Offseason Speculation: What is Gardner's Ceiling?
Despite the fact that it was a relatively small sample of QB play this season, Gardner looked pretty damn good at times, including an impressive performance against the mighty South Carolina defense. What do you think his ceiling is? Let's say the levels are:
-All B1G QB
-All American QB
-Heisman Finalist
-Heisman Winner
-Top 15 pick
-Top 5 pick
-Number 1 overall pick
Obviously, a wide range of possibilities, but this is assuming again, an optimistic ceiling, not a prediction of what he'll necessarily turn out to be. Personally, I think his ceiling is somewhere around All-American/Heisman Finalist, a lot will also depend on his redshirt and the success of team the next couple years.
In case you need a reminder:
February 25th, 2013 at 11:47 PM ^
All Big-10 qb that is in the heisman talks but still outside the top 10 in the heisman race at the end.
February 25th, 2013 at 11:58 PM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 12:03 AM ^
If you look at what Michigan QBs have done in recent years during their junior seasons (I am looking at DG as a junior, I realize he might not be), there is good reason for optimism:
Elvis Grbac (1991): 165/254 (65.0%) 2,085 yds 25 TD 6 INT 161.7 Eff
Todd Collins (1993): 189/296 (63.9%) 2,509 yds 17 TD 7 INT 149.3 Eff
Tom Brady (1998): 214/350 (61.1%) 2,636 yds 15 TD 12 INT 131.7 Eff
Drew Henson (2000): 131/217 (60.4%) 1,852 yds 16 TD 4 INT 152.7 Eff
John Navarre (2002): 248/448 (55.4%) 2,905 yds 21 TD 7 INT 122.2 Eff
Chad Henne (2006) 203/328 (61.9%) 2,508 yds 22 TD 8 INT 143.4 Eff
Denard Robinson (2011) 142/258 (55%) 2,173 yds 20 TD 15 INT 139.7 Eff, 1,173 rushing yds, 16 rushing TD
February 26th, 2013 at 12:40 AM ^
15 TDs and 12 INTs. Guh, Brady sucks. That guy just doesn't have what it takes to be an elite QB. Time to move onto the kid. Henson's gonna be a superstar in the NFL. We'd might as well cut our losses with this Brady bum and turn the keys over to our future franchise quarterback.
I can't wait to tell my grandkids about how I was there to see Drew Henson quarterback Michigan. In person.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:40 AM ^
Yeah, I thought it was kind of ironic that Brady's is probably the least-impressive stat line up there.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:11 PM ^
Of all those guys listed, Brady had the least amount of game experience entering his junior year with Todd Collins second.
February 26th, 2013 at 3:19 AM ^
Ugh. Still too soon as far as I'm concerned. Henson was (in my subjective opinion) maybe the best quarterback I've ever watched play at the college level. It's really sad that he made a dumb decision that ended up ruining his career. The Brady ESPN documentary has some interviews with him that make me really feel for the guy.
February 26th, 2013 at 11:24 AM ^
If I had to choose between Henson and Gardner, I'd take Gardner every day. Gardner is faster, more athletic, an inch taller, and leagues more mature. Henson might have had a bit more arm strength, but accuracy-wise I think they are comparable, and Henson didn't really demonstrate the advanced decision-making skills until his third season. I don't mean this as a criticism of Henson, who was a terrific college QB. Rather, I think there are plenty of legitimate reasons to be excited about what Gardner's going to do.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^
Wow you are still sniff some Henson hype. "Best QB ever in college"? WOW. 18TDs vs 4INT in 9 games his senior year (including 3 losses) was decent...but "best ever" holy crap that is a crazy statement.
Drew was horrible up until his junior year, when he was good...but certainly not great.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:15 PM ^
That was Henson's junior year.
February 26th, 2013 at 4:29 PM ^
Henson was pretty damn good his junior year. The three losses included two of the biggest defensive meltdowns (54-51 at Northwestern and 31-28 at Purdue) in Michigan's pre-RR history and a close loss @ UCLA in which Henson did not play due to injury (and which Michigan would have won if not for a bad call that robbed Jeremy Le Suer of a game-sealing pick in the 4th Qtr). About the only loss you can arguably put on Henson from that 2000 season was the Purdue game, in which M led 28-10 at halftime and failed to score in the second half.
February 26th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^
I have always liked Henson, and he had an excellent season in 2000, but suggesting that he was even the best quarterback at Michigan in any time span that includes more than him and John Navarre (and Navarre's senior year was more successful than Hensons) is hogwash.
That said, history has shown us that the Purdue loss in 2000 can't really be assessed to Henson, who was shackled by a coaching staff that frequently got bogged down on offense for long periods of games no matter who was quarterbacking the team. And a defense that was cringe-inducingly awful. If Michigan had fielded a sharp defense in 2000 they would have at the very least won the Rose Bowl and possibly had a shot at Oklahoma in Miami. Even with the offense getting bogged down in the second half against Purdue. 2000 seemed odd when it happened, but it turned out to be the pattern for most Michigan teams for the rest of the Carr era: lots of talent, lots of potential, one or two head-scratching losses every year, and always less offense than the roster suggests they were capable of.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:11 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 12:22 AM ^
morris better be redshirting
February 26th, 2013 at 12:36 AM ^
If said play is somehow the difference between us beating OSU and losing to OSU, I'm okay with figuring out the 2017 QB situation later.
Otherwise, I agree.
February 26th, 2013 at 2:03 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^
That's my wish as well, but crazy things happen and Bellomy was really bad against Nebraska. But here's hoping you are right cause that would be best.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:26 AM ^
John Navarre holds the Michigan record for passing yards in a season with 3,331 in 2003. The Michigan record for TD passes in a season is 25, shared by Grbac ('91) and Henne ('04). So if Gardner matches your prediction, he will break the yardage record and obliterate the TD pass record.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:41 PM ^
Your numbers are off; see my post below. That said, I think you're close. I'd guess about 25 passing TDs, 10 rushing TDs, 3,000 passing yards, 300 rushing yards, and 8 INTs.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
Mine felt a bit high, but then again, he had 6 total tds against Iowa. I wouldn't have predicted that either.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:45 AM ^
But I think he also looked pretty damn good at wr last year too. If he had a decent passing qb throwing to him (I love Denard and all but we know he wasn't the greatest passer) I think he could've been our top guy. Pretty good size speed strength and agility.
A team could take him as a qb but use him as a wr (safety net) if it doesn't work out.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:35 AM ^
I think Gardner has a ceiling of being a 1st round pick and Heisman winner. For this season, I think All-BIG QB is more realistic.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:48 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 2:32 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 3:23 AM ^
I want to say top 15 draft pick, but I have been burned by expecting big improvement from the last few Michigan QB's.
I love Denard but even as a senior he was still making a lot of the errors he made two years before that like not throwing the ball away, or not taking off when he should, and showed little improvement in accuracy.
Forcier didn't learn to let some plays die and throw the ball away either. Sometimes you got amazing plays and a lot of other times needless interceptions. Did not go away the next year when he was a backup.
Chad Henne I thought would be one of the greatest college QBs of all time based on his freshman year along with the expected incremental improvement he would make in the next 3 years and while he was great we never saw as much improvement as might be expected.
Hard as it is, I'm trying to keep expectations very low in my mind and expect that he will be exactly the same player we last saw on the field in the bowl game. Makes it more exciting when I'm wrong (hopes).
February 26th, 2013 at 4:23 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 5:33 AM ^
in terms of what really might happen. i have to say that i was exceptionally impressed with his poise in the pocket and his decision-making on most occasions. also, he is way faster and shiftier than he looks with those long gliding strides. the guy has huge upside.
February 26th, 2013 at 7:14 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 7:22 AM ^
The ceiling is extremely high. He has the size, the arm and is an amazing athlete. That is a really good starting point for a QB. He has one year as a starter and a full off season to get ready. There is no reason to believe he couldn't be a very high draft pick some day going strictly on tangibles. That being said, playing QB and being a combine warrior are two different things. I'm hoping he gets 2 more years because I think we are going to rip people up next year and the year after. I think we may need a little help at WR but the O-line recruiting is getting me really excited for Michigan football.
February 26th, 2013 at 7:42 AM ^
His ceiling is incredibly high, certainly first round draft choice. Heisman is a lot about luck or having a good sob story for the press. Ceiling is also not the same as what we might expect.
I expect really good things, and great things depend on making a few relatively minor improvements as well as decisions outside of his control. Some of his passes last year were a little late, not being a QB coach, i assume that he's still thinking rather than knowing and acting instinctually.
If Michigan can establish a running game and at least one of the receivers steps up, then Devin will likely be making a lot of national media sit up and take notice. I don't have a lot of worries about what Borges wants to do. Looking at what Hoke/Borges did at SDSU suggests that with my above caveats, we're likely to see a prolific and exciting offense. Devin looks like he can run a passing game, including the vertical stretching Borges likes. Devin can both keep a play alive and burn a defense with his legs (and he showed the decision making chops last year to checkdown to his legs or throw it away when necessary). If the coaches feel that Bellomy can be the 2nd string guy, then i think we're also likely to see a little bit of QB designed runs for Devin. Not like Robinson QB running, but using them to keep the defense honest.
Get that redshirt, letting the rest of the team develop around him, and, yes, we might be talking Heisman finalist and very high NFL pick.
February 26th, 2013 at 7:52 AM ^
You forgot All SEC after All American
February 26th, 2013 at 8:24 AM ^
Although after his NFL career, he'll be able to afford something like
February 26th, 2013 at 8:25 AM ^
Granted, it was only four games, so this is not a huge sample, but an average game for Devin Gardner consisted of 14 completions in 23 attempts, 2 passing TDs, one interception and 251 yards per game. Further, we should factor in an average of 9 rushing attempts which, although for very few yards (19), result in at least 1 rushing TD per game from Devin as well.
If he can continue to develop at QB and if he could continue a similar pace at least for much of the season, he would certainly be in the Heisman discussion, although I would be less certain about him necessarily winning it with such numbers (he probably would need to repeat the 314 passing yards of the Iowa game a few times, I would think). This would definitely improve with the continued evolution of the running game and some solid receiving yards being amassed. The ceiling definitely puts him in this territory, I would say. I could see All Big Ten and a decent draft position with a good 2013 campaign definitely though.
February 26th, 2013 at 3:51 PM ^
sh*t. Just a lot of very canny split-second thinking in evidence there. I was sad at the way things ended for Denard, but Nebraska had its silver lining.
February 26th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
I would settle for a solid QB who leads the team to ten regular season victories this year, and beats what is going to once again be the "unstoppable juggernaut" when they come to the Big House in November.
Anything else is a bonus.
February 26th, 2013 at 9:34 AM ^
I think he'll be much improved this year simply from an improved WR corps. He's already got great chemistry with Gallon and Dileo, and I think one of Darboh/Chesson/freshman will give him a nice third option that helps keep the defense playing honest on the others (and possibly open up better matchups for Funchess).
In my mind, the play of the WR corps will be his make-or-break, and I think it'll fall on the "make" side of that.
February 26th, 2013 at 9:40 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 10:34 AM ^
Devin and will be right up there with the best in the B1G next year.
February 26th, 2013 at 11:09 AM ^
Some people are making realistic predictions, some people are actually talking about a true ceiling.
As a realistic prediction, I think Devin is second team All-B1G behind Miller. Taylor Martinez is his only competition, and I believe DG is the better player, and will prove that will a full off-season. Also, I think Michigan will have a better record, and that will dampen the Martinez hype.
But a ceiling? Well, he has the talent to be a Heisman winner, so I guess have to call that his ceiling. I don't believe that will happen, but that's what the word means. And since I NEVER say anything without evidence...
- DG's 2012 passer rating was 161.66. That would have made him the 8th highest QB in the NCAA, and is behind only six teams: 'Bama, Georgia, SJSU, Clemson, and WVU...and ahead of Baylor and Oregon, and far ahead of Johnny Manziel's 155.32.
- His 2.2 passing TDs per game extrapolates to 28.6 for the season. That would have made him #19 in passing TDs in 2012.
- His Yards/Att was 9.7 (!!!) which would have made him #2, behind only Aaron Murray.
- He would have thrown for 3,169.4 yards (extrapolation), making him #29 in the country
- 18.2 rushing TDs would have made him #5 on that list for QBs
He accomplished all that without practicing at QB in the off-season, without a full playback, in an offense that had been designed around a running QB, with an awful interior O-line and almost no threat of a running game. And he did in five games that featured teams ranked 23, 29, 33, 34, and 75 (Iowa-DERP!) in opposing passer rating--not the pushovers some people suggest.
So it's clear he has the talent to be a Heisman contender--especially in 2014--but my prediction for 2013 is second team All-B1G, and I believe he will be drafted in the 2nd round.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^
Who knows. Throw a dart at your list. My prediction is he will be 2nd team all Big Ten. His Heisman chances would be helped if one of the young receivers steps up. As mentioned above, his yards per attempt is fantastic and most experts will tell you that's an important indicator of a good qb.
February 26th, 2013 at 11:53 AM ^
February 26th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^
Now there is a big difference between ceiling (potential) and predictions, before people start getting all crazy.
Ceiling - I think he has the physical tools and the ability to be a top 15 pick, all-B1G, all-american. He is 6'4'' 210lbs, with an NFL arm. He is a long strider who can will be able to outrun most defenders. His accuracy is off at times, but overall I think he has good accuracy. He has the ability to throw on the run, and has great pocket presence. Not to Denard bash, but those are all things that he couldnt do. His decison making is progressing, he sometimes forces throws, but overall is good enough for the college level. I think the progression of his descion making is what will determine his draft status. He reminds me of Vince Young, lets hope he can copy his college succuss, but translate to the NFL alot better.
Prediction - I think he will continue where he left off last season. He will keep putting up good stats and winning games. If he stays healthy, there isnt a game next year were not capable of winning. I would be dissapointed if we were worse than 10-2. He will improve, but I dont predict him to hit his cieling. I think if he didnt improve, he was good enough to be a 3rd-4th round pick. But by the time he enters the draft I expect him to have improved enough to be a 1st-2nd round pick.
February 26th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^
Seriously
February 26th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^
He's not beating out Johnny Football for the Heisman.
However, he can be 1st team All BigTen.
Had he enough starts to qualify this past season, Gardner's QB rating would've placed him 8th in the nation
February 26th, 2013 at 5:33 PM ^
Why not? Devin might not beat Manziel, but it wouldn't shock me at all if someone did. Tim Tebow was the Heisman favorite for two years running after his sophomore-year victory and never won again.
Manziel is a star and will be great, but he's also a target and if he has some bad games again (he had a couple, especially early last year, but avoided scrutiny because he didn't really emerge as a candidate until he beat Alabama) everyone will know about it. It is quite possible that someone like Marcus Mariotta or Braxton Miller or Devin will have a dynamite season on a team that is undefeated or nearly so and eclipse Manziel.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
About a week ago when I was drunk at 2 in the morning I bet $2.50 on Gardner for the Heisman at 40/1. So that is now my expectation. Anything less is unacceptable.
February 26th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
Part of Gardner's ceiling is dependent on how well the weapons around him play.
Henne, Navarre, Henson, and Brady all had NFL-caliber recievers to throw to. Walker, Terrell, Edwards, Breaston, Manningham, Arrington, Avant, etc.
I know Gallon plays bigger than he is but you have to have guys who can stretch the field on a consistent basis. Michigan needs some of its younger players to fill those shoes so Gallon doesn't have to be the vertical guy while Dileo is the underneath guy.
On the bright side, the other thing that the beforementioned QB's had was a beast of a RB to work the playaction pass like Thomas, Perry, Hart, etc. I think Michigan has a guy in Green and also in Smith who can fill that role.
I believe that Gardner has the ability to be an All-American. But the realist in me believes that he'll top out at All-Big 10.
February 26th, 2013 at 6:46 PM ^
Probably some sort of tiled drop ceiling.
February 26th, 2013 at 8:20 PM ^
Ceiling implies the highest I see possible, so I would say Heisman winner is a very remote possibilty. If I am interpretaing ceiling as more along the lines of, "reasonable but optimistic" I would say All-American MAYBE heisman finalist. With that said I think he has an All-BIG season this year.