like it. I do wish it could run more on the electric engine but I get the battery is tiny in it. It's pretty fun tooling around a parking lot in all electric. I definitely see the appeal of EVs. I'd probably make an EV my next new purchase if it weren't for the price

HighBeta

February 10th, 2022 at 9:09 PM ^

Disclamers: one of the things I do is supply specialty machinery/parts to electricity producers for the world's fossil based power grid. I am, therefore, financially biased towards IC power production, i.e., I derive income from fossil fuel use. My junior partner is a former employee in and current expert in the power equipment business. He is brilliant and a strong enabler of our engineering and business success. 

Furthermore: I am acutely aware that my commercial customer base is being forced to shrink which, honestly, is the right thing to have happen for my offspring's future on this planet. 

Lastly: I am a strong lobbyist for a *well planned* shift away from fossil power. Failing to plan well and rationally - kills people. See the recent debacle with the Texas power grid freeze. 

‐-----------

EVs *are* relatively expensive to buy, fun to drive, an expensive pain in the a$$ for which to prepare, and limited in their overall usefulness --- but the "tax math" to purchase a pair of EVs can be financially compelling: Uncle Sam kinda gave me a BOGO free deal. See far below. 

If you work from home or close to home and/or are a low overall mileage driver, they fill a purpose very conveniently. Keep an ICE car (or two) available for road trips, etc. Yes, the econimics of doing that are kind of absurd.

You will need 240 volt circuits in your garage(s), which may require upgrades to your main and/or aux panels. Materials are more than a few bucks and electricians don't work for free, if you can retain them. You will also need to find, purchase and wait to have delivered (supply shortages, of course) wall mounted (probably) charging stations, aka EVSEs.

You will get up to a thousand dollar tax credit (not write off, a credit) for this "home infrastructure". There is also a $7500 tax credit, per EV purchased, model ddepenent. Note, this means that buying 2 EVs and installling EVSEs provides you with a $16K tax credit, which shields $45K +/- in pretax income if you are in the top tax bracket. Ergo, that second EV is, if it is a low end, short range model, shielded in its entire cost in pretax income. Yes, absolutely, it is genuinely a rich man's transportation mode. NB, I didn`t write the regs, I just used them to my advantage. I am sure this situation will chafe some people on this board. I will just type to them, in advance, that we should simply "agree to disagree", again. :-)

My EV range is fairly limited, especially in cold weather. EVs are still somewhat primitive in design, hugely fun to drive and very convenient to "refill" at home once your daily tasks are completed. They are not luxurious. I have no idea how I will feel several years down the road as the batteries fade somewhat.

I have yet to use a fast DC charging outside my home. Again, I kept my ICE vehicles for long range road trips plus old man grins.

Ponder your lifestyle and your needs, plan/sweat every damn detail, run your numbers. Repeat these processes, this time using others to find what you've missed. Execute. Prepare to giggle like a kid when your car hums like a kiddee car rolling down your driveway. Prepare for some people to flip you off, others to give you thumbs up. There is very little middle ground.

Enjoy.

blue in dc

February 11th, 2022 at 7:39 AM ^

It is totally accurate.   The biggest causes of the blackout were failure to weatherize generation assets (mostly gas, but yes, some wind turbines) and natural gas supply issues.

“While Texas Republicans were quick to blame renewable energy during the storm — and have continued to target renewable energy for reform during this year’s legislative session — a recently updated report on the causes of generator outages during the week of Feb. 14 show that the most significant cause of the low power supply to the grid came from natural gas plants shutting down or reducing electricity production due to cold weather, equipment failures and natural gas shortages.”

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/28/texas-power-outage-wind/

HighBeta

February 11th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^

 

Blue? My partner was one of the team of engineering experts flown in to review the issues, he was on the ground literally touching the issues. I've been on the many calls concerning same. My company is selling the components to the operators who are handling the capacity re-add.

Regardless of the media narrative, the regulators had shut down or hamstrung too many LM6K NG plants, by intent, by either removing all financial viability for the equipment to remain on standby or terminating their agreements outright.  There simply wasn't enough standby capacity to fire back up to keep the homes heated. 

And FYI, CA is now re-incentivizing some of their standby NG plants to stay viable, the same ones they had been coercing to shutter their equipment and ops.

My point was and remains: "planning matters". 

blue in dc

February 11th, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^

It isn’t a media narrative.  It is based on an independent assessment by FERC.   It is hardly shocking that you work for a company making tens or hundreds of millions of dollars selling gas turbines that you are pitching the problem as wind turbines so that you can sell your product.

I work on energy issues and have for 30 years so I am not just reading some “media narrative”.   The data tells us what plants were on line and what plants were off-line.   It is not rocket science to determine that the plants that were off-line were predominantly natural gas units that had not bothered to pay the money to weatherize and that there were significant natural gas availability issues.

Directly from the FERC report:

“The February freeze triggered the loss of 61,800 megawatts of electric generation, as 1,045 individual generating units experienced 4,124 outages, derates or failures to start. It severely reduced natural gas production, with the largest effects felt in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, where combined daily production declined to an estimated 20 billion cubic feet per day. That is a reduction of more than 50 percent compared to average production from February 1-5.  

Today’s assessment points to freezing of generator components and fuel issues as the top two major causes of generator outages, derates or failures to start. The identified causes in the preliminary report affected generating units across all fuel types.  Of the 1,045 generating units affected, 57 percent were natural gas-fired units that primarily faced fuel-supply challenges.”

https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-nerc-staff-review-2021-winter-freeze-recommend-standards-improvements

Hard to believe that someone working for a company that profits from a given narrative is selling that narrative.  Multiple other independent studies have come to a different conclusion.
 

HighBeta

February 11th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^

"the plants that were off-line were predominantly natural gas units that had not bothered to pay the money to weatherize and that there were significant natural gas availability issues".

1) OK: my partner has been in the NG power business since 1976; we know all the owners and operating engineers of those plants - from day zero of their existence throughout their entire operating history across several continents.

2) Those off-line plants had had their "take or pay" agreements terminated by the regulators. The operators were told that other providers were coming or were fully online to replace them.

3) I am not pitching the problem as a wind turbine problem, at all. I am a fan of that business, no pun intended. The problem was in the failure of the regulators to *plan properly* for the possible failures of their primary energy sources. You need a belt to go with your suspenders - just in case ... They should have kept the "take or pay" agreements in effect and the NG flowing to same for another few years until they had a much better crafted fail-over, redundancy plan. This was a tragic planning failure.

Without that "take or pay" arrangement, there is no reason to exist as a power producer; the owner has to send everyone home, shutter ops, disconnect the feeder lines, and dismantle the machinery. You don't weatherize a plant that is shuttered, you first mothball it, then once the crews are available, you dismantle it (a lengthy process); finally you sell the modules/components to interested parties in other locales that are still operating. And that is what was happening and did happen. I could send you the details in the engineering reports but there's no point because you have your beliefs -- as do I.

You can question my motives, my character, etc.. You can think I make a living from "selling a narrative" - but before this gets any more "ad hominem" --- we should disengage. We are clearly never going agree, never going to convince the other.

Please just enjoy the rest of your day and evening.

Regards.

blue in dc

February 11th, 2022 at 5:07 PM ^

I absolutely agree that the Texas electricity system is very poorly formulated and that the owners and operators had no reason to weatherize, but I think we may be talking past each other about two different sets of plants.

You are referring to plants that used to be under take or pay contracts and have not survived because absent take or pay contracts you have to compensate for capacity (as most other deregulated power markets do).   You bid into a capacity auction and if you are a winning bid, you get capacity payments.   That ensures you stay around (and weatherize). The plants referred to in the FERC report are not shuttered plants.   They were operating before and after the freeze.   

Your partner did his job, but if he was pitching energy storage, that would have been his solution.   If he had been pitching weatherization retrofits for existing turbines, that would have been his solution. 

When you sell hammers, your job is to convince your customer that there problem is a nail.

HighBeta

February 11th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^

We only know jet engines, yep. You want one, we've got you covered.

We have to leave it to others whose expertise is in storage to meet the storage needs as identified by a regulatory/planning body. Some group of regulators/planners regulated/planned *very* poorly.

Remember what I posted north of here: "I am a strong lobbyist for a *well planned* shift away from fossil power."

And now back to the originally scheduled conversation about electric cars ...

 

HighBeta

February 11th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^

Thank you ...

Also. The narrative that the remaining  NG plants were not "winterized" is zero logical too. NG power plants use ground tethered jet engines which, like a commercial jet sitting overnight in a frozen airport, fire up with a very simple, highly reliable ignition process followed by an 8 to 10 minute warm up. Easy...

Too many engines NG were completely decommissioned by the power regulators. 

We will get there, we will transition over, but we need to be smart engineers in planning the gradual migration. 

- end of monologue

KC Wolve

February 10th, 2022 at 10:07 PM ^

Bought a Model 3 around years ago. Have a charger in my garage. I’ve used another charger 3 times. Once just to see how it worked. I’ve only rotated the tires and added washer fluid. I hate driving my wife’s ICE car and will never go back. The instant acceleration and one pedal driving are not something I hope to do without in any future car. Unless you are a road warrior, you are fine. There are chargers everywhere. I went to the UM/Nebraska game from KC. Was planning on using the Lincoln supercharger Sunday morning after the game for the trip back and was pleasantly surprised to see a charger in my hotel lot. Plugged in when we arrived and it was full by the time the game was over for like $6. I moved it to give someone else the spot and we left for home in the morning first thing.  

BlueGoM

February 10th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^

It's likely the net benefit of EV, environmentally is still worthwhile, although not as great as people think.   There's still operating costs (financial and environmental) in creating the vehicles of course.  Demand for lithium for batteries is surging and that requires new mining operations ,etc. and so on.

Of course if you drive in an area powered by coal or a nat gas powerplant it's questionable if your EV is helping or hurting.

But IMO the real reason car manufacturers are pushing EV isn't the environment, they want electric  controlled cars so they can move to a subscription based model of car "ownership" so you'll be continually paying them for software updates, etc.   See  Toyota did this:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/12/22831105/toyota-subscription-remote…

You'll need to have the latest software - for safety, of course.  Also once cars become fully automated you'll still find yourself paying car insurance (never mind you're not actually driving the car).

But then again I'm 100% convinced we're heading into a technocratic dystopian nightmare, so take my concerns with a grain of salt.

mgoblue_in_bay

February 10th, 2022 at 11:38 PM ^

But IMO the real reason car manufacturers are pushing EV isn't the environment, they want electric  controlled cars so they can move to a subscription based model of car "ownership" so you'll be continually paying them for software updates, etc.   See  Toyota did this:

Isn't this independent of ICE vs EV? maybe an argument like "EV batteries allow the car to have more always on electronic features", or is there something else I'm missing?

OldSchoolWolverine

February 10th, 2022 at 11:36 PM ^

Am an engineer, and work on my own cars, and I abhor the thought of the gasoline engine going away. Yet, I reserved a Fisker Ocean. It will be our second car, for local trips. If you want to reserve one, here is the referral code 8RF66I.   that is the letter i, not the number one.  Costs $250 to reserve but you can change mind and get refunded all but a $25 admin fee.  Might even be able to sell the reservation at some point, as a buddy sold his Bronco reservation for 10K.

OldSchoolWolverine

February 11th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^

I already have two Volvo SUVs a 2005 and a 2021.. although they are devout fuel pigs, they are tanks pre 2013, and they were the most durable car, until they went cheap recently.

Fiskers are half the price of the other two, and the Ocean is SWEET.  Biggest caveat is that I won't be able to work on it...Fisker even made it so the hood can't be opened except by their techs. 

LSA84

February 10th, 2022 at 11:39 PM ^

There are a lot of comments in this thread along the lines of "a friend has a Tesla" or "someone told me..."  Well, I am a Tesla owner - my second one.  I have 4 friends who own a Tesla.  Here are the facts:

1. It is the best car I have ever owned, period.  Other than my iphone, it may be the best quality thing I've ever owned.  I had my first one for 3 years - only one visit to the shop for a minor issue.  My second is going 4 years old - NEVER been in the shop. 

2. My friends LOVE their Teslas.  None of us will ever own a gasoline-powered car again.

3. While it's true that it takes energy and raw materials to build one, the same is true of a internal combustion car. If you power your car with solar, the costs, both in money and environment, are FAR lower. Further, gas-powered cars do not reflect the additional costs to society to the environment, but we all pay for it.

4. The current system is unsustainable, and we will eventually run out of oil.  HINT:  we're using it far faster than Mother Earth is making it.

5. While it is true that it's more difficult to drive long distances, that will change as technology advances.

6. There are a lot of great things about electric cars that don't include the environment.  One is that I don't need to stop at a gas station.  Sure, it's only 5 minutes once or twice a week, but I don't need to do it.  Another is that you never need an oil change, tune-up, or radiator fluid. Never.  And, perhaps best of all, they're so quiet. You don't realize how much noise an engine makes until you don't have it.

It's still early days, but electric cars are the future.  And maybe Tesla has some QA issues as they've gone from making 50,000 a year to making a million, but they'll get it sorted.  If they don't, so what?  Ford, GM, Audi, BMW, VW, Mercedes, etc... they know how to make cars, and they're going electric, too.  If you don't get one, you're missing out.

tsabesi

February 11th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^

Anecdotal evidence yes but I'll add my 0.02$. 

1. Owned a Model Y for a year thought we'd live with 1 ICE and 1EV for the next decade or so, we'll almost certainly buy an EV when we replace our other car.

3. Depends on energy mix in your area but based on the most recent study I've seen the current US grid makes EVs carbon neutral at 5-15k miles of driving, so lifetime carbon is much lower. The environmental impact of mining is harder to measure but Lithium, Cobalt, and Nickel will all be recycled at high recoveries.

6. Immediate acceleration when merging or passing, and running AC when storing groceries or plants and with more stops on errands, travelling with the dog, or just being able to sit in a temperature controlled cabin without idling are huge quality of life improvements as well.