August 22nd, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Talks have happened that do not involve any of the key stakeholders? Does not sound like much more than preliminary work to me.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Plausible deniability for the "official" representatives. No one is at risk of lawsuits (or FOIA) if it's just proxies meeting. Oregon needs to be the party to initiate contact anyway. USCLA both reached out to the Big Ten, but it was a well kept secret until the end. The real story, if true, is not that Oregon is reaching out but that someone from the Big Ten is agreeing to talk about details.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
Oregon as well as Washington talks would not be a surprise. Whomever within the Big Ten is leaking this, does it at their own risk.
I'd be more surprised if talks with Oregon and Washington are not happening.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Yeah, I thought this was the case soon after the USCLA announcement. At least, we know Oregon and Washington reached out at this point.
To crg's point, what would be meaningful here is if the B1G is now more seriously engaging after initially putting them on hold to "wait for" / pursue ND.
August 22nd, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
Brett McMurphy said the only thing he had been hearing from insiders about Notre Dame after the USC/UCLA news first came out is that they will be joining the BIG10.
August 22nd, 2022 at 7:53 PM ^
I found the video. Starts at 3:25:
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^
San Francisco and Seattle are the two big available Cable markets not in the SEC or B10.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
And Phoenix (Arizona State) with a 5 million metro population
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
Well they don’t seem to have denied the involvement of Oregon’s most important stakeholder.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
No real inside knowledge, but I have thought all along that these schools are continually talking about realignment through proxies, lawyers, agents, etc. Two years ago USC AD Brohm(sp?) warned the PAC 12 that he was expecting to be paid like Alabama and Ohio State, and that he would definitely exit the conference to achieve that. Would he have stuck his neck out like that without knowing he had a landing spot? I would bet there is endless scheming among all the usual suspects in college football.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
There are MANY universities "initiating" conversations about joining B1G. Ain't gonna happen though (at least not right now, UofO is down the list a bit)
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Underestimate Phil Knight at your own risk.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
Yes, he will not let Oregon fall...
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
But he is 84. What is going to happen when he passes away?
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
We're already wearing his shoes, so we don't need his alma mater.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
In Athletics, which is what we're talking about, UO has more pull that UW. If UO goes, UW follows, and the Pac12 is donezo.
ND can stay independent even if the B1G adds all the desirable Pac12 teams. They can schedule all the major media markets between B1G and ACC. No one is going to lock them out, let it go.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
Does UO more pull though? Pretty sure their viewership potential is lower than UW's given Oregon has about half the population of Washington.
An analysis done by an Oregon blog had Oregon 3rd in PAC12 with Washington 2nd in terms of number of games with 1M viewers in the past five years.
And that's what the networks care about, which is what the conferences care about when evaluating teams to add. Pretty sure all the analysis I've seen says UW is more valuable as an addition.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
It'll be fascinating to see how this all shakes out if the B1G is really going to get to 20 teams.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
I wouldn't mind seeing invitations publicly extended soon to UW, UO and Stanford to begin in a few years... with a fourth opening "under consideration". See who jumps to be that last spot.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
As someone who's mostly hostile to expansion, I'd be kinda more ok with this because it means some preservation of west coast football.
Also, if there is a 20 team league, I hope we adopt a 3-4-2 schedule - 3 schools you see for 4 years (some rivals will remain in your 3 forever), 4 schools you play home-and-homes with, and 2 schools you only see once in 2 years. After 2 years, you've seen 11 schools, after 4, all 19. And the 8 schools you only saw once will become your home-and-homes, unless they become your 4-year opponents.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
The likely move is to a 10-game in-conference schedule, so you could go 3-7-7 (i.e., 18-team conference, Michigan with 3 permanent rivals plus 7 teams that alternate each year).
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
After 2 years, you've seen 11 schools, after 4, all 19.
Funny that there is a setup that allows you to see every rival school in a 20-team conference, but in our current 14-team conference we'll sometimes go four years without playing a team.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
The NCAA recently changed their rules around having a conference champion for leagues with 12 or more teams; that's what opened up the possibility for these alternate approaches.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
I think Rutgers has a larger football following than Stanford. They are a great add for Olympic sports but for football dollars you just add another Purdue/Northwestern to suckle from the teat.
Expansion sucks and I am fully in that camp now. You think a 18 year hiatus is rough wait until we had 6 more competitive teams. Admins making more cash, more commercials, less games with our secondary rivals, etc. If I could wave a wand the Big 10 would be the Big 10<< and still have an expanded playoff. Let the marquee games be in the form of a 12 team playoff.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^
Stanford may not be the most ideal candidate from a football perspective, however it is stronger than some of the current Big Ten members. Add to that their strength in other sports, academic/research qualities, their reinforcement of the West Coast footprint (already announced and prospective), and the fact that this helps to either 1) push ND to finally join a conference or 2) the Big Ten draws another decent option for that last spot - thus locking ND out of the Big Ten for some time... Stanford is a reasonable add.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:00 PM ^
I'm with you on this and your UO/UW comment. Get to 20 teams and another option is split football into old / new B1G. Have a 9-game round robin in your half (grumpsters get their original B1G back), 2 games with the other half, one OOC (who needs much of an OOC schedule with 20 teams?).
August 22nd, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^
I would have thought this as well, but they came out 5th on this list of PAC12 schools in terms of games with over 1M viewers in the past 5 years.
Maybe that's mostly propped up by games against USC, UCLA, ND and other strong non-conf opponents (they regularly schedule other P5 teams in addition to ND), but numbers here look surprisingly good.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Phil Knight is a wild card in this. He has outsized influence at Oregon and the money to cushion Oregon’s lower media value if it comes to that. He’s also not a guy to sit in his hands while the PAC-Whatever implodes.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
He's also 84 years old and you wonder if Nike's relationship with Oregon changes once he passes away. I'd think the school's connection with Knight/Nike is what makes them attractive to the B1G.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
UO Olympic sports are strong, probably strong enough for Nike to subsidize them if necessary. Certain Nike execs are ex-Olympic people as well. I don't see this changing for at least 20 years.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
What can he do to make Oregon more attractive? Is Nike going to subsidize their membership?
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
The NIL implications of adding Phil Knight to the Big Ten are beyond comprehension.
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
Duck!
August 22nd, 2022 at 6:48 PM ^
Goose should have ducked.
(Too soon?)
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
“Oregon initiated preliminary discussions” is the key info here
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
Bigger story (if true) is that the Big Ten is actually talking with them, rather than politely saying "not now".
August 22nd, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
I think it is important to remember that the big realignment moves have been kept quiet until they are done and none of the leaked rumors have materialized.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
This.
IMO, this is a bad sign for Oregon's admission to the B10 for two reasons:
- Phil Knight is their ambassador. Not sure the B10 wants a glorified booster involved so directly and speaks to who really runs the show in Eugene (ie, he's on equal footing as the Pres, regents/BOT, etc). I don't think the B10will see this as a positive.
- This leak. Leaks generally don't happen until it's about to happen and the deal is done. I suspect this is the B10 leaking and that they have no intention in admitting UO at this time.
The folks from the artile in the LA times over the weekend are very active on twitter the last 3 days covering this stuff. They say the goal of the B10 rn is to get 2 more from the PAC12 (Stanford/UW/Cal/UO, very much in that order) so that USC/UCLA have travel partners to alleviate travel burdens. Four more is possible, but not ideal for the B10 at this time. B10 wants ND 1st (but this likely won't happen until 2029 when the next media contracts are up) and Stanford+1 joining with USC now will help that along. FSU and Miami are next up. Then 2 more from the PAC.
Allegedly, Delany pushed hard for UNC the last time around (with Maryland) but they didn't go for it. I'd guess the top of the ACC aside from the FL schools and maybe GT go to the SEC, top of the remains of the Pac12 to the B10. B12 picks the dregs and/or B12 and the remains of the ACC add smaller schools
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
The ND/FSU/Miami/NC thing isn't happening, that's just sports radio blather. B1G + Pac12 have long traditional ties, getting this done makes sense and it will make the usual suspects a lot of money.
August 22nd, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
There is no way the ACC can compete with their current contract. In five years, they will be so behind everyone else. By the end of their media deal in 2036, they will look like Div II schools. At a minimum, the ACC will use dissolving the conference as a threat to ESPN to renegotiate their TV deal. The ACC schools are going to be in play in short order. They only need half of the conference to agree to it. FSU/Miami/NC/Clem are yes votes for sure. VA is a likely target for another major conference and a probable yes. There are 5 of the 7 votes you need to end it. GT & Duke will likely be of value to another conference, so there are your 7.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
Please no.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Why no? It's pretty obvious that a league based on the Midwest/East wouldn't just randomly add 2 teams isolated on the West Coast. There will end up being 3ish more West Coast teams to balance everything out, and there should be. While Portland in and of itself isn't a big market, the entire West Coast is -- and if you steal, say, 5 of the biggest West Coast programs, you've locked down a large chunk of the country in terms of viewership, recruiting, TV revenue etc.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
While Portland, OR (closest metropolis) is not considered a "large" TV market, it does come in at 21st. To make the West Coast expansion really work, there is the need to add additional teams out there. Hence the constant rumors about Washington, Stanford, and Oregon. Those teams would 'lock up' the remaining significant TV markets on the West Coast.
What I find interesting is there is very little to no chatter about either of the Arizona schools given that Phoenix is 11 on the list and one of the last large TV markets available. (Florida and Texas do not provide any viable solutions, though I highly doubt that one would be turned away if a solution presented itself)
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
Seems to be a lot of hints/rumors (possibly being driven by the University of Arizona camp) that if UW & UO leave the "four corner" schools (AZ, ASU, Utah & Colorado) may go to the Big XII together.
The Arizona camp wants it mostly for bball.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Poor damn Wazzu, OSU and Cal. Especially Wazzu - they invested in their program and have won on the field but somehow are less valuable than UCLA or UofA (not to mention Rutgers)
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
I agree with you about Phoenix. And here is how the Big Ten might approach TX, FL, and GA.
Gene Smith said the FB schedule will become a year-to-year function rather than the current long-term method. I will suggest that the Big Ten might attempt to make this easier by establishing some pre-arranged matchups that will involve one OOC school (i.e. TCU) playing a rotation of Big Ten teams in a neutral site. The recent buzz about the TCU AD visiting Chicago provoked this idea.
In 2018 OSU played TCU in Dallas and the ratings were spectacular. It was the highest rated game with 7.58 million viewers (ABC, 8 pm) and easily beat second place Texas vs USC (Fox) which garnered only 2.?? million, about one third.
TCU would likely enjoy the exposure and the payday, playing a different Big Ten opponent every year without having to travel, and NBC might like the ratings on Saturday nights.
Maybe this arrangement would also work with Clemson in Atlanta or FSU in Jacksonville, although those teams are very successful with home game crowds. But they both might warm to the idea of regular Big Ten opponents near home.
For the Big Ten this would get them into the southeastern and southwestern advertising footprint on a regular basis. Until the ACC breaks up, the Big Ten has no other way to intrude into that territory.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
University of Arizona: meh (although they are an AAU member academically).
Arizona St, though the bigger name of the two, isn't an academic fit.
And the theory seems to be that the two of them are a package that state leadership would very likely block being separated.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Portland metropolitan will be a T20 market in the next few years and will continue to grow for at least the next 20 years.
August 22nd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
Quack quack